Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 6 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.

Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.

And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.

Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.

Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!

So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 7 to prepare our rosters for future success.

Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 7 slate.

• More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Week 7 Fantasy Football Forecast

Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below!

Trade Advice

My thoughts on this week’s trade market.

• I am going to keep this week’s trade advice column brief (or my version of “brief”) to hit on one point. Focus on your return, less on what you are giving away. I am often asked who I should trade away, but you should be starting with, “Who should I trade for?” Your “goal” is said to be a trade target. Your objective is the steps to achieve the goal. In this case, the players you need to trade away.
• To make a real-life comparison, let’s look at weight loss. Your goal is to lose weight. Your objective is to go to the gym three times a week to achieve the goal. The same applies to fantasy football. Determine what your team needs and what players can help you achieve them first and foremost. (FantasyPros’ MyPlaybook makes this easy.) Then, take the requisite steps to reach your goal by devising a trade request.
• Last point. It would be best to fight against negativity bias and loss aversion the best you can. Just the simple fact that a trade might not go in your favor is the result of these psychological traits and why you might be afraid to strike a deal. The “what if I am wrong” ideology. And if it does blow up in your face, you’ll feel it greater than if it works.
• That said, you need to think about it with the mindset of “What if I am right?” And if a right call on a certain player or players has a high, if not league-winning, upside, there shouldn’t be any remorse for what you traded away.
• As much as you’d like to trade all your bad players for good players, that’s just not how trading works in fantasy football. The idea of “who wins this trade” strikes as an exact example of how you shouldn’t be conducting trades because the “winner” of a trade could change week-by-week.

Seattle Seahawks

Buy Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, & Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The Seattle Seahawks had an up-and-down day offensively in this matchup. Quarterback Geno Smith completed 30 of his 52 passes for 312 yards, throwing one touchdown but tossing two interceptions. Despite the impressive yardage, Smith’s accuracy (57.7% completion rate) and a passer rating of 65.5 made for a challenging outing.

On the ground, Kenneth Walker III struggled to find space, totaling just 32 rushing yards on 14 carries (2.3 yards per carry), although he did manage to score a rushing touchdown. Walker III had four red zone rushing attempts, gaining 10 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown.

Zach Charbonnet was slightly more efficient, rushing for 20 yards on five carries. Smith contributed one carry for no gain.

Snaps: Kenneth Walker III: 69%, Zach Charbonnet: 31%.

Through the air, Tyler Lockett led the Seahawks’ receiving corps, catching four of 8 targets for 65 yards, including a long catch of 37 yards and one TD. Lockett saw three red zone targets, catching one and scoring one touchdown. Lockett had 88 air yards, a 21.5% air yard share.

Tight end Noah Fant also had a productive game, hauling in all six of his targets for 63 yards, accounting for 12% of the Target share.

Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba was involved with nine targets, catching five passes for 53 yards, while DK Metcalf led in targets with 11 (23% Target share) but only managed 48 yards on three receptions, one of them being a 30-yard gain. Metcalf was targeted three times in the red zone but caught just one and did not score a touchdown. Metcalf had 166 air yards, 41% air yard share-the quintessential buy-low candidate based on his opportunity alone.

Smith-Njigba was targeted twice in the red zone but couldn’t secure a catch or touchdown-86 air yards.

Walker III added eight catches on eight targets for 37 yards to supplement his rushing touchdown.

Jake Bobo contributed with two receptions for 18 yards on four targets, while Charbonnet caught one target for 15 yards. Tight end A.J. Barner also added one reception for 13 yards on his lone target.

Seattle will face Atlanta, Buffalo, and Los Angeles (Rams) before their bye week. The schedule is great for the offense and its fantasy weapons. Invest in the Seahawks’ passing game, which has a +5% pass rate over expectation over the last three weeks.
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San Francisco 49ers

Add Isaac Guerendo & Patrick Taylor Jr. | Hold Jordan Mason, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle | Buy Brandon Aiyuk | Hold/Sell Deebo Samuel

The San Francisco 49ers delivered a strong offensive performance, with quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way. Purdy completed 18 of 28 passes for 255 yards and threw three touchdowns without an interception, finishing with a passer rating of 129.3. He also added 19 yards on the ground from four carries, highlighting his ability to contribute in multiple facets of the game. Per Next Gen Stats, all of Purdy’s production came against zone coverage, as he failed to complete any of his six attempts against man coverage.

Rookie Running back Isaac Guerendo dominated the ground game with 99 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, including a long 76-yard run. Jordan Mason chipped in with 73 yards on nine carries, showcasing his efficiency with an 8.1 yards-per-carry average. He left the game with an AC joint injury. He took the ball at the start of the second half but couldn’t continue.

As a result, Guerendo needs to be rostered everywhere, and Taylor is also worth considering in deeper formats. In the second half, both guys saw pretty comparable snaps/carries. It’s worth noting that Taylor was used more in passing situations, running more routes than Guerendo. This might all be for naught if Mason suits up with extra time to recover.

Snaps: Jordan Mason: 28%, Isaac Guerendo: 26%, Patrick Taylor: 25%.

In the passing game, Deebo Samuel Sr. led the 49ers’ receiving corps, hauling in three of his five targets (22% Target share) for 102 yards, including a massive 76-yard touchdown reception, showcasing his game-breaking ability. Samuel was targeted twice in the red zone but didn’t record a catch or a touchdown. What do we do when a singular 49er blows up one week? Sell high.

Tight end George Kittle was also a key target, catching five of six targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns, accounting for 21% of Purdy’s targets. Kittle made the most of his two red zone targets, converting both into touchdowns. Per Next Gen Stats, Kittle hauled in every one of his five targets against zone coverage for 58 yards and two touchdowns in Week 6 against the Seahawks.

Kittle has caught 16 touchdowns against zone coverage since 2021, the most among tight ends.

Brandon Aiyuk contributed 37 yards on two receptions from four targets, while Jauan Jennings added 27 yards on three receptions (five targets). Aiyuk accumulated team-highs with 63 air yards and 33% air yard share. What do we do when a singular 49er bombs one week? Buy low.

I don’t anticipate either main 49ers WR posting consistent production throughout the 2024 season unless there’s an injury. Still, Samuel’s role is superior for fantasy scoring to Aiyuk’s role in this offense. However, this week seems more like an Aiyuk game. Samuel has been held under 45 receiving yards the last two times he has faced Kansas City. Aiyuk has averaged nearly nine targets per game in his last two matchups against the Chiefs.

Jennings ran a route on 53% of the dropbacks – his lowest mark of the season. Jennings has undeniable weekly upside in the 49ers offense, but it’s hardly a clear pathway with so many mouths to feed. If you need to make a move, he can be dropped.

Running back Patrick Taylor Jr. was involved both on the ground and through the air, rushing for 16 yards and catching one pass for 12 yards. Taylor Jr. rushed four times for 13 yards in the red zone but did not score. He had no red-zone targets.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk added six rushing yards and caught three passes for 10 yards, while Mason also contributed nine receiving yards on his lone reception.

SF will play the Chiefs off their bye week and the Cowboys before their bye week.
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Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Brian Thomas Jr. | Hold Tank Bigsby | Sell Christian Kirk & Travis Etienne Jr. | Add D’Ernest Johnson

The Jacksonville Jaguars failed to secure a victory in Week 6, led by a solid performance from quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence completed 23 of 35 passes for 234 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 91.8. He added 17 yards on the ground from four carries. Backup quarterback Mac Jones also appeared briefly, completing one pass for six yards.

The Jaguars’ rushing attack was relatively quiet. D’Ernest Johnson led the backfield with six carries for 28 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Johnson rushed twice for four yards in the red zone without scoring or receiving any red zone targets.

Tank Bigsby added seven carries for 24 yards, while Lawrence contributed 17 rushing yards. Bigsby carried the ball twice for five yards in the red zone but did not score or have any targets.

Travis Etienne had a tough day on the ground, totaling negative one yard on three attempts. Etienne was forced out of Sunday’s game against the Bears with a hamstring injury. He has been listed as week-to-week so it could be some time until he returns.

In the meantime, we will likely see a committee between Johnson and Bigsby. Johnson will work on obvious passing downs, while Bigsby will be the primary early-down rusher. He had five carries in the first half and just two in the second half, with the team getting blown out.

Bigsby is a hold with the Etienne injury. But I think he’s worth placing on the trade block if someone envisions him seeing a three-down workload (not likely). However, you likely won’t get much in return, given the bad performance. Wait till after he plays the Patriots’ run defense.

Per Next Gen Stats, Joe Mixon totaled 102 yards and a touchdown, generating a season-high +55 rush yards, which was over expected against New England in Week 6. Mixon specifically found success running outside the tackles against the Patriots, with 91 yards and a touchdown on nine such carries (compared to just 11 yards on four carries between the tackles).

Snaps: D’Ernest Johnson: 56%, Tank Bigsby: 27%, Travis Etienne: 18%.

In the passing game, tight end Evan Engram was Lawrence’s go-to target, hauling in all 10 targets for 102 yards, giving him a 29% Target share. Engram ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks in his return from injury.

Gabe Davis was productive with five catches on eight targets (23% Target share) for 45 yards with two TDs, while Christian Kirk made three catches for 39 yards on six targets. Davis had 92 air yards, 31% air yard share.

Kirk had two red zone targets but caught just one without a touchdown. Davis was targeted four times in the red zone, hauling in two catches for two touchdowns.

Brian Thomas Jr. also had a meh outing, catching three of his six targets for 27 yards. Thomas Jr. saw two red zone targets but came up empty on catches and touchdowns. He led the team in routes run on 77% of the dropbacks. It is not often you can buy low on a rookie as talented as Thomas. I’d take advantage. I think Engram’s return is going to overshadow Thomas’s outlook for the rest of the season when Gabe Davis was the one that ate into Thomas’ Week 6 production. I don’t love another tough matchup in Week 7 against cornerback Christian Gonzalez, but I’ll take the risk to get Thomas on my roster.

Among the backs, D’Ernest Johnson caught his two targets for sixteen yards, while tight end Brenton Strange had one catch for 11 yards on two targets. Etienne was targeted once in the passing game but failed to record a reception.

The Jags’ schedule is improving, which will help get this offense on track. Versus. NE, vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, and @ DET before a Week 12 bye week. Note that their next game will also be played in London.
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Chicago Bears

Hold/Buy Rome Odunze | Price Check D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Roschon Johnson | Sell Keenan Allen

The Chicago Bears dominated their Week 6 matchup, led by a standout performance from quarterback Caleb Williams. Williams completed 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards and threw four touchdowns with one interception, posting a quarterback rating of 124.4. Williams did all his damage underneath, with none of his top-four pass weapons surpassing 40 air yards.

On the ground, Williams also added 56 rushing yards on just four attempts, including a long run of 23 yards.

The rushing attack was spearheaded by running back D’Andre Swift, who carried the ball 17 times for 91 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Swift rushed twice for five yards and scored one rushing touchdown with no red zone targets.

Roschon Johnson struggled to gain traction, rushing for just 8 yards on five carries.

Snaps: D’Andre Swift: 68%, Roschon Johnson: 27%, Khalil Herbert: 5%.

