Hello and welcome to the Week 7 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- Two of the faster and volume-heavy teams get to match up this week as the Seahawks visit the Falcons. Both of these teams deploy no-huddle at a top-five rate in the league while also being two of the top-eight teams in neutral-script pass rate. Furthermore, both of these teams rank in the top ten in total points per game for the games they’ve played. I’m looking at the Seattle side of things, though, as I think they match up very well against Atlanta and are coming off of extra rest having played on TNF in Week 6. On early downs, Seattle’s 46.9% success rate ranks sixth-best, while Atlanta’s defense ranks fifth-worst, giving the Seahawks a good chance to get ahead of the sticks early. Atlanta also has one of the worst pass rushes in the league, so Geno Smith should have plenty of time to dissect the Falcons’ secondary. When Atlanta is on offense, they’ll continue to push the ball with pace and should have success moving the ball with their eighth-ranked EPA per play. With the highest total of the week (as of writing), this game should be full of points and I’m betting on Seattle to take advantage of mismatches.
- Action: bet Seahawks team total over 24.5 points (-105 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- Despite getting some of the worst quarterback production, the Cleveland Browns have surprisingly been more pass-heavy than expected. But if you look at their weekly trends, they’ve had a negative PROE in each of the last two games. This tendency is more in line with what we’ve seen from Cleveland in years past. Now, Nick Chubb is in line to make his return in Week 7 against the Bengals, who rank second-worst in rushing EPA per play and worst in rushing success rate this year. And look, the Browns offense has been atrocious, there’s no two ways about it, but I don’t see how it could get much worse (and it could get better if Cleveland finally moves off of starting Deshaun Watson). Moreover, Jerome Ford is now considered week-to-week with a hamstring injury, and he’s handled 50% of the Browns’ running back rushes so far this year. I don’t expect Chubb to get a full workload in his first game back, but I think what it would take to acquire him is at the lowest it might be for several weeks.
- Action: buy Nick Chubb
Running Back Usage
- For the first time this year, 6th-round rookie Kimani Vidal was active for the Los Angeles Chargers. This came on the back of Gus Edwards being placed on Injured Reserve. That said, JK Dobbins still dominated the workload with a season-high 27 opportunities and a 73% snap share. Dobbins is still the primary guy, but there are a couple of reasons to be optimistic about Vidal moving forward. First, he was given three high-value touches in the game (compared to four for Dobbins) and Edwards has just four such touches all year. Second, Vidal ran a route on 21% of dropbacks while Dobbins ran a route on a season-low 37% of dropbacks. This is noteworthy because the Chargers also had a positive pass rate over expected for the first time this year. In a standalone week, this may not mean much, but coming out of the bye and doing so when facing one of the better pass defenses in the league has caught my attention. Ultimately, Dobbins will remain the lead back, but the Edwards injury combined with some solid usage in his first game has me buying into Vidal.
- Action: buy Kimani Vidal, hold JK Dobbins
- On Sunday, it went slightly under the radar that Cardinals running back James Conner suffered an ankle injury against the Packers. This led to season-low marks in usage for Conner and opened up the door for Emari Demercado to step in. Demercado played a season-high 53% of snaps and was given 11 total opportunities. Most encouraging is that five of those 11 opportunities were high-value touches. Despite Conner’s injury, rookie Trey Benson still struggled to see the field with just a 19% snap rate. He’s been given 12 (Week 2) and nine (Week 4) opportunities previously but those were two blowout games. Notably, Demercado also ran a route on 53% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks against Green Bay, which is the second-highest mark for a Cardinals running back in a single game this season. If Conner were to miss time, Demercado is the clear number one option with Benson likely just filling in
- Action: buy Emari Demarcado, sell Trey Benson
- The New York Jets have had a whirlwind of a month so far. On Monday night, the Jets had their first game with Todd Downing calling plays and Breece Hall was a massive beneficiary. Hall set season-high marks in snap rate (86%), routes rate (76%), carries (18), and rushing yards (113). It was getting worrisome for Hall, who was coming off of back-to-back single-digit fantasy point weeks, but this has seemingly righted the ship. I don’t suspect the Davante Adams trade to impact Hall’s usage — in fact, it should hopefully raise the floor of the offense to the point where Hall has more scoring opportunities. Obviously, Hall’s increased usage meant a decline in usage for Braelon Allen, who had his second-lowest snap rate of the season. But, he still remains a hold and one of the more valuable handcuffs as Isaiah Davis (heard of him?) is the only other running back to get a touch this season (he has three carries total).
