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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 9
Players to Buy
Kyren Williams has scored in 10 straight games. Again, there is no need to sell Williams away as it seems the only thing that will derail his season will be an injury. As I noted last week, per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have the No. 1 most favorable schedule for RBs. At this point, he’s probably a better buy than anything else.
Tight end Brock Bowers led the receiving corps with five catches on 5 targets, totaling 58 yards and averaging 11.6 yards per reception. Bowers earned an 18.52% target share, accumulating 29 air yards.
When every tight end seemed to post bonkers numbers on National Tight Ends Days, Bowers was quiet. Buy low.
Jayden Reed provided a deep threat with 2 receptions for 55 yards, including a 51-yard catch. But only three targets as Reed ran a route on just 59% of dropbacks. Back-to-back dud games for Reed represent the perfect window to buy (along with the QB injury).
The Lions are the WORST defense against slot WRs this season.
Deebo Samuel Sr. also made a significant impact, catching 4 of his 7 targets for 71 yards, with a long reception of 47 yards. Samuel had a 66-yard touchdown nullified on an offensive holding penalty. Samuel Sr. captured a 29.17% target share, recording 51 air yards which made up 27.57% of the team’s total air yards.
Samuel has had an up-and-down year, dealing with a flurry of injuries. But a healthy Deebo without Aiyuk has an elite role for fantasy purposes. Last year in one game without Aiyuk, Samuel had 12 targets going for six and 129 yards with a touchdown.
He is risky to trade for, but could pay off in a big way. With him on the bye week, send those trade offers. All in all, if possible, you want to acquire the remaining (healthy) 49ers. Playoff schedule: vs LAR, @ MIA and vs DET.
Garrett Wilson was the top receiver, hauling in five receptions for 113 yards, showcasing his big-play ability with a long catch of 35 yards on eight targets. Wilson had one red zone target but did not catch or score.
Wilson led the Jets with a 32% target share and accumulated 169 air yards, making up 62.59% of the air yards.
Davante Adams also made an impact, catching 4 passes for 54 yards, including a 16-yard reception on eight targets (two were removed by penalties). Adams received two red zone targets but did not score. Adams held a 24% target share with 55 air yards (20.37%).
Through two games with Adams…Wilson leads the Jets in target share (26.5%), air yards (266), receiving yards (174, 87 per game) and receptions (10, 5 per game).
Even though Wilson’s volume has dropped since Adams’ arrival – targets, catches down – his yards and overall efficiency have increased with another weapon added to the offense for the defense to account for.
Adams hasn’t scored yet, which is his main appeal attached to Rodgers.
Given the Jets schedule you need to be over buying BOTH Jets WRs given how their prices have changed since the Adams trade. At least kick the tires on both of them. Remember, Jets get the Rams and Jaguars in the first two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jets have the third-ranked schedule for WRs for the rest of the season.
And as I wrote about the Wilson-Adams debate when the trade first went down…Adams had the tougher slate of CB matchups as the perceived No. 1. Joey Porter Jr. in Week 7. In Week 8, according to Next Gen Stats, Christian Gonzalez lined up against Adams on 23 of his 29 routes (79.3%), allowing just 1 reception for 16 yards on 3 targets. Adams continued to align in the slot on 41.4% of his snaps in Week 8 and has now done so on 44.3% of his snaps since joining the Jets; he aligned in the slot on just 25.0% of his snaps with the Raiders in Weeks 1-3. Adams caught both of his targets for 22 yards when aligned in the slot on Sunday.
With Adams’ continued usage in the slot, he’s going to have better matchups moving forward.
Jaylen Waddle contributed 45 yards on 4 catches, while tight end Jonnu Smith provided short-yardage support with 4 receptions for 20 yards on six targets.