Tight end Cole Kmet led the receiving group, catching all five of his targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns, commanding an 18% Target share.

Wide receiver Keenan Allen contributed 41 yards on five catches (five targets), averaging 8.2 yards per reception with two touchdowns, while Rome Odunze added 40 yards on two receptions from two targets, including a 20-yard long reception. Allen had two red zone targets, catching both and scoring two touchdowns-pretty easy case for a sell-high to an older veteran WR off the touchdowns amid strong target competition.

Routes: D.J. Moore: 91.18%, Keenan Allen: 88.24%, Rome Odunze 70%.

D’Andre Swift was also involved in the passing game, catching all four targets for 28 yards, while Roschon Johnson had two catches for 25 yards on his three targets. Through six games, Swift ranks fifth in touches. Definitely concerned if he can keep up this heavy of a workload.

D.J. Moore had a quiet outing, catching four of his five targets for 20 yards. Moore had two red zone targets, catching both, but did not find the end zone.

The Bears will be on a Week 7 bye. After that, they will play the Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers after the bye week. It’s a solid string of matchups for the Bears offense.

In the macro, you probably want to hold onto your Bears players, given the soft matchups upcoming. They have improved dramatically offensively, with Williams hitting his stride. They are also on a bye week, so most managers won’t give you much if you are selling. Therefore, the move is to buy Rome Odunze. We see rookies often take a massive step forward in the second halves of the season, especially after the bye week.

Also, stash Khalil Herbert after he gets dropped during the bye week. He’s not playing anymore. I think he could get traded. The Raiders could sure use another RB…
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New England Patriots

Add Drake Maye | Add DeMario Douglas & Hunter Henry | Drop Ja’Lynn Polk | Price Check Rhamondre Stevenson

In their Week 6 game, the New England Patriots were led by rookie quarterback Drake Maye, who completed 20 of his 33 passes for 243 yards and threw three touchdowns, though he also had two interceptions. Despite a completion percentage of 60.6%, Maye maintained a solid passer rating of 88.3, averaging 7.4 yards per attempt.

On the ground, Maye also led the team in rushing, accumulating 38 yards on five carries, though he didn’t find the end zone. The team’s running backs struggled to make an impact, with Antonio Gibson leading the backfield with 13 carries for just 19 yards, while Terrell Jennings added five carries for 13 yards. Both were unable to reach the end zone. Gibson had one red zone rushing attempt for four yards and was targeted once without scoring.

Snaps: Antonio Gibson: 48%, JaMycal Hasty: 32%, Terrell Jennings: 21%.

As great as Maye was in his first start, his presence did not unlock this running game. I recommended Rhamondre Stevenson as a sell last week before the injury. When he’s healthy, it’s clear that the team will lean on him based on how bad the run game was without him. But the Patriots offensive line continues to be decimated by injuries. Unless it’s for a dollar price tag, it’s probably a backfield situation to avoid.

The Patriots’ receiving corps was headlined by DeMario Douglas, who was the most productive pass catcher of the day. He caught six of his nine targets (a 27.3% Target share) for 92 yards, including a 35-yard catch, and scored one touchdown.

Kayshon Boutte made the most of his limited opportunities, catching all three of his targets for 59 yards, including a 40-yard grab, and also scoring a touchdown. Boutte ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks and led the team in routes run.

Tight end Hunter Henry contributed with three receptions on five targets (15.2% Target share) for 41 yards, with a score. Henry converted his only red zone target into a touchdown. Tight ends are a tough commodity, and Henry’s has one of the best roles for a fantasy tight end. Add him if you are struggling at tight end.

Austin Hooper had just one catch on two targets for five yards while losing a fumble. Despite being heavily involved in the passing game, Antonio Gibson (four targets) and Josh Polk (four targets) were unable to score, though Gibson contributed 24 receiving yards on three catches. Polk was limited to just one catch and was plagued with drops.

Polk was bad in this game, and I am concerned that this will impact his playing time. Kendrick Bourne‘s reps are on the uptick, and Boutte is flat-out-playing him. I thought Boutte was super intriguing as a prospect, and he might be making him ascend this wide receiver depth chart. Javon Baker continues to be a healthy scratch. Meanwhile, Boutte has caught all seven of his targets this season, generating a perfect passer rating when targeted. He has more yards (106) than Polk despite 15 fewer targets. Woof.

The Patriots will face the Jaguars in Week 7 and the Jets again in Week 8. This is a great matchup for Maye to build on his first start.
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Houston Texans

Hold Tank Dell | Buy Joe Mixon | Add Dalton Schultz | Drop Cam Akers & Dare Ogunbowale

In a Week 6 clash, the Houston Texans leaned on quarterback C.J. Stroud and running back Joe Mixon to fuel their offense. Stroud completed 20 of his 31 pass attempts for 192 yards, throwing three touchdowns and one interception. Stroud displayed decent efficiency, with a completion percentage of 64.5% and a passer rating of 100.5.

Joe Mixon dominated on the ground, rushing 13 times for 102 yards, including a long run of 59 yards and an average of 7.8 yards per carry with a touchdown. Mixon rushed six times in the red zone for 20 yards, scoring one rushing touchdown. He also caught two red zone targets, adding one receiving touchdown.

Dameon Pierce added eight carries for 76 yards, notably breaking free for a 54-yard run touchdown, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt.

Snaps: Joe Mixon: 42%, Dare Ogunbowale: 27%, Dameon Pierce: 27%, Cam Akers: 3%.

Don’t let the snap counts fool you. This was clearly Mixon in the RB1 role.

In the air, Stefon Diggs led the receiving corps with seven targets, catching six passes for 77 yards and a touchdown, claiming a 22.6% Target share. Diggs had two red zone targets and scored one touchdown with both catches.

Rookie wide receiver Tank Dell was Stroud’s go-to target, receiving a team-high nine targets (29% Target share), pulling in seven catches for 57 yards with a touchdown. Dell was targeted once in the red zone, catching it for a touchdown.

Dell had 71 air yards, 28% air yard share. Diggs had 94 air yards and 37% air yard share, taking over a larger piece of downfield looks vacated by Nico Collins. Dell led the team in routes, running a route on 89% of the dropbacks, followed by Diggs (77%).

Per Next Gen Stats, Diggs had the bulk of his production coming against Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez aligned across from Diggs on 10 of his 27 routes, allowing four receptions on five targets for 39 yards and a touchdown.

Mixon, contributing to the passing game, snagged three passes on four targets for 30 yards, including a touchdown.

Dalton Schultz caught four of his eight targets for 27 yards. Watching this game live, Schultz was terrible. It was a great opportunity to be a difference-making tight end – 67 air yards, 27% air yard share, and 26% Target share – all for naught. Schultz ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks.

The Texans take on the Packers next, followed by the Colts, Jets, and Lions.
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Indianapolis Colts

Sell Jonathan Taylor & Michael Pittman Jr. | Buy Josh Downs | Hold Trey Sermon

The Indianapolis Colts had a tougher outing in Week 6, led by quarterback Joe Flacco, who completed 22 of 38 pass attempts for 189 yards. Flacco threw two touchdowns and finished with a 57.9% completion rate and a passer rating of 77.6.

The Colts struggled to establish a dominant run game. Tyler Goodson led the team with 51 rushing yards on eight carries, averaging 6.4 yards per carry, including a long run of 33 yards. Goodson had two red zone rushing attempts for four yards and one target without a touchdown.

Trey Sermon handled the bulk of the workload, rushing 18 times, but only managed 29 yards, with his longest carry being 11 yards. Sermon had three red zone rushing attempts for negative two yards with no targets or touchdowns.

Snaps: Trey Sermon: 60%, Tyler Goodson: 39%

Flacco also added one rushing yard on a single carry.

The Colts lost center Ryan Kelly during the game which didn’t help the Colts establish an efficient ground game. Goodson posted a strong yardage game with a few explosive runs, but that’s par for the course of the boom-or-bust Titans run defense.

But I am concerned about the Colts’ OL for Taylor’s return. Put him on the block.

In the receiving game, Josh Downs was Flacco’s favorite target, seeing a 24% Target share with nine targets. Downs hauled in seven of those targets for 66 yards, with a long reception of 22 yards and a TD. Downs was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one but no touchdowns.

Downs has been a target machine since his return to the lineup, regardless of the quarterback under center. His 35% target rate per route run ranks fourth-highest in the NFL.

Tight end Mo Alie-Cox caught all four of his targets (10% Target share) for 41 yards, including a 22-yard catch. Michael Pittman Jr. was targeted five times, catching three passes for 35 yards and one TD on a jump ball from Flacco. He was not limited despite entering the game with a back injury.

But for the second straight game, he took a backseat to Downs. But MPJ also scored again. Take advantage and ship him off. With Richardson eventually back under center, only one Colts pass-catcher will likely be relevant. And I’d bet it’s Downs who is the most reliable based on his ability to command targets at an elite level.

Drew Ogletree added two receptions for 24 yards, including a 12-yard reception.

Alec Pierce did not catch any of his four targets, although he did pick up a defensive pass interference call. Pierce had 105 air yards, a 32% air yard share. He’s always going to be super boom-or-bust, and this week, he came out with his lowest range of outcomes.

Goodson contributed in the passing game as well, catching four of his five targets for 14 yards.

The Dolphins and the Texans represent solid spots for more fantasy production in Weeks 7-8. But the Colts’ fantasy “goodness” is based on which quarterback they have under center. The schedule for Weeks 9-13 before a Week 14 bye week is: @ MIN, vs. BUF, @ NYJ, vs. DET, and @ NE.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Indianapolis is tied for the No.32-ranked schedule for quarterbacks.
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Tennessee Titans

Buy/Hold Tony Pollard | Buy DeAndre Hopkins & Calvin Ridley | Add Mason Rudolph

The Tennessee Titans struggled offensively in their Week 6 matchup, led by quarterback Will Levis. Levis completed 16 of 27 passes for 95 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 63. The Titans’ passing game never truly got going, averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.

And this was not for a lack of creativity. Per Next Gen Stats, the Titans offense used motion on 48 of their 55 plays (87.3%), their highest mark of the season (by 20.6%). Entering Week 6, the Titans used motion on just 54.5% of offensive snaps (25th in the NFL) despite averaging 1.1 more yards per play with motion than without, the seventh-highest positive differential in the NFL. In Week 6 against the Colts, the Titans averaged 3.4 more yards per play with motion (4.8) than without (1.4).

In the rushing game, Tony Pollard led the backfield with 17 carries for 93 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Yes, Pollard averaged more yards per carry than Levis did through the air.

Pollard also found the end zone on the ground, capping off a productive day. Pollard had two red zone rushing attempts for 11 yards and no targets or touchdowns.

Tyjae Spears contributed with six carries for 27 yards, while Levis added 15 yards on three scrambles. Spears left the game with an injury.

Snaps: Tony Pollard: 74%, Tyjae Spears: 21%.

DeAndre Hopkins was the top target in the passing game, securing four of his six targets (22% Target share) for 54 yards, including a long catch of 23 yards with nearly 100 air yards. It is worth noting that this was accompanied by Hopkins running a route on 60% of the dropbacks, which was easily the highest of the season. Fresh off the bye week, it appears Hopkins is finally over that preseason knee injury. He owns a 27% target rate per route run this season.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo had three targets but was limited to just six yards on three catches. Tyler Boyd saw three targets, catching all of them for 19 yards, and Treylon Burks caught his only target for 10 yards.

