The Monday Night Football game between the Dolphins and Titans was hard to watch. The high-flying Miami defense continues to be grounded, making Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle almost unplayable with Tua Tagovailoa on the sideline. And the promise of Brian Callahan bringing the Bengals’ pass offense to Tennessee has been a dud, leaving those poor souls who drafted Calvin Ridley wondering if they should move on.
There was one bright spot in an otherwise boring game – the fantasy performance by veteran kicker Nick Folk, who managed to lead all kickers with 24 fantasy points on the day. Folk made five field goals, including three over 50 yards, to finish with one of the two 20-point performances on the week. The other monster game came on the right foot of Younghoe Koo, who nailed a 56-yard try in the closing seconds to give the Falcon a 26-24 win over the Saints.
Although Folk’s performance was memorable and a possible week-winning day, only 1% of Yahoo managers started him, leaving a ton of points on the waiver wire.
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Week 5 Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice
Week 4 Strong Performances From Widely-Available Kickers
Greg Joseph (K – NYG) vs. Dallas: 0% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Joining Folk as a journeyman who kicked five field goals but not for any fantasy manager was Greg Joseph of the New York football Giants. Joseph made all five field goal tries in the Giants’ 20-15 loss to the Cowboys, scoring all of the points for the inept home team. No, I would not recommend picking up Joseph, but that Malik Nabers kid looks pretty darn impressive.
Joshua Karty (K – LAR) vs. Green Bay: 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Joshua Karty posted his first double-digit game of his career against the Bears. It was his third game out of four in which he scored at least nine fantasy points. Unlike Joseph, Karty is someone I am watching and could enter into the streaming conversation, despite a roster percentage of 1%.
Week 4 Dud Performances From Heavily-Owned Kickers
Jake Elliott (K – PHI) @ Tampa Bay: 83% roster percentage on Yahoo
This one really hurt, as Jake Elliott was one of my recommendations to start based on his low K Score. Unfortunately, the game script flipped and the Eagles were down big early, forcing the team to forgo kicks. I imagine a ton of managers will drop Elliott for his bye week this week, but I would recommend adding him back in Week 6.
Week 5 Kicker Rankings
Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | O/U | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
1 | 2 | Harrison Butker | KC | vs. NO | 42 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 29 | TBD |
2 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at PIT | 43 | -2.5 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 30.5 | TBD |
3 | 4 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. TB | 43.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 3 | 19 | 32.5 | Dome |
4 | 6 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. ARI | 49.5 | -7.5 | 25 | 12 | 2 | 31.5 | 81F, Light Wind |
5 | 5 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at CIN | 50.5 | -2.5 | 18 | 26 | 1 | 42.5 | 75F, 8 MPH Wind |
6 | 3 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. BUF | 47.5 | 1 | 13 | 28 | 8 | 50 | Dome |
7 | 7 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. BAL | 50.5 | 2.5 | 18 | 23 | 11 | 54.5 | 75F, 8 MPH Wind |
8 | 9 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | at ATL | 43.5 | 1.5 | 11 | 21 | 16 | 49.5 | Dome |
9 | 16 | Austin Seibert | WAS | vs. CLE | 44.5 | -3.5 | 18 | 17 | 6 | 37.5 | 73F, Chance of Rain |
10 | 8 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at HOU | 47.5 | -1 | 28 | 29 | 20 | 76 | Dome |
11 | 10 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. NYG | -6 | 43.5 | 6 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 64F, Rain, Light Wind |
12 | 19 | Will Reichard | MIN | vs. NYJ | 40.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 24 | 10 | 35.5 | Dome |
13 | 11 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. DAL | 43 | 2.5 | 28 | 5 | 17 | 52.5 | TBD |
14 | 17 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. LV | 36.5 | -2.5 | 17 | 1 | 27 | 42.5 | 83F, Light Wind |
15 | 24 | Jason Sanders | MIA | at NE | 35.5 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 26 | 44 | 64F, Light Wind, Chance of Rain |
16 | 12 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. CAR | 43 | -3.5 | 32 | 16 | 30 | 74.5 | 70F, 17 MPH Wind |
17 | 13 | Matt Prater | ARI | at SF | 49.5 | 7.5 | 18 | 28 | 12 | 65.5 | 81F, Light Wind |
18 | 14 | Blake Grupe | NO | at KC | 42 | -5 | 7 | 30 | 9 | 41 | TBD |
19 | 20 | Brayden Narveson | GB | at LAR | 48 | -3 | 23 | 9 | 3 | 32 | Dome |
20 | 26 | Joshua Karty | LAR | vs. GB | 48 | 3 | 23 | 4 | 18 | 48 | Dome |
21 | 18 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at MIN | 40.5 | 2.5 | 13 | 21 | 22 | 58.5 | Dome |
22 | 21 | Daniel Carlson | LV | at DEN | 36.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 25 | 24 | 53.5 | 83F, Light Wind |
23 | 22 | Matt Gay | IND | at JAC | 46.5 | 2.5 | 28 | 23 | 15 | 68.5 | 79F, Rain, 13 MPH Wind |
24 | 23 | Cam Little | JAC | vs. IND | 46.5 | -2.5 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 54.5 | 79F, Rain, 13 MPH Wind |
25 | 25 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at CHI | 43 | 3.5 | 10 | 21 | 23 | 57.5 | 70F, 17 MPH Wind |
26 | 27 | Greg Joseph | NYG | at SEA | 6 | 43.5 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 91.5 | 64F, Rain, Light Wind |
27 | 15 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at WAS | 44.5 | 3.5 | 27 | 31 | 31 | 92.5 | 73F, Chance of Rain |
28 | 28 | Joey Slye | NE | vs. MIA | 35.5 | -1 | 31 | 2 | 32 | 64 | 64F, Light Wind, Chance of Rain |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency, giving Justin Tucker an RZ EFF score of 2. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of an opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker fantasy football rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) top 10 who could be excellent in Week 5.
Austin Seibert (K – WAS): vs. Cleveland – 1% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
It was a bit of a struggle finding kickers ranked outside the top 10 who have a solid K Score that could lead to a strong finish. Austin Seibert has a history of inaccuracy and the weather in D.C. could be an issue, but otherwise, he looks like a player who could surprise this week with double-digit fantasy points.
Will Reichard (K – MIN) vs. New York Jets: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
It will take a leap of faith to start Will Reichard, a player rostered in only 3% of Yahoo leagues and with just four games under his belt. But those four games have been pretty impressive. A home game against the Jets could be a goldmine for field goals. I anticipate the Jets will struggle to score against the stout Vikings’ defense and the Minnesota offense may have some issues scoring touchdowns against the Jets. Add in the fact he is playing indoors and you have a sneaky play.
Week 4 Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brayden Narveson (K – GB): vs. Minnesota – 2% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 20
- My Rank: 9
- Week 4 Finish: 26
This is a bit of a frustrating one, as the K Score did work out with a possible 10 fantasy points for Brayden Narvenson. However, the rookie missed two kicks, including a chip shot, leaving fantasy managers with just one point.
Jake Elliott (K – PHI): @ Tampa Bay – 91% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 5
- Week 4 Finish: 22
The negative game script for this matchup threw out the chance for Jake Elliott to score field goals, as the Bucs jumped all over the Eagles on Sunday. Better days are ahead for Elliot after his bye week.
Week 5 Waiver Wire Pickups
- Jason Myers (K – SEA) vs. NY Giants – 11% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- Wil Lutz (K – DEN) vs. Las Vegas – 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
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