FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
Fantasy players likely don’t have a better option at quarterback on their roster than Josh Allen this week. Therefore, temper your expectations if forced to start the superstar quarterback in Week 6. Allen is the QB5 for the year, averaging 18.8 fantasy points per game. He has scored 30.9+ points in two contests. By comparison, the veteran has averaged 150 passing yards and 10.6 fantasy points per game in the other three contests, totaling one passing touchdown and 22 fantasy points over the past two weeks.
Unfortunately, Allen’s struggles will continue Monday night against the Jets. New York has completely shut down quarterbacks in 2024. They have surrendered 7.9 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the second-fewest in the NFL. The Jets have given up the second-fewest passing touchdowns (two), passing yards (806) and adjusted completion percentage (64.7%). New York has held quarterbacks to 127.7 passing yards and six fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. Allen has had one or fewer passing touchdowns in three of the past four games against the Jets.
The Jets throw the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL (64.2%). The issue is that Aaron Rodgers‘ completion percentage is on pace to be one of the worst of his career (61%). The QB pressure rate (27.8%) and sacks allowed (13) are above average for the Jets. They are, however, 25th in the NFL in separation per target (3.4), and Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard will need help from the new scheme post-Robert Saleh to get open and help Rodgers complete more passes. New York has fallen from fifth overall to 21st in EPA/pass (-0.18) since Week 3.
Bucky Irving has already pushed himself into a timeshare in the backfield, sporting snap shares of 42% and 43% in Week 4 and Week 5, respectively. His playing time should substantially surge if White’s foot keeps him out this week. Yet, Irving could also see an uptick in playing time if White’s foot hinders his performance, even if he can gut it out.
Irving has excelled as a runner in his rookie campaign. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 59 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts this year, Irving is seventh in yards per carry (5.61), seventh in explosive run percentage (9.1%), tied for sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.25), 10th in yards before contact per attempt (2.66) and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (2.95). He’s averaged 49.4 rushing yards per game with one rushing touchdown, 1.6 receptions per game and 9.2 receiving yards per game.
Irving’s matchup is nicer than meets the eye. The Saints have a pass-funnel defense. Per RotoViz’s pace app, New Orleans is tied for the second-lowest situation-neutral rush rate (36%) against them. However, per Pro Football Reference, the Saints have coughed up 89.8 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry to running backs this season. They’ve also permitted them three rushing touchdowns, 4.2 receptions per game, 35.4 receiving yards per game and 8.4 yards per reception.
The Jags are on to something with Tank Bigsby as their lead RB. In the last two games, Bigsby passed Travis Etienne in rushing yardage (272), matched him in rushing touchdowns (two), and nearly doubled him up in yards per carry (8.0). The Jags are 25th in run rate (38.5%) but are second in rushing yards per play (5.7). Doug Pederson may implement the run game more with this trend, and Bigsby is the most likely focal point.
The Titans’ backfield has consistently been a 60-40 split in favor of Tony Pollard, who averages 15.2 rush attempts per game and 4.0 targets compared to Tyjae Spears‘s 6.7 rushes and 3.0 targets. Pollard looks a much better player than he did in 2023 when he was coming off a fractured fibula suffered at the end of the 2022 season. He has broken 10 tackles in four games after breaking 19 in all of 2023 combined. Pollard also already has two games over 100 total yards, something he managed only four times in the whole of 2023. Three different running backs have gone over 100 total yards against the Colts, including, most recently, Tank Bigsby in Week 5. This should be another strong week for Pollard.
Only 10 wide receivers have played on 100% of their team’s offensive snaps in a given week so far this season: DeVonta Smith, Allen Lazard (lol), DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Malik Nabers, Andrei Iosivas (lol), three Falcons and Ja’Lynn Polk in Week 5. After averaging a 55.3% route participation rate across the first three weeks of the season, Polk has now run 84.2% of available routes over the last two weeks.