The rest of the receiving corps struggled to make a significant impact. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine caught one of his two targets for a nine-yard TD, while Calvin Ridley was targeted eight times but managed zero receptions. Ridley had 133 air yards, a 54% air yard share, and a 30% Target share. And he scored zero fantasy points as a receiver. He went OFF after the game based on his lack of early-game usage.

“I need some in the beginning of the f***ing game too. S**t is getting crazy for me.”#Titans WR Calvin Ridley frustrated that he didn’t get involved in the game plan early enough. pic.twitter.com/n47lXKgVKy

— AtoZ Sports Nashville (@AtoZSports) October 13, 2024

I thought last week was the squeaky wheel game. This week, I’m expecting even more noise from the Ridley wheel.

After the game, Callahan doubled down on the approach to getting Ridley more involved.

Though strong on the ground, Tony Pollard had a negative impact on the passing game, losing five yards on his three catches out of the backfield.

The rest of the schedule: @ BUF, @ DET, vs NE, @ LAC, vs MIN, @ HOU, @ WAS, vs JAC, vs CIN, @ IND and @ JAC.

As weird as this might sound, the schedule for this offense is good. Considering how cheap Ridley/Hopkins are, I’d try to acquire them for next to nothing (if they aren’t dropped first). The Titans are 0-4 in games where Levis started and completed. 1-0 under Mason Rudolph…

Make sure he’s not floating out there in any 2QB leagues.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy Mike Evans | Sell Rachaad White | Hold/Sell Bucky Irving | Hold Chris Godwin | Add Sean Tucker

In Week 6, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense was led by quarterback Baker Mayfield, who completed 24 of 36 passes for 325 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a 66.7% completion rate and a 97.6 passer rating.

Running back Sean Tucker stole the show on the ground, rushing 14 times for 136 yards, averaging an impressive 9.7 yards per carry, including a long run of 36 yards with a touchdown. He also contributed in the passing game, catching three of his three targets (8.3% Target share) for 56 yards, including a receiving touchdown. Although he only had one carry in the first half.

Tucker rushed twice for 13 yards in the red zone and scored one rushing touchdown without any targets.

Bucky Irving also had a strong game in the backfield with 14 carries for 81 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and added two catches on two targets for 18 yards. Irving rushed four times in the red zone, gaining 24 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown without any red zone targets.

Snaps: Bucky Irving: 64%, Sean Tucker: 38%.

Tucker did a lot of damage in the second half, but it’s not as if he wasn’t involved at all in the offensive game plan (used as a receiver). We don’t know what this backfield will look like if Rachaad White returns, but it could be a three-headed monster down the year. Irving’s price is at its peak right now before a brutal matchup against the Ravens. Todd Bowles said post-game that Tucker has earned the right for more opportunities. In fact, Bowles used the word “three-headed monster” regarding his backfield. Gross.

The performance by RB Sean Tucker, who had 136 yards and a TD on 14 carries and another receiving touchdown, means he will join Rachaad White and Bucky Irving more in the backfield. "It's definitely worthy of him making it a three-headed monster,'' coach Todd Bowles said of…

— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) October 14, 2024

Wide receiver Sterling Shepard chipped in with four rushes for 31 yards and caught three of his four targets for 23 yards. Shepard ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks as the WR2. He has established himself as WR3 based on the injuries of Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer.

Chris Godwin was the star of the receiving corps, catching 11 of his 13 targets (36.1% Target share) for 125 yards and two touchdowns, including a long reception of 55 yards. Rookie Rakim Miller also made an impact, hauling in one catch for 39 yards on his only target.

Mike Evans was targeted six times, catching two passes for 34 yards, with a long of 17 yards, while tight end Cade Otton added two catches on six targets for 15 yards and one touchdown. Otton had two red zone targets, securing one and finding the end zone for a touchdown.

Evans left the game briefly but returned. He recorded one target in the second half. Evans had 87 air yards, 40% air yard share. Buy low. He only ran a route on 62.5% of the dropbacks, playing a season-low in snaps. The Buccaneers are going to need Evans over the next month.

Tampa will play the Ravens and Falcons in the next two games, then the Chiefs and 49ers before their bye week.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Buccaneers have a No.2-most favorable schedule for WRs.
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New Orleans Saints

Hold/Sell Alvin Kamara | Add Kendre Miller & Bub Means | Add Juwan Johnson

In the Week 6 matchup, rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler led the New Orleans Saints’ offense, who completed 22 of 40 passes for 243 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. Rattler had a 55% completion rate and a passer rating of 60.7.

Alvin Kamara carried the ball 13 times, gaining 40 yards on the ground, averaging 3.1 yards per carry with a touchdown. Rattler himself added 27 rushing yards on four attempts, including a long run of 16 yards. Kamara had two red zone rushing attempts for seven yards, scoring one rushing touchdown. He was also targeted once but did not score a receiving touchdown.

Jamaal Williams had two rushes for 7 yards.

Snaps: Alvin Kamara: 74%, Jordan Mims: 23%, Jamaal Williams: 4%

It’s pretty clear that the Saints aren’t sold on either Mims or Williams as true complements to take the workload off Kamara. The veteran running back leads the NFL in touches (132).

Kendre Miller is expected to make his season debut in Week 7. Add him. I loved his prospects before he got hurt during the preseason. He won’t eat into Kamara’s work as a receiver, but he can work as a ball carrier on early downs. If somebody will give you Weeks 1-2 Kamara, take it. The Saints’ offense hasn’t been the same with the injuries across the OL.

Through the air, tight end Foster Moreau led the receiving corps, catching both his targets for 54 yards, including a long catch of 27 yards. Juwan Johnson also had a solid showing, catching three passes on three targets (7.5% Target share) for 48 yards, including a 27-yard reception. Johnson ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Given the injury to Shaheed, Johnson will take on a large share of the targets in Week 7.

Wide receivers Bub Means and Cedrick Wilson Jr. each recorded 45 and 28 receiving yards, respectively, with Means catching five balls and one TD on eight targets (21% Target share).

Means was targeted once in the red zone and converted his only opportunity into a touchdown. It was clear that the rookie had a built-in rapport with his rookie quarterback, a trend I expect to continue in the coming weeks. Means ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks.

Kamara was involved in the passing game as well, catching five of his eight targets (20% Target share) for 24 yards, while Jordan Mims had two receptions for 13 yards, and Shaheed managed just one reception for 11 yards on his seven targets (17.5% Target share). He did score a TD on a punt return. Shaheed had 151 air yards, 49% air yard share.

Chris Olave left the game early after fumbling and sustaining a concussion. Without Olave, at least for Week 7, Shaheed has to be in all lineups if he is healthy. However, that might not be the case, given he is reportedly dealing with a concerning knee injury.

It was a wacky game between the Saints-Buccaneers. Tampa jumped out 17-0. Then they allowed 20 unanswered points with interceptions, penalties, and special teams miscues. Then it was all Buccaneers after that, with a final score of 51-27.

Note that on the final drive in garbage time, Mims had three targets, and Wilson had two.

The Saints’ defense was awful in this matchup, allowing 164 yards on missed tackles, the most by any defense in a game this season. The Broncos RBs are salivating ahead of their Week 7 Thursday night matchup versus the Saints.

New Orleans plays Denver on Thursday night, followed by the Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and Browns.
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Cleveland Browns

Drop Jerome Ford & D’Onta Foreman | Add Pierre Strong | Add/Hold Jerry Jeudy | Hold/Add David Njoku | Add Cedric Tillman

In the Week 6 matchup, the Cleveland Browns’ offense, led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, struggled to find the end zone. Watson completed 16 of 23 passes for 168 yards without throwing any touchdowns or interceptions. Watson finished with a 69.6% completion rate and a passer rating of 90.5.

On the ground, Pierre Strong Jr. was the leading rusher for the Browns, carrying the ball eight times for 43 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 14 yards. D’Onta Foreman chipped in 31 yards on 10 carries, while Watson added 17 yards on four attempts. Foreman had one red zone rushing attempt for a negative one-yard.

Jerome Ford managed 14 rushing yards on two carries before exiting with an injury, while Cedric Tillman had a single carry for a loss of 5 yards.

Snaps: Pierre Strong: 53%, D’Onta Foreman: 35%, Jerome Ford: 7%

In the receiving game, Amari Cooper was the most productive player, catching four of his six targets (26% Target share) for 42 yards, including a long reception of 14 yards. Jerry Jeudy was also involved, catching one of his three targets for 35 yards, with his longest reception going for 35 yards. Jeudy had 74 air yards, 57% air yard share.

Tight end David Njoku saw seven targets (30.4% Target share), hauling in five receptions for 31 yards, with a long catch of 27 yards. Njoku had one red zone target but did not make a catch or score. Njoku ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. Buy low.

Jerry Jeudy‘s targets have gotten nuked since Njoku returned. With Watson as the quarterback and targets coming at a premium, he can be dropped across most formats.

Well, at least that was the thesis before Cooper got dealt to the Bills. There’s a massive target and air yards share gap in this offense now with Cooper out of the way. I’d expect Jeudy/Njoku to take on the majority of targets (from Watson keep in mind) while Tillman should also see expanded work if the Elijah Moore injury is serious.

Pierre Strong Jr. was impactful in the passing game as well, catching three targets (8.7% Target share) for 35 yards, including a long catch of 44 yards.

Foreman also contributed two catches on his two targets for 16 yards. Nick Chubb is expected to return next week. Given Ford’s week-to-week injury and Chubb’s return, I think we could see Strong inherit the best “fantasy” role. I’d expect Chubb/Foreman to split early down usage with Strong used as a change-of-pace, pass-catcher out of the backfield.

The Browns also lost another offensive lineman center, Nick Harris, in the loss. Elijah Moore also suffered a rib injury.

Cleveland will play the Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers in the next three weeks before they go on bye. Like I said last week, the matchups remain great for the passing game, but Watson cannot be trusted in any capacity to help his receivers deliver.
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Philadelphia Eagles

Buy Eagles | Add Grant Calcaterra

The Philadelphia Eagles secured a victory in their Week 6 matchup with a strong performance from quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts completed 16 of his 25 pass attempts for 264 yards and threw for two touchdowns, finishing with a 64% completion rate and an impressive passer rating of 126.1.

On the ground, Saquon Barkley led the team in rushing with 18 carries for 47 yards, though he didn’t find much room to run, averaging just 2.6 yards per carry. Hurts contributed 33 rushing yards on 14 attempts, while Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 23 yards on three carries, including a long run of 19 yards. Jahan Dotson also added a 13-yard rush.

Snaps: Saquon Barkley: 79%, Kenneth Gainwell: 21%

The Browns’ run defense showed up big in this game. Per Next Gen Stats, they held Eagles rushers to -13 rushing yards over expected on the day, the lowest rushing yards over expected in a game by the Eagles this season.

If you can buy low on Barkley after his worst game of the season, I think that’s the move to make.

The Eagles will face the Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams, and Ravens. The Eagles’ schedule is very good for the rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and RBs.

