Hello and welcome to the Week 8 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- The Broncos and Panthers face off in a game that is sure to be buried in the late-afternoon slot on Sunday. Both of these teams lack efficiency on offense, which has hurt their overall volume as they’re both in the bottom 10 in plays per game. Neither team plays quickly, either, ranking in the bottom-half of the league in seconds per play. Denver should have success running the ball against the Panthers as their 47.3% rushing success rate ranks third on the season, so the clock will continue to run the ball. I also think the Broncos’ defense, which ranks in the top five in EPA per play, success rate, EPA per drive, early down success rate, and more, will be sturdy enough to prevent Carolina from scoring more than 10 points. A slow game that features a poor offense facing a strong defense on one side of the ball has me leaning toward the full game under.
- Action: bet under 43.5 (-110 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- This is not your father’s Chiefs team. In the 101 regular-season games he’s fully played, Patrick Mahomes has attempted fewer than 30 pass attempts in 19 of them; four of those 19 games have come in the six games he’s played so far this year. On the season, Kansas City also has just a 0.1% pass rate over expected and they have fluttered above and below the line all year. If they were to finish below 0%, it would be the first time since Mahomes became the starter that the Chiefs were below that mark. Kansas City’s target distribution has also made it so that those involved with the passing game are seeing even less volume. Travis Kelce is the only active Chiefs player with double-digit targets in a single game. While Xavier Worthy did see a season-high eight targets on Sunday, that was also without JuJu Smith-Schuster for the majority of the game. With how thin the tight end position is, you still need to start Kelce, but I am not trusting any other pass-catcher for the Chiefs (nor Patrick Mahomes) in my lineup until we see the volume increase.
- Action: bench all non-Kelce Chiefs involved in the passing game
Running Back Usage
- Ahead of Thursday night’s game, Sean Payton talked about wanting to get Audric Estime more work. Despite a blowout victory, that wasn’t the case as Estime played on only 9% of the team’s snaps and got a total of five opportunities. It actually ended up being the Javonte Williams show as he had his best game of the year, rushing for a season-high 88 yards and two touchdowns. Still, it’s not all his backfield as his running back rush share has fluttered from being in the low 50s to the low 70s. Both Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin are siphoning opportunities from Williams to the point that it’s capping his weekly ceiling. While Williams did have five high-value touches (HVTs) this week, it was just the first week all year in which he was given 100% of the HVTs. Ultimately, I think this is more likely to turn into a full-on committee as Payton has talked up each back at one point or another this season and he doesn’t seem committed to one player. According to our Strength of Schedule tool, the Broncos also have one of the most difficult schedules for running backs the rest of the season.
- Action: sell all Broncos running backs
- Chase Brown has officially taken over as the RB1 in Cincinnati. Since Week 4, Brown has averaged a very solid 16 opportunities per game. In each of the past two games, Brown has also been above a 55% snap rate and a 60% running back rush share. Subsequently, Zack Moss has dipped below 50% in those two games and hasn’t gotten more than nine opportunities in either game. Surprisingly, Moss still has a slight edge in terms of passing-game usage as he’s run a route on nearly 50% of the team’s dropbacks compared to just 25% for Brown. Accordingly, with how often Cincinnati throws the ball, that will continue to be a valuable role. Moss has also been given more HVTs than Brown in all but one game this year (Week 6). Fortunately, Brown and Moss are the only two Bengals running backs to have played a single snap this season, making each of them worthwhile fantasy assets, but my money is on Brown to hold the most value long-term.
- Action: buy Chase Brown, hold Zack Moss
- After missing two games due to injury, Jaylen Warren has firmly re-entered the conversation of the Steelers’ backfield. Sunday night saw Warren getting a season-high 51% snap rate, 52% routes run rate, and 15 opportunities. Though Sunday night’s final score shows this was a blowout, the Steelers didn’t hold a double-digit lead until early in the fourth quarter. Najee still got his with a season-high 21 carries, finding the end zone and recording over 100 rushing yards for the second straight game. That said, in the two games without Warren, Harris’ snap count rose to 69% and 74%, but it hasn’t gone above 60% in any game that Warren has played. Over the past two weeks, the HVTs have also been split evenly between Warren and Harris with each getting seven total. If I were to pour some cold water on this it would be with the fact that Cordarrelle Patterson hasn’t played since Week 4 and he’ll (begrudgingly) be involved when he returns to action. I do think that Russell Wilson starting gives the running backs the most value as he’s not a threat to run the ball like Justin Fields is. That’s a big reason why I’m buying Warren right now given how much more involved in the passing game he is.
- Action: sell Najee Harris, buy Jaylen Warren
Wide Receiver Usage
- Entering the season, there was a certain expectation that production from Packers wide receivers would be a bit of a roller coaster. Well, they haven’t disappointed. Currently, Jayden Reed leads the team with an average of 13.5 Half-PPR points per game. Despite recording only two catches for 10 yards this past week, Reed remains a must-start. So, let’s move a little further down the depth chart, focusing on Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks. Doubs feels like the most consistent at this point given he’s run a route on over 70% of the team’s dropbacks in every game he’s played. He did earn a season-high 10 targets on Sunday, but otherwise, the usage has been sporadic with him earning fewer than five targets in three other games. The other two, Watson and Wicks, split playing time on Sunday, each running a route on about 50% of the team’s dropbacks. But, so far this season, Wicks has a 29% targets per route run rate (leads the team), which is nearly double Watson’s 15% rate as he’s only been targeted 14 times all year. Green Bay uses 11 personnel at the league’s 8th-highest rate. Reed and Doubs have solidified their roles while the other two figure to mix in rotationally, but I’m much higher on Wicks’ long-term outlook given the per-route usage. They’ll all still be boom-or-bust given how many guys are competing (I haven’t even mentioned the tight ends), but the booms are higher than you’ll get on a lot of other teams.
