As we get deeper and deeper into the season, usage trends and defensive looks become clearer. As we enter Week 7, these are the riskiest and safest starts.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 7 of the fantasy football season.
Week 7 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX) vs. Patriots
There have been moments this year where Christian Kirk looked like an absolute value once again, but then others where he looks like a roster clogger, someone you want to start but rarely gives you what you’re hoping for. Kirk has had two top-24 weekly finishes with totals of 15.9 and 19.1 PPR points but has also had three games below seven points, and it can’t all be put on Trevor Lawrence‘s poor play.
Kirk is averaging the second-fewest yards after catch per reception of his career (3.6), which is the lowest mark he’s hit since arriving in Jacksonville three years ago. Kirk is also averaging the fewest yards before contact he’s had since 2024 with 8.7. According to Fantasy Points, Kirk is still getting open with the second-highest slot separation rate among WRs who’ve run 100+ routes, but he’s ineffective when the ball comes his way. The Patriots have allowed over 3.5 PPR points to just one slot receiver this year — Jaxon Smith-Njigba — who did manage 23.7. On the whole, though, this defense has done a good job controlling that part of the field and Kirk could struggle this weekend.
Trevor Lawrence doesn’t deserve this. pic.twitter.com/lQ1CXxRpvR
— Michael Barbour (@barbour_mike) October 13, 2024
Josh Downs (WR – IND) vs. Dolphins
Since Josh Downs returned to the Colts’ starting lineup he’s either tied or led the team in target share every week, averaging 26.3% across the four games. Of course, it’s impossible to not caveat this against the fact Joe Flacco has played two of those full games and 80% of the snaps in the third game. Downs has been the WR8, WR17 and WR12 in those games, averaging 19.2 PPR points.
However, Anthony Richardson will be throwing him the ball again, and he ranks 37th among 37 quarterbacks with 50 dropbacks in pass completion rate (50%). Being below Bryce Young in any statistic is not a place you want to be. Richardson also ranks 30th in passing yards per game and 36th in catchable throw percentage (64.9%). The Dolphins are also a run funnel defense, fairing ok against the pass but awful against the run, ranking 31st in FTN’s run defense DVOA. With Jonathan Taylor also trending toward playing, I would avoid starting Downs when making fantasy start sit decisions.
George Pickens (WR – PIT) vs. Jets
The presumed benching of Justin Fields for Russell Wilson would be enough reason for concern regardless of opponent but George Pickens will now be playing against the Jets, whose defense ranks 11th in pass defense DVOA. Admittedly, the Jets’ defense has regressed somewhat this year, which isn’t untypical for a defense year over year. The drop from the third-best in 2023 to 11th does make a difference but so far the Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers with only two top-20 performances in six games. Pickens, for his part, has finished no higher than WR23. He has finished as the WR42 or worse in four out of six games and will attempt to display more chemistry with Russell Wilson than he ever managed with Fields.
George Pickens on if Russell Wilson or Justin fields should be the starting QB:
"I know the media and the world want to paint me out as a selfish guy but really I'm the most unselfish guy in the world. To me honestly it really don’t matter they’re both good players and they both… pic.twitter.com/cBx2YjWn6v
— Matthew Luciow (@matthewluciow92) October 15, 2024
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) vs. Chargers
The moments of promise around Kyler Murray have been very promising this year but typically they happen early in games and during scripted drives that start their possessions. Things go downhill steadily from there throughout the game. Murray has the third-biggest difference in QB Rating between the first half of games and the second half, according to Fantasy Points, with a massive difference of 35.5 between the two.
Murray also sees his yards per attempt drop from the seventh-highest in the first half to the seventh-lowest in the second half. Ultimately, we’re just not seeing enough from Murray to keep ranking him as a top-12 option when he’s had four finishes as QB17 or worse, even if the good is very good with two top-five finishes. The Chargers have allowed the sixth-fewest points to quarterbacks, with only… *checks notes again*… Bo Nix finishing as a top-12 quarterback against them, despite facing Patrick Mahomes and Justin Fields among others.
Week 7 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) vs. Raiders
The Rams come out of their bye week and much attention will be paid to what kind of snap share rookie Blake Corum can leverage after seeing his first meaningful snaps on the other side of the bye week. Kyren Williams, for his part, has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, seeing his yards per carry jump from 2.9 over the first three weeks to 4.8 over his last two games.
Williams also has at least one rushing touchdown in every game and added a receiving touchdown, too. Williams is the only running back averaging over 80% of their team snaps, sitting at 84%, 5% clear of the next nearest back. This week’s matchup with the Raiders is far from ominous. Las Vegas ranks 28th in DVOA against the run and allows the ninth-most RB fantasy points, including giving up a top-12 finish in each of their last three games.
Kyren Williams cutting his way through on this Rams Duo run pic.twitter.com/ZJDhcg9HtO
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 29, 2024
Tony Pollard (RB – TEN) vs. Bills
Another running back with a potentially fruitful matchup is Tony Pollard, who faces a Buffalo Bills defense allowing the second-most running back fantasy points after giving up big days to Breece Hall (RB6), Derrick Henry (RB1), Justice Hill (RB8), De’Von Achane (RB2) and James Conner (RB8). Pollard, for his part, has been one of the few bright spots in this Titans offense, averaging 15.2 PPR points and having scored a third of the team’s touchdowns. Tyjae Spears is dealing with a hamstring issue and was described as week-to-week by head coach Brian Callahan, which will potentially allow Pollard to see even more volume than the 18.8 touches he’s been averaging.
Chris Godwin (WR – TB) vs. Ravens
The Buccaneers are tied with the Commanders in total points per game (29.7) — a sentence nobody expected to write seven weeks ago. Just behind those two teams is the Baltimore Ravens at 29.5 points per game, as they complete a trio of offenses helping to bail out poor defenses. Chris Godwin is averaging 8.33 targets per game and is the PPR WR1 overall.
It might be tempting to think the Ravens’ defense could be a tough matchup for Godwin, but we’ve seen nothing to that effect from this year with them allowing three top-five WR finishes in the last two weeks to Ja’Marr Chase (WR1), Tee Higgins (WR5) and Terry McLaurin (WR5). The Ravens have given up the most WR fantasy points of any team. We should feel pretty good about the chances for another shootout in Tampa on Monday Night Football.
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