Also, Barkley revenge game against his old team? Lock of the week.

In the receiving game, A.J. Brown was the standout performer, catching six of his nine targets (36% Target share) for 116 yards and one touchdown. His longest reception went for 40 yards. Brown had 152 air yards, 62% air yard share. ALPHA.

No. 2 tight end Grant Calcaterra was highly efficient, grabbing all four targets (16% Target share) for 67 yards, including a 34-yard reception. Calcaterra ran a route on 82% of the dropbacks as he took on the full Dallas Goedert role after he left with a hamstring injury.

DeVonta Smith also had a solid day, catching three of his four targets (16% Target share) for 64 yards and a touchdown, including a 45-yard catch. Smith’s production always booms when someone else in the receiving corps misses time.

Jahan Dotson, Saquon Barkley, and Kenneth Gainwell all contributed modestly in the passing game. Dotson caught one of his three targets for 10 yards, while Barkley caught two passes, gaining seven yards.

Takle Jordan Mailata suffered a hamstring injury against Cleveland on Sunday. Dallas Goedert suffered a hamstring injury.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Philadelphia is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and running backs.
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Arizona Cardinals

Hold/Sell Michael Wilson | Buy James Conner & Trey McBride

In Week 6, the Arizona Cardinals were led by quarterback Kyler Murray, who completed 22 of his 32 passes for 214 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions. Murray achieved a 68.8% completion rate and maintained a passer rating of 97.7 while averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. Although Murray also contributed on the ground with 14 rushing yards on seven carries, he did not find the end zone.

The Cardinals’ ground attack was led by Trey Benson, who gained 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt, though he did not score. Benson was also part of a fumble (credited to Murray) on a botched exchange in the fourth quarter.

Emari Demercado added 25 rushing yards on four carries, while James Conner managed 24 yards on just seven attempts. None of the Arizona running backs recorded a rushing touchdown in this game. Conner did not record a carry in the second half. Conner had one red zone rushing attempt for two yards but did not score or have any targets. He was game-scripted out of this contest. Fumbling a screen pass also likely didn’t help his playing time. If you want a low-end fantasy RB1 at a discount, Conner is your guy to target through trade this week.

Snaps: Emari Demercado: 53%, James Conner: 28%, Trey Benson: 19%

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Cardinals have a No.1-most favorable schedule for RBs.

Tight end Trey McBride was the focal point of the passing game, hauling in eight of his team-high eight targets (25% Target share) for 96 yards. He averaged 12 yards per catch, with a long reception of 27 yards, but he did not reach the end zone. McBride ran a route on 83% of the dropbacks with 66 air yards and 34% air yard share. I expect McBride to easily lead this team in targets with Harrison dealing with a concussion.

Running back Emari Demercado was also heavily involved in the passing game, catching five of seven targets for 39 yards.

Wide receiver Greg Dortch caught three of his five targets for 36 yards but did not score. James Conner added four catches for 22 yards on five targets, while Michael Wilson caught two of his four targets for 21 yards with a touchdown. Wilson was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one and scoring a touchdown. Wilson had 44 air yards, 23% air yard share, with the Cardinals not attacking downfield in any capacity.

Marvin Harrison Jr. only had two targets. Harrison was evaluated for a head injury in Sunday’s Week 6 game against Green Bay, and he was ruled out from returning because of a concussion.

Given the Harrison injury, Wilson might see a boost in the trade market. I think I might sell high on his perception as the Cardinals WR1, given that it will still be the McBride show. Also, the schedule isn’t great for WRs leading up until the bye week.

The Cardinals’ next game is against the Chargers at home, followed by the Dolphins, Bears, and Jets before their bye week. After their bye week, the schedule is salivating for the playoff run: @ SEA, @ MIN, vs. SEA, vs. NE, @ CAR, @ LAR, and vs. SF. A reminder to make sure that Benson is not available in any league formats for the upside he could deliver if there’s a Conner injury.
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Green Bay Packers

Hold Tucker Kraft | Add/Sell Christian Watson | Add Romeo Doubs | Buy Josh Jacobs | Drop Dontayvion Wicks

In Week 6, the Green Bay Packers delivered an impressive offensive showing led by quarterback Jordan Love. Love completed 22 of his 32 passes for 258 yards, throwing four touchdowns while only turning the ball over once with an interception. He achieved a completion rate of 68.8% and posted a strong passer rating of 119.5, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt.

The Packers’ rushing attack was headed by Josh Jacobs, who carried the ball 18 times for 62 yards, averaging 3.4 yards per carry, but did not score a rushing touchdown. Emanuel Wilson contributed with 54 rushing yards on seven attempts, averaging a solid 7.7 yards per carry, though he also did not find the end zone.

Snaps: Josh Jacobs: 63%, Emanuel Wilson: 32%

At this point, Jacobs’ biggest problem is that Jordan Love just throws too many TDs. He’s been above average as a rusher. Third in carries, sixth in yards from scrimmage, and 21st in rushing yards above expectation per attempt. Nobody “wants” Jacobs, but he’s got the numbers, pedigree, and lead role in a high-powered offense to be a difference-maker in fantasy football. Trade for him.

Christian Watson led the Green Bay receiving corps, catching three of his four targets for 68 yards and one touchdown. He accounted for 13% of the team’s Target share. Watson had 70 air yards, 35% air yard share. It’s a solid game, but nothing that moves the needle for Watson’s fantasy value.  Still a boom-or-bust WR with a quarterback that loves to spread the ball around. Would entertain the idea of “selling high” given he only posted a 13% Target share.

Romeo Doubs was also a key contributor, reeling in three of his four targets for 49 yards, with a 16.7% Target share and two receiving touchdowns. Doubs made the most of his two red zone targets, catching both for two touchdowns.

Tight end Ben Sims made the most of his opportunities, catching his two targets for 38 yards. Jayden Reed saw the most targets, leading the team with six (27.2% Target share), catching six balls for 28 yards with a touchdown. Reed caught both of his two red zone targets, scoring one touchdown.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers wide receivers recorded three touchdowns on just 12 targets when aligned in the slot against the Cardinals, tied for the most such touchdowns in a game this season.

Tucker Kraft caught two of four targets for 13 yards. Love missed him deep in the fourth quarter. Kraft still ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks, so he will bounce back.

Dontayvion Wicks had just three targets, catching one for nine yards. He left the game with a shoulder injury. He is considered week-to-week and can be dropped.

Doubs was the route leader as he usually is (77%) followed by Watson (66%) and Reed (60%). If Reed misses any time, Bo Melton would be next up on the depth chart. Melton ran a route on 17% of the dropbacks in Week 6. They give him a lot of looks on designed carries. He also boasts a 26% target rate per route run this season.

Jacobs was a versatile contributor, adding 28 receiving yards on three catches from three targets; Wilson added 19 receiving yards on his two targets and one catch.

The Packers play Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit before a Week 10 bye week. This offense will continue to cook.
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Washington Commanders

Buy Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler | Add Noah Brown & Zach Ertz

In Week 6, the Washington Commanders leaned on quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had an impressive performance. Daniels completed 24 of his 35 pass attempts for 269 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He posted a strong completion rate of 68.6% and earned a passer rating of 110.3, averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.

On the ground, Jayden Daniels also contributed with six carries for 22 yards, though he did not score. Austin Ekeler had a quiet day rushing with nine attempts for only 21 yards, averaging 2.3 yards per carry. Ekeler had one red zone rushing attempt for no yards and no targets or touchdowns.

Jeremy McNichols added 9 rushing yards on two carries.

Snaps: Austin Ekeler: 75%, Jeremy McNichols: 37%

Ekeler drew the start but had the worst matchup imaginable against the league’s premier run defense. Buy low on this backfield, specifically Ekeler. He leads all RBs this season in yards per touch (8.6). Week 7, hello, Panthers run defense.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Commanders have a No.1-most favorable schedule for RBs.

In the receiving game, tight end Zach Ertz led the way with four receptions on five targets (22.8% Target share), collecting 68 yards with a long reception of 24 yards but no touchdowns. He was tackled at the one-yard line. Pain. Ertz ran a route on 69% of the dropbacks.

Noah Brown was also heavily involved, catching four of his eight targets (24% Target share) for 58 yards. Brown ran a route on 59% of the dropbacks as the Commanders’ WR2. Brown had 106 air yards and 40% air yard share.

Terry McLaurin saw seven targets (20% Target share), catching six for 53 yards, including an 8.8-yard average per reception, with two TD receptions. McLaurin was perfect in the red zone, catching both of his two targets for two touchdowns.

Austin Ekeler was a significant threat out of the backfield in the passing game, securing four of five targets for 47 yards, including a long reception of 25 yards.

Olamide Zaccheaus caught four of his six targets for 27 yards, while Dyami Brown and Luke McCaffrey each caught their lone targets for minimal yardage. The Commanders continue to cycle through their WR room behind McLaurin.

The Commanders will play Carolina and Chicago in the next two games. Then, it’s @ NYG vs. PIT, @ PHI vs. DAL, and vs. TEN before their bye week.
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Baltimore Ravens

Sell Mark Andrews | Buy Isaiah Likely

In Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens offense was powered by an exceptional performance from quarterback Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 26 pass attempts for 323 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Jackson maintained an impressive 76.9% completion rate and posted a strong passer rating of 114.7, averaging 12.4 yards per attempt.

Derrick Henry carried the bulk of the rushing load with 24 attempts for 132 yards, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with two rushing touchdowns. Henry carried the ball four times in the red zone for 15 yards, scoring two rushing touchdowns with no targets in the red zone.

Snaps: Derrick Henry: 63%, Justice Hill: 38%

Jackson contributed 40 rushing yards on 11 carries, while Justice Hill had a quiet day with just two rushing yards on one carry.

Through the air, wide receiver Zay Flowers was a key contributor, catching nine of his team-high nine targets for 132 yards, including a long reception of 44 yards and a 36% Target share, though he was held out of the end zone. Rashod Bateman made an impact with four receptions on four targets (12.9% Target share) for 71 yards, averaging an impressive 17.8 yards per catch.

Tight end Mark Andrews also delivered a solid performance, catching three of his four targets (16% Target share) for 66 yards, with a long catch of 38 yards. Andrews was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one pass for a touchdown.

Isaiah Likely added 27 receiving yards on two receptions (four targets, 16% Target share), while Nelson Agholor had one catch on his three targets for 25 yards. Likely was targeted once in the red zone but did not make a catch.

The tight end routes were an even split. Likely ran a route on 53% of the dropbacks to Andrew’s 50% of the dropbacks.

Andrews’ stringing together back-to-back weeks has been excellent. And if you have not given hope yet, then you deserve a pat on the back. But he is still just a streamer until we see his usage change. He played fewer snaps than in Week 5. I’m telling you that you should trade Andrews for Likely straight up after this performance.

Baltimore will face the Buccaneers next, followed by the Browns. Then it’s the Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Eagles before a bye week.

FWIW, Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Ravens have a No.32-most favorable schedule for RBs. I can’t imagine anybody would actually be willing to sell “high” on Derrick Henry, but a tougher schedule could hurt his bottom-line production. Per PFF’s expected fantasy points model, Henry leads all RBs in points scored above expectation (+7.2 per game).
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Los Angeles Chargers

Buy J.K. Dobbins & Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston | Add Kimani Vidal | Add Josh Palmer

The Los Angeles Chargers leaned on their run game and a steady performance from Justin Herbert to claim victory. Herbert completed 21 of 34 passes for 237 yards, throwing one touchdown and no interceptions, with a completion rate of 61.8%.

