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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 5
Players to Buy
In the rushing game, Braelon Allen led with eight carries for 34 yards, while Breece Hall was held to just four yards on ten carries. Hall also saw five targets to Allen’s one while winning the snap battle 69% to Allen’s 36%. Similar to what the split has been so far this season.
This game was a slop fest in the rain. Hall couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Keep in mind that he only had one carry in the entire second half. He got stuffed twice from inside the Denver one-yard line.
Allen’s not going away. I think we can all see his talent. But I think an Allen backfield takeover based on this game is not one of my takeaways from Week 4. Hall still dominated the high-value touches in regard to targets, routes (nearly doubled Allen) and red-zone opportunities (three), two occurring from inside the 5-yard line.
How do you feel about Hall rest of season?
I’m settling on him as a buy-low. Hall still ranks tenth in touches among running backs, and number one in RB targets (24). Hall is pacing for over 100 targets (same as last season). Keep calm and Breece Hall on.
James Cook had 9 carries for 39 yards, averaging 4.3 YPC with a long run of 7 yards. Cook caught his only target for 9 yards. The Bills ran into a buzzsaw (Derrick Henry) on Sunday Night Football, and they just couldn’t match the Ravens’ production. But that hardly means the sky is falling on this offense. After a prime-time dud, all Bills should be at the top of your trade target lists.
Jordan Mason carried the ball 24 times for 123 yards (5.1 YPC) with one touchdown and a long run of 25 yards. Mason caught three of three targets for 37 yards. He’s a hold/buy for me because I have zero confidence that this Christian McCaffrey saga ends on a positive note. Mason is young and leads the NFL in rushing attempts (91) while ranking second in touches (97). I’m finding it hard to narrow my list of RBs I wouldn’t trade for Mason.
Brock Bowers caught two of three targets for 19 yards. Woof. No Davante Adams. No targets for Bowers. Make it make sense. Give the ball to the talent. The route participation was at a season-high of 73%. Buy low.
Josh Jacobs had nine carries for 51 yards. Jacobs caught four of six targets for 27 yards (11% target share) while leading the backfield with a 61% snap rate.
Emanuel Wilson had eight carries for 27 yards. Jacobs saw two more carries (also two targets) inside the red zone but didn’t score again. Green Bay had the ball at the three-yard line, but they got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. Jacobs’ inability to score is beyond frustrating. But the fact that he was able to muster production in the face of massive negative game script is a positive. With Love back under center, Jacobs is a BUY. Eighth in touches this season.
When Love has been under center this season, Jacobs has rushed into stacked boxes on just one of 26 carries. The touchdowns will come.
Brandon Aiyuk caught two of five targets for 48 yards (18.5% target share, 90 air yards). Aiyuk’s production has been lackluster thus far, and I think a lot can be attributed to his missed time this offseason. In Aiyuk’s defense – pun intended – he drew the toughest matchup New England had to offer.
Per Next Gen Stats, Christian Gonzalez aligned to the boundary on 70% of his snaps in Week 4 after having done so on 37%-38% of his snaps in every other game this season.
Gonzalez lined up against Brandon Aiyuk on 13 of his 25 routes (52%) and pressed him on 7 of 13 (54%). Aiyuk managed just 1 reception for 10 yards on 2 targets with Gonzalez as the nearest defender. Gonzalez allowed just 2 receptions for 12 yards on 5 total targets faced as the nearest defender.
But there’s no denying that he hasn’t looked like the WR the 49ers backed up the bank truck for. Meanwhile, Jennings looks like an emerging superstar.
In a game where he played with all the other 49ers playmakers healthy – aside from Christian McCaffrey – he was the target leader. That’s not nothing. When he’s running a route, Purdy is looking for No. 15. I think Jennings is a buy/hold. We see guys from the 49ers offense miss time constantly. Now it seems like he is fourth in the pecking order, but that could change quickly. He’s got immense upside in this offense attached to Purdy.
