Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 6)

Can you believe we are already at Week 6? I certainly can’t. It’s sad to think the fantasy season is nearly a third over. However, the one good thing about being five weeks in already is that we have five weeks’ worth of data to access. At this point, defensive metrics are much more reliable, as they can be less skewed by one or two bad matchups. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the best and worst fantasy matchups for Week 6 using the FantasyPros Fantasy Points Allowed tool.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 6)

Week 6 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Caleb Williams had the best game of his young career in Week 5, carving up the Panthers for over 300 yards and two touchdowns on only 29 attempts. Now, the first overall pick gets another matchup with a blue-cat team that has a terrible defense in Jacksonville. No team has allowed more points to opposing quarterbacks than the Jaguars, who have given up over 300 passing yards per game and are yet to force a single interception. As he seemingly grows more confident with each week, now is a great time to start putting Williams in your fantasy lineups.

Bad Matchup: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) @ Chicago Bears

Let’s flip this matchup right around by highlighting Trevor Lawrence in a tough matchup against the Bears’ defense. The Bears have been the second-worst matchup for fantasy quarterbacks behind just the Jets, allowing fewer than 9.0 fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers. Lawrence, meanwhile, has struggled to get much going, posting just one game above 15 fantasy points. Even with multiple teams on bye this week, there are likely better fantasy start sit options for your lineups than Lawrence on the road in Chicago.

Week 6 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) vs. Buffalo Bills

Things have been rough for Breece Hall over the last two weeks, especially on the ground. He has managed just 1.4 yards per carry en route to two straight finishes below 5.5 half-PPR points. However, if there was ever a week for Hall to bounce back, this is it. The Bills have been, bar none, the lightest matchup for opposing running backs, allowing over 30 fantasy points per game. Buffalo’s defense has been particularly weak to running backs in the passing game, allowing 62.4 receiving yards per game to opposing RBs, over five yards clear of the next team. That works great for Hall, who ranks second in the NFL with 27 targets through five weeks. Even with Braelon Allen emerging and the Jets in the chaos following the firing of Robert Saleh, Hall is an absolute must-start in this matchup.

Bad Matchup: Alexander Mattison (RB – LV) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The two toughest teams for fantasy running backs, the Chiefs and Vikings, are on bye this week, so we turn to team No. 3: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers have allowed just 15.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs through five weeks. That’s even more impressive when you consider their offense has been less-than-elite, which usually correlates with opposing running backs seeing more work. If we look at things on a per-carry basis, Pittsburgh’s defense has been arguably the toughest matchup for running backs, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry and second-fewest touchdowns per carry. Alexander Mattison should see elite usage with Zamir White likely sidelined due to a groin injury, but that may not be enough for him to provide fantasy value in this matchup.

Week 6 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Unsurprisingly, allowing a lot of points to opposing quarterbacks correlates with allowing a lot of points to opposing receivers. The Jaguars are also the best matchup for receivers, allowing the most fantasy points and over 200 yards per game to the position. Further helping Rome Odunze’s cause is that the Bears made a tactical change in Week 5 to operate primarily out of 11 personnel, meaning he, D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen all posted identical 88.6% route participation rates. As a result, Odunze saw a 20.7% target share and a 31.6% first-read target share. Combine that with his 14.8 average depth of target (aDOT) for the season and this juicy matchup, Odunze is a great play for Week 6. (For what it’s worth, Moore is a must-start and Allen is also a good option in this matchup).

Bad Matchup: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND) & Josh Downs (WR — IND) @ Tennessee Titans

Both of these Colts receivers have had back-to-back good weeks, but they are likely to struggle in Week 6. The Titans have allowed the fewest points to opposing receivers, giving up fewer than 100 yards per game and zero touchdowns so far to the position. Of course, this is partially because teams simply haven’t had to throw often against the Titans, who are lucky to be 1-3. That shouldn’t be quite as pronounced this week, as the Colts are favored by just one point on the road. However, this week should also see the return of Anthony Richardson under center for Indianapolis. As exciting and talented as Richardson is, it’s not a coincidence Josh Downs and Michael Pittman both had their two best games of the season with Joe Flacco. Richardson leads the league with a 23.3% bad throw rate, per Pro-Football-Reference, and is particularly inaccurate in the short-to-medium area where these two receivers thrive. Combine that with the tough matchup, and Downs and Pittman are both risky starts in Week 6.

Week 6 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens rank fifth in points allowed to the tight end position, but that undersells how weak they have been against opposing tight ends. Baltimore’s defense ranks second in both yards and receptions given up; they just haven’t allowed any touchdowns to tight ends. Zach Ertz, meanwhile, has maintained a consistent role in the Commanders’ offense, with at least three targets each week. Facing a weak tight end defense in what should be a shootout makes him a great streaming option.

Bad Matchup: Hunter Henry (TE – NE) vs. Houston Texans

Despite only having had one game above 4.2 half-PPR points, Hunter Henry still ranks in the top 20 tight ends in fantasy scoring. He also ranks 11th at the position in target share. With Drake Maye being announced as the Patriots’ starter going forward, he may be able to provide backend TE1 value. However, this is not the week to start Henry. The Texans have allowed fewer than 20 yards per game to opposing tight ends, the second-fewest in the league. Don’t fall for the “rookie quarterbacks use tight ends as a safety blanket” narrative this week; leave Henry on your bench when making fantasy start sit decisions.