J.K. Dobbins led the way on the ground, rushing 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards. He also was involved in the passing game catching both of his targets for six yards.

Dobbins rushed four times for 12 yards and scored one rushing touchdown. He had one red zone target but no receiving touchdown.

Fun stat courtesy of Next Gen Stats: J.K. Dobbins had most of his success on the ground come on runs to the left side of the formation against the Broncos, accumulating 72 of his 96 rushing yards, including three runs of 10+ yards. Dobbins ran to the left side of the formation (17 carries) more than twice as often as runs to the right (8 carries). On the season, Dobbins has gained 350 of his 439 yards on runs to the left through his first five games with the Chargers.

The run-heavy approach was complemented by contributions from Derius Davis, who had 14 yards on two carries, and Kimani Vidal, who added 11 yards on four carries. Vidal had one red zone rushing attempt, losing one yard without any targets.

Herbert contributed with four rushes of his own, though he only managed two yards. Hassan Haskins chipped in five yards on two carries.

Snaps: J.K. Dobbins: 73%, Kimani Vidal: 24%

In the passing game, Simi Fehoko was Herbert’s most productive receiver, catching two of four targets for 44 yards, including a 30-yard reception. Fehoko ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks.

Ladd McConkey was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 43 yards, accounting for a 26% Target share and 97 air yards. Fell just short of a TD with two targets inside the 10-yard line.

McConkey ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks despite suffering a head injury during the game. He does look to be okay, though, after returning to action. Assuming he is healthy, McConkey remains a top-trade target.

He has a 27% Target share on the season. Top 12 on the season. A great matchup is on deck versus Arizona, who just roasted from the slot.

Vidal was also involved in the passing game, catching two passes for 40 yards on two targets, including a long reception of 38 yards that went for a TD on a wheel route.

Josh Palmer also made an impact, grabbing two of his three targets for 38 yards, including a 24-yard reception. Palmer ran a route on 55% of the dropbacks.

Tight end Will Dissly caught four of his five targets for 26 yards, providing a reliable option in the short passing game. Hayden Hurst got hurt during the game. Dissly ran a route on 52.63% of the dropbacks.

Wide receiver Quentin Johnston was targeted four times but only managed 22 receiving yards on three catches. Johnston did miss time with an injury but returned. He ran a route on 45% of the dropbacks.

The remaining schedule is as follows: @ ARI, vs. NO, @ CLE, vs. TEN, vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ ATL, @ KC, vs. TB, vs. DEN, @ NE, and @ LV.
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Denver Broncos

Sell Javonte Williams | Add Troy Franklin & Audric Estime & Jaleel McLaughlin

The Denver Broncos relied on an efficient performance from quarterback Bo Nix, who completed 19 of 33 passes for 216 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished the game with a passer rating of 84.9 and added 61 rushing yards on six carries, including a long run of 21 yards.

In the run game, Javonte Williams led the backfield with six carries for 23 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Audric Estime contributed 13 yards on two carries, including an 11-yard run, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 8 yards on three carries. Williams also lost a fumble.

Snaps: Javonte Williams: 67%, Jaleel McLaughlin: 25%, Audric Estime: 4%

The Broncos’ passing attack was spread out across several key contributors. Devaughn Vele led the way with 78 receiving yards on four catches out of six targets, including a 37-yard reception and commanding an 18% Target share. However, his first catch didn’t come until the fourth quarter.

Courtland Sutton caught four of his six targets (19% Target share) for 53 yards and a touchdown, including a long catch of 20 yards. Sutton had a 46-yard chunk gain removed due to an offensive holding penalty. Sutton had one red zone target, converting it into a touchdown with his only catch.

Wide receiver Troy Franklin had an explosive impact, catching two passes for 31 yards, including a 29-yard reception and one touchdown. Franklin had one red zone target and converted it into a touchdown.

It is important to note the routes here because Josh Reynolds was inactive. Instead of the Lil’Jordan Humphrey show, the Broncos relied on the rookie WRs (never Marvin Mims).

Vele ran a route on 63% of the dropbacks, and Franklin ran a route on 61%. Franklin has continued to trend up the last few weeks. Stash him.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Broncos have a No.1-most favorable schedule for WRs. Vele (27%) and Franklin (26%) have both been targeted at a hyper rate this season.

McLaughlin and Williams also got involved in the passing game, with McLaughlin catching two passes for 17 yards and Williams recording three receptions for 13 yards on six targets. Lucas Krull, who saw four targets, finished with 11 yards on two catches.

Marvin Mims goose-egged on three targets. His one catch came off the board because of a penalty. Mims had 107 air yards and a team-high 32% air yard share. Will I bet Mims will score an anytime TD on Thursday night? Probably.

Denver will play the Saints reeling defense and Panthers in their next two games. There are two absolute smash spots for the Broncos running backs to get going. But after Williams struggled again and turned the ball over…we could see this backfield shift.

After the game, head coach Sean Payton said he wanted to see more of the rookies. Per the Thednvr.com, Payton said,” We are a young team. I want to see this runner as well. I want to see [Audric] Estime,” Payton said when asked about the young talent on offense. “We are going to see [Devaughn] Vele, and we are going to see [Troy] Franklin. We are not waiting to redshirt these guys. We will continue to see each week their involvement in the plan and how they fit. That is how you get confidence and get experience.”

I wanted to believe Williams was turning the corner after two strong weeks, but it might be over for him. He’s not a Payton guy, and he’s hardly given a great case for keeping him on the field. Cash out now, and make sure McLaughlin/Estime aren’t available on waivers. I will say that we are 0-2 on these RB starters getting benched (Swift, Stevenson). So if you can ship of Williams, there’s still a chance he can be a decent RB3/FLEX play for Week 7. But the clock is ticking. It is worth noting that Swift/Stevenson are committed to their teams, while Williams is a pending free agent. Woof.
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Carolina Panthers

Buy Diontae Johnson | Hold/Sell Chuba Hubbard | Add Xavier Leggette | Buy Jonathon Brooks

The Carolina Panthers saw solid production from their ground game, with running back Chuba Hubbard leading the charge. Hubbard carried the ball 18 times for 92 yards, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 19 yards. Hubbard carried the ball three times in the red zone for three yards but did not score. He was targeted twice without a receiving touchdown.

Snaps: Chuba Hubbard: 82%, Miles Sanders: 23%

I know some are optimistic about Jonathon Brooks seeing a sizeable workload down the stretch, but Hubbard has been too good for him to lose his job without an injury. He’s fourth in yards from scrimmage and ninth in touches. That being said, Brooks is going to come back sooner rather than later after his 21-day practice window was opened. He’s the future for the Panthers at running back, not Hubbard, who is on an expiring deal at the end of the season. The clock is potentially ticking on Hubbard’s role as a three-down workhorse, especially when it matters most in the fantasy football playoffs. If you need wins now, Hubbard is a hold. But if you are playing the long-term game, cashing out on Hubbard before Brooks returns seems like the sharp move. Or at least make sure you also have Brooks on your Hubbard rosters.

Quarterback Andy Dalton added 21 rushing yards on three carries, including a 7-yard scramble, while Miles Sanders struggled on the ground with just 1 yard on three carries.

In the passing game, Dalton completed 26 of 38 attempts for 221 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. His completion rate was 68.4%, and he finished with a passer rating of 78.9.

Wide receiver Diontae Johnson led the Panthers’ receiving corps with six receptions on ten targets, totaling 78 yards, including a 27% Target share and a long reception of 19 yards with one touchdown. Johnson had one red zone target and made the catch for a touchdown. DJ had 93 air yards, 37% air yard share.

Per Next Gen Stats, Johnson was frequently matched up against cornerback A.J. Terrell, hauling in all three of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown across 22 matchups against him, despite Terrell forcing a tight window on all three targets (0.7 yards of average target separation).

Tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders had a productive game, catching five of his seven targets (19% Target share) for 49 yards and a touchdown, including a 28-yard catch. Sanders was targeted once in the red zone but did not make a catch. The rookie ran a route on 68% of the dropbacks as the TE1 over Ian Thomas (returned from injury).

Jalen Coker was efficient, hauling in all three of his targets for 30 yards. He usurped Jonathan Mingo as the WR3 after a strong Week 5 outing. Coker ran a route on 70% of the dropbacks.

Xavier Legette contributed with three catches for 23 yards and a score on four targets, while David Moore added two receptions for 17 yards on two targets. Legette was targeted once in the red zone, making the catch and scoring a touchdown. Legette ran a route on 77.5% of the dropbacks, operating as the No. 2 WR.

Miles Sanders caught one pass for 12 yards, and Chuba Hubbard was active in the passing game as well, catching five of his six targets for 11 yards.

Carolina will face the Commanders in Week 7, followed by the Broncos, Saints, and Giants before a bye week.
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Atlanta Falcons

Price Check Kyle Pitts | Buy Darnell Mooney | Hold Bijan Robinson | Buy Tyler Allgeier

The Atlanta Falcons secured a solid performance on the ground and through the air in their matchup, led by strong showings from running backs Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson.

Tyler Allgeier carried the ball 18 times for 105 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and ripped off a long run of 20 yards with one touchdown. Allgeier had eight red zone rushing attempts, gaining 13 yards and scoring one rushing touchdown. He was also targeted once in the red zone but did not score a receiving touchdown.

Bijan Robinson added 95 rushing yards on 15 carries, scoring two touchdowns with an impressive 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 17 yards. Robinson had four red zone rushing attempts, gaining 18 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns. He was targeted once but did not score a receiving touchdown.

Robinson out-carried Allgeier 8 to 5 in this first half, with both B-Rob’s scores coming early. Allgeier took five carries to bleed the clock in the fourth quarter.

Snaps: Bijan Robinson: 56%, Tyler Allgeier: 41%

According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons’ running back duo totaled 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 33 combined carries in Week 6 against the Panthers.

It’s been six weeks, and Allgeier is not going away. And he’s the cheapest access point to the Falcons’ offense as a perceived handcuff. It seems like he can be relied on in certain situations. He sees nearly as much red-zone usage as Robinson does in full-on David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs fashion.

Kirk Cousins managed the passing game, completing 19 of 30 passes for 225 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a 63.3% completion rate and a passer rating of 97.2.

Drake London was Cousins’ primary target, catching six of 10 targets for 74 yards, including a long reception of 24 yards, a touchdown, and accounting for a 35% Target share. London was targeted three times in the red zone and converted two catches into one touchdown. He had 95 air yards, 52% air yard share.

Tight end Kyle Pitts also made an impact, catching three of five targets for 70 yards, including a 52-yard reception and a 17% Target share. Pitts ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks. He has been cashing in on the big plays, so I am afraid to this won’t sustain. Then again it’s tight end, so it’s already slim pickings. Put him on the trade block.