Of course, this hasn’t turned into much production yet. The rookie’s career-high in fantasy points is still from Week 2… a game in which he had 12 receiving yards. However, Polk has been seeing targets over the last two weeks, with a solid 19.7% target share and an elite 45.2% air yards share. The fact he has caught just four of those 13 targets for 43 yards isn’t great, but the usage is.
Most importantly, there’s reason to believe Polk’s efficiency will improve. Not only is he a 22-year-old rookie who will improve as the season goes on, but the Patriots will eventually have to turn to Drake Maye. The hype over a supposed change in messaging from head coach Jerod Mayo indicating Maye will start as soon as Week 6 may be overblown, but smoke usually means fire. Polk is already locked in as the top receiver on this team, so any sort of spark Maye can provide may be enough to fully begin his fantasy breakout.
This Amari Cooper situation is getting out of control. Once again, he had a massive number of air yards — 183 in Week 5. This time, they only resulted in 60 receiving yards because he has the corpse of Deshaun Watson throwing him the football every week. Amari Cooper leads the NFL in air yards with 653 — 83 more than Rashid Shaheed. He also is first in unrealized air yards with 344. A full 53% of his air yards have been either uncatchable or dropped. It’s simply unreal at this point.
Cooper is third in targets, 11th in target share and first in routes run. Those numbers plus the air yards should be generating top-five receiver numbers. However, Cooper is 86th in yards per route run and 35th in total fantasy points. The only reason he is that high is because of one week where he scored more than 20 points. Otherwise, it’s been eight points or fewer every week. I think Deshaun Watson is broken and can’t see how Cooper can maintain even WR2 status unless he continues to have overwhelming volume every single week.
Jayden Reed has a huge plus-matchup this week that can allow him to finish in the top 6-8 of the position in Week 6. Reed has been on fire this season and will potentially have fewer target competition this week due to the injury to Christian Watson and the team issues surrounding Romeo Doubs.
Reed is also managing 0.66 fantasy points per route run, according to Fantasy Points. This is the highest total of any wide receiver playing in Week 6.
He is up against Kei’Trel Clark, who is giving up 0.45 fantasy points per route run against him so far this season. This is the most allowed by a cornerback playing in Week 6. He is also being targeted on 25% of routes run against him. This again, is the most allowed by a cornerback playing in Week 6.
In summary, you have the man with the most fantasy points per route run of any receiver this season up against the corner who is allowing the most fantasy points per route run against him. This simple equation can only lead to one outcome — plenty of fantasy points for Reed.
Cade Otton is on the rise. His roster percentage rose from 15% to 37% in just one week. Why? The first two weeks of the 2024 season started slowly for Otton, even though the Tampa Bay offense has been humming since just about day one. In Weeks 1 and 2, Cotton combined for just four targets, one catch and five yards. But in Week 3, that all changed. In Weeks 3 through 5, he has combined for 21 targets, 16 catches and 143 yards.
The Buccaneers have made a much more concerted effort to get Otton the ball, while still not making Mike Evans and Chris Godwin suffer as a result. The outcome has been an offense that is second in the league in passing touchdowns per game, third in team completion percentage and first in passing touchdowns as a percentage of scores.
Among tight ends, Otton now ranks eighth in targets, fourth in route participation and fourth in red-zone targets. With that kind of usage, big days will be ahead in one of the pass-friendliest offenses we have seen in 2024.
Dalton Schultz has been on the outside looking in this year. Houston hasn’t leaned on him much, but that could change this week. Schultz is the TE25 in fantasy points per game with an 11.6% target share, 0.77 yards per route run (YPRR) and an 11.5% first-read share. He has two red-zone targets this season. New England has the sixth-highest rate of two-high this season (51.3%). Against two-high this season, Schultz only has an 11% target share and an 11% first-read share. Last year, against two-high, he was second on the team in targets per route run (TPRR) at a rate of 25% and first-read share (18.5%) with a strong 1.79 YPRR. The matchup this week also leans in the direction of Houston, featuring the tight end position. New England has allowed the third-highest yards per reception and the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