Waddle captured 17.14% of targets and 49 air yards (26.49%). Waddle didn’t benefit from Tagovailoa like some of his teammates, but the upside is still there for him even after this week. Waddle had a drop that could have boosted his numbers. Waddle’s 314 receiving yards and zero TDs are the third-most for any WR without a TD yet this season.
Ezekiel Elliott led the Cowboys’ backfield, carrying the ball 10 times for 34 yards and finding the end zone once. Dalvin Cook added 12 rushing yards on six attempts, while KaVontae Turpin contributed a single 11-yard carry.
The first half carries were split six to four in favor of Elliott.
Hunter Luepke also had one rushing attempt that resulted in no gain.
Elliott had two red-zone carries, scoring once without targets.
Snap counts: Ezekiel Elliott: 45%, Dalvin Cook: 27%
Rico Dowdle (illness) was inactive Sunday night against the 49ers. He was expected to see a larger role after the bye week, but that didn’t happen based on his “illness”. He’s got a plus-matchup versus Atlanta in Week 9. Buy dirt cheap.
Tank Dell made an impact with 4 catches for 35 yards, including a touchdown on four targets. Dell had another pass for 19 yards wiped away due to an illegal formation penalty. Dell ran a route on 75% of dropbacks. Dell had one red zone target and scored. Dell saw an 11.11% target share, recording 33 air yards (11.79%).
Dell hasn’t been anywhere near his rookie self, failing to command targets at an elite level. Without Diggs/Collins on Thursday night, he has to be started based on the pure upside/volume proposition. And I think eventually he will return to form especially with him needed more in the Texans passing game. Recall that Tony Pollard didn’t feel like himself until Week 11 last year off a similar injury.
In his Chiefs debut, DeAndre Hopkins caught two passes for 29 yards on three targets. Ran a route on 33% of the dropbacks. Hopkins received 8.57% of the targets and accumulated 48 air yards (19.28%). You can never expect too much for a guy the team just traded for, but I’d expect his role to grow. Again, the schedule is great for Chiefs WRs. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chiefs have the second-ranked schedule for WRs rest of season.
The Browns stock has hit it’s highest price since Joe Flacco took over last season. It’s still not too late to hop on the Browns bandwagon.
The cheapest piece is Nick Chubb. He was okay versus Baltimore despite it being a brutal matchup. The hope for holding/buying on Chubb would be based on Weeks 16-17 against the Bengals and Dolphins. Hopefully, Chubb will be back to fuller form by then. And if this offense is good under Winston, you’ll be glad you bought while he was still super affordable.
Mark Andrews scored, catching all five of his targets for 36 yards. Andrews was targeted twice in the red zone and scored once. Andrews ran a route on 63% of dropbacks compared to Likely’s 60%. Andrews commanded a 14.29% target share, adding 29 air yards (7.97% of air yards). Likely had 11.43% of the targets but only 1 air yard (0.27%).
Positive usage for Andrews, as his routes surpassed Likely’s for the first time since Week 2. Very much positive development for Andrews (along with all the TD scores).
Cedric Tillman was the standout in the receiving corps, hauling in 7 of 9 targets for 99 yards and two touchdowns, including a 38-yard catch. Tillman scored twice despite just one red zone target without scoring or catching. Tillman led in air yards with 159 (38.69%) and commanded a 21.95% target share.
Alpha. Loved him coming out of Tennessee and I am LOVING what I am seeing so far this season with him in a full-time role. He leads the Browns in target share (24%) and air yards share (38%) the last two games.
Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer (two targets), and Sterling Shepard (five targets) were also effective, with Palmer averaging 14.5 yards per reception on 2 catches.
McMillan led the WRs with eight targets catching four for 35 yards. McMillan ran a route on 86% of dropbacks – also led the team. McMillan received one red zone target and did not score. McMillan commanded a 15.22% target share and contributed 95 air yards, making up 31.15% of the team’s air yards. McMillan had all the usage you could ask for in his first game sans Godwin and Mike Evans. Don’t be frustrated and drop him. Mayfield missed him on a deep pattern that could have been a touchdown. McMillan has nearly 200 air yards the last two weeks.
