Every Monday of the NFL regular season we look at breakout performances from the weekend and analyze their potential for sustained success. We will rank these performances from 1-5 based on whether we believe they are momentary or long-term options for your fantasy teams.
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Fantasy Football Heat Index
Quarterback
Stats: 28-of-37, 284 passing yards, 3 TD, 5 rush att, 4 yards, 1 rush TD
Position Rank (pre-MNF): QB2 (29.76 points)
Analysis: Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been the very definition of boom/bust during his rookie campaign. Nix has finished as the QB13 or higher in four of his eight career starts, scoring 23.49 points per game in those four contests. Unfortunately, he’s averaged 11.03 fantasy points in the other four games and finished outside the Top 24 quarterbacks on two separate occasions.
Recently, Nix has been the best version of himself, finishing as the QB9 or better in three of the past four weeks. However, with road matchups at Baltimore and Kansas City over the next two weeks, maybe pivot to more consistent options. Nix is due a stinker.
Heat Index: 2
Running Back
Stats: 10 rush att, 97 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 50 receiving yards, 1 rec TD
Position Rank (pre-MNF): RB3 (23.7 points)
Analysis: With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa back under center, Dolphins running back De’Von Achane should be considered a high-end RB1 moving forward. That’s how much Tagovailoa matters to this Miami offense.
Want proof? Just look at the numbers. In Tagovailoa’s three starts this season, Achane has scored 23.06 points per game and finished as the RB7, RB3, and RB3 in Half-PPR scoring. He averaged 5.85 fantasy points and finished no higher than RB26 while Tagovailoa was sidelined.
With Achane’s value directly tied to Tagovailoa’s health, the Dolphins RB1 is a riskier asset than most running backs in his range. A risk-averse fantasy manager might look to flip Achane for another elite fantasy asset, however, you risk losing a potential league-winning running back.
Heat Index: 4
Wide Receiver
Stats: 7 receptions, 99 receiving yards, 2 TD
Position Rank (pre-MNF): WR3 (25.4 points)
Analysis: Browns wide receiver Cedric Tillman was a popular Waiver Wire pick-up last week. After another breakout performance on Sunday, the debate is no longer over whether Tillman should be rostered. The discussion is now centered on whether or not he’s in our starting lineup next week.
One week after setting career highs in receptions (8), receiving yards (81), and fantasy points (14.1), Tillman was even better in Cleveland’s 29-24 upset of Baltimore. Tillman finished with 99 receiving yards and two touchdowns on his seven receptions. He scored 25.4 fantasy points and is the current WR3 on the week.
Looking ahead, Tillman will be given every opportunity to sustain this hot streak. He is now a full-time player after taking over the Amari Cooper role in this offense and he’s producing with his increased usage. Jameis Winston‘s gun-slinging style is a massive upgrade over Deshaun Watson at quarterback, making Tillman a solid Flex option next week.
Heat Index: 3
Tight End
Stats: 9 receptions, 81 receiving yards, 2 TD
Position Rank (pre-MNF): TE1 (24.6 points)
Analysis: The weeklong debate over which Tampa Bay wide receiver would step in for injured Mike Evans and Chris Godwin might have been a massive waste of time. Instead of featuring backup wide receivers Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, and Trey Palmer, the offense simply funneled more targets to tight end Cade Otton.
That resulted in the most productive outing of Otton’s young career. The tight end racked up 81 yards and two touchdowns on a career-high nine receptions. He scored a career-best 24.6 fantasy points and is the TE1 heading into Monday Night Football. Meanwhile, McMillan, Shepard, and Palmer combined for 82 receiving yards on Sunday.
While you can’t expect 20+ fantasy points every week, Otton’s new role is sustainable in the short term. Godwin is sidelined for the remainder of the season, while Evans isn’t expected back until Week 11 at the earliest. Until then, Otton could be Baker Mayfield‘s defacto WR1 and will be ranked accordingly over the next month.
Heat Index: 4
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