Darnell Mooney hauled in three of his five targets for 38 yards, showing off his speed with a long catch of 19 yards, while Ray-Ray McCloud was targeted four times, catching three passes for 30 yards. Mooney had two red zone targets but did not catch either or score. His air yards were also low (16). Cousins also missed him down the sideline with an underthrown ball that could have easily gone for six.

There were no downfield shots for Mooney in a low-passing game for Cousins. Buy low to get access to the Falcons’ offense.

Bijan Robinson also contributed to the passing game, catching all four of his three targets for 10 yards.

Atlanta plays the Seahawks next. All in all, you want to be a buyer on the Falcons after a relatively (and somewhat unsurprising) slow first month. Atlanta supporting our fantasy teams for the rest of the season should be the expectation.

Remaining schedule: @ TB, vs DAL, @ NO, @ DEN, BYE, vs LAC, @ MIN, @ LV, vs NYG and @ WAS.
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Pittsburgh Steelers

Sell Najee Harris | Hold Jaylen Warren & George Pickens | Buy Pat Freiermuth

The Pittsburgh Steelers secured a solid performance on the ground, highlighted by Najee Harris rushing 14 times for 106 yards and one touchdown. Harris averaged an impressive 7.6 yards per carry, including a long run of 36 yards. Harris had two red zone rushing attempts for four yards but no targets or touchdowns.

Quarterback Justin Fields also contributed with his legs, running 11 times for 59 yards and two rushing TDs, showing his dual-threat ability. Jaylen Warren, however, was limited to only 7 yards on six carries, struggling to find much room to operate.

Through the air, Justin Fields completed 14 of 24 passes for 145 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 75.9 and an average of 6 yards per attempt.

George Pickens was the top target, catching three of his eight targets for 53 yards, which accounted for 35% of the team’s Target share. His longest catch went for 31 yards, giving the passing game a big-play threat. Pickens ran a route on 71% of the dropbacks. Second straight week of his routes being down. Still, the usage was encouraging from a targets/air yards perspective. Pickens had 116 air yards, 53% air yard share.

Calvin Austin III was another reliable option, grabbing two of five targets for 36 yards, including a 20-yard reception.

Najee Harris also contributed as a receiver, with two catches for 16 yards on two targets, complementing his rushing production. Tight end Pat Freiermuth caught two of his three targets for 16 yards, while Jaylen Warren, despite his struggles on the ground, caught three of his targets for 11 yards.

Snaps: Najee Harris: 46%, Jaylen Warren: 37%, Jonathan Ward: 9%

Interestingly enough, Harris played the fewest snaps since Week 2 but had his best game by far in 2024. Warren was active for the first time since Week 3. That’s all it took for Harris to get his production going. Go figure.

I talked about last week how slow Najee has been traditionally, so I’d like to think this is a sign of things to come. However, this game stands out as a glaring outlier compared to his body of work this season. I think I’d use this opportunity to sell high on Harris. The schedule gets much tougher in the second half of the season with all six AFC North matchups.

The Raiders defense might have been the matchup he needed. Per Next Gen Stats, the Raiders have allowed a league-high +231 rushing yards over expectation this season.

I’ll admit that if Russell Wilson does indeed start, it helps Harris given his projection for rushing TDs and receptions. I’d expect Warren to also see a major bump in receiving usage.

The MUTH caught a TD, but it was called back on Fields throwing over the line of scrimmage.

The Steelers spread the ball around, with contributions from tight end Connor Heyward, who had one catch for 4 yards, and tight end Darnell Washington, who also recorded one catch for nine yards.

The Steelers will face NYJ and NYG in their next two games before a bye week. After that, they will play @ WAS, vs BAL, @ CLE, @ CIN, vs CLE, @ PHI, @ BAL and vs KC.

We also got news this week that the Steelers might start Russell Wilson this week.

Sources: The #Steelers plan to give Russell Wilson first-team reps in practice this week, putting him in line to make his season debut and start Sunday night against the #Jets.

Pittsburgh is 4-2 with Justin Fields. But Wilson’s calf is fully healed and now he gets his shot. pic.twitter.com/vrhgo7LfgO

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 15, 2024

Wilson under center will give a boost to the Steelers’ passing game, given the volume should just increase without Fields’ scrambles/rushing ability. As long as the offense doesn’t totally crater with Russ, it should be a boost for Najee Harris regarding touchdowns. Pickens should also see more volume. However, the decision to make this move before a Week 7 Jets matchup is odd, given their defense is weak against the run. I’m not sure this week we will see the Wilson boost reflected in Pickens’ box score. Would hold him for now. His 31% target per route run is top-10 this season.

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Las Vegas Raiders

Buy Brock Bowers | Hold Alexander Mattison & Jakobi Meyers | Add Tre Tucker

The Las Vegas Raiders leaned on quarterback Aidan O’Connell, who completed 27 of 40 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 79.9. O’Connell’s accuracy was solid, with a 67.5% completion rate, though his 5.7 yards per attempt indicated a lot of short, underneath throws.

On the ground, Alexander Mattison struggled, rushing 14 times for only 33 yards (2.4 yards per carry), though he did score the Raiders’ only rushing touchdown. Mattison rushed three times in the red zone for four yards and scored one rushing touchdown without any targets.

Ameer Abdullah provided a spark with 24 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 6 yards per rush, including a long run of 10 yards. Dylan Laube added one carry for no gain while also fumbling.

Snaps: Alexander Mattison: 68%, Ameer Abdullah: 30%

Tight end Brock Bowers led all receivers with nine catches on 10 targets, racking up 71 yards, which was 27% of the team’s Target share, although he didn’t find the end zone. He had another 18-yard gain wiped off due to a penalty. Bowers had 53 air yards, 29% air yard share. The rookie tight end ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks.

Wide receiver D.J. Turner caught two of his four targets for 37 yards, including an 18.5 yards per reception average and a 30-yard-long gain. Turner had 50 air yards, 27% air yard share.

Mattison contributed in the passing game with 32 receiving yards on five receptions (6.4 yards per reception), catching all five of his targets, adding to his rushing workload. He almost had a second TD that was removed due to a penalty.

Alex Bachman brought in three of three targets for 31 yards. Harrison Bryant caught three of five targets for 24 yards, while Kristen Wilkerson had two receptions on three targets for 18 yards and one touchdown.

Wilkerson had three red zone targets, catching two of them and scoring one touchdown.

Ameer Abdullah added three receptions for 14 yards on five targets to complement his rushing production. Tre Tucker went for zero yards on his two targets. It’s sad because Tucker ran a route on 98% of the dropbacks. It should have better production next week in a plus-matchup.

Las Vegas will face the Rams next. After that, the Raiders play vs. KC, and @ CIN before a Week 10 bye week.
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Detroit Lions

Buy Lions | Sell Sam LaPorta

The Detroit Lions put on an offensive clinic, led by quarterback Jared Goff‘s dominant performance through the air. Goff completed 18 of 25 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns, with a remarkable 72% completion rate and a stellar 153.8 passer rating.

On the ground, David Montgomery paced the Lions’ rushing attack, totaling 80 yards on 12 carries (6.7 yards per carry), including a long run of 19 yards and two TDs. Montgomery had three red zone rushing attempts for 18 yards, scoring two rushing touchdowns with no red zone targets.

Running back Jahmyr Gibbs chipped in with 63 yards on 12 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt and breaking a long run of 15 yards. Gibbs rushed twice for six yards and was targeted once without scoring in the red zone.

Craig Reynolds added 21 yards on six carries (garbage time), while Goff scrambled for five yards on three carries.

Snaps: Jahmyr Gibbs: 54%, David Montgomery: 31%, Craig Reynolds: 16%

Jameson Williams was the star of the receiving corps, catching all three of his four targets for 76 yards and a touchdown, including a long reception of 37 yards, accounting for a 16% Target share. Jamo had another TD nullified by an offensive pass interference call that led to a Lions’ field goal.

Kalif Raymond was also highly efficient, catching all four of his six targets for 73 yards, including a 56-yard reception. Tim Patrick added 68 receiving yards, catching three of his three targets.

Tight end Sam LaPorta contributed with a big play as well, hauling in his lone target for a 52-yard touchdown. If there’s anyone I would be selling, it would be LaPorta, simply because of his lack of target involvement this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was more involved in the short game, catching all four targets for 37 yards and one TD, while Gibbs also caught all five of his three targets out of the backfield for 28 yards. St. Brown was targeted twice in the red zone, converting both catches into one touchdown.

Offensive lineman Taylor Decker and fullback Sione Vaki both had a target each, though neither contributed significantly to the yardage.

Try not to read too much into the final snap counts, targets, etc., given that this game was a blowout victory. I said buy the Lions last week, and the message is the same this week for all intents and purposes. I will note that I prefer buying their running game to their passing game. Per FantasyPros’ SOS tool, they have the stone-cold worst schedule for both WRs/QBs for the rest of the season.

However, Detroit lost star pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to a devasting injury that required him to be carted off the field.

Detroit plays Minnesota and Tennessee over the next two weeks. Then the schedule is @ GB, @ HOU, vs JAC, @ IND, vs CHI, vs GB, vs BUF, @ CHI and @ SF.
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Dallas Cowboys

Buy CeeDee Lamb | Hold Rico Dowdle, Jalen Tolbert

The Dallas Cowboys offense struggled to get going in a tough outing, with quarterback Dak Prescott completing just 17 of 33 passes for 178 yards, throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns. Prescott’s 51.5% completion rate and a passer rating of 42.2 left much to be desired. Backup quarterback Cooper Rush stepped in with nearly 10 minutes remaining in the game, completing 8 of 11 passes for 46 yards.

Per Next Gen Stats, Prescott recorded a 23.7% dropback success rate, his 2nd-lowest rate in a game in his career.

On the ground, Rico Dowdle led the Cowboys in rushing with 25 yards on five carries, including a long run of 12 yards, but failed to find the end zone. Ezekiel Elliott managed 17 yards on eight carries, averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. KaVontae Turpin added six yards on his lone rushing attempt.

Snaps: Ezekiel Elliott: 41%, Rico Dowdle: 28%

Wouldn’t overly read into the Cowboys’ snap rates. He started the game still.

CeeDee Lamb was the standout for the Cowboys’ receiving corps, catching 7 of his 14 targets for 89 yards, including a long reception of 27 yards. Lamb commanded a 32% Target share, proving to be Prescott’s go-to option. Lamb had three red zone targets, converting one into a catch but no touchdown. Lamb had 110 air yards, 34% air yard share.

Jalen Tolbert caught four of five targets for 43 yards, while Dowdle was also active in the passing game, catching 5 of 6 targets for 30 yards out of the backfield. Tolbert ran a route on 96% of the dropbacks.

KaVontae Turpin added four catches on seven targets for 24 yards, while Jalen Brooks contributed 15 yards on one catch and six targets. Turpin ran a route on 43% of the dropbacks to Brooks’ 67%.

Brooks had two red zone targets but did not convert them into catches or touchdowns.

Tight end Jake Ferguson struggled to make a big impact, catching just three of his four targets for just 11 yards. Ferguson had two red zone targets, making two catches but not scoring.

The Cowboys failed to reach the end zone, with turnovers and inefficiency in the passing game stalling multiple drives. It was a rough performance for Prescott and the offense, as they look to regroup for the next matchup after their Week 7 bye week.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Dallas is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks.