Players to Sell
Jonathan Taylor powered the Colts’ ground game, amassing 105 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry with a longest run of 28 yards.
Snap counts: Jonathan Taylor: 81%, Trey Sermon: 16%, Tyler Goodson: 3%
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Colts have the last-ranked schedule for running backs. You can get a lot for JT in trades.
Running back Kareem Hunt led the Chiefs’ rushing attack with 21 carries for 59 yards, including a touchdown, though he averaged only 2.8 yards per carry. Carson Steele chipped in with 6 yards on 2 carries.
Hunt saw six red-zone carries and scored one rushing touchdown, along with one target and no receiving touchdowns.
Snap counts: Kareem Hunt: 58%, Samaje Perine: 31%, Carson Steele: 11%
Hunt has been crushing, but Isiah Pacheco‘s eventual return creates some ambiguity about how useful Hunt will be in crunch time during the fantasy football playoffs. Don’t hold onto Hunt too tight before he loses value.
In the rushing game, Tank Bigsby was the primary workhorse, rushing 18 times for 78 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with a long of 16 yards. Lawrence also contributed on the ground, rushing 4 times for 10 yards and a touchdown.
Bigsby went for two catches on eight yards and three targets. Out-targeted D’Ernest Johnson.
Snap counts: Tank Bigsby: 67%, D’Ernest Johnson: 33%
Bigsby’s more involved role is a receiver was nice to see, with Jags-Packers a relatively close contest. But I still have long-term concerns about his role when Travis Etienne returns. I still have hesitation about what happens if the Jaguars are forced to play from behind in future weeks.
The upcoming schedule: @ PHI, vs. MIN, and @ DET before a Week 12 bye week.
After Week 12, Jacksonville finishes the season against HOU, @ TEN, vs. NYJ, @ LV, @ TEN, and @ IND. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars are tied for the No.32-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, they also have the third worst-ranked schedule for running backs.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving led the ground game, with Irving carrying the ball 9 times for 44 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, and White adding 29 yards on six attempts with a 4.8-yard average. White did lose a fumble early in the game.
Mayfield himself chipped in with 11 rushing yards on 3 carries, while Sean Tucker and Jalen McMillan contributed a few more yards on limited touches.
White and Irving split carries 50/50 in the first half, although White had zero carries in the second half of the contest. White had one red-zone carry and one target, converting the target into a touchdown. Bucky Irving had one red-zone carry but did not score or receive targets.
Snap counts: Rachaad White: 56%, Bucky Irving: 42%, Sean Tucker: 10%
According to Next Gen Stats, Irving totaled 84 yards on 16 touches in Week 8 against the Falcons, forcing a career-high 9 missed tackles.
Irving has now recorded a missed tackle forced rate of 40.6% this season. Irving also found majority of his success through the air on Sunday, setting career-highs in targets (7), receptions (70), and yards after the catch (60).
Simply put, he’s the best running back on the Buccaneers. Not White. After White scored again, you best be selling high. Tampa will play the Chiefs and 49ers before their bye week.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the primary target in the passing game, catching 6 of 7 targets for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception with a longest catch of 18 yards and 37 yards after the catch. Smith-Njigba received one red zone target but did not score.
Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks with a 25.93% target share and accumulated 49 air yards, accounting for 60.49%. If this is the ceiling case for JSN without Metcalf, I’m trading him away. He has one top-24 finish this season.
Metcalf seemed close to playing in Week 8 so I’d expect him to return baring any type of setback. He is the engine to the Seattle passing game. Buy low before they play the Rams in Week 9. But it has to be a great price.
Because the playoff schedule isn’t ideal. Something to keep in mind when potentially trading Seahawks away as the season progresses.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Seahawks are tied for the No.32-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Post Bye Week: @ SF, vs ARI, @ NYJ, @ ARI, vs GB, vs MIN and @ CHI.