But that’s not to say Aiyuk isn’t also a buy. He’s not been himself, but we know the talent is there from last season. He will have his spike weeks at some point, but I don’t think his role in the offense is truly reflective of his role from a statistical standpoint. If you can buy low, great. Just don’t get carried away with selling the farm for Aiyuk. But have confidence that however you acquire Aiyuk, you’ll be getting him during his upcoming best stretch of future production.
Diontae Johnson had 13 targets, catching seven for 83 yards and one touchdown (32% target share, two RZ, 159 air yards). DJ was super productive for the second week in a row. But also, for the second week in a row Johnson left more production on the table.
His role is one of the single best you could ask for among fantasy football WRs. Buy high. Leads the NFL in red-zone targets. Easiest path to fantasy WR1 status? Red-zone targets.
Last week, I cited that the Ravens receivers had suppressed betting prop lines because of the severe lack of passes from Lamar Jackson in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his ENTIRE career where he played the full game. Week 4 was the fifth lowest of his career.
Needless to say, the lack of passing volume is going to regress to the mean eventually in games where Baltimore isn’t so fortunate to play from ahead. They are facing two top offenses in the next two weeks, so you could see the passing game seeing more volume. Flowers is an easy trade target as a result. Team-high 26% target share while leading the team in receptions.
Amari Cooper caught four of eight targets for 35 yards (25% target share). He had a long 82-yard TD wiped off the board because of a penalty. WOMP. There’s no experience like rostering Cooper in fantasy football.
Both Cooper and Jeudy saw nearly 100 air yards.
Tight end Blake Whiteheart caught all three of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown (9% target share). Two red-zone targets for a tight end I didn’t know existed. He worked in a closer committee with Jordan Akins. David Njoku should be close to returning in Week 5.
The Browns will play the Commanders in Week 5. If there’s a time to buy low on the Cleveland passing game, it would be before this salivating matchup.
J.K. Dobbins carried the ball 14 times for 32 yards (2.3 YPC). Dobbins caught all four of his targets for 30 yards (15% target share) while seeing a strong 71% snap share. Back-to-back weeks where Dobbins has dominated the snaps and the touches. Once the Chargers get their OL healthy post by week, Dobbins will be cooking. Buy low on the bye week.
Devin Singletary rushed 14 times for 24 yards, averaging 1.7 YPC, with a long run of five yards. New York will host Seattle and Cincinnati in the next two games. Singletary off a prime-time stinker might be a nice buy-low target. The Seahawks are dealing with defensive line issues and the Bengals bleed production to running backs. Singletary ranks inside the top 20 in total touches this season. Just don’t break the bank as the Giants running game has not been consistent whatsoever.
Justin Fields led the team with 55 yards on 10 carries (5.5 YPC) and 2 rushing touchdowns. Cordarrelle Patterson added 43 yards on 6 carries (7.2 YPC) before leaving with an injury, while Najee Harris contributed 19 yards on 13 carries (1.5 YPC). 69% snap share. The next RB on the depth chart is Aaron Shampklin. He’s a speed back.
Harris’ horrible performance is a reminder me why I didn’t want to draft him this season. Woof.
Harris and Josh Jacobs remain atop the list of RBs with the most red-zone opportunities without a touchdown score yet in 2024.
Still, he’s the last man standing against a depleted Cowboys defense. Unless he’s on your bench, you are starting him or trading for him on the cheap. Volume and matchup are favorable on his side.
Ladd McConkey caught five of seven targets for 67 yards and one touchdown (26% target share). He might be a sneaky trade target while on bye this week. 27% target share this season.
Brian Robinson had 21 carries for 101 yards and one touchdown (4.8 YPC). Robinson caught all three of his targets for 12 yards (10% target share).
Jeremy McNichols had eight carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns (8.5 YPC). McNichols caught one of one target for six yards (3% target share).