- Action: buy Breece Hall, hold Braelon Allen
Wide Receiver Usage
- During the Titans’ bye week, head coach Brian Callahan mentioned that he’s “Gotta do a better job of finding ways to get Calvin [Ridley] the ball.” He tried to do just that as Ridley was targeted a season-high eight times. I say try because Ridley didn’t catch a single one of them. In fact, his only yardage came on a nine-yard reverse carry. Ridley still ran a route on a team-high 77% of dropbacks and has been below the 75% mark just once this year. After the game, Callahan doubled down, saying “We have to find ways to get him involved” in reference to Ridley. Surely, this isn’t all on Ridley, but if eight targets against a bottom-10 defense won’t do it then I’m not sure what will. In terms of the other receivers, DeAndre Hopkins‘ usage has slightly risen in consecutive weeks, topping out at a season-high 60% route rate. Still, he’s averaging just under six targets per game in the last three weeks. No Titans player is averaging over six targets per game, an unusable level for fantasy football.
- Action: sell all Titans wide receivers
- The Chicago Bears offense has been humming lately with Caleb Williams continuing to improve. While it has been against subpar competition, he’s had his full slate of weapons with Keenan Allen back in the mix for the last three games. Since he returned, Allen, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze are the only three wide receivers to have run a route for the Bears and all of them are above an 80% routes run rate. Regretfully, it seems like they’re cannibalizing each other’s opportunities as DJ Moore‘s 25% target share over that span is the highest with Allen and Odunze down at 18% and 14%, respectively. Those target shares amount to just 4.7 targets per game and 3.7 targets per game for Allen and Odunze, which isn’t start-worthy. After the game, coach Matt Eberflus said “Keenan Allen is always open…he’s an exciting player.” So, as much as the fantasy community may want the rookie Odunze to eclipse him on the depth chart, that seems unlikely as long as Allen is healthy. Allen’s 23.1% first-read target share (per Fantasy Points Data) narrowly trails Moore and is far above Odunze’s 15.4% rate. When they return from their Week 7 bye, Moore is the only one I’d consider starting on a weekly basis with Allen being a flex player, but Odunze is just a bench stash for now.
- Action: hold DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, sell Rome Odunze
- The Ravens have one of the most explosive passing attacks, ranking second in explosive pass rate at 10.4%. Does that mean there’s value to be found in the Ravens wide receiver room outside of Zay Flowers? Well, not really. Only one other Ravens receiver, Rashod Bateman, is running a route on more than 40% of the team’s dropbacks this season. Bateman, though, is only averaging 4.3 targets per game and has just one game with more than five targets. He also has a team-leading 13.5-yard average depth of target. While he may hit on one of those explosive plays every once in a while, it won’t be enough to trust putting into a starting lineup. Finally, with one of the lowest pass rates in the league, the volume simply won’t be there to sustain any sort of floor for these pass catchers.
- Action: buy Zay Flowers, sell all other Ravens wide receivers
Tight End Usage
- Evan Engram returned to action for the first time since Week 1 and was heavily involved out of the gate. Engram caught all ten of his targets for 102 yards. He ran a route on 70% of the team’s dropbacks, an encouraging mark to hit for Engram. The Jaguars were in a negative game script for most of the game, but with how poor their defense is I would expect that to be the case often for this team. If Engram found his way to your waiver wire during his time being injured, he should immediately be added with top-10 tight end expectations.
- Action: buy Evan Engram
- With Tommy Tremble sidelined with a concussion, Ja’Tavion Sanders stepped up to have his best day of the year so far. He caught five of his seven targets for 49 yards. One of those targets also came in the red zone as well and Sanders now has back-to-back weeks with 15% target shares and a routes run rate of 68%. Certainly not elite, but decent numbers for a team that will surely continue to throw the ball a lot. If you’re looking for a bye-week fill-in, Sanders is a serviceable option.
- Action: add Ja’Tavion Sanders
Quick Hops
- Since returning from a two-game absence, Kenneth Walker III is averaging 7.7 high-value touches per game (second-most in that span). With how much he’s used in the passing game (running a route on 54% of dropbacks) and how often Seattle passes the ball, he’s a top-eight running back the rest of the way.
- Tyrone Tracy has 20 and 23 total opportunities in the two games without Devin Singletary. Some have speculated that Tracy could hold on to the starting job when Singletary returns and he has certainly deserved it.
- Jalen McMillan returned to the Buccaneers’ lineup in Week 6, but only ran a route on 10% of the team’s dropbacks. Meanwhile, Sterling Shepard ran a route on a season-high 80% of the team’s dropbacks. He was targeted four times but also given four carries. With how often Tampa Bay passes the ball, Shepard should be rostered everywhere.
- Juwan Johnson‘s route rate has risen in each of the last five consecutive games. With the Saints likely missing Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed on Thursday night, he’s a solid tight-end streaming option this week.
- Last week, David Njoku had an injury scare but ended up playing on Sunday. In the game against the Eagles, he recorded a 30.4% target share, the highest among all tight ends in the league (per JJ Zachariason). Now that Amari Cooper is out of the building, it’s wheels up for Njoku.