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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 7
Players to Buy
On the ground, Saquon Barkley led the team in rushing with 18 carries for 47 yards, though he didn’t find much room to run, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. Hurts contributed 33 rushing yards on 14 attempts, while Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 23 yards on three carries, including a long run of 19 yards. Jahan Dotson also added a 13-yard rush.
Snaps: Saquon Barkley: 79%, Kenneth Gainwell: 21%
The Browns run defense showed up big in this game. Per Next Gen Stats, they held Eagles rushers to -13 rushing yards over expected on the day, the lowest rushing yards over expected in a game by the Eagles this season. If you can buy low on Barkley after his worst game of the season, I think that’s the move to make. The Eagles will face the, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams, and Ravens. The Eagles’ schedule is very good for the rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and RBs.
Also Barkley revenge game against his old team? Lock of the week.
CeeDee Lamb was the standout for the Cowboys’ receiving corps, catching 7 of his 14 targets for 89 yards, including a long reception of 27 yards. Lamb commanded a 32% target share, proving to be Prescott’s go-to option. Lamb had three red zone targets, converting one into a catch but no touchdown. Lamb had 110 air yards, 34% air yard share. The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone, with turnovers and inefficiency in the passing game stalling multiple drives. It was a rough performance for Prescott and the offense, as they look to regroup for the next matchup after their Week 7 bye week.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Dallas is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. The schedule is as follows: @ SF, @ ATL, vs PHI, vs HOU, @ WAS, vs NYG, vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI. Dallas is following the same script as last year. Start slow, go on the bye week and “hopefully” come out guns blazing. Lamb is probably a sharp buy-low target as one of the true elite fantasy WRs.
Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, rushing 13 times for 102 yards, including a long run of 59 yards, and an average of 7.8 yards per carry with a touchdown. Mixon rushed six times in the red zone for 20 yards, scoring one rushing touchdown. He also caught two red zone targets, adding one receiving touchdown. Mixon, contributing to the passing game, snagged three passes on four targets for 30 yards, including a touchdown.
Dameon Pierce added eight carries for 76 yards, notably breaking free for a 54-yard run touchdown, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.
Snaps: Joe Mixon: 42%, Dare Ogunbowale: 27%, Dameon Pierce: 27%, Cam Akers: 3%.
Don’t let the snap counts fool you. This was Mixon in the RB1 role. The Texans take on the Packers next followed by the Colts, Jets, and Lions.
The Packers’ rushing attack was headed by Josh Jacobs, who carried the ball 18 times for 62 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry but did not score a rushing touchdown. Emanuel Wilson contributed with 54 rushing yards on seven attempts, averaging a solid 7.7 yards per carry, though he also did not find the end zone.
Snaps: Josh Jacobs: 63%, Emanuel Wilson: 32%
At this point, Jacobs’ biggest problem is that Jordan Love just throws too many TDs. He’s been above average as a rusher. Third in carries, and 21st in rushing yards above expectation per attempt. Nobody “wants” Jacobs but he’s got the numbers, pedigree and lead role in a high-powered offense to be a difference-maker in fantasy football. Trade for him.
Mike Evans was targeted six times, catching two passes for 34 yards, with a long of 17 yards, while tight end Cade Otton added two catches on six targets for 15 yards and one touchdown. Otton had two red zone targets, securing one and finding the end zone for a touchdown. Evans left the game briefly but returned. He recorded one target in the second half. Evans had 87 air yards, 40% air yard share. Buy low. He only ran a route on 62.5% of the dropbacks playing a season-low in snaps. The Buccaneers are going to need Evans over the next month. Tampa will play the Ravens and Falcons in the next two games, then the Chiefs and 49ers before their bye week.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Buccaneers have a No.2-most favorable schedule for WRs.
Brian Thomas Jr. also had a meh outing, catching three of his six targets for 27 yards. Thomas Jr. saw two red zone targets but came up empty on catches and touchdowns. He led the team in routes run on 77% of the dropbacks. Not often you can buy low on a rookie as talented as Thomas. I’d take advantage. I think Engram’s return is going to overshadow Thomas’ rest of season outlook when Gabe Davis was the one that ate into Thomas’ Week 6 production. Don’t love another tough matchup in Week 7 against cornerback Christian Gonzalez but I’ll take the risk to get Thomas on my roster.
Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba was involved with nine targets, catching five passes for 53 yards, while DK Metcalf led in targets with 11 (23% target share) but only managed 48 yards on 3 receptions, one of them being a 30-yard gain. Metcalf was targeted three times in the red zone but caught just one and did not score a touchdown. Metcalf had 166 air yards, 41% air yard share – the quintessential buy-low candidate based on his opportunity alone. Seattle will face Atlanta, Buffalo, and Los Angeles (Rams) before their bye week-a great overall schedule for the offense and its fantasy weapons. Invest in the Seahawks’ passing game, which is a +5% pass rate over expectation over the last three weeks.
In the receiving game, A.J. Brown was the standout performer, catching six of his nine targets (36% target share) for 116 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception went for 40 yards. Brown had 152 air yards, 62% air yard share. ALPHA. No. 2 tight end Grant Calcaterra was highly efficient, grabbing all four of his targets (16% target share) for 67 yards, including a 34-yard reception. Calcaterra ran a route on 82% of the dropbacks as he took on the full Dallas Goedert role after he left with a hamstring injury. DeVonta Smith also had a solid day, catching three of his four targets (16% target share) for 64 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard catch. Smith’s production always booms when someone else in the receiving corps misses time.
The Cardinals’ ground attack was led by Trey Benson, who gained 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt, though he did not score. Benson was also part of a fumble (credited to Murray) on a botched exchange in the fourth quarter.
Emari Demercado added 25 rushing yards on four carries, while James Conner managed 24 yards on just seven attempts. None of the Arizona running backs recorded a rushing touchdown in this game. Conner did not record a carry in the second half. Conner had one red zone rushing attempt for two yards but did not score or have any targets. He was game scripted out of this contest and was dealing with an ankle injury during the game. Fumbling a screen pass also likely didn’t help his playing time. If you want a low-end fantasy RB1 at a discount, Conner is your guy to target through trade this week. Snaps: Emari Demercado: 53%, James Conner: 28%, Trey Benson: 19%
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Cardinals have a No.1-most favorable schedule for RBs.
On the ground, Jayden Daniels also contributed with six carries for 22 yards, though he did not score. Austin Ekeler had a quiet day rushing with nine attempts for only 21 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Ekeler had one red zone rushing attempt for no yards and no targets or touchdowns.
Ekeler was a significant threat out of the backfield in the passing game, securing four of five targets for 47 yards, including a long reception of 25 yards. Jeremy McNichols added 9 rushing yards on two carries.
Snaps: Austin Ekeler: 75%, Jeremy McNichols: 37%
Ekeler drew the start but had the worst matchup imaginable against the league’s premier run defense. Buy low on this backfield, specifically Ekeler. Week 7, hello Panthers run defense.
He leads all RBs this season in yards per touch (8.6). Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Commanders have a No.1-most favorable schedule for RBs.
Ladd McConkey was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 43 yards, accounting for a 26% target share and 97 air yards. Fell just short of a TD with two targets inside the 10-yard line.
McConkey ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks, despite suffering a head injury during the game. He does look to be okay though after returning to action.
Assuming he is healthy, McConkey remains a top-trade target.
27% target share on the season. Top 12 on the season. Great matchup on deck versus Arizona, who just roasted from the slot.
Tight end David Njoku saw seven targets (30.4% target share), hauling in five receptions for 31 yards, with a long catch of 27 yards. Njoku had one red zone target but did not make a catch or score. Njoku ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Buy low. Jerry Jeudy‘s targets have gotten nuked since Njoku returned. With Watson at quarterback and targets coming at a premium, he can be dropped across most formats.
The Bears will be on a Week 7 bye. After that, they will play the Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers after the bye week. A solid string of matchups for the Bears offense.
In the macro, you probably want to hold onto your Bears players given the soft matchups upcoming. They have improved dramatically offensively, with Williams hitting his stride. They are also on a bye week, so most managers won’t give you much if you are selling. Therefore, the move is to buy Rome Odunze. We see rookies often take a massive step forward in the second halves of the season, especially after the bye week.
The rest of the receiving corps struggled to make a significant impact. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine caught one of his two targets for a nine-yard TD, while Calvin Ridley was targeted eight times but managed zero receptions. Ridley had 133 air yards, a 54% air yard share, and a 30% target share. And he scored zero fantasy points as a receiver. He went OFF after the game based on his lack of early-game usage. I thought last week was the squeaky wheel game. This week I’m expecting even more noise from the Ridley wheel.