- Action: hold Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs, buy Dontayvion Wicks, sell Christian Watson
- In the first game with Davante Adams on the Jets, he and Aaron Rodgers picked up right where they left off. Adams ran a route on all but one dropback and was tied with Garrett Wilson for the most targets on the team with nine. Adams did only catch three of them for 30 yards, but it’s clear that Rodgers still trusts him enough to want to rekindle that old connection of theirs. The biggest change to Wilson’s play was that he eclipsed a 10-yard average depth of target for the first time this year while Adams was at just five yards in the game. The arrival of Adams meant a step back in usage for both Allen Lazard and Mike Williams. Lazard ran a route on a season-low 63% of dropbacks while being targeted just four times. Williams’ 33% routes run rate was his lowest since Week 1 and it seems like his fantasy value will be highest only if he gets traded to another team. This appears to be a scenario where Adams and Wilson are the 1A and 1B in the rotation with Lazard playing third fiddle (but still has enough contingent value to be worth holding onto, just not starting).
- Action: hold Garrett Wilson, buy Davante Adams, sell Allen Lazard
- Justin Herbert threw for nearly 350 yards, surely a Chargers wide receiver had a great day, right? Right?? Well, not exactly. On Monday night, it was a three-man rotation at receiver between Ladd McConkey (89% routes run, 7 targets) Simi Fehoko (89%, 6), and Josh Palmer (66%, 5). It was actually tight end Will Dissley who led the team with 11 total targets, becoming the first Chargers player to record double-digit targets in a game. Fehoko has played a much more downfield role as his average depth of target has been above 11 yards in every game he’s been targeted. In any case, I’m still holding out hope that McConkey can turn into a viable flex option since his 27.5% first-read target share leads the team (according to Fantasy Points Data). Another bright spot is that the Chargers had a positive pass rate over expected for the second-straight week, so maybe there’s a chance that trend continues and the volume stays there. Herbert is doing it all, now he just needs it to translate down to his receivers.
- Action: hold Ladd McConkey, sell all other Chargers wide receivers
Tight End Usage
- Over the last two games, Jonnu Smith has actually turned in some valuable fantasy production, hauling in 12 catches for 158 receiving yards and a score. The 19.1 Half-PPR points that Smith scored on Sunday nearly matched the 20.9 Half-PPR points he had scored in his first five games combined. That said, Smith has run a route on more than 50% of dropbacks in each of the last two games, something he only did once in the first four games. Another hesitation I have with trusting that this recent production will continue is the looming return of Tua Tagovailoa. In the past two seasons with Tua as quarterback, the Dolphins have targeted tight ends at an 11.9% rate and 8.9% rate, both the lowest in those two years. I had some optimism about Smith prior to the season that quickly went away, and now I find myself even more confused. In the end, I’m more skeptical of the increased usage and think it’s more likely he’s phased back out of the offense when Tua returns.
- Action: sell Jonnu Smith
- Once the most divisive player in fantasy football, Kyle Pitts has now turned into… a reliable starter? Let’s take a closer look. First, his route participation is exceptional — his 79% routes rate ranks second in the league among all tight ends. After a slow usage start, Pitss now has an 18% target share (, good for third-highest on the Falcons in that stretch. What has me most encouraged is how he’s getting used. His 7.8-yard average depth of target is by far the lowest in his career, helping give him a 68% catch rate this season (by far the highest of his career). Atlanta should continue to pass the ball a ton, and Pitts should continue to be a beneficiary.
- Action: buy Kyle Pitts (he says with trepidation knowing how many times he’s been burned before)
Quick Hops
- In the first game without Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby saw nine high-value touches, which is the most for any Jaguars running back in a game this season. It seems like Jacksonville still prefers D’Ernest Johnson in passing situations as he’s run a route on at least 50% of dropbacks the past two weeks, but Bigsby likely has earned himself more work moving forward and could be a viable flex play.
- Zach Charbonnet played on a season-high 55% of snaps in a game that Kenneth Walker played. That said, Walker did enter the game with a questionable tag due to an illness, so I don’t think this means you should immediately plunge Charbonnet into your starting lineup.
- With Amari Cooper being traded away, Cedric Tillman saw a massive bump in usage. His 12 targets led the league in Week 7 and his 82% routes run rate was easily a season-high. I’d only prefer to start him if Jameis Winston is the quarterback, but he’s certainly worth an add.
- The weekly volume may not always be there (see the section on the Packers’ receivers I mentioned above), but Tucker Kraft did run a route on a season-high 97% of dropbacks against the Texans.
- Sam LaPorta has just 12 total targets since Week 2. If you’re still starting him, you need to find other options at tight end.