McNichols had a big role in this game in the absence of Austin Ekeler. Presuming Ekeler returns from his concussion soon, he’s a trade target for me. Ekeler looked great back from last year’s injuries, and this offense heavily involves the running backs. And if we saw Robinson miss time, Ekeler would be slated for upside akin to his glory years with the Chargers. Either way, this Commanders dynamic ground game should produce against the Browns.
Keenan Allen & Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)
Keenan Allen caught all three of his targets for 19 yards (13% target share). Rome Odunze was limited to one catch on three targets. It was Allen’s first game back from injury, so I am willing to let this performance slide. Among the Bears WRs to target in trade – because the schedule is so juicy – Allen might be my favorite in the short term. He’s a short-to-intermediate target, and that’s when Caleb Williams was at his best this past Sunday. Williams was 15 of 15 on passes under 15 air yards against the Rams in Week 4, completing +21.6% of passes over expected. I also like Rome Odunze as a sneaky buy. Allen’s presence nuked his target appeal, but this is still a top-10 real-life NFL Draft WR talent.
Tucker Kraft caught six of nine targets for 53 yards and one touchdown (17% target share). 79% route participation (second highest on the team).
Kraft singles baby.
We have arrived. The Packers second-year tight end caught both of his red-zone targets. He is tied for the NFL lead among TEs in red-zone targets (4). If you can trade Mark Andrews for Kraft…You do it.
Dontayvion Wicks caught five of 13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns (24% target share). Christian Watson left the game with an injury. Wicks saw 10 of his targets in the second half alone with three coming in the red zone. 200 air yards as Love was chucking it aggressively to Wicks to get the Packers back in the game. The breakout was delayed because of Love’s injury. But with Love back and Watson on the injury shelf, the Wicks is on fire. The Packers will play the Rams and Cardinals in their next two contests. Great matchups for the Packers offense to COOK.
Erick All caught all four targets for 28 yards (13% target share). Death, taxes, Erick All with four caches on four targets. All is still behind Mike Gesicki in routes run, but there’s no denying that the Bengals love this rookie tight end.
As we saw with Chase Brown‘s usage, I’d expect to see more of All, even if it takes a few weeks. ALL IN.
Players to Sell
Moore caught three of six targets for 22 yards (26% target share) and one touchdown (three red-zone targets). Moore also led the Bears with 69 air yards (47%). Moore was a sell last week, and he remains a sell-high off the touchdown score. Again, hold with solid matchups upcoming if you cannot get anything worthwhile.
Chase Brown carried the ball 15 times for 80 yards and scored two touchdowns.
Zack Moss added 15 carries for 51 yards. It was a true 60-40% split in favor of Moss.
Finally. The Chase Brown breakout GAME we have been waiting for. After three weeks of looking explosive Cincy finally gave him more opportunities and he delivered.
Now the usage overall was interesting, because Brown finally got red zone usage. He scored and had another red zone target close to the end zone he was unable to haul in.
Moss had four carries in the first half to Brown’s two (one for the TD). Both of Brown’s TDs came inside the three-yard line. But Moss still had more receiving usage (three targets in the first half). More targets overall. Regardless, this type of performance is hard to ignore. Both Bengals RBs are producing and Brown is forcing is way onto the field. Chase Brown szn. The time is now to move Moss before a full-fledged Brown takeover.
In the rushing game, both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving led with ten carries each, both gaining 49 yards. Irving added a rushing touchdown (after he failed on his goal-line attempt prior). Mayfield scored the other rushing touchdown. White had three targets to Irving’s two. We knew Irving was going to see more carries, but I wasn’t entirely sure who would see more red-zone opportunities. Six of Irving’s carries came inside the Eagles’ 22-yard line. White had zero red-zone opportunities. White also saw his snaps reduced to 58% with Irving at 42%. Irving saw a season-high in routes run at White’s expense.
D’Andre Swift had 16 carries for 93 yards and scored one touchdown. Swift caught all seven of his targets for 72 yards (30% target share). Best day as a Bear with boosted receiving usage.