On the ground, Jaleel McLaughlin paced the backfield with 8 carries for 47 yards, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Javonte Williams had a busier day with 17 attempts, though he managed only 44 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Nix himself rushed 5 times but only gained 4 yards. He scored the lone rushing touchdown.
Javonte Williams had three red-zone carries without touchdowns or targets. McLaughlin had two red-zone carries without a rushing touchdown and caught his only target for a touchdown.
Snap counts: Javonte Williams: 58%, Jaleel McLaughlin: 32%, Audric Estime: 7%
The schedule goes @ BAL, @ KC, vs. ATL, @ LV, vs. CLE BYE, vs. IND, @ LAC, @ CIN, and vs. KC.
A very tough draw for the Broncos run game the next two weeks, so the time would be now to get off the Williams ride with the best matchups in the rear-view window. He’s just been to inconsistent to trust for the long haul.
Calvin Ridley led the receiving corps, catching 10 of 15 targets for 143 yards, averaging 14.3 yards per reception, with a 47-yard long and a notable 34 yards after catch. In the first half, Ridley had already amassed 126 yards on seven catches and ten targets. Ridley was targeted twice in the red zone but did not score. Ridley dominated the Titans’ air yards with 39.47% target share and 167 air yards (45.75%). What do we do after a breakout game for a WR that has underwhelmed all season? Sell high. The process, the process, the process. However, don’t sell for nothing.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Titans have the fourth-ranked schedule for WRs for the rest of the season. The rest of the schedule: vs. NE, @ LAC, vs. MIN, @ HOU, @ WAS, vs. JAC, vs. CIN, @ IND, and @ JAC. If Ridley catches Christian Gonzalez shadow coverage, it could be a long day at the office for him.
In the receiving game, tight end Sam LaPorta led the team, catching all 6 of his targets for 48 yards and a touchdown, with a long of 24 yards and significant yards after catch. LaPorta had four red zone targets and caught one touchdown. LaPorta commanded a high 33.33% target share. It’s not a coincidence that LaPorta’s best game to date came when Jameson Williams was out due to his suspension. Detroit could pretty much do whatever they wanted to do offensively in this spot, so it makes sense they’d feature Sammy Ballgame after he’s posted lackluster numbers this season. Given that Jamo is only out one more game, strike while the iron is hot with LaPorta. It will be hard for him to produce when ancillary guys are also chipping in and commanding targets.
In the backfield, De’Von Achane led the Dolphins’ rushing attack with 10 carries for 97 yards, including a 47-yard breakaway run that underscored his explosive speed. Raheem Mostert contributed 19 yards on 9 carries but was highly effective in the red zone, punching in 2 touchdowns. Jaylen Wright added 18 yards on just 2 attempts, averaging an impressive 9 yards per carry.
The schedule is JUICY for Miami’s RBs. @ BUF, @ LAR, vs. LV and vs. NE.
Achane out-touched Mostert 11 to 3 in the first half. Mostert recorded five red-zone carries, scoring twice and had no targets. Achane recorded one red-zone carry without scoring and converted two targets into a receiving touchdown.
Snap counts: De’Von Achane: 58%, Raheem Mostert: 46%, Jaylen Wright: 5%
Mostert’s threading a narrow path to production with him relying solely on TDs. He’s behind Achane moreso than he was last season, and Wright is breathing down his neck for opportunities. Sell high after the two-TD performance after Mostert mustered just 2.1 yards per carry, while his RB counterparts both averaged over nine yards per carry against the same defense. I understand that Mostert’s ypc is heavily influenced by the majority of his rushes being in side the red zone, but his rushing success rate (33%) was still very poor. Wright was at 100%, followed by Achane at 60%. Mostert’s 33% success rate this season ranks 42nd out of 52 qualifying RBs this season.
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