Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Lineup Advice
With Dalton under center, Johnson has been cooking with a 32.1% target share, a 57.2% air-yard share, 2.89 YPRR, and 43.1% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, Johnson has been the WR3 in fantasy points per game. In just those two games, he has seen an insane six end-zone targets. Chicago has the tenth-highest single high rate (56.5%). Since Week 3 against single-high, Johnson has seen his target share balloon to 38.3% with a 69.7% air-yard share, 3.45 YPRR, and a 50% first-read share. Chicago will be a formidable challenge for Johnson. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson will run about 85% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8% catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6% catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
Cooper is the WR46 in fantasy points per game, and much of that was scored against the Giants in Week 3. Outside of his eruption game against New York, Cooper hasn’t surpassed eight PPR points in any week. Cooper continues to soak up the volume, though, with a 25% target share, a 46.8% air-yard share, and a 30.2% first-read share despite producing just 0.92 YPRR and 37 receiving yards per game. Cooper is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with three. The Commanders have the fifth-highest two high rate in the NFL (60.6%). Against two high, Cooper’s target share and first-read shares have dipped to 15.4% and 16.3%. Washington has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers, but it is questionable if Cooper will take advantage in Week 5.
Aiyuk has disappointed so far this season as the WR67 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn a 19.7% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, and a 21.8% first-read share while producing 1.34 YPRR. I’m not worried about Aiyuk at all, though. His per-route metrics are still amazing, and better days are ahead. Among 111 wide receivers, he ranks fifth in separation and first in route win rate. Arizona has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 60.5% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverages, Aiyuk has only a 17.4% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, 1.24 YPRR, and a 21.2% first-read share. That first-read rate is second on the team, behind only Deebo Samuel. Working in Aiyuk’s favor is the fact that Arizona’s outside corners have allowed the fourth-highest PPR points per target this season. Last year, Aiyuk was the team’s go-to receiver against Cover 3 and Cover 4, with a team-leading 24.4% target share, 3.31 YPRR, and a 29.5% first-read share. Aiyuk will run about 84% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (61.5% catch rate and 120.2 passer rating). The big Aiyuk game could happen in Week 5.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.