Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 5 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.

Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.

And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.

Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.

Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!

So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 6 to prepare our rosters for future success.

Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 6 slate.

• More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
• Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
• Fantasy Football Trade Tools

Week 6 Fantasy Football Forecast

Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below!

Trade Advice

My thoughts on this week’s trade market.

• New this week to the forecast: A price check. Brandon Aiyuk‘s polarizing position last week as both a potential buy and sell helped me realize that certain players can fit both categories as a buy or sell. Especially when it comes down to team needs. Winless teams need assets different from those leading their leagues, and regardless, gaining value matters in a vacuum. With certain players, it makes sense to sell them if they are overvalued and buy them if they are undervalued. But I’m not in your league. I don’t know what the price of said player is. But what I do know with my pulse on the market is players whose values will be DIFFERENT across leagues.
• Be realistic with your expectations for a trade. Are you sacrificing short-term value for long-term gain? Or vice-versa? Remember, the goal for fantasy football is to make the postseason. At that point, it is anybody’s game.
• But all in all, you have to usually side with the long-term bet in a trade rather than the short-term. You might “lose” after a few weeks, but be patient. Aggregating players with strong long-term outlooks will provide you with the most ROI as opposed to the guys who are the new hotness.
• A potential lost art of trading is to “sell high” on a player’s perceived production-a la Xavier Worthy from last week. The main sentiment was that he would explode in the Chiefs offense, absent Rashee Rice. Even though he scored, that turned out not to be the case. I think selling high on these kinds of players for proven producers is smart. Again, there is no guarantee that the player will indeed take on that new role, and if they do, you will still get fair value in a trade based on the return. Seems at worst you’ll just break even.
• Buy second-year RBs. I wrote about it as a dynasty tactic back during the summer, but the same principles apply with these RBs seeing ginormous boosts in value compared to Year 1.
• Notable second-year RBs you want to roster ROS: Bijan Robinson, Jahmy Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, Roschon Johnson, Chase Brown, Jaleel McLaughlin, Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears etc.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy/Hold Rachaad White & Bucky Irving | Buy Chris Godwin

In the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ recent game, quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 19 of 24 pass attempts for 180 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions. Mayfield posted a strong 79.2% completion rate with a passer rating of 137.5.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mayfield was at his best on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds against the Falcons (11/12, 125 yards, 3 TD), in part due to the Atlanta defense’s lack of pressure. This has been a recurring theme with the Falcons’ defense all season: no pressure.

Mayfield was under pressure on only five of 30 dropbacks (16.7%), with all five pressures coming in the second half. Mayfield also made plays with his legs as a scrambler, which accounted for five of his six carries for 43 yards, including an 18-yard scramble early in the fourth quarter (18.84 mph top speed), with the game tied at 27-27.

Rachaad White led the ground game with 10 carries for 72 yards, including a 56-yard burst, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. Bucky Irving also contributed 44 yards on nine carries (4.9 YPC), with his longest run being 16 yards. Irving recorded three red zone carries and one red zone target but did not score a touchdown. Like in Week 4, Irving was the preferred red-zone back, coming just shy of a rushing touchdown from the 6- and 2-yard lines.

White caught all three of his targets for just -6 yards while running more routes than Irving (47% versus 30%). The route usage was the same as Week 4, while the snap percentages bounced back in White’s favor at 64% to Irving’s 43% snap rate.

We are in a pretty even 60-40 split between White/Irving, with the rookie emerging as the superior ball carrier and preferred red-zone back. I think that gives him the slightest edge over White for the rest of the season, but it’s razor close. Might come down to specific matchups and game scripts as to who is the more productive Buccaneers running back on a week-to-week basis.

Simply put, you want Irving in half-PPR and White in PPR formats.

Therefore, I think both running backs are buys/holds especially after neither did anything special on Thursday night. They are running backs in a committee – which is the majority of backfields in 2024 – in a good offense. Beggers can’t be choosers.

Mayfield added 42 rushing yards on six attempts.

Chris Godwin was the team’s top target, catching five of six passes (25% Target share) for 64 yards (12.8 yards per catch) with 37 yards after the catch (YAC).

Mike Evans followed closely, grabbing five of seven targets for 62 yards, including a long catch of 23 yards. He led with a 29% Target share and 51% air yards share, scoring two touchdowns.

Tight end Cade Otton made an impact with 44 receiving yards on three catches and four targets, averaging 14.7 yards per reception. Irving contributed 12 receiving yards on two catches, while Sterling Shepard caught a four-yard touchdown. Shepard stepped in as the No. 3 WR, running a route on 57% of the dropbacks. Kameron Johnson got hurt during the contest.

Tampa will play the Saints, Ravens, and Falcons in the next three games.

I like the Buccaneers in this Week 6 spot with extra rest against the Saints playing on a short week. We know that Evans sometimes struggles in his bi-annual matchup against Marshon Lattimore, so Godwin might be a sneaky buy after Thursday night. The Bucs slot WR has a 27% Target share this season.
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Atlanta Falcons

Sell Kyle Pitts | Add Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson | Hold Tyler Allgeier

In the Atlanta Falcons’ latest game, quarterback Kirk Cousins had an outstanding performance, completing 42 of 58 pass attempts for 509 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. Cousins maintained a 72.4% completion rate, finishing the game with a passer rating of 114.8.

On the ground, Bijan Robinson led the team with 12 carries for 61 yards (5.1 YPC), with his longest run being 28 yards. Tyler Allgeier contributed 12 yards on six carries (2.0 YPC). Each RB caught three of their targets for minimal yardage.

