Only Lamb has provided anything close to a satisfying return on investment so far. But even Lamb has been a mild disappointment. He’s currently WR19 in fantasy points per game.
The most predictable thing about fantasy football is its unpredictability.
We’re a little more than a month into the NFL regular season, and we’ve already seen some mind-blowing developments. Two of them stand out to me.
We covet early first-round picks in fantasy drafts, but the early part of the first round in 2024 drafts turned out to be a minefield.
Only Lamb has provided anything close to a satisfying return on investment so far. But even Lamb has been a mild disappointment. He’s currently WR19 in fantasy points per game.
McCaffrey still hasn’t played in a game and might not see action until around Week 10. He’s been dealing with Achilles tendinitis and calf issues — a problem the 49ers did a great job of keeping under wraps during fantasy draft season. (Thanks, guys!) We knew CMC had some sort of leg issue, but McCaffrey himself assured the media that’s he would be ready for Week 1. Whoops.
Hill’s value has been torpedoed by the loss of Dolphins QB to a concussion. Reports suggest that Tua could be starting for Miami again as early as Week 8. He’s gone four straight games without a touchdown and hasn’t reached 70 receiving yards in any of those games.
Hall is averaging 39.4 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry. He’s been productive as a pass catcher, but Hall is currently RB21 in PPR fantasy points per game and has ostensibly been outplayed by his rookie backup, Braelon Allen.
Robinson hasn’t flourished as expected in Atlanta’s post-Arthur Smith offense. He’s RB15 in PPR fantasy points per game, and fantasy managers are still complaining about Robinson’s usage, as the Falcons continue to give a healthy dose of work to backup RB Tyler Allgeier.
So, yeah, not ideal if you were holding a top-five draft pick this year and followed the chalk.
The other mind-blowing development that stands out to me: When the Kansas City Chiefs come out of their Week 6 bye, they’ll be rolling with Kareem Hunt as their lead running back and JuJu Smith-Schuster as their lead receiver.
Obviously, we were expecting Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice to have those roles for the Chiefs. It’s not shocking that Pacheco and Rice both went down with major injuries — it’s an unfortunate reality that good NFL players often get hurt — but it is shocking that Hunt and Smith-Schuster now look like valuable fantasy assets after basically being left for dead by the fantasy community during draft season. (And yes, Xavier Worthy investors, Smith-Schuster is likely to lead the Chiefs in WR targets the rest of the way.)
Fantasy football is a wild game, friends. We can put great effort into gathering the information we need to make optimal decisions, but ultimately, every NFL season is a bucking bronco, and we’re just trying to hold onto the reins and stay upright for as long as we can.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. (Hat tip to PFF’s Nate Jahnke for the snap-count data.)
It might be safe to dip your toe back into the Caleb Williams waters. He had his best fantasy performance to date last week against the Panthers, throwing for 304 yards and two touchdowns while adding 34 rushing yards. Now he travels to London for a matchup against England’s adopted team, the Jaguars, who have allowed a league-high 23.1 fantasy points per game to QBs and are yielding 8.1 yards per pass attempt. I have Williams slotted at QB12 in this week’s rankings.
Doesn’t it seem strange that we’re getting a breakout season from Lions WR Jameson Williams (289 yards and two TDs through four games), and yet Jared Goff only ranks QB17 in fantasy points per game? But Goff might be the victim of the Lions’ success. Detroit is 3-1, and Goff has averaged just 23 pass attempts in the Lions’ three wins. It’s possible Detroit will go run-heavy once again this week as favorites on the road against the Cowboys and their shaky run defense. But Lions-Cowboys at least has some shootout potential. Goff checks in at QB15 in this week’s rankings.
I don’t think it would be completely crazy to plug Drake Maye into your lineup in his NFL debut (although hopefully you have better options). Maye’s passing numbers against the Texans probably won’t be pretty. But Maye is a capable and very aggressive runner. A rookie quarterback making his first NFL start is probably going to be confused by a lot of the coverages he sees, and the easiest solution is often to just tuck the ball away and run. While it’s highly doubtful that Maye will hit 200 passing yards, I think he has a good chance to run for at least 40 or 50 yards.