The schedule is as follows: @ SF, @ ATL, vs PHI, vs HOU, @ WAS, vs NYG, vs CIN, @ CAR, vs TB, @ PHI.

Dallas is following the same script as last year. Start slow, go on the bye week, and “hopefully,” come out with guns blazing. Lamb is probably a sharp buy-low target as one of the true elite fantasy WRs.
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Cincinnati Bengals

Sell Zack Moss & Mike Gesicki | Buy Ja’Marr Chase & Chase Brown | Add Erick All Jr.

The Cincinnati Bengals’ offensive performance was balanced, led by quarterback Joe Burrow, who completed 19 of 28 passes for 208 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Burrow also made an impact on the ground, rushing four times for 55 yards, including a long run of 47 yards for a touchdown. His completion percentage was 67.9%, and his passer rating was 89.6.

In the rushing attack, Chase Brown took the lead with 10 carries for 53 yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 30 yards. Brown scored to ice the game but had another TD wiped away due to an offensive holding call.

Zack Moss contributed 13 yards on six carries but was limited to just 2.2 yards per carry. Moss also lost a fumble.

Snaps: Chase Brown: 62%, Zack Moss: 45%. Chase Brown szn also didn’t come to fruition (he also fumbled) but he got the lucky bounce with the ball going out of bounds. Brown started and out-snapped Moss for the first time all season.

The Bengals’ receiving corps was led by Tee Higgins, who hauled in all seven of his targets for 77 yards, boasting a 30% Target share and 31% air yards share. Ja’Marr Chase was not far behind, catching five of his six targets (26%) for 72 yards, including a long catch of 33 yards. Chase had a bad drop that could have generated a huge play after the catch. Still led the team in total air yards (52, 39%). Always buy low.

Andrei Iosivas made the most of his three targets, catching all two of them for 36 yards, including a big 29-yard reception.

Brown also made an impact in the passing game, catching two passes on three targets for 11 yards. Tight end Erick All caught two of his three targets for 10 yards, while Moss added one catch on one target for two yards. All Jr. was targeted twice in the red zone, catching both passes but not scoring a touchdown. All ran more routes than Mike Gesicki for the first time all season.

Matchups are the Browns, Eagles, and Raiders as their next slate of opponents.
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New York Giants

Hold Malik Nabers | Add Darius Slayton & Wan’Dale Robinson | Buy Tyrone Tracy Jr.

The New York Giants struggled offensively in their matchup, as quarterback Daniel Jones completed just 22 of 41 passes for 205 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. Jones also contributed on the ground, rushing 11 times for 56 yards, including a long run of 13 yards. His completion percentage of 53.7% and a passer rating of 57.5 reflected the tough day through the air.

On the ground, rookie running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. led the team in carries, rushing 17 times for 50 yards, though he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry. Eric Gray added 13 yards on three carries, averaging 4.3 yards per rush.

Snaps: Tyrone Tracy: 84%, Eric Gray: 18%

Elite usage for the rookie running back. Devin Singletary might return soon, but there’s no way that Tracy will be a clear backup anymore.

In the passing game, Darius Slayton was the most targeted receiver, seeing 11 targets and hauling in 6 receptions for 57 yards, commanding a 30.5% Target share. Slayton ran a route on 86.67% of the dropbacks with 107 air yards and 44% air yard share.

Tracy was also involved in the passing game, catching six of his six targets for 57 yards out of the backfield. Wan’Dale Robinson caught 5 of his 11 targets for 50 yards (30.5% Target share), though he struggled to make a big impact with a long catch of 15 yards. Robinson ran a route on 77.78% of the dropbacks.

Tight end Theo Johnson added three catches on three targets for 30 yards, while wide receiver Jalin Hyatt was limited, catching just one of his four targets for 6 yards. Hyatt ran a route on 77.78% of the dropbacks, and Johnson ran a route on 64.44% of the dropbacks. Hyatt commanded 70 air yards (29% air yard share).

Isaiah Hodgins caught one target for five yards.

The Giants will play the Eagles in Week 7, followed by the Steelers, Commanders, and Panthers before a bye week.
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New York Jets

Buy Breece Hall | Price Check Garrett Wilson | Hold Braelon Allen | Sell Allen Lazard | Drop Tyler Conklin

In the New York Jets’ recent game, quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 23 of 35 passes for 294 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers posted a 65.7% completion rate and a 99.0 passer rating, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt.

Breece Hall led the ground game with 18 carries for 113 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 42 yards. Hall contributed five catches for 56 yards, including a long of 24 yards on six targets (18% Target share).

Backup running back Braelon Allen added three carries for 8 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry. He did have a rushing touchdown negated by a penalty.

Snaps: Breece Hall 87%, Braelon Allen 19%.

The Week 6 snap counts were the highest difference between these two Jets running backs this season. With new OC Todd Downing calling plays in the post-Robert Saleh era, Hall was a full-blown workhorse. He didn’t find the end zone, falling short a few different times. He got stuffed on his lone carry inside the 5-yard line. He got tackled at the 7-yard line and 3-yard line

Buy. Meanwhile, this likely regulates Allen back to just handcuff status without much stand-alone appeal. And Davante Adams‘ arrival will just improve the offense overall sending Hall’s value to the moon.

Aside from a more established rushing attack, the Jets also used more motion under Downing. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jets used motion on a season-high 72.9% of plays on Monday night, gaining a season-high 7.7 yards per play when using motion.

Allen Lazard was the top target, catching six of seven passes for 114 yards, including a long reception of 52 yards, averaging 19 yards per catch. Lazard hauled in a first-half Hail Mary touchdown reception from Rodgers. Lazard also had two red-zone targets, a 21% Target share, and 108 air yards.

Eventually, Lazard’s hot TD streak is going to run out – and with the addition of Davante Adams – you’ll be happy you got off the ride. Among the Jets WRs, Lazard’s production figures to take the biggest hit.

Garrett Wilson caught eight of 10 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown, averaging 13.4 yards per reception with a long of 24 yards. Wilson had four red-zone targets and a 29% Target share.

Wilson was a sell-high for me last week, given that I was still concerned about Davante Adams finding his way to New York. Wilson posted back-to-back 100-yard games, so there’s still strong value attached to his brand.

Now that Adams has officially been traded to the Jets, the sell window for Wilson has been closed, at least for now. The reason is that the schedule (as I’ve alluded to in previous versions of the forecast) is great in the second half for the Jets offense. And the next two matchups are also tough against two of the league’s top cornerbacks, Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. But if Adams takes top coverage…Wilson might be okay in the short term.

And keep in mind that Rodgers has supported the fantasy value of two wide receivers this season, Lazard and Wilson. Given that the Wilson manager is probably panicking, WR-needy teams should throw a low bone to Wilson with his stock at ground zero. At least go for a price check on aisle Wilson.

Tight end Tyler Conklin had two catches for 10 yards. He only ran a route on 60% of the dropbacks and played 73% of the snaps, both of which were season lows. I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that Conklin’s bad game came when Hall was heavily involved as a receiver. TEs and RBs often compete for similar underneath targets. Throwing Adams into the fold makes Conklin completely irrelevant. He can be dropped.

Jeremy Ruckert added two catches for 7 yards, while Allen did not register a reception despite being targeted twice. Mike Williams goose-egged on his three targets. He also suffered a head injury toward the end of the game.

The Jets will play the Steelers in Week 7. Then it’s @ NE, vs HOU, @ ARI, vs IND before a bye week. Post-bye week Gang Green will play vs SEA, @ MIA, @ JAC, vs LAR and @ BUF.
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Buffalo Bills

Add Ray Davis | Buy Amari Cooper | Hold Khalil Shakir

In the Buffalo Bills’ recent game, quarterback Josh Allen was highly efficient, completing 19 of 25 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. Allen’s accuracy was evident, with a 76% completion rate, resulting in a 127.9 passer rating and an average of 8.6 yards per attempt. He also contributed on the ground with nine carries for 18 yards and a rushing touchdown.

Rookie Ray Davis was the workhorse, carrying the ball 20 times for 97 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, with a long of 15 yards. He looked like he couldn’t be tackled. The rookie also earned six red-zone carries but fell short of a touchdown.

Ty Johnson had four carries for 34 yards, averaging an impressive 8.5 yards per carry, including a 13-yard run.

Snaps: Ray Davis 58%, Ty Johnson 36%.

James Cook was ruled out right before game time, putting Davis into the starting role.

Davis was also a key receiving target out of the backfield, catching all three of his targets for 55 yards, including a long reception of 42 yards on a broken off-script play from Allen.

Given how well both Buffalo RBs played, we could see less of a workload for Cook when he returns from injury.

Per Next Gen Stats, Davis forced five missed tackles across 23 offensive touches.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid caught six of seven targets for 51 yards, averaging 8.5 yards per reception, with a long catch of 15 yards. 30% Target share while leading Buffalo in routes run.

Curtis Samuel was productive with three receptions for 44 yards, averaging 14.7 yards per catch, with a long of 38 yards. 18% Target share while leading the team in air yards.

Keon Coleman added four catches for 32 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per reception. He finished second in routes run.

Khail Shakir made the most of his two catches, gaining 19 yards with a long of 10 yards. Coming into the game not fully healthy, Shakir was limited. He only played 38% of the snaps. As he gets healthier, he should reclaim his status as the Bills No. 1 WR.

Well, at least that was the thought before Monday afternoon. The Bills traded for Browns WR Amari Cooper, to improve their wide receiver room. After opening the year hoping for the young players to step up, Buffalo realized they needed to add another weapon for Allen. Cooper has been a major disappointment in fantasy football this season, but it’s not for a lack of opportunity or abilities in my estimation. Eighth in Target share (28%), seventh in targets, third in air yards share (50%) and second in air yards overall (697). His issue has been mostly Deshaun Watson – aside from the bone-headed drops Cooper has from time to time. The former Browns WR has the third-lowest catchable target rate (62%) among WRs with at least 25 targets this season per FantasyPoints data.

Dawson Knox chipped in with one catch for 12 yards for a touchdown. Mack Hollins had the other touchdown score (two red-zone targets).

Buffalo plays the Titans in Week 6, followed by the Seahawks and Dolphins.
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Bye Week Teams

Kansas City Chiefs

Hold/Buy Travis Kelce & Xavier Worthy | Buy Kareem Hunt | Add JuJu Smith-Schuster

The Kansas City Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, had a strong showing. Mahomes completed 28 of 39 pass attempts for 331 yards, though he did not throw a touchdown and had one interception in the red zone. He spread the ball effectively across several receivers.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes accumulated nearly all of his passing production on attempts under 15 air yards (300 of 331 yards) in the Chiefs win over the Saints.

He was just 1 of 3 for 31 yards on passes over 15 air yards. Mahomes also featured play action on 27.3% of dropbacks, finishing 10 of 12 for 167 yards and an interception (13.9 YPA on play action, 6.1 without). Mahomes did not throw into a tight window on any of his 39 pass attempts.

JuJu Smith-Schuster was the top target, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets (23% Target share) for 130 yards, including a long catch of 50 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, JuJu added 83 yards after the catch (+16 YAC over expected), the highest mark by a Chiefs receiver this season.

