Bye Weeks are here and it’s time to separate the good teams from the bad. Now is the time to change things if you’ve felt unlucky. These are the riskiest and safest starts heading into Week 5. Start the risky ones at your own peril.

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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Players (Week 5)

Week 5 Risky Starts

Travis Etienne (RB – JAX) vs. Colts

In Week 4, Travis Etienne was given the first snap of the game against the Texans. He was then consigned to the bench for a rather large chunk of the first quarter while Tank Bigsby was given an extensive run. On half as many attempts as Etienne’s 47 rushing touches, Bigsby is easily out-carrying Etienne with 8.19 yards per carry to Etienne’s 4.55. Bigsby is also dwarfing Etienne in explosive play rate (19% to 4%), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29 vs 0.17) and yards after contact per attempt (5.29 to 2.89).

The Jaguars probably aren’t about to turn over the majority of the workload to Bigsby anytime soon, but it’s worth considering when deciding how reliable Etienne can be. The bye weeks make it tricky to bench a player like Etienne but the confidence levels are waning in him after he is yet to finish inside the top 20 running backs and has seen his touches drop for three straight weeks. He’s a risky fantasy start sit option.

Travis Etienne after 1 carry: pic.twitter.com/CLJgdw4pu9

— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) September 29, 2024

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA) vs. Patriots

We always knew De’Von Achane was likely to regress after boasting a league-leading 7.8 yards per carry in his rookie year, but nobody probably foresaw Achane ranking 44th among 50 running backs with 25+ attempts, with a lowly 3.11 yards per carry. Miami ranks dead last in rushing DVOA (Defensive Value Over Adjusted). Achane’s 3.8% explosive play rate is down drastically from his 12.6% rate in 2023.

The Patriots aren’t a great defense this year, but they’re stronger against the run than the pass, allowing the seventh-lowest yards per carry (4.0) and giving up the ninth-fewest total yards, despite frequently letting opponents be in run-heavy game scripts. With Raheem Mostert nearing a return to the lineup, things could get even worse for Achane.

Devon Achane as a lead blocker does not glorify God in any way https://t.co/jYx12ywA7A

— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) October 1, 2024

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) vs. Vikings

Another underperforming star is Breece Hall, who on top of having Braelon Allen eat into his snaps, is also looking slow and sluggish when he does touch the ball. Allen is out-carrying Hall 4.81 yards per carry to 3.11 and only averages nine fewer yards per game than Hall’s 43.5 despite seeing half as many touches.

The Vikings’ run defense is the best in the league, according to DVOA, and they allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Hall has finished as a top-five running back once through four games. He will most likely improve upon his Week 4 RB53 finish, but it certainly doesn’t feel like a get-right spot.

Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) vs. Saints

Through four games, Patrick Mahomes’ average weekly finish is QB16, with zero performances inside the top 10. Those numbers would be concerning enough if it wasn’t for the loss of Rashee Rice, who was leading the league in yards after the catch. Mahomes is currently dead last among 37 quarterbacks to have 25+ dropbacks in average depth of target (aDOT), with a miserable 5.4 mark.

Rice made up for Mahomes’s low aDOT by being able to create at a high level after the catch. Without Rice for the foreseeable future, Mahomes will rely on 35-year-old Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy to move the ball. Through four games, the Saints are allowing the fourth-fewest QB fantasy points without a single quarterback scoring over 13 points. If you have a better option it’s time to use him.

Week 5 Safe Starts

Derrick Henry (RB – BAL) vs. Bengals

Fresh off rushing for 199 yards against the Buffalo Bills, Derrick Henry’s renaissance tour heads to Cinncinati to face a Bengals defense that just allowed Chuba Hubbard to rush for 5.8 yards per carry and finish as the RB7. The Bengals have given up the eighth-most rushing yards per game and face the Ravens at a time when they seem set on establishing their identity as a smack you in the face run first team once again.

Todd Monken has put Lamar Jackson under center more often this year, which helps Henry get up to speed when he receives the ball. This change has helped Henry to lead the league in rushing yards through four games and have more rushing yards individually than 17 teams have managed from all of their players.

With his 199-yard, 2-TD game, Derrick Henry is on the cusp of two major milestones:

???? Needs 18 yards to reach 10,000 career rushing yards
???? One TD away from 100 career total touchdowns

(by @FanDuel) pic.twitter.com/ugbcZk1vks

— NFL (@NFL) October 1, 2024

Jayden Reed (WR – GB) vs. Rams

Through four games, the Rams have given up WR1 overall finishes to Jauan Jennings & Marvin Harrison Jr., as well as a WR5 finish to Jameson Williams. The Rams, unsurprisingly, have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and rank 31st in DVOA. They have also allowed a league-high 8.1 yards per net pass attempt.

In the two games Jayden Reed played with Jordan Love he has finished as the PPR WR1 and WR2, putting up 312 yards and three touchdowns combined. The Packers might spread the ball around plenty but when Reed has it in his hands he’ll be too much for this weak Rams defense.

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) vs. Cardinals

The Niners’ weekly spike rates seemed linked to the types of defenses they faced in 2023 with Deebo Samuel dominating against zone-based looks and Brandon Aiyuk having his best days against man-coverage. In 2024, however, it seems we can free ourself of the expectations for Aiyuk, at least. Samuel, though, continues to play best against zone. It makes sense for Samuel to dominate against these looks, as he finds the soft-spots in coverage and sits in them and then creates yards after the catch.

The good news for Samuel is that Arizona plays zone looks 73% of the time and allows the fourth-highest completion rate in such looks. With Aiyuk struggling and Christian McCaffrey still sidelined, this sets up as a classic Samuel week, making him a safe fantasy start sit option.