In the run game, Javonte Williams led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Audric Estime contributed 13 yards on two carries, including an 11-yard run, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 8 yards on three carries. Williams also lost a fumble. Snaps: Javonte Williams: 67%, Jaleel McLaughlin: 25%, Audric Estime: 4%
McLaughlin and Williams also got involved in the passing game, with McLaughlin catching two passes for 17 yards and Williams recording three receptions for 13 yards on six targets. Denver will play the Saints reeling defense and Panthers in their next two games. Two absolute smash spots for the Broncos running backs to get going. But after Williams struggled again and turned the ball over…we could see this backfield shift. After the game head coach Sean Payton said he wanted to see more of the rookies. Per the Thednvr.com, Payton said,” We are a young team. I want to see this runner as well. I want to see [Audric] Estime,” Payton said, when asked about the young talent on offense. “We are going to see [Devaughn] Vele and we are going to see [Troy] Franklin. We are not waiting to redshirt these guys. We will continue to see each week their involvement in the plan and how they fit. That is how you get confidence and get experience.”
I wanted to believe that Williams was turning the corner after two strong weeks, but it might just be over for him. He’s not a Payton guy, and he’s hardly given a great case for keeping him on the field. Cash out now, and make sure McLaughlin/Estime aren’t available on waivers.
Players to Sell
Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 102 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 30 yards. Rookie Blake Corum added 25 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 5 yards per carry, with a long of 12 yards. Corum logged three red zone carries without scoring to Williams’ four red zone carries. Corum had two carries inside the 5-yard line. Kyren only had one but scored from the one-yard line after Corum couldn’t punch it in. Could this be a sign of things to come? Potentially. Corum hasn’t been used at all this season until this point. Going into the bye week, we could see his role expanded, as oftentimes happens with rookies. Again, there is no need to MUST sell Williams away. Most if not all running backs are in some kind of committee.
If anything, I am prioritizing making sure Corum is on my bench if I have Williams as my RB1. Remember that Williams’ fantasy production has been heavily weighed by his seven touchdowns.
He ended Week 5 with fewer yards from scrimmage than Bijan Robinson despite ranking second in the NFL in total touches (109) through five weeks.
But I think I’m just bitter about having faded Williams during the draft season. He’s doing exactly what he did last year. And the Rams’ offense could ascend in the second half. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have a favorable schedule for RBs. Maybe more of a reason to add Corum, than sell Williams. Especially with the Raiders coming up, having given up a big game to Najee Harris in Week 6.
In the passing game, Deebo Samuel Sr. led the 49ers’ receiving corps, hauling in three of his five targets for 102 yards, including a massive 76-yard touchdown reception that showcased his game-breaking ability. Samuel was targeted twice in the red zone but didn’t record a catch or a touchdown. What do we do when a singular 49er blows up one week? Sell high. I don’t anticipate either main 49ers WR posting consistent production throughout the 2024 season, unless there’s an injury. Still, Samuel’s role is superior for fantasy scoring to Aiyuk’s role in this offense. However, this week seems more like an Aiyuk game. Samuel has been held under 45 receiving yards the last two times he has faced Kansas City. Aiyuk has averaged nearly 9 targets per game in his last two matchups against the Chiefs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers secured a solid performance on the ground, highlighted by Najee Harris rushing 14 times for 106 yards and one touchdown. Harris averaged an impressive 7.6 yards per carry, including a long run of 36 yards. Harris had two red zone rushing attempts for four yards but no targets or touchdowns. Harris also contributed as a receiver, with 2 catches for 16 yards on 2 targets, complementing his rushing production. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught 2 of his 3 targets for 16 yards, while Jaylen Warren, despite his struggles on the ground, caught 3 of his 3 targets for 11 yards.
Snaps: Najee Harris: 46%, Jaylen Warren: 37%, Jonathan Ward: 9%
Interestingly enough, Harris played the fewest number of snaps since Week 2 but had his best game to date by far in 2024. Warren was active for the first time since Week 3. That’s all it took for Harris to get his production going. Go figure. I talked about last week how slow Najee has been traditionally, so I’d like to think this is a sign of things to come. However, this game stands out as a glaring outlier compared to his body of work this season. I think I’d use this opportunity to sell high on Harris. The schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season with all six AFC North matchups.