If Zack Moss is out this week with what some of my favorite injury doctors believe to be a high-ankle sprain, Chase Brown becomes a must-start. Brown is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He’s averaging 4.07 yards after contact per attempt (per PFF), tops among RBs with at least 40 rushing attempts. It’s mouth-watering to think of Brown operating as the lead RB in a piping-hot Cincinnati offense. The Bengals have scored 33, 34 and 38 points over their last three games and have averaged 417 yards of offense per game over that stretch. Working under the assumption that Moss will be out this week, I’m ranking Brown RB9.
J.K. Dobbins has looked terrific early on and should have fresh legs coming off a bye, but I couldn’t rank him any higher than RB18 this week. Dobbins has averaged 17.7 touches over his last three games, so his usage floor is sturdy. His Week 6 matchup isn’t great, however. Dobbins faces a Denver defense that ranks sixth in DVOA against the run and has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to RBs. The Chargers don’t exactly have an explosive offense. They’ve scored 10 points in each of their last two games. Broncos-Chargers has a Vegas total of 35.5 points, which suggests less-than-stellar TD upside for Dobbins.
Javonte Williams got off to a sluggish start this season, rushing for 23 or fewer yards in each of his first three games. He was up against three good run defenses those weeks: the Seahawks, Steelers and Buccaneers, all of whom rank inside the top 10 in DVOA vs. the run. Things have gotten better for Javonte in the last two weeks. He’s had 18 touches in each of his last two games, with 80 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in Week 4 and 111 yards from scrimmage against the Raiders last week. Javonte is on pace for 58 catches, and the way Sean Payton’s offenses use running backs in the passing game, I wouldn’t be surprised if Javonte finished with 70 or more catches. Play Javonte against the Chargers this week. It’s not an easy matchup, but Javonte should get plenty of touches, and his dual run-catch ability gives him multiple paths to fantasy value.
Rico Dowdle is coming off his best game of the season. He had a season-high 20 carries for 87 yards against a good Pittsburgh defense, adding two catches for 27 yards and a touchdown. Dowdle is the lead back in a good offense, so I have him ranked RB21 despite a matchup against a tough Detroit run defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Dowdle has 10 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns over his last four games, and his pass-catching ability boosts his playability against stingy run defenses.
Rookie Tyrone Tracy had an eye-opening performance last week in place of the injured Devin Singletary (groin), rushing 18 times for 129 yards in the Giants’ upset of the Seahawks. Tracy looked instinctive and decisive as a runner, which is all the more impressive when you consider that he switched over from the WR position just a couple of years ago upon his transfer from Iowa to Purdue. Tracy has an enticing combination of speed and power. He broke four tackles against the Seahawks and had 56 yards after contact. Tracy finished with 47 rushing yards over expected, according to Next Gen Stats — a superb number. But Singletary is back at practice, and there seems to be a decent chance he’ll play this week. I think Tracy will have a role, but the Giants aren’t going to kick Singletary to the curb. He’s a good player himself, and Singletary and Brian Daboll have a history dating back to Daboll’s days as the offensive coordinator in Buffalo. I have Singletary ranked RB24 and Tracy RB38 this week against the Bengals, but Tracy will vault into the top 20 if Singletary isn’t able to suit up.
A popular waiver pickup this week, Tank Bigsby seems to be building momentum in the Jacksonville backfield. He had a season-high 40% snap share last week vs. the Colts, got 13 carries and had 101 rushing yards, along with a 28-yard catch. Travis Etienne has been a less effective runner than Bigsby and is also dealing with a shoulder issue, so it seems as if Bigsby could get enhanced usage Sunday against the Bears in London. The potential problem here is that Bigsby’s long reception last week was his second catch in 22 career games. It’s not as if Bigsby isn’t capable of catching passes — he had 30 catches in his final college season at Auburn. But for whatever reason, pass catching hasn’t been part of Bigsby’s repertoire with the Jags. That makes Bigsby’s weekly value more fragile, especially since the Jaguars aren’t a very good team. What if the Jaguars fall behind by multiple scores? Suddenly they’re forced into a pass-heavy game script, and Bigsby probably isn’t going to have a good day. I have him ranked RB27 this week and view Bigsby as a borderline start/sit.
I’m not telling you to bench Mike Evans, but here are Evans’ stat lines in his last six games against the Saints dating back to 2021: 3-61-0, 1-14-0, 3-61-0, 4-59-0, 3-40-0, 3-70-0. Woof. Evans hasn’t scored a touchdown against the Saints since Week 1 of 2020 — and that 2-yard TD catch was his only reception of the game. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore has had Evans’ number. That’s not to say Evans is doomed to put up mediocre numbers this Sunday in New Orleans, but his recent track record against the Saints has not been rosy.
This is purely a hunch, nothing more: With everyone dumping on him after a lackluster effort Sunday night against the Cowboys, I think George Pickens will bounce back with a big game against the Raiders. The starting outside cornerbacks for Las Vegas, Jack Jones and Jakorian Bennett, are graded 82nd and 88th among the 101 cornerbacks to whom PFF has assigned grades. I’m ranking Pickens as a low-end WR2.
Over the last three weeks, Christian Kirk has quietly been the WR17 in PPR fantasy scoring, averaging 15.9 fantasy points a game over that stretch. Jaguars rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr., who’s been outstanding, might be running a lot of his routes into the coverage of Bears shutdown corner Jaylon Johnson, which might enhance Kirk’s target total. Consider Kirk a high-end WR3.
Mike Clay of ESPN recently noted on Twitter that 45 percent of the passes thrown to Amari Cooper so far this season have been classified as “off target.” Cooper has a 42.6% catch rate and is averaging 4.4 yards per target, which is barely half of his career mark of 8.6 yards per target. As bad as it’s been, though, Cooper is still WR19 in PPR scoring over the last three weeks. He also has a favorable matchup against an Eagles defense that has given up the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs. I have Cooper ranked WR24. Hold your nose and plug him into your starting lineup if injuries and byes leave you with no better options.
Darnell Mooney is coming off a showcase game against the Buccaneers in which he had 16 targets, 9 catches, 105 yards and two touchdowns. Kirk Cousins attempted 58 passes in that game, so we can’t expect that sort of freaky target volume for Mooney on the regular. But Mooney has drawn no fewer than six targets in any of his last four games. He profiles as a high-end WR3 this week in a matchup against the Panthers.
With Malik Nabers set to miss a second straight game after sustaining a concussion in Week 4, Wan’Dale Robinson becomes a must-start against the Bengals. Robinson offers little big-play or TD potential. He’s averaging 7.2 yards per catch and has scored four touchdowns in 26 career games. But Robinson is averaging 9.4 targets and 6.4 receptions a game, and you would imagine that he has an excellent chance of seeing double-digit targets this week against a shaky Bengals defense with Nabers out of action.
Ladd McConkey is an intriguing lineup option this week. Ladd. If the Broncos have ace cover man Patrick Surtain Jr. follow Quentin Johnston around all day, Chargers QB Justin Herbert might elect to take advantage of McConkey’s matchup against Broncos slot corner Ja’Quan McMillan, who’s yielding a 70% catch rate and 0.27 fantasy points per route into his coverage, according to PFF.
Saints WRs Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed go from must-starts to shaky starts with the Saints set to give rookie QB Spencer Rattler his first NFL start in place of the injured Derek Carr (oblique). Rattler is an intriguing prospect, but expecting big passing numbers from a rookie fifth-round pick in his NFL debut seems like wishcasting. It helps that Olave, Shaheed and RB Alvin Kamara account for a huge percentage of the Saints’ targets. Still, I’m not eager to start Olave or Shaheed this week even against a Buccaneers pass defense that was torched for 509 passing yards and four TD passes by Kirk Cousins and the Falcons last week. I have Olave ranked WR37, and Shaheed checks in at WR43.
Can Kyle Pitts duplicate his Week 5 success? I’ll be honest: I have no freaking idea. Pitts had seven catches for 88 yards last week against the Buccaneers, taking advantage of a juiced-up game script for the Falcons’ passing game. The reality is that Pitts’ eight targets last week gave him an uninspiring 13.8 target share, since Kirk Cousins hoisted up 58 passes. But Pitts at least has a good-looking matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to TEs. I’m ranking Pitts TE7.
Dallas Goedert has had 17 catches and 232 yards over his last two games, but the Eagles were missing A.J. Brown in both of those games and DeVonta Smith in one of those games. With Brown and Smith both expected back this week after the Eagles’ bye, the target outlook for Goedert isn’t as bright. He’s still startable in this bleak TE environment, but I’m considering Goedert a low-end TE1 this week against the Browns.
Isaiah Likely hasn’t had more than three targets in any game since that his big Week 1 performance against the Chiefs. He’s just not getting enough targets to be a comfortable start. I have him slotted at TE17 this week and have little interest in using him even in a potential shootout against the Commanders.
