Hello and welcome to the Week 5 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- This week we get our first game across the pond as the Vikings and Jets visit London. These teams likely won’t give Londoners a ton of fireworks as they are the first (Vikings) and eighth (Jets) best defenses by EPA per play allowed. On top of that, as you can see above, these are also two teams that play at an extremely slow pace, averaging over 38 seconds between plays in neutral-script situations. While the Vikings’ offense has shocked many people, the Jets’ offense has struggled to get its wheels off the ground (that’s an airplane joke). Both of these defenses are also in the top eight in pressure rate. Neither quarterback, though, has been particularly great against pressure. According to Next Gen Stats, Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold are averaging -0.39 EPA per dropback (12th) and -0.65 EPA per dropback (24th) when facing pressure, respectively. The game total has already dropped two full points since it opened, but I still like the under as a bet here with the defensive strengths and slow play style of each team.
- Action: bet under 40.5 (-110 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- The Browns are now one of just three teams to have a positive pass rate over expected in all four games this season. Unfortunately, that hasn’t translated to fantasy production as Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy rank as WR44 and WR39 in half PPR leagues, respectively. If you scroll down to the wide receiver chart (and pull out a microscope) you’ll see Cooper in the top-right portion of the chart as his 0.68 WOPR ranks 9th among receivers while he’s running a route on 94% of the team’s dropbacks. Unfortunately, he has a -16.0% catch rate over expectation (according to Next Gen Stats). Recently, there has also been some speculation that Cooper could be a target for the receiver-needy Chiefs, in which case Cooper’s value would skyrocket. I also believe there’s a nonzero chance that Deshaun Watson is benched in favor of Jameis Winston, in which case the value of all Browns pass-catchers would rise. Jeudy remains a hold for me with those trade rumors floating and he would be the most immediate beneficiary. Finally, there’s a chance David Njoku was dropped while he’s been hurt and it sounds like he could return to practicing this week, in which case he’s worth adding.
- Action: buy Amari Cooper, hold Jerry Jeudy, add David Njoku
Running Back Usage
- Long gone are the days of workhorse backs, so now the best backfields for fantasy football are ones that focus usage on just two backs, and we have that going on in Tennessee. While their offense has been inefficient on its best day, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are the only running backs to have gotten a snap for the Titans this season. It’s a true 1A (Pollard) and 1B (Spears) situation, which makes it that much more appealing to target. Let’s start with Pollard, who has seen a 60% snap rate in every game so far this season. The best part is that he’s used consistently when he’s on the field as he’s had at least 20 opportunities in three of four games this year. He’s averaging a really solid 17.9 expected PPR points per game, but he hasn’t hit his full potential with an average of 3.4 PPR points under expected per game. On to Spears, who hit a 40% snap share for the second time on Monday night while also getting a season-high 17 opportunities. Spears’ most likely path to real work and production is an injury to Pollard. But, even with Tennessee’s offense lacking real upside, he remains one of the best running back handcuffs at the moment.
- Action: buy Tony Pollard, hold Tyjae Spears
- You can take the Falcon out of Arthur Smith, but you can’t take the Arthur Smith out of the Falcons (did that work? I’m not sure it did, but I’m rolling with it). In any case, for the first time this season we saw a narrow gap in usage between Bijan Robinson (11 opportunities) and Tyler Allgeier (10 opportunities). We’ve actually seen Robinson’s opportunities drop in each successive week since the start of the year. Robinson also had a season-low 64% snap rate while Allgeier was at a season-high 38% snap rate in a game that Atlanta was in control of for most of. Now, there’s a chance that Bijan’s decreased usage came on the back of him having shoulder issues. Still, it’s a concerning trend, especially when the coach is seemingly going with a hot-hand approach and Robinson is now dealing with a hamstring injury. The Falcons’ offense has also struggled in the red zone — according to Josh Norris, just 40% of their red zone drives end in a touchdown. When guys like Carson Steele and Khalil Herbert have more carries inside the five than Robinson does, we need to take a hard look at the usage. This all isn’t a knock on Allgeier, either — I actually think he’s a really good back and would be the number-one option on a lot of teams. But, the data shows that this may no longer be a full-on RB1 and RB2 scenario, so I’m buying Allgeier and I’m considerably tempering expectations for what I’ll get from Robinson.
- Action: fade Bijan Robinson, buy Tyler Allgeier
- The big story for the New York Giants has been rookie phenom Malik Nabers, but I want to shift your attention to the backfield for one quick paragraph. Devin Singletary has had a hold on the primary role in New York since the start of the year and is one of 12 running backs with at least 15 opportunities in every game this year. His high-value touch usage has varied, averaging a respectable four per game, but the rest of the backs on the team have combined for just seven. Unfortunately, Singletary’s route participation leaves a bit to be desired as he’s topped the 50% mark just once this year (Week 1). The only other back, who I think should be added in most leagues, that’s made any noise is rookie Tyrone Tracy. He had just three carries in the first two weeks combined, but has been given nine across the last two weeks. It’s a low bar, but Tracy is one injury away from finding himself in a valuable spot.