Running back Sean Tucker stole the show on the ground, rushing 14 times for 136 yards, averaging an impressive 9.7 yards per carry, including a long run of 36 yards with a touchdown. He also contributed in the passing game, catching three of his three targets (8.3% target share) for 56 yards, including a receiving touchdown. Although he only had one carry in the first half. Tucker rushed twice for 13 yards in the red zone and scored one rushing touchdown without any targets. Bucky Irving also had a strong game in the backfield with 14 carries for 81 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and added two catches on two targets for 18 yards. Irving rushed four times in the red zone, gaining 24 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown, without any red zone targets. Snaps: Bucky Irving: 64%, Sean Tucker: 38%. Tucker did a lot of damage in the second half, but it’s not as if he wasn’t involved at all in the offensive game plan (used as a receiver). We don’t know what this backfield will look like if Rachaad White returns, but it could be a three-headed monster down the year. Irving’s price is at its peak right now, before a brutal matchup against the Ravens. Todd Bowles said post-game that Tucker has earned the right for more opportunities. In fact, Bowles used the word “three-headed monster” regarding his backfield. Gross.
In the rushing attack, Chase Brown took the lead with 10 carries for 53 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 30 yards. Brown scored to ice the game, but had another TD wiped away due to an offensive holding call.
Zack Moss contributed 13 yards on 6 carries but was limited to just 2.2 yards per carry. Moss also lost a fumble.
Snaps: Chase Brown: 62%, Zack Moss: 45%. Chase Brown szn also didn’t come to fruition (he also fumbled) but he got the lucky bounce with the ball going out of bounds. Brown started and out-snapped Moss for the first time all season.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)
In the receiving game, Josh Downs was Flacco’s favorite target, seeing a 24% target share with nine targets. Downs hauled in seven of those targets for 66 yards, with a long reception of 22 yards and a TD. Downs was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one but no touchdowns. Downs has been a target machine since his return to the lineup, regardless of the quarterback under center. His 35% target rate per route run ranks 4th-highest in the NFL. Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted five times, catching three passes for 35 yards and one TD on a jump ball from Flacco. He was not limited despite entering the game with a back injury. But for the second straight game, he took a backseat to Downs. But MPJ also scored again. Take advantage and ship him off. With Anthony Richardson eventually back under center, only one Colts pass-catcher will likely be relevant. And I’d bet it’s Downs who is the most reliable based on his ability to command targets at an elite level.
Wide receiver Keenan Allen contributed 41 yards on five catches (five targets), averaging 8.2 yards per reception with two touchdowns, while Rome Odunze added 40 yards on two receptions from two targets, including a 20-yard long reception. Allen had two red zone targets, catching both and scoring two touchdowns. Pretty easy case for a sell-high to an older veteran WR off the touchdowns amid strong target competition.
Tight end Mark Andrews also delivered a solid performance, catching three of his four targets (16% target share) for 66 yards, with a long catch of 38 yards. Andrews was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one pass for a touchdown.
Isaiah Likely added 27 receiving yards on two receptions (four targets, 16% target share), while Nelson Agholor had one catch on his three targets for 25 yards. Likely was targeted once in the red zone but did not make a catch.
The tight end routes were an even split. Likely ran a route on 53% of the dropbacks to Andrew’s 50% of the dropbacks.
Andrews’ stringing together back-to-back weeks has been excellent. And if you hadn’t given up hope yet, then you deserve a pat on the back. But he is still just a streamer until we see his usage change. He played fewer snaps than in Week 5. I’m telling you that you should trade Andrews for Likely straight up after this performance.
Baltimore will face the Buccaneers next, followed by the Browns. Then it’s the Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers and Eagles before a bye week.
Wide receiver Greg Dortch caught three of his five targets for 36 yards but did not score. James Conner added four catches for 22 yards on five targets, while Michael Wilson caught two of his four targets for 21 yards with a touchdown. Wilson was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one and scoring a touchdown. Wilson had 44 air yards, 23% air yard share with the Cardinals not attacking downfield in any capacity. Marvin Harrison Jr. only had two targets. Harrison was evaluated for a head injury in Sunday’s Week 6 game against Green Bay, and he was ruled out from returning because of a concussion. Given the Harrison injury, Wilson might see a boost in the trade market. I think I might sell high on his perception as the Cardinals WR1, given that it will still be the McBride show. Also, the schedule isn’t great for WRs leading up until the bye week. The Cardinals’ next game is against the Chargers at home, followed by the Dolphins, Bears, and Jets before their bye week. After their bye week, the schedule is salivating for the playoff run: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs SEA, vs NE, @ CAR, @ LAR and vs SF.
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