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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 8
Players to Buy
CeeDee Lamb was the standout for the Cowboys’ receiving corps, catching 7 of his 14 targets for 89 yards, including a long reception of 27 yards. Lamb commanded a 32% target share, proving to be Prescott’s go-to option. Lamb had three red zone targets, converting one into a catch but no touchdown. Lamb had 110 air yards, 34% air yard share. The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone, with turnovers and inefficiency in the passing game stalling multiple drives. It was a rough performance for Prescott and the offense, as they look to regroup for the next matchup after their Week 7 bye week.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Dallas is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. The schedule is as follows: @ SF, @ ATL, vs PHI, vs HOU, @ WAS, vs NYG, vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. Dallas is following the same script as last year. Start slow, go on the bye week and “hopefully” come out guns blazing. Lamb is probably a sharp buy-low target as one of true elite fantasy WRs.
Kyren Williams has scored in nine straight games. Again, there is no need to sell Williams away as it seems the only thing that will derail his season will be an injury. As I noted last week, per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have the No. 1 most favorable schedule for RBs. At this point, he’s probably a better buy than anything else.
Malik Nabers was the top target with eight looks, catching four passes for 41 yards, averaging 10.3 yards per reception with a long of 14 yards and 12 yards after the catch (YAC). 105 air yards, 54.69% air yards share, 29.63% target share. The good news is that Nabers seems healthy. Like we suggested with Brian Thomas Jr. last week, buy these uber-talented rookie WRs after “down” games. The Giants will play the Steelers, Commanders, and Panthers before a bye week.
Jayden Reed caught two of his four targets for 10 yards, while Christian Watson caught 1 of 2 targets for 9 yards. Reed ran a route on 83% of dropbacks. 38 air yards, 12.79% air yards share, 12.12% target share for Reed. Love missed him deep on a long completion that could have saved him in the box score. Buy low.
De’Von Achane led the team with 15 carries for 77 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He had a long run of 15 yards but was kept out of the end zone. He played 58% of the snaps in his return and rushed for his largest total since Week 2. Achane contributed in the passing game as well, catching two of his three targets for 8 yards. If you can buy Achane now, you have to do it. The schedule is JUICY for Miami’s RBs. Versus Arizona, @ BUF, @ LAR, vs LV, vs NE. Raheem Mostert also contributed with 11 carries for 50 yards, posting a 4.5 YPC. But he also lost a fumble and had another 32-yard carry wiped off the board because of a holding call. Mostert rushed three times in the red zone while playing a 33% snap share.
Jaylen Wright had five carries for 33 yards, with a notable long run of 19 yards, averaging an impressive 6.6 yards per carry. The rookie played six offensive snaps.
The first half carries were Achane (11) and Mostert (8). Even though Mostert is the next-man up, I think the team has liked what they have seen from Wright. I’d be selling Mostert and looking to stash Wright.
Diontae Johnson caught just one of his three targets for 17 yards, averaging 17 yards per catch. 40 air yards, 63.49% air yards share, 17.65% target share. Johnson ran a route on 71% of dropbacks after he came out of the blow-out game. The low games for DJ are brutal, but his ceiling contests are still too good to write him off entirely. All of his targets came in the first quarter. You probably don’t have to trade for Diontae this week given the matchup against Denver, but that might just be baked into the trade price.
DeVonta Smith had a single reception for negative yardage (-2 yards) on two targets. 1 air yard, 1% air yards share, 14.29% target share. This was the most outlier of outlier games for Smith. Not involved at all despite Dallas Goedert being out of the lineup. Buy low.
The Eagles will face the Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams, and Ravens. The Eagles’ schedule is very good for the rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and RBs.
Garrett Wilson caught five of his nine targets for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per catch with a long of 27 yards and 39 YAC. 97 air yards, 47.78% air yards share, 23.08% target share. Wilson ran a route on 100% of dropbacks.
Allen Lazard had a perfect catch rate, snagging all four of his targets for 58 yards, averaging 14.5 yards per catch, with a long of 20 yards. Lazard ran a route on 62.5% of dropbacks (season-low).
Davante Adams caught three of his nine targets for 30 yards, averaging 10 yards per catch. Adams saw 1 red zone target but didn’t catch it. 45 air yards, 22.17% air yards share, 23.08% target share. Adams ran a route on 97.5% of dropbacks.
Adams’ Jets debut left a lot to be desired, but he got dropped into the Jets WR1 role from the get-go. Saw a strong target share and was involved heavily in the first half gameplan. He and Wilson split snaps from the slot, suggesting that each will get favorable mismatches moving forward. Given the Jets schedule you need to be over buying BOTH Jets WRs given how their prices have suppressed since Sunday night football. At least kick the tires on both of them. Remember, Jets get the Rams and Jaguars in the first two weeks of the fantasy football playoffs.
Chris Olave should also return after he missed Week 7 with a concussion. Recall that Rashid Shaheed was placed on IR, opening the target floodgates for Olave to feast. Buy low with Olave’s out of sight out of mind status.
Dare Ogunbowale and Tank Dell were targeted but did not record any receptions. Dell saw a total of six targets including penalties, but goose egged. Woof. Dell saw two red zone targets but failed to convert either into a catch. 45 air yards, 32.85% air yards share, 21.05% target share. Buy low. The Texans take on the Colts, Jets, and Lions in their next three games. Then it’s the Cowboys, Titans and Jaguars before their bye week. They open the fantasy football playoffs against the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens.