Roschon Johnson rushed seven times for 26 yards and also scored one touchdown on one of his two red-zone opportunities.
So, the team did give Johnson more opportunities, as he and Swift split carries six to four in the first half. But it was different from last week were Swift looked more like the starter. Johnson didn’t see his first touch until the second quarter. Swift also played 63% of the snaps to Johnson’s 37% snap share.
Seemed like the coaching staff suggesting more opportunities for Johnson was more of detriment toward Khalil Herbert who played zero offensive snaps. You can probably drop Herbert in shallow formats. However, in deep formats, hold him. I could see him get traded to someone like the Raiders or Cowboys if the Bears see no use for him.
Regardless, Swift managers were gifted an escape route this past Sunday. After being my buy low two weeks ago, Swift is a screaming sell high behind this patchwork OL. He’s not going to command a team-high target share every week nor score touchdowns when the Bears have other designated RBs slated for goal line work. Use the Panthers matchup to ship Swift off.
Rico Dowdle led the backfield again for Dallas. Dowdle had 11 carries for 46 yards, averaging 4.2 YPC, with a long run of 9 yards and one receiving touchdown.
Ezekiel Elliott had just five carries for 19 yards, averaging 3.8 YPC, with a long run of eight yards. Zeke has fallen far on this depth chart, with the Cowboys opting to use FB Hunter Luepke in key situations as both a rusher/receiver. Dowdle’s touchdown saved his day, but the overall usage – 45% snap share, fewer than 11 touches per game – isn’t great. With two tough matchups coming up, I’m not sure how usable he can be. It might be a nice time to sell high on the perceived Dallas RB1. The Cowboys will play the Steelers and Lions over their next two games before a Week 7 bye week.
Jordan Addison caught three of four targets for 72 yards and one receiving touchdown (14% target share). Addison carried once for seven yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He also came back to his normal role, running a route on 76% of the dropbacks. Among the candidates to “sell” in the Vikings offense, Addison is the obvious guy. He still might be suspended later this season. Note that his arrangement and plea hearing are scheduled for Oct. 7 (during the bye week). His production is boosted by touchdowns, and Darnold’s 10% TD rate is going to regress (sorry). Also, he might be pressed for targets with T.J. Hockenson coming back soon. The Jets are a bad matchup for WRs in Week 5. Sell high on Addison.
Kyle Pitts. Say it ain’t so. Was worried about the usage last week and we hit rock bottom. 0 catches on three targets. He had one catch reversed due to a penalty, but it’s not great people. Usage is down for the fourth straight week (67% route participation). It’s not happening for Pitts. We should have known it was over when Pitts was forced to keep Cousins’ No. 8 jersey number.
As for Mark Andrews. Well, you can’t start him anytime soon. That’s pretty self-explanatory. Should you drop him outright? In shallow leagues where you might only roster one tight end, he’s a drop. But in deeper formats where you are streaming the position, I still think Andrews has a place. He’s at his rock-bottom floor at the moment, given his usage, playing time and overwhelming lack of production. The game scripts haven’t helped. But him dropping wide open passes isn’t helping either.
I want to be clear that you shouldn’t just cut Andrews because you’re tilting. He’s still a tight end (bad position) attached to an elite quarterback with a long track record of success. It cannot get worse for Andrews. But if you need to make a move for a starting tight end in Week 5, then Andrews is on the chopping block.
Note that at this point, Likely should be viewed ahead of Andrews. He’s already flashed a ceiling this season and has seen the superior usage to Andrews.
Andrews ran a route on just 41% of the dropbacks. Identical to Agholor and fewer than Justice Hill. It was more than less week, but nowhere near where want our fantasy tight ends. Even “if” the Ravens throw more, there’s no guarantee that Andrews is the main benefactor between Likely and Flowers based on how few routes he is running. His role is different from last season, and as a result, he’s not usable in fantasy until we see something otherwise.
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