The bye weeks are here, and it’s time to separate the good teams from the bad. If you’ve felt unlucky in your record so far, then now is the time to change things. Last week, we went a perfect four of four on Risky Starts and had only one letdown on the Safe Starts. These are the riskiest and safest starts heading into Week 6. Start the risky ones at your own peril.
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Let’s dive into some risky and safe starts for Week 6 of the fantasy football season.
Week 6 Risky Fantasy Football Starts
Trevor Lawrence (QB — JAC) vs. Chicago Bears
Trevor Lawrence got back on track with his first top-12 finish of the season last week against a weak Colts defense, perhaps the result of a season-low 6.4 aDOT (average depth of target) that coincided with his quickest time to throw of the year (2.35 seconds). Unfortunately for Lawrence, the Bears have allowed the second-fewest QB fantasy points per game, with only C.J. Stroud scoring more than seven points against them (14.3). Chicago’s defense has given up only two passing touchdowns all season and kept three of their five opponents below 170 passing yards. The Jaguars are well accustomed to traveling to London, but that’s likely not enough of an advantage to give Lawrence his second good fantasy performance of the season.
Trevor Lawrence has played 55 career games.
63.4% career passer.
Lawrence's 3 highest completion percentage games have all come against Gus Bradley's Colts:
-2022: 20-of-22 (91%)
-2022: 25-of-30 (83%)
-2024: 28-of-34 (82%)— Kevin Bowen (@KBowen1070) October 8, 2024
Mike Evans (WR — TB) vs. New Orleans Saints
One of the most entertaining battles within the NFL returns this week, as Mike Evans will reunite with his old nemesis, Marshon Lattimore, for a matchup that will get plenty of hype. Evans has scored three touchdowns in his last 11 appearances against the Saints, with only one in the last six. He was also held below 60 receiving yards in eight of those 11 games. Some matchups are overblown, but these two players genuinely dislike each other, and the battle will be box-office. Evans’ loss is sometimes Chris Godwin‘s gain, as Godwin has five touchdowns in the last six meetings of these teams and three games over nine catches. Godwin is the safer bet here. While Evans might have big upside, it’s very hard to trust him against Lattimore. This matchup will be much easier to enjoy if you don’t roster Mike Evans.
Mike Evans in 12 career matchups against Marshon Lattimore:
7 rec-147 yards-1 TD
…
4-86-0
4-64-0
3-61-0 (ejected for fighting)
5-55-0
2-48-1
3-40-0 (injured after 26 snaps)
1-14-0 (injured after just 17 snaps)
1-13-0 (suspended one game for decking Lattimore)
1-3-1
1-2-1
0-0-0 pic.twitter.com/SE7fMnDMk9— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 8, 2024
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB — WAS) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Much of the build-up for the Commanders’ trip to Baltimore has focused on the passing offenses and the weak pass defenses, but we shouldn’t take the running back matchups for granted at the same time. Brian Robinson’s efficiency continues to ping pong, with his yards per carry fluctuating with each week. Robinson has kept himself a top-24 RB by getting at least one touchdown or crossing 100 total yards in every game, but no running back has totaled more than 56 combined yards against the Ravens since Week 1. Baltimore’s defense has also given up a league-low 302 rushing yards at 3.1 yards per carry, which is also the lowest mark of any defense. The Ravens’ defense is a little more suspect against pass-catching running backs, though, as they have allowed four different RBs to go over 24 receiving yards. Receiving back Austin Ekeler is averaging 11.8 points per game on a 29% opportunity share and looked good against the Browns. Reports suggest Brian Robinson was held out of the second half of that game due to a knee injury that he is dealing with, adding to the litany of reasons why this does not profile as a great start.
Week 6 Safe Fantasy Football Starts
Lamar Jackson (QB — BAL) vs. Washington Commanders
Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels are two of the top QBs in scramble rate when trailing and are the top two QBs in total scrambles. That will likely further push the fantasy points up in this one as the QB1 and QB2 go head-to-head. The Ravens average the fifth-most red zone drives per game (4.0) and own the second-best red zone TD success rate (75%) in the league. Jackson is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game and has scored over 23 points in four out of five games. The Ravens are the more pass-heavy team, ranking 11th in neutral pass rate, while the Commanders rank 24th (per Fantasy Points). The Commanders play two high safeties at the fourth-highest rate, and Jackson has taken the second-most deep throws against these looks and is second in fantasy points per dropback against them (0.66). The Commanders also play Cover-2 at the fourth-highest rate, a look against which Lamar ranks second in deep throw rate (29%) and fifth-highest in yards per attempt (10.47). Three of the five quarterbacks to face Washington have finished as top seven QBs that week. Every way we look at this one, it just looks like another great Lamar Jackson week as he carries on his quest for a third MVP award.
Lamar Jackson runs around the pocket like hes training black ops zombies https://t.co/6DkXsVo1iq
— Ron Stewart (@RonStewart_) October 7, 2024
Tony Pollard (RB — TEN) vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Titans’ backfield has consistently been a 60-40 split in favor of Tony Pollard, who averages 15.2 rush attempts per game and 4.0 targets compared to Tyjae Spears‘s 6.7 rushes and 3.0 targets. Pollard looks a much better player than he did in 2023 when he was coming off a fractured fibula suffered at the end of the 2022 season. He has broken 10 tackles in four games after breaking 19 in all of 2023 combined. Pollard also already has two games over 100 total yards, something he managed only four times in the whole of 2023. Three different running backs have gone over 100 total yards against the Colts, including, most recently, Tank Bigsby in Week 5. This should be another strong week for Pollard.
Drake London (WR — ATL) vs. Carolina Panthers
The simplest breakout to see heading into this year was Drake London, who finished 2023 with a 23% target share but only 110 targets because the Falcons were so run-heavy, their quarterback play was awful and their head coach … well, it was Arthur Smith. This year, London is averaging a 26% target share, but it’s far more meaningful with him on pace for 149.6 targets, 1,203.6 yards and 10.2 touchdowns. For reference, that would have made London the WR4 overall in 2023. In Week 6, London faces a Carolina side that allows the 10th-most wide receiver fantasy points and has given up 16 or more PPR points to six different wide receivers.
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