Smith-Schuster’s massive game will warrant waiver wire consideration, but he’s on a bye week in Week 6. I’d expect Xavier Worthy‘s role to increase in full post-bye week fashion, so I would be hesitant to go overboard for Smith-Schuster even after the big Monday night game in Week 5. Worthy ran more routes (32 vs 28) than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson ran more routes than Smith-Schuster as well (29).

Tight end Travis Kelce also saw heavy involvement, catching nine of his 10 targets (29% Target share) for 70 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, Kelce was targeted eight times against zone, catching 7 for 57 yards and accumulating 30 yards after the catch (2/2, 13 yards vs man). Kelce averaged over 5 yards of separation against zone coverage (5.5), compared to 3.3 yards of separation versus man coverage.

Wide receiver Mecole Hardman was targeted four times, catching all four passes for 33 yards. He only played eight snaps on offense, so he was heavily targeted on a per-route basis.

Noah Gray also made the most of his limited opportunities, catching both of his two targets for 29 yards.

Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy targeted six times (17% Target share), caught three passes for 25 yards, and scored a rushing touchdown. Running backs Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine each caught one pass (Perine’s only touch), with Hunt gaining 15 yards on his target, while Perine picked up 14 yards on his two targets.

On the ground, Kareem Hunt was the workhorse, carrying the ball 27 times for 102 yards and a touchdown on a 63% snap share, though his longest run was only 8 yards, indicating a grind-it-out performance at 3.8 yards per carry. It’s pretty clear that Hunt has been featured as RB1 after the last two weeks. Perine can be dropped.

Mahomes himself contributed with six rushes for 22 yards. Backup running back Carson Steele had five carries for 12 yards. Steele is nothing more than a handcuff, and he can be dropped.

KC is coming off a Week 6 bye week. Then, they will play the 49ers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Broncos, and Bills.
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Miami Dolphins

Buy Dolphins | Add Jaylen Wright | Sell Raheem Mostert

The Miami Dolphins’ offense, led by quarterback Tyler Huntley, had a mixed performance back in Week 5. Huntley completed 18 of 31 passes for 194 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a completion percentage of 58.1% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt.

In the running game, rookie Jaylen Wright was the most productive rusher, carrying the ball 13 times for 86 yards, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 17 yards. Wright logged two red zone carries. He finished Week 5 as PFF’s highest-graded rusher.

Raheem Mostert returned to the lineup and had 19 carries for 80 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, while De’Von Achane contributed three carries for 18 yards, with a long run of 12 yards. Huntley added three carries for seven yards. Achane left the game early with a concussion. Mostert led the first half with 10 carries for 39 yards. The snap share split was Mostert leading the charge at 56%, followed by Wright at 32%. This was because Mostert was running more routes (18 versus 8). But Mostert has never traditionally been the preferred receiver for Mike McDaniel, so it was probably more based on the injury to Achane.

Per Next Gen Stats, Miami ran the ball effectively with a power run game powered by fullback Alec Ingold.

The Dolphins totaled 160 rushing yards across 31 designed runs (5.2 YPC) with Alec Ingold on the field in Week 5, compared to just 26 yards across eight carries with Ingold off the field (3.3 YPC).

While Jaylen Wright (86) and Raheem Mostert (80) led the team in rushing yards, Ingold scored the only Dolphins rushing touchdown of the day on a 3-yard red zone carry in the fourth quarter. Ingold tied his career-high with 39 snaps in Week 5, as the Dolphins utilized 21 personnel on a season-high 36 snaps (48.0%).

In the receiving game, Tyreek Hill was the top target with nine (29% Target share), catching six passes for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch. Hill was targeted two times in the red zone but had no catches or touchdowns. He came close to a TD but was ruled out of bounds.

Tight end Jonnu Smith had eight targets, hauling in five passes for 62 yards, including a long of 17 yards, with 31 yards after the catch. Jaylen Waddle was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 46 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per catch, with a long of 20 yards and 4 yards after the catch.

Watching this game live, Waddle saw all the early opportunities. Hill caught Christian Gonzalez‘s shadow coverage. Per Next Gen Stats, Gonzalez lined up against Hill on 21 of 29 routes (72.4%) in Week 5, allowing two receptions for 34 yards on five targets as the nearest defender.

Gonzalez was targeted nine total times in Week 5, the 2nd-most in a game in his career, allowing three receptions for 45 yards, including one interception. Entering the Sunday afternoon slate, Gonzalez has allowed -3.3 receptions over expected, 6th-fewest among cornerbacks.

Raheem Mostert contributed in the passing game as well, catching two targets for 18 yards with a long of 10 yards. Odell Beckham Jr. was targeted twice but did not record a catch, while Achane had one reception for negative yards.

Miami was on a bye week in Week 6, which has made many forget about Wright’s big game. And I would presume that Achane will clear the concussion protocol with extra time. However, remember that Wright saw carries in this game before Achane exited. He also had a massive 35-yard gain taken away due to a holding call. Given both Mostert’s and Achane’s injury track records in the long term, I want to stash Wright on my bench for maximum upside. He may be the most productive RB for the Dolphins for the rest of the season. The rookie just had a breakout game that likely isn’t garnering the attention it truly deserves.

If you can sell Mostert as the presumed “starter” after Achane’s injury… I would do so.

Overall, the move with the Dolphins hasn’t changed. Buy them behind the thesis that Tua Tagovailoa will return in Week 8. In Week 7, they will play at the Colts.

Buying low on Dolphins is not what you do with the short term in mind. It’s 100% about the season’s long haul and second half.
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Minnesota Vikings

Add T.J. Hockenson | Add Ty Chandler

The Minnesota Vikings’ offense struggled in their recent game, with Sam Darnold at quarterback, completing 14 of 31 passes for 179 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He had a low completion percentage of 45.2% and a passer rating of 50.3. Nick Mullens made a brief appearance, completing his only pass for 24 yards, giving him a perfect passer rating of 118.8.

The Jets generated pressure on 15 of the Vikings’ 37 dropbacks (40.5%), sacking Sam Darnold four times, according to Next Gen Stats.

In the rushing department, Ty Chandler led the team with 14 carries for 30 yards, averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. His biggest run of 32 yards was called back to do an illegal shift penalty.

Aaron Jones followed with seven carries for 29 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per rush. Darnold ran the ball five times for 11 yards, while C.J. Ham and Myles Gaskin added minor contributions on the ground. Ham scored a goal-line touchdown.

Do not be optimistic that Jones will just make his way back into the starting lineup come Week 7 (the Vikings are coming off a Week 6 bye), given the severity of his hip injury.

Chandler would inherit RB1 duties in Jones’ absence. He played a 63% snap share despite Jones starting the game (22% snap share). Be ahead of the curve on waivers, scooping him up.

Justin Jefferson had a solid outing, catching six of his 14 targets for 92 yards (50% Target share, 214 air yards), averaging 15.3 yards per reception. Jordan Addison hauled in three of his eight targets (28% Target share, 153 air yards) for 36 yards, while tight end Johnny Mundt added 31 yards on two catches from 2 targets.

Jones and Myles Gaskin contributed with one reception each, and Chandler added two catches for 9 yards.

Minnesota is returning from a Week 6 bye. If you are hurting at tight end (aren’t we all), testing the trade market/free agency waivers on T.J. Hockenson might make sense.

After the bye week, Minnesota plays vs DET, @ LAR, vs IND, @ JAC, @ TEN, @ CHI and vs ARI.

This is a GREAT schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend.

Note that Addison’s hearing was originally slated for October 7th, stemming from his off-field incident earlier this offseason. However, as of that date in question, the arraignment and plea hearing for Addison, stemming from two misdemeanor charges in July for DUI, is now scheduled for Dec. 3, according to Superior Court of California online records per ESPN’s Kevin Seifert.
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Los Angeles Rams

Add Blake Corum & Jordan Whittington | Sell/Hold Kyren Williams | Drop Demarcus Robinson

Matthew Stafford completed 29 of 45 passes for 260 yards with one touchdown and one interception. His completion percentage was 64.4%, and he posted a passer rating of 78.0, with an average of 5.8 yards per attempt.

Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 102 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 30 yards. Rookie Blake Corum added 25 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 5 yards per carry, with a long of 12 yards. Corum logged three red zone carries without scoring to Williams’ four red zone carries. Corum had two carries inside the 5-yard line. Kyren only had one but scored from the one-yard line after Corum couldn’t punch it in. Could this be a sign of things to come? Potentially. Corum hasn’t been used at all this season until this point. Going into the bye week, we could see his role expanded, as oftentimes happens with rookies. Again, there is no need to sell Williams away. Most, if not all, running backs are in some kind of committee.

If anything, I am prioritizing making sure Corum is on my bench if I have Williams as my RB1. Remember that Williams’ fantasy production has been heavily weighed by his seven touchdowns.

He ended Week 5 with fewer yards from scrimmage than Bijan Robinson despite ranking second in the NFL in total touches (109) through five weeks.

But I think I’m just bitter about having faded Williams during the draft season. He’s doing exactly what he did last year. And the Rams’ offense could ascend in the second half. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have a No.1-most favorable schedule for RBs. Maybe more of a reason to add Corum than sell Williams. Especially with the Raiders coming up, having just given up a big game to Najee Harris in Week 6.

Tutu Atwell also contributed with one rush for seven yards in the red zone.

In the receiving game, Jordan Whittington led with 10 targets, catching seven passes for 89 yards, averaging 12.7 yards per reception, with a long of 31 yards and 55 yards after the catch (YAC). Tutu Atwell was also targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 58 yards, with an average of 9.7 yards per catch, a long of 24 yards, and 18 YAC. He also commanded 133 air yards.

I know dropping Whittington on the bye week is tempting, but I would try not to. He’s the prime beneficiary of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua‘s injuries. If they don’t return as anticipated or get re-injured, you’ll be glad you stashed Whittington for the long haul.

The latest on Kupp: Coach Sean McVay said last Monday that a Week 7 return for Kupp (ankle) “would be an ideal target,” but added that was an “optimistic target date” and “by no means is that guaranteed,” Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic reports. The newest update is that it’s “possible” that he will return this week after a strong practice to open the week.

Tight end Colby Parkinson caught 7 of his 13 targets for 52 yards, averaging 7.4 yards per catch with a long of 19 yards. Parkinson was targeted two times in the red zone but did not register a catch or a touchdown. He has the most red-zone targets (six) without a TD. But if he is available, snag him if you need a tight end. Usage is unmatched. Eventually, the production will follow at some point.

Demarcus Robinson caught three of five targets for 28 yards, averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a long of 16 yards with a touchdown.

Hunter Long caught both of his two targets for 16 yards, with an 8-yard average. Blake Corum was targeted once and caught one pass for 8 yards, and Xavier Smith had two catches on two targets for 2 yards. Kyren Williams was targeted once.

Whittington led with 10 targets (22% Target share), followed by Atwell (22%), Parkinson with 13 targets (29%), and Robinson with five targets (11% Target share). Robinson caught his only red zone target and scored a touchdown.

The Rams are returning from a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needed the bye week to get its roster healthy and closer to full strength. Then it’s vs. LV, vs. MIN, @ SEA, vs. MIA, @ NE, vs. PHI, and @ NO.
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