One of the reasons why fantasy managers love to draft and play kickers on good offenses is they benefit from the added floor of extra points that kickers on low-soring offenses do not get. Last season, Jason Sanders of the Dolphins and Matt Gay of the Colts each finished the season with 122 fantasy points, yet how they each earned those points was drastically different. Gay had 13 more field goal attempts, while Sanders benefitted from the high-flying Dolphin offense and earned 23 more extra points.
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Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice
The downside of relying on a kicker on a good offense, is they often are run by a talented quarterback who does not struggle in the red zone. This is why Mason Crosby of the Packers often disappointed fantasy managers when Aaron Rodgers was in his prime.
Another reason why kickers on good teams can backfire is they often only kick extra points. That was the case for most heavily-rostered kickers in Week 7, as Harrison Butker, Jake Elliott, and Evan McPherson all posted fewer than five fantasy points in their respective matchups. In the case of Younghoe Koo, his three fantasy points could have been larger, but he pulled a 56-yard try against the Seahawks.
All of these kickers will likely bounce back in Week 8 and should not be dropped. It is just a reminder that kicking is a challenge to predict, and negative game scripts can occur even when an offense is doing well.
Week 7 Strong Performances From Widely Available Kickers
Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. Arizona: 57% roster percentage on Yahoo
The top kicker of the week, and one of the two waiver recommendations on last week’s article, was Cameron Dicker of the Chargers. Dicker hit five of five attempts against the Cardinals, including a pair of 50-plus yard kicks. He is my No.10 kicker this week and should be a top-waiver add.
Wil Lutz (DEN) @ New Orleans:: 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
The former Saint went back to the Superdome to drop 18 fantasy points in a 33-10 beatdown of the injury-riddled Saints. Lutz has been feast or famine this year, but when he feasts, he feasts to the tune of 18, 13, and 16 in his last three big games.
Week 7 Dud Performances From Heavily-Owned Kickers
Younghoe Koo (ATL) vs. Seattle: 95% roster percentage on Yahoo
This one hurt a bunch of fantasy managers, as Koo was projected to be a top-5 play at home against Seattle. Unfortunately, Kirk Cousins was terrible, and the game script quickly turned on the Falcons. Better days are ahead, including this week against the Bucs.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Over/Under | Spread | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Justin Tucker | BAL | at CLE | 46.5 | -10 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 39 | 55F, Light Wind |
| 2 | 7 | Harrison Butker | KC | at LV | 42.5 | -10 | 21 | 7 | 10 | 28 | Dome |
| 3 | 12 | Jake Bates | DET | vs. TEN | 46.5 | -11.5 | 10 | 20 | 2 | 20.5 | Dome |
| 4 | 4 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | at TB | 48.5 | 2.5 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 31.5 | 80F, Light Wind |
| 5 | 5 | Austin Seibert | WAS | vs. CHI | 47 | -1.5 | 5 | 18 | 4 | 25.5 | 59F, Light Wind |
| 6 | 6 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at SF | 48.5 | 5.5 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 41.5 | 65F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 7 | 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. IND | 47.5 | -6 | 25 | 28 | 11 | 58 | Dome |
| 8 | 3 | Will Reichard | MIN | at LAR | 46.5 | -3 | 17 | 26 | 13 | 53 | Dome |
| 9 | 8 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. ATL | 48.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 23 | 5 | 37.5 | 80F, Light Wind |
| 10 | 10 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. NO | 39 | -6 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 24 | Dome |
| 11 | 13 | Chris Boswell | PIT | vs. NYG | 37.5 | -3.5 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 42.5 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 12 | 9 | Evan McPherson | CIN | vs. PHI | 48.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 37.5 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 13 | 11 | Wil Lutz | DEN | vs. CAR | 42.5 | -7.5 | 28 | 11 | 27 | 58.5 | 75F, Slight Chance of Rain |