- Action: hold Devin Singletary, add Tyrone Tracy
Wide Receiver Usage
- Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and the fire continues to roar on Davante Adams getting traded. With that and Adams missing Week 4, I want to be ahead of the curve on knowing how the targets will spread out if he is dealt. In the game against the Browns, Tre Tucker ran a route on a season-high 96% of dropbacks (up from his previous high of 85%) and earned himself six targets after being targeted nine times in Week 3. Jakobi Meyers also continued to be heavily involved with double-digit targets, running a route on every Las Vegas dropback. Tucker and Meyers were the only two wide receivers to run a route on more than 50% of the Raiders’ Week 4 dropbacks. DJ Turner did see a season-high routes run rate at 50%, but only earned one target. He would see the biggest relative jump in value should Adams be traded, but right now Tucker and Meyers are in a tier of their own (along with the tight ends on the team). With how much I expect Las Vegas to be passing going forward, these are some of the more valuable players that could be available on waiver wires or for trade in your leagues.
- Action: add Tre Tucker, hold Jakobi Meyers
- The Dolphins are, to put it lightly, a mess offensively right now. Unfortunately, that is trickling down to the dynamic wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who are the WR62 and WR63, respectively, in half PPR since Week 2. Without Tua at quarterback, the Dolphins have become one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. You can see that impacting Hill (six targets per game) and Waddle (five targets per game) over the last three games. No matter how explosive you might be, being a top-tier fantasy asset requires more volume than that. It doesn’t help that every Dolphins quarterback has a completion percentage over expectation of -5% or worse, according to Next Gen Stats. These are not startable players right now, you just need to hope that Tua can come back or Mike McDaniel can inject some magic into this offense. Until then, they’re merely bye-week fill-in options for me.
- Action: bench Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle
- The Jacksonville Jaguars remain the last winless team in the league, but I think now is the time to buy low on a team that should see better days ahead. First, we’re starting to see targets get funneled to the two best receivers, Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas. Kirk has seen double-digit targets in each of the past two games while Thomas has nine in both weeks as well. With this volume, the two have a targets per route run rate above 20%, which is very solid. Gabe Davis, though not earning as many targets, is running a route on 86% of dropbacks, the only other wide receiver above the 30% mark. Furthermore, I talked on our BettingPros show this week about why I think Trevor Lawrence is in for one of his best games this week. The one thing that I hope changes about Lawrence’s game is his average depth of target, which currently sits at 10.6 yards, the third-deepest in the league. This is cascading to each of the three players I mentioned, who all have an ADOT of over 12 yards so far this season. While this isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it just introduces more variance in production on a week-to-week basis.
- Action: buy Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas, hold Gabe Davis
Tight End Usage
- I wish I had been on the Tucker Kraft > Luke Musgrave train earlier, but it’s better late than never. So far this year, Kraft has run more routes and been targeted more than Musgrave in every game. Kraft’s 76% routes run rate ranks 12th among all tight ends this season. Albeit in a massive come-from-behind scenario, Kraft had his best game of the year (and one of the best in his career), catching six of his career-high nine targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Finally, Kraft’s five targets in the red zone currently leads the Packers, so if those continue to go his way then he’ll be finding the end zone a lot more.
- Action: add or buy Tucker Kraft
- It’s crazy that we’ve gotten here, but, as it stands, Jake Ferguson is a top-four tight end the rest of the way. The Cowboys are so incredibly thin at the skill positions that Ferguson is the clear number two option in Dallas behind CeeDee Lamb. That bears out with his 21.7% target share across three games, which ranks third among tight ends. Hopefully, the red zone targets (of which he only has one) start to go his way. You’ll be buying high on Ferguson, but he’s one of the better bets to continue to sustain solid usage for the rest of the season.
- Action: buy Jake Ferguson
Quick Hops
- Chuba Hubbard has seen four, six, and nine high-value touches in the last three games. Jonathon Brooks will not be activated by the Panthers this week, but his looming return has me wanting to sell-high on Hubbard while I have the chance.
- Keenan Allen returned to action on Sunday and was given an 85% routes rate. Rome Odunze still ran a route on 89% of dropbacks, but saw a season-low three targets. Caleb Williams attempted a season-low 23 passes, so hopefully that rises in the future so the target cannibalization impact isn’t seen as much.
- Keon Coleman‘s 14.7-yard average depth of target ranks 8th-highest in the NFL, yet he only has 11 targets on the season. His spike weeks are going to come, especially with Josh Allen at quarterback, but I’m fine seeing them come and go without worrying about when I’ll have to start him.
- In a game that saw New Orleans trailing for most of and that Taysom Hill missed a half of, Juwan Johnson ran a route on a season-high 71% of dropbacks.