Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start em, Sit em Lineup Advice
Lockett is the WR51 in fantasy points per game, but he has displayed a decently high floor. He has at least four receptions and 61 receiving yards in three of his five games, but he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, so it’s pulling his fantasy status down. Lockett has had a 14.6% target share, a 22.9% air-yard share, 1.62 YPRR, and an 18.1% first-read share. Over the last two games, San Francisco has leaned more into single-high coverage with the 12th-highest rate (61.1%). Against single-high, Lockett’s numbers have remained largely unchanged while noting that his first-read share has increased mildly to 19.4%. Lockett will run about 72% of his routes against Isaac Yiadom (68.8% catch rate and 115.9 passer rating) and Charvarius Ward (56.5% catch rate and 99.5 passer rating). Lockett is a sit this week against a pass defense that has allowed the second-lowest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
The Brandon Aiyuk bounceback game occurred last week as he finished as the WR10 in weekly PPR scoring which pulled him up to WR47 in fantasy points per game for the season. Aiyuk now has a 22.8% target share, a 26.6% air-yard share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 22.1% first-read share while ranking second in end-zone targets (four). Seattle has the seventh-highest single-high rate (59.1%). Aiyuk leads the 49ers in TPRR (25%) and YPRR (2.68) against single-high while ranking second in first-read share (26.4%). Aiyuk will run about 81% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72% catch rate and 86.1 passer rating) and Tre Brown (66.7% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Seattle has been run of the mill against perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most receiving yards per game.
Samuel is the WR35 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 20.5% target share, a 21.3% air-yard share, and a 25.3% first-read share with 1.89 YPRR. He is fourth on the team with five red-zone targets and he hasn’t drawn an end-zone target. Seattle has the seventh-highest single-high rate (59.1%). Samuel ranks third on the team in target share (21.7%), second in YPRR (2.24), and first in first-read share (29.3%) against single-high. His usage against single-high has dropped some recently as Aiyuk has resumed his status as the go-to receiver for this offense against single-high. Since Week 4, against single-high, Samuel is fourth in TPRR (18%) and second in YPRR (2.03). Aiyuk should lead the way again this week against Seattle. Samuel will run about 52% of his routes against Devon Witherspoon (72% catch rate and 86.1 passer rating)and Tre Brown (66.7% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Seattle has been run of the mill against perimeter wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most receiving yards per game.
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If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