Xavier Worthy was targeted a team-high eight times but only managed three catches for 19 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per reception with 13 YAC. Mahomes missed him deep early in the second half, and he fell out of an intercepted route. Worthy caught his only red zone target but didn’t score. Worthy ran a route on 72% of dropbacks – tied for the team lead with Justin Watson. The rookie totaled 134 air yards, 62.04% air yards share, 32% target share and 35% target rate per route run. Buy LOW.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a long of 8 yards. He started over Singletary. Tracy Jr. ran a route on 60% of dropbacks to Singletary’s 15%. He also played a 67% snap share. Devin Singletary contributed with five carries for 18 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per rush and breaking a 10-yard run. Tracy is the Giants RB1. With his pass-catching ability and strong matchups upcoming against the Panthers/Commanders, trade for him.
Darnell Mooney contributed with five catches on eight targets for 46 yards, averaging 9.2 yards per reception, with a long of 20 yards. Mooney caught his only red zone target but didn’t score. 51 air yards, 19.47% air yards share, 22.22% target share. Buy low with the Buccaneers coming up in Week 8.
Khalil Shakir was perfect on the day, securing all seven of his targets for 65 yards. His longest catch was for 20 yards, and he managed 62 yards after the catch. Shakir had 1 red zone target. 4 air yards, 1.41% air yards share, 21.88% target share. Shakir ran a route on 77.14% of dropbacks. With all the shine on Coleman/Cooper I think that Shakir is a sneaky buy. He’s back to his full health and Allen still trusts him the most among the current WR personnel.
Players to Sell
Kendre Miller led the team on the ground with six carries for 36 yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry with a long of 16 yards. 29% snap share. Miller looked pretty good in his debut and even got some rare strong praise from Dennis Allen post-game. Considering Alvin Kamara leads the NFL in touches (145), I’m a firm believer it won’t be able to sustain this insane workload.
Spencer Rattler also contributed with five rushes for 34 yards, including a 28-yard long run, averaging 6.8 yards per carry.
Jamaal Williams added three carries for 17 yards, with a 5.7-yard average and a long of 13 yards.
Kamara struggled in the run game, managing just 10 yards on seven carries, averaging 1.4 yards per carry with a long of 6 yards. Kamara has come crashing down since his hot start, and I’d do my best to move off the aging running back if I can. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been the same after the injuries across the OL and the loss of Derek Carr. But if we want to be smart about this you hold Kamara until the Panthers in Week 9, then sell. Carr should be back by then.
Amari Cooper was reliable in his Bills debut, catching four of his five targets for 66 yards, with a long of 27 yards, and he added a red-zone touchdown. Dropped his first pass – would expect nothing less – but bounced back. 57 air yards, 20.14% air yards share, 15.63% target share.
Cooper didn’t play a full allotment of snaps with his new team as he ran a route on 31.43% of dropbacks. But his 45.5% target rate per route run is very encouraging for his long-term outlook with Allen as his quarterback. I still think Cooper’s going maintain his boom-or-bust mantra, but the highs will be very appealing attached to Allen. Although, his playoff matchups at home in Buffalo outdoors against the Jets/Patriots don’t seem like monster Cooper games. Just put him on the block and see if you can get an overpay.
Najee Harris carried the ball 21 times, rushing for 102 yards at a 4.9 yards per carry average, including a long run of 34 yards, while also scoring 1 touchdown. Received 8 red zone rushing attempts, scoring 1 touchdown.
Jaylen Warren had 12 rushes for 44 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. Harris out-carried Warren eight to four in the first half. Warren received 3 rushing attempts and 1 target in the red zone but did not score. He led the Steelers in backfield snaps (51%) over Harris (49%).
I talked about last week how slow Najee has been traditionally, so I’d like to think this is a sign of things to come. However, the last two games stand out as a glaring outlier compared to his body of work this season. The matchups against the Raiders and Jets have been extremely soft spots.
I think I’d use this opportunity to sell high on Harris. The schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season with all six AFC North matchups. Warren is getting healthier which could create problems for Harrs in the second half of the season.
The Steelers will face NYG before a bye week. After that, they will play @ WAS, vs BAL, @ CLE, @ CIN, vs CLE, @ PHI, @ BAL and vs KC.
Tank Bigsby dominated the ground game with 26 carries for 118 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with a long run of 13 yards on a 66% snap share.
Bigsby had 14 red zone rushing attempts and converted two into touchdowns. No targets in the red zone. Per Next Gen Stats, Bigsby took over lead RB duties against the Patriots, accumulating most of his rushing production on runs inside the tackles (career-high 91 of his 118 rushing yards).
Bigsby forced 7 missed tackles across 26 carries, his 2nd-most missed tackles forced on runs in a game this season.
D’Ernest Johnson added nine rushes for 38 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry with a 10-yard long run. Two rushing attempts and 1 target in the red zone.
D’Ernest Johnson was involved in the passing game as well, catching three of his four targets for 32 yards, averaging 10.7 yards per catch with a 26-yard-long reception. Johnson ran a route on 52% of dropbacks. Bigsby was at 33%.
The matchup was there for the taking against the Patriots bad run defense, and Bigsby took full advantage. But the game script was so perfect for him, that I have hesitation about what happens if the Jaguars are forced to play from behind in future weeks. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, and @ DET before a Week 12 bye week.
And fellow RB Travis Etienne Jr. will likely return, creating more chaos and ambiguity in the Jaguars backfield. Head coach Doug Pederson has already spoken on Etienne’s status as the team’s RB1 despite how well Tank has played. Just seems like a situation I’d like to wipe my hands clean of.
30 air yards, 10.10% air yards share, 6.06% target share for Christian Watson. Watson is going to be difficult to trust as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR3. He split snaps and routes with Dontayvion Wicks healthy and back in the lineup. Given that we have all 32 teams playing next week and GB has a Week 10 bye, I don’t feel the need to hold onto either Wicks/Watson in such a volatile role. One might hit against the Jaguars, but it’s hard to have confidence in which one it will be.
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