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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 8
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Geno Smith has been quietly good for fantasy players, ranking as the QB7 this season. The veteran had his first two-passing touchdown performance in Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons, totaling 17.8 fantasy points. He has scored 17.8+ fantasy points in 71.4% of his games this year. Unfortunately, the veteran has struggled against talented defenses, totaling two interceptions and 12.5 fantasy points two weeks ago against the San Francisco 49ers. More importantly, Smith will likely be without top wide receiver DK Metcalf because of a knee injury.
Surprisingly, the veteran quarterback has played better on the road than at home, averaging 15.8% more fantasy points per game away from Seattle. Meanwhile, the Bills have dealt with multiple injuries on defense. However, they’ve held quarterbacks to 14.1 fantasy points per game, the eighth-fewest in the NFL. Buffalo has surrendered 9.9 or fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks in nearly half of their games, including last week. Furthermore, the Bills have given up one or fewer passing touchdowns in 71.4% of their games, including to Kyler Murray and C.J. Stroud.
The beginning of the season brought plenty of promise for this refreshed Cardinals offense with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. potentially able to elevate Kyler Murray back to the lofty levels of his rookie contract, along with Trey McBride being able to take another step forward. Instead, we’ve seen Murray start games incredibly hot and then tail off sharply, with eight first-half passing touchdowns and a single second-half one.
The Dolphins have been excellent at killing the fantasy football potential of games so far, allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and no signal-caller finishing higher than QB19 against them, despite facing Josh Allen, Geno Smith and Anthony Richardson among others. The Dolphins play single-high coverage 55% of the time — a coverage Murray has struggled against, ranking 25th in completion rate over expected (CPOE), according to Fantasy Points. The Cardinals might end up in more of a competitive game if Tua Tagovailoa returns, but it might not matter for Murray’s fortunes.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Bengals Running Backs
Chase Brown has officially taken over as the RB1 in Cincinnati. Since Week 4, Brown has averaged a very solid 16 opportunities per game. In each of the past two games, Brown has also been above a 55% snap rate and a 60% running back rush share. Subsequently, Zack Moss has dipped below 50% in those two games and hasn’t gotten more than nine opportunities in either game. Surprisingly, Moss still has a slight edge in terms of passing-game usage as he’s run a route on nearly 50% of the team’s dropbacks compared to just 25% for Brown.
Accordingly, with how often Cincinnati throws the ball, that will continue to be a valuable role. Moss has also been given more high-value touches (HVTs) than Brown in all but one game this year (Week 6). Fortunately, Brown and Moss are the only two Bengals running backs to have played a single snap this season, making each of them worthwhile fantasy assets, but my money is on Brown to hold the most value long-term.
The Bucs made good on their proclamation to utilize three backs last week. White played 47% of the snaps overall with a 42% snap share on rushing plays, 50% of the passing down snaps, and 50% of the red zone snaps. He finished with 16 touches and 111 total yards (two scores) with the bulk of his production coming through the air (71 receiving yards). The backfield competition has lit a fire under White who is now excelling in tackle-breaking ranking 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 15th in yards after contact per attempt. White should have another productive day as the lead back for the Bucs. Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, and top-eight success rates to zone and gap runs.
Speaking of Javonte Williams, he gets a second consecutive marshmallow matchup after trampling the Saints last week. Now he gets the Panthers, who have yielded a league-high 933 rushing yards and 13 touchdown runs to running backs. Washington’s RBs combined for 130 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Panthers last week. Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combined for 200 rushing yards and three touchdown runs against Carolina in Week 6. Chicago’s D’Andre Swift had 120 scrimmage yards and a touchdown vs. the Panthers in Week 5. Javonte should stay hot.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
George Pickens put up his first WR1 week of the season last week, with a WR3 overall finish. It was his first start of the season with Russell Wilson. It appears the Steelers trust Wilson to utilize more of the passing game than Justin Fields. That will only mean good things for Pickens.
Pickens is averaging 0.43 fantasy points per route run this season, according to Fantasy Points. This runs almost parallel to Deonte Banks. No one is allowing more fantasy points per route run against him this season than Banks (0.42).
Expect Pickens to back up his performance last week with another top-24 outing this week.
In the two games Xavier Worthy has played without Rashee Rice, he has soaked up a 21.2% target share, a 44.2% air-yard share and a 30.8% first-read share, but he has done little to nothing with volume. He has had only 0.80 yards per route run (YPRR) and 22 receiving yards per game. It has been about as bad as you could draw it up for the talented rookie. I don’t expect any better results this week against the Raiders’ surprisingly awesome secondary, allowing the third-fewest PPR points per target and the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Hopefully, fantasy players listened to me and added Rashod Bateman off the waiver wire last week. The veteran was outstanding in the Week 7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He finished the week as the WR2, scoring 20.1 half-PPR fantasy points. Bateman only had four targets but caught all of them for 121 receiving yards and a touchdown. More importantly, the former Minnesota star has been the WR8 over the past three weeks, averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game, totaling 9.1+ in every matchup.
Unfortunately, Zay Flowers didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday (ankle), putting his status for Sunday’s matchup in question. Therefore, Bateman could see an uptick in targets. Meanwhile, the Browns have surrendered 31.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the fifth-most in the NFL. They have been awful at stopping wide receivers lately, giving up 174.3 receiving yards, 1.7 touchdowns and 34.6 fantasy points per game on only 10 receptions per contest over the past three weeks. Cleveland has given up two receiving touchdowns to wide receivers in back-to-back contests.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Sam LaPorta has been straight-up terrible to start the season, averaging fewer than six fantasy points per game on just an 8.4% target share. However, he should get a boost over the next two weeks: Jameson Williams, whose breakout has likely contributed to LaPorta’s declining target share, will miss those two games with a PED suspension. Unfortunately for LaPorta managers, it’s hard to trust him in the first of those two opportunities, as the Titans are the second-worst matchup for fantasy tight ends, giving up just 4.5 points per game — that’s even less than LaPorta’s miserable average.
A role on an elite offense (especially with Williams out) means LaPorta isn’t a must-bench… but just about any other player with a target share below 10% in this matchup wouldn’t even crack my top 20 tight ends.
Over the last two games, Jonnu Smith has turned in some valuable fantasy production, hauling in 12 catches for 158 receiving yards and a score. The 19.1 half-PPR points Smith scored on Sunday nearly matched the 20.9 half-PPR points he had scored in his first five games combined. That said, Smith has run a route on more than 50% of dropbacks in each of the last two games, something he only did once in the first four games.
Another hesitation I have with trusting that this recent production will continue is the looming return of Tua Tagovailoa. In the past two seasons with Tagovailoa at quarterback, the Dolphins have targeted tight ends at an 11.9% rate and 8.9% rate, both the lowest in those two years. I had some optimism about Smith prior to the season that quickly went away, and now I find myself even more confused. In the end, I’m more skeptical of the increased usage and think it’s more likely he’s phased back out of the offense when Tagovaoiloa returns.
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