A struggling offense hopes to get a jolt from their returning starting quarterback, which would be outstanding for their skill-position players. Sadly, the other two storylines are about teams navigating critical injuries.
Fantasy Football Storylines
Will the Dolphins Get Back on Track in Week 8?
Tua Tagovailoa has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and will practice this week, setting the stage for his return. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Dolphins had a 54% situation-neutral pass rate and a 46% situation-neutral rush rate in the first two weeks this season.
A struggling offense hopes to get a jolt from their returning starting quarterback, which would be outstanding for their skill-position players. Sadly, the other two storylines are about teams navigating critical injuries.
Fantasy Football Storylines
Will the Dolphins Get Back on Track in Week 8?
Tua Tagovailoa has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and will practice this week, setting the stage for his return. According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Dolphins had a 54% situation-neutral pass rate and a 46% situation-neutral rush rate in the first two weeks this season.
The Dolphins weren’t matching last year’s production to open this season, but they had a season-high 20 points in Week 1. Tagovailoa is unquestionably an upgrade over the carousel of hilarity at quarterback in his absence.
Tyreek Hill is the biggest winner. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, through Week 2, Hill was first on the Dolphins in air-yard share (42.0%), target share (22.4%) and first-read percentage (27.1%). Hill parlayed his jaw-dropping underlying data into 10 receptions (5.0 per game), 154 receiving yards (77.0 per game) and one receiving touchdown.
Jaylen Waddle had a 19.3% air-yard share, an underwhelming 11.8% target share but nine receptions (4.5 per game), 150 receiving yards (75.0 per game) and 2.78 yards per route run. Hill is a WR1 again, and Waddle is a high-end WR3, accounting for possible rust in Tua’s return.
De’Von Achane is also a massive beneficiary of Tagovailoa’s return. Through two games, Achane had an 18.4% target share, 13.6% first-read percentage, a team-high 0.39 targets per route run, 14 receptions (7.0 per game), 145 receiving yards (72.5 per game) and one receiving touchdown. Obviously, he’s also a weapon as a runner and has a cushy matchup against Arizona’s run-funnel defense this week.
Raheem Mostert is also a viable low-end RB2 against the Cardinals. The Red Birds have struggled to slow down running backs, and the Dolphins can lean on their one-two punch in the backfield while sprinkling in Jaylen Wright, who is an intriguing bench stash with two paths to an increased role since he’d absorb work if Achane or Mostert were injured.
Jonnu Smith is even a reasonable dart throw at tight end. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Smith’s 25 routes in Week 7 were his second most this year, trailing the 31 he ran in Week 2. He’s exceeded 50 receiving yards three times this year, including posting 62 on five receptions in Week 5 and 96 with a touchdown on seven in Week 7. Smith’s enhanced role after the bye is eye-catching, as Mike McDaniel might make a concerted effort to get the ball to his YAC-machine tight end.
What Will the Seahawks Look Like Without Their Alpha Wide Receiver?
Sadly, DK Metcalf is week to week with a Grade 1 sprained MCL.
A week-to-week injury frequently means at least one missed game, leaving the Seahawks to adjust to life without their alpha wideout against the Bills this week. Metcalf is first on the Seahawks in air-yard share (43.0%), target share (21.8%), first-read percentage (26.2%), end zone targets (six), receiving yards per game (81.1) and second in receptions per game (5.0).
Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should soak up some of Metcalf’s vacated work. Yet, neither is the field-stretching physical specimen Metcalf is. So, neither is a straightforward replacement.
Noah Fant could also receive a bump in production and is in the low-end TE1 bucket. Jake Bobo could be a sneaky deep-league addition or GPP dart throw if the Seahawks continue to play three wideouts and pass at a high rate. The Seahawks had the NFL’s highest situation-neutral pass rate (64%) entering last week, and they played at the second-fastest situation-neutral pace.
The Seahawks have a fantasy-friendly offense if they don’t suffer a structural collapse without Metcalf. Geno Smith‘s floor is lower without his No. 1 wide receiver. Furthermore, they could crank up the rushing attack more frequently since they have a talented one-two punch of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Walker could also absorb more receiving work without Metcalf. The third-year pro entered the season with an underwhelming track record in the receiving game. However, Walker is setting career highs for receptions per game (4.6) and receiving yards per game (32.0).
Walker is a workhorse. Charbonnet could see more change of pace work if the Seahawks run more often and continue to play at a break-neck pace. Regardless, Charbonnet is a premium handcuff.
Can the 49ers Overcome Their Injuries?
Obviously, the 49ers haven’t had Christian McCaffrey to this point this season. CMC isn’t expected back this week but could return after San Francisco’s Week 9 bye. Sadly, even when he returns, the 49ers won’t have their entire allotment of weapons.
Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL and MCL, and the hits didn’t stop there for the 49ers. Instead, Deebo Samuel has a form of pneumonia and no timeline for his return. George Kittle has a sprained foot but will receive a value spike if the injury doesn’t limit him.
Jauan Jennings was out last week with a hip injury but could return this week. He torched the Rams for 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns in Week 3. While that was Jennings’ best effort this season, he also had five receptions for 64 yards in Week 1 and three for 88 in Week 4. This season, the 27-year-old receiver has an 18.9% target share, 24.6% air-yard share, 0.25 targets per route run, 4.2 receptions per game, 67.3 receiving yards per game, 2.91 yards per route run, 23.1% first-read percentage and a team-high for end zone targets (five). Jennings is a high-priority waiver addition in all leagues in which he was dropped.
Ricky Pearsall is also an intriguing waiver option. San Francisco’s first-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft made his season debut last week and had a team-high 81.1% route participation rate. Pearsall had five targets, three receptions and 21 receiving yards but could take a step forward with more opportunities and more practice reps with Brock Purdy and the first-team offense.
Jacob Cowing isn’t a must-add player after running only eight routes in Week 7. Still, the speedy rookie had two receptions for 50 yards, making him someone to track, as Chris Conley and Ronnie Bell are unimposing wideouts ahead of him in routes in Week 7. Sadly, after a turnover-filled performance, Purdy is a much less exciting option without Aiyuk for the rest of the season and likely without Samuel for some period of time. Gamers can cut him in 12-team leagues or smaller. Purdy might re-emerge as a low-end starter or a streamer if Kyle Shanahan can cook something up with the remaining weapons.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
