The NFL regular season is already one-third over. While I’m depressed by the idea the fantasy season will be over before we know it, at least we have six weeks’ worth of data to analyze. Last week we had some solid results, so let’s take another look at the best and worst fantasy start sit matchups for Week 7 using the FantasyPros’ Fantasy Points Allowed tool.
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Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 7)
Week 7 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Drake Maye (QB – NE) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game)
It’s hard to overstate how soft a matchup the Jaguars have been for opposing quarterbacks. They’ve given up 24.1 points per game to the position, while no other team has given up more than 20.7. This sets up perfectly for Drake Maye, who had a solid fantasy outing of 19.5 points in his NFL debut against the Texans. While he made some rookie mistakes, Maye also threw for three touchdowns last week. He has also scrambled on 13% of his NFL dropbacks, over 2% clear of any starting quarterback not named Jayden Daniels. That gives a solid boost to his fantasy value, making me even more confident in recommending the rookie as a QB1 in this cake matchup.
Bad Matchup: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND) vs. Miami Dolphins
We’ve seen some high highs from Anthony Richardson so far this season, but we’ve also seen some low lows. Importantly for this matchup, we’ve also seen the Colts are happy to keep the ball out of his hands when given the opportunity. They should be able to do so this week, as they are favorites against a Dolphins team that seems utterly hopeless without Tua Tagovailoa. The one thing the Dolphins have been able to do is defend the pass, as they have allowed just 9.1 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Combine Richardson’s inconsistency with this tough matchup and he is best left on fantasy benches for Week 7.
Week 7 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: Brian Robinson Jr./Austin Ekeler (RB – WAS) vs. Carolina Panthers
It’s unclear at this point if Brian Robinson will be back in time for this dream matchup. He did not practice at all in the lead-up to Week 6, but recent reports have been optimistic about his potential availability for Week 7. Regardless of who it is, the Commanders’ lead running back will be an absolute must-start against a Panthers defense allowing a whopping 31.9 points per game to opposing running backs.
Robinson Jr. is pretty clearly a must-start, so let’s focus on Austin Ekeler. Although his performance in Week 6 with Robinson out was disappointing, he still saw a 73% snap share and nine of the team’s 11 running back carries, plus five targets. If he sees anywhere near that level of usage against Carolina’s defense, he will explode. Honestly, Ekeler may be worth playing even if Robinson is active, as both backs can eat in a matchup this good.
Bad Matchup: Jordan Mason (RB – SF) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
This situation is also a bit unclear due to injury, but I am assuming Jordan Mason will be good to go in Week 7 after suffering a shoulder injury last Thursday. However, even if he is, he’s not going to be his usual must-start self against this Chiefs defense. The Chiefs have given up the fewest points to opposing backs (12.6 per game). They have both an elite offense and a good run defense, meaning opposing teams don’t run often and are inefficient when they do. San Francisco’s run game isn’t any normal run game, so Mason isn’t a must-bench, but he will be much riskier in this matchup (and coming off an injury) than he is most weeks.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: DeMario Douglas (WR – NE) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London Game)
Given how bad they are against quarterbacks, it’s not surprising the Jaguars are also a very light matchup for wide receivers. They give up the second-most points to the position at a clip of 36.2 per game. Notably for DeMario Douglas (who runs 79% of his routes from the slot), the Jaguars are also particularly weak against slot receivers, giving up the most points per game to players aligned in the slot. Coming off a nine-target, 18.2-point outing in Maye’s debut, Douglas is well set up to have another productive day in Week 7.
Bad Matchup: Amari Cooper (WR – BUF) vs. Tennesse Titans
It feels very weird labeling Amari Cooper as a Bill, but that is the world we live in after he was shockingly traded on Tuesday. Unfortunately for Cooper, he is not in a good position to make a big impact in his first game for the Bills. The Titans are the second-toughest fantasy matchup for wide receivers, as well as the only team allowing fewer than 100 yards per game to the position. There’s also a real chance the Bills will ease the veteran receiver in with limited snaps as he learns an entirely new playbook. Combining those two factors, I recommend sitting Cooper for his Bills debut.
Week 7 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups
Good Matchup: George Kittle (TE – SF) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
George Kittle is already a must-start tight end, but this matchup is so good it’s worth emphasizing. The Chiefs’ defense allows 14.3 points per game to opposing tight ends. The Rams are second at 12.8, while no other team is even at 11.0. Kansas City’s defense also ranks first by a wide margin in both receptions (7.4) and yards (81.8) allowed per game to opposing tight ends. Fire up Kittle with confidence in this Super Bowl rematch.
Bad Matchup: Dalton Kincaid (TE — BUF) vs. Tennessee Titans
As tough as they are against receivers, the Titans may be an even worse opponent for tight ends. They have allowed opposing tight ends to average fewer than 4.0 fantasy points per game, giving up 14 receptions, 120 yards and zero touchdowns total through five games. To be fair, Tennesse hasn’t exactly faced a murderers’ row of tight ends (Tucker Kraft and Cole Kmet headline an uninspiring list), but these numbers are still absurd. Dalton Kincaid has just one week inside the top 12 at his position so far this season; I don’t think he provides another in Week 7.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.