| 14 | 14 | Jason Myers | SEA | vs. BUF | 38 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 8 | 39 | 53F, Rain |
| 15 | 15 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at CIN | 46.5 | 2.5 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 49.5 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 16 | 21 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. ARI | 47.5 | -3 | 11 | 0 | 22 | 30 | 81F, Chance of Rain |
| 17 | 25 | Anders Carlson | SF | vs. DAL | 48.5 | -5.5 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 33.5 | 65F, 14 MPH Wind |
| 18 | 32 | Greg Joseph | NYG | at PIT | 37.5 | 3.5 | 4 | 3 | 28 | 38.5 | 58F, Light Wind |
| 19 | 16 | Brandon McManus | GB | at JAC | 48.5 | -4.5 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 47.5 | 78F, Chance of Rain |
| 20 | 20 | Joshua Karty | LAR | vs. MIN | 46.5 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 20 | 49 | Dome |
| 21 | 28 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | at NE | 40 | -7 | 23 | 15 | 23 | 54 | 49F, Light Wind |
| 22 | 17 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at SEA | 48 | -3 | 15 | 25 | 18 | 55 | 53F, Rain |
| 23 | 23 | Cam Little | JAC | vs. GB | 48.5 | 4.5 | 20 | 14 | 17 | 55.5 | 78F, Chance of Rain |
| 24 | 33 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | at DEN | 42.5 | 7.5 | 1 | 18 | 29 | 55.5 | 75F, Slight Chance of Rain |
| 25 | 29 | Joey Slye | NE | vs. NYJ | 40 | 7 | 16 | 4 | 30 | 57 | 49F, Light Wind |
| 26 | 22 | Chad Ryland | ARI | at MIA | 47.5 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 15 | 58 | 81F, Chance of Rain |
| 27 | 24 | Blake Grupe | NO | at LAC | 39 | 6 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 61 | Dome |
| 28 | 19 | Matt Gay | IND | at HOU | 47.5 | 6 | 30 | 14 | 16 | 66 | Dome |
| 29 | 26 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. KC | 42.5 | 10 | 9 | 21 | 26 | 66 | Dome |
| 30 | 31 | Nick Folk | TEN | at DET | 46.5 | 11.5 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 68.5 | Dome |
| 31 | 18 | Cairo Santos | CHI | at WAS | 47 | 1.5 | 29 | 29 | 24 | 83.5 | 59F, Light Wind |
| 32 | 27 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | vs. BAL | 42.5 | 10 | 26 | 30 | 32 | 98 | 55F, Light Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 1st in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 31. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favour for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 7.
Jake Bates (DET) vs. Tennessee: 25% roster percentage on Yahoo
Staying in the fire with Bates, as I anticipate a lopsided game script this week similar to what he had two weeks ago against the Dallas Cowboys. Fantasy writers have him as the 12th best kicker, but his K Score of 20.5 indicates a top-5 performance.
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Giants: 54% roster percentage on Yahoo
His worst game of the year was six fantasy points, and he is coming off 31 combined points in his last two games. The offense looks like it is clicking, and the Giants offense is going to turn the ball over multiple times, leading to short fields.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Jake Bates (DET) @ MIN: 25% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 6
Week 6 Finish: T12
Bates continues to be a viable fantasy option, with eight points against the Minnesota Vikings. He made all four extra points, and his lone field goal try to finish with a respectable eight fantasy points. I have him as a top-5 play this week against the Titans, a team that has given up the fourth-most points to opposing kickers.
Joshua Karty (LAR) vs. LV: 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 23
My Rank: 12
Week 7 Finish: 32
Just a brutal day for the rookie kicker and for fantasy managers who started him in what looked to be a positive game script. He missed a short field goal and an extra point en route to finishing with negative one fantasy points. He is officially out of the circle of trust.
Waiver Wired
Cameron Dicker (LAC) vs. New Orleans: 57% roster percentage on Yahoo
Jake Bates (DET) vs. TEN: 25% roster percentage on Yahoo
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Giants: 54% roster percentage on Yahoo
