The make-or-break season is upon us. Every week the season goes on builds the pressure that your fantasy start sit decisions bring with them. Ahead of Week 8, with all 32 teams playing, these are the riskiest and safest starts.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 8 of the fantasy football season.
Week 8 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) @ Dolphins
The beginning of the season brought plenty of promise for this refreshed Cardinals offense with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. potentially able to elevate Kyler Murray back to the lofty levels of his rookie contract, along with Trey McBride being able to take another step forward. Instead, we’ve seen Murray start games incredibly hot and then tail off sharply, with eight first-half passing touchdowns and a single second-half one.
The Dolphins have been excellent at killing the fantasy football potential of games so far, allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and no signal-caller finishing higher than QB19 against them, despite facing Josh Allen, Geno Smith and Anthony Richardson among others. The Dolphins play single-high coverage 55% of the time — a coverage Murray has struggled against, ranking 25th in completion rate over expected (CPOE), according to Fantasy Points. The Cardinals might end up in more of a competitive game if Tua Tagovailoa returns, but it might not matter for Murray’s fortunes.
Kyler Murray when Marvin Harrison Jr is wide open: pic.twitter.com/uxI4kuIvBh
— Michael Cima (@Ci_World) October 22, 2024
Chris Olave (WR – NO) @ Chargers
We’re a long way from the fun days of the opening two weeks when the Saints looked like one of the more forward-thinking and fun offenses in the league. Since then, injuries have ravaged the offense, depleting a below-average offensive line to an even greater level and harming the Saints at nearly all levels. Chris Olave has had a bumpy start to the season with only one top-20 performance so far, as the offense flowed through Rashid Shaheed instead.
With Shaheed out for the season, Olave has the chance to change that, if he can clear concussion protocol. However, it’s not like Olave returns to a perfect situation with Spencer Rattler at quarterback and the Chargers on top. The Chargers rank eighth in FTN’s pass defense DVOA metric and have allowed the third-fewest wide receiver fantasy points, giving up a single top-20 finish through six games.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) @ Patriots
The Patriots aren’t a good defense this year but they’ve managed to deflate games often enough that it kills fantasy football ceiling outcomes. Christian Gonzalez is one of the better shadow corners in the league. When these two teams met in Week 3, Garrett Wilson was held to a WR29 fantasy finish.
Wilson is dealing with additional target competition from Davante Adams, who saw nine targets in his Gang Green debut, and unlike, Wilson didn’t directly contribute to two turnovers. Wilson is also facing increased competition for touches from Breece Hall, who has seen an uptick in his usage since Robert Saleh was relieved of his duties. Wilson will likely be one of the most boom-or-bust players in the league for the rest of the year.
Me if the #Jets were ever dumb enough to trade Garrett Wilson.. pic.twitter.com/gbmE3eT0MA
— Christa ???? (@thatssochrista_) October 20, 2024
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR) @ Broncos
It all looked to be coming up perfectly for Diontae Johnson after Bryce Young was benched and Andy Dalton took to the lineup. Johnson was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in consecutive weeks, seeing a whopping 27 targets, but as the games kept coming, the Panthers crumbled against mildly good pass defenses.
Johnson has had only one top-50 finish since then (WR12 in Week 6). The Broncos should have Patrick Surtain returning to their starting lineup, shoring up a pass defense ranked fourth in DVOA and that has given up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
Week 8 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) vs. Bears
The Commanders blew the doors off the Panthers in a convincing manner, even without Jayden Daniels for the vast majority of the game. While the Bears aren’t as soft an opponent, we can feel confident starting Brian Robinson Jr. again this week. Robinson Jr. had eight first-half touches compared to Austin Ekeler‘s four, while the game was still somewhat within the reach of the Panthers.
Robinson Jr. has scored six touchdowns in six games, finishing as a top-24 running back in every single one of them. The Bears lead the league in run-funnel rate, which is determined by looking at how good their pass defense is and comparing it to their run defense. The Bears’ pass defense ranks second in DVOA, while their run defense ranks 24th. It is far easier to run than pass on them.
Thought on Bears-Commanders: Bears should be a huge run funnel. 2nd in pass defense DVOA, 24th vs run. Mariota and Daniels both open up the run by being mobile and bringing QB run danger. Needs to be a big day for Brian Robinson.
— Aaron Schatz ???? (@ASchatzNFL) October 23, 2024
Jordan Mason (RB – SF) vs. Cowboys
The beaten-up Niners play a Cowboys side hoping to find themselves after their bye week for the second year running. Their big hope will rest on if they’ve been able to sort out their pitiful run defense. The Cowboys have allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (10) and sixth-most rushing yards per game (143.2) along with the fourth-most running back fantasy points this year.
With Brandon Aiyuk suffering a torn ACL and MCL and Deebo Samuel dealing with pneumonia-like symptoms that hospitalized him briefly, this feels like another week for Jordan Mason to see a large number of touches, despite him only seeing 13.6 over the previous three weeks. Mason started the season in red-hot form with touchdowns in three of the first four games, but he hasn’t found the end zone since then. With the matchup and situation trending in Mason’s favor, don’t be surprised if he finds his way back into the end zone in Week 8.
Drake London (WR – ATL) @ Buccaneers
A solid Week 7 performance for Drake London could have been even better if a potential touchdown had not been dropped, but as it was, London still managed to score one touchdown and 18.3 PPR points. London is averaging 19.3 points per game, excluding Week 1, where Kirk Cousins looked incredibly rusty. He has scored one fewer touchdown in seven games than he had in the previous two campaigns combined.
The Bucs are allowing the sixth-most wide receiver fantasy points and were consistently roasted by Rashod Bateman in Week 7. They have allowed three top-three wide receiver finishes through seven games. London has firmly established himself as the top option on the Falcons and is on the cusp of becoming a true elite wide receiver.
Make that FIVE touchdowns for Drake London in his last SIX games ????pic.twitter.com/w7v5sLSENj
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 20, 2024
David Njoku vs. Ravens
A few things about the Cleveland Browns feel particularly stable right now with the news coming down on Wednesday that not only would they have a new starting quarterback for the game against the Ravens in Jameis Winston, but they’d also have a new offensive play-caller in Ken Dorsey as well. Dorsey, for what it’s worth, was much maligned and run out of Buffalo a year ago, but there are plenty of people who do believe in his play-calling abilities. Whether he’s better than Kevin Stefanski remains to be seen.
In the Browns’ first game without Amari Cooper, David Njoku saw a massive 14 targets, catching 10 for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. The Ravens have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, giving up five top-12 performances in seven games. Njoku might be volatile with Winston at quarterback, but volume should sustain him for the most part.
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