Ted Chmyz | Wed, Oct 23rd 2024, 6:59am EDT

Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 8)

The NFL season is flying by. We are already at Week 8, that weird “eye of the storm” week in which the NFL has scheduled zero byes in both of the last two years. On the bright side, that means more matchups for us to target (and avoid). Let’s break down the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 8 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed Tool.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 8)

Week 8 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jordan Love (QB — GB) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Having played five games so far this season, Love is currently the QB4 in points per game. With that said, I do expect some regression to come his way: The Packers currently lead the league with an absurd 82.3% of their touchdowns having come through the air — that’s not going to last. However, this is not the week to expect Love to come back to Earth. The Jaguars have been an obscenely soft matchup for opposing quarterbacks, giving up 23.7 points per game. Love is a must-start in this matchup.

Bad Matchup: Kyler Murray (QB — ARI) @ Miami Dolphins

Kyler has been a little disappointing as a fantasy quarterback so far this season, hovering around the edge of the QB1 range. He’s hit on a few huge plays with his legs but ranks 28th in the league in passing yards per game. Things aren’t likely to get any easier for Kyler this week as he faces off with the Dolphins, the only team holding opposing quarterbacks to a single-digit fantasy-point average of 9.0. To be fair, that number is partially so low because the Dolphins’ offense has been so awful without Tua Tagovailoa that no one has had to throw against them. Tua may be back this week, which would be a boost to Murray’s outlook. Even still, though, there are probably better options available in a week with no teams on bye than Kyler in a still-bad matchup.

Week 8 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Javonte Williams (RB — DEN) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are allowing 30.2 points per game to opposing running backs; no other team is giving up even 27 points per game. This week, the beneficiary of this perfect matchup will be Williams, fresh off his best game of the season against the Saints. Williams was likely on benches for his Week 7 explosion, but he should be in lineups for Week 8.

Bad Matchup: Tony Pollard (RB — TEN) @ Detroit Lions

This is a tough one. With Tyjae Spears sidelined, Pollard saw elite usage in Week 7, playing 88% of snaps and handling 84% of the Titans’ RB rushes. He also added six targets on a healthy 59% route participation rate. The issue is, all that usage corresponded to just 7.5 half-PPR points, as the Titans failed to get anything going against the Bills. Pollard’s sledding won’t get any easier against the Lions, who rank as the third-toughest fantasy matchups for running backs in the league. They’re not necessarily elite on a per-carry basis, but no team has faced fewer carries per game than the Lions, who often build big leads early. That spells trouble for a volume-based back like Pollard. A substantial receiving role means he’s not a must-bench, but I will be sitting Pollard in at least one league this week where I have another option.

Week 8 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Cooper Kupp (WR — LAR) vs. Minnesota Vikings

I don’t know if this needs saying, but Cooper Kupp is a must-start this week. He was a full participant in the Rams’ practice on Monday, an excellent sign for his availability in their Thursday night matchup. And that matchup is a good one, as the Vikings have allowed the most points per game to opposing receivers of any team in the league. Minnesota is also particularly weak against players who line up in the slot, giving up the third-most points per game to slot receivers … perfect for Kupp, who ran 68% of his routes from the slot before getting injured. Did I mention that he also had a 39% target per route run rate? Kupp is a must-start when healthy, this matchup just makes that even more clear.

Bad Matchup: Diontae Johnson (WR — CAR) @ Denver Broncos

I love Diontae Johnson, and I always have. Unfortunately, this week doesn’t look good for him. Coming off Andy Dalton‘s worst week as the Panthers’ starter, Carolina heads to Denver to face the Broncos’ defense, which allows the second-fewest points per game to opposing receivers. Even with Patrick Surtain III, arguably the league’s best corner, sidelined over the last two weeks, they didn’t allow a single WR to eclipse 57 yards. To be fair, Johnson is the best receiver the Broncos will have faced without Surtain, as they played the Chargers and the Saints without Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Diontae’s 26% target share, since Andy Dalton took over, means he’s not a must-bench (especially if Surtain is still out), but don’t be shocked if he drops another dud in Week 8.

Week 8 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Dallas Goedert/Grant Calcaterra (TE — PHI) @ Cincinnati Bengals

I wanted to feature Brock Bowers against the Chiefs in the smash spot to end all smash spots, but I figure anyone lucky enough to roster Bowers is already starting him. With that in mind, let’s look to a classic member of the Tight End Wasteland in Dallas Goedert (or backup Grant Calcaterra if Goedert is still out with his hamstring issue). The Bengals are the third-most generous defense to opposing tight ends, giving up 12.0 points per game. Although he is less involved with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith both healthy, Goedert has maintained a solid route participation rate in this Eagles offense. Calcaterra stepped right in in his absence with at least a 70% participation rate in each of the last two weeks. Given that the Eagles will likely be dropping back early and often in a game with a 47.5-point total, that many routes against a weak TE defense should lead to some production for the Eagles’ TE1, whoever it is.

Bad Matchup: Sam LaPorta (TE — DET) vs. Tennessee Titans

LaPorta has been straight-up terrible to start the season, averaging under six fantasy points per game on just an 8.4% target share. However, he should get a boost over the next two weeks: Jameson Williams, whose breakout has likely contributed to LaPorta’s declining target share, will miss those two games with a PED suspension. Unfortunately for LaPorta managers, it’s hard to trust him in the first of those two opportunities, as the Titans are the second-worst matchup for fantasy tight ends, giving up just 4.5 points per game — that’s even less than LaPorta’s miserable average! A role on an elite offense (especially with Jamo out) means LaPorta isn’t a must-bench … but just about any other player with a target share below 10% in this matchup wouldn’t even crack my top 20 tight ends.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.

NFL

MLB

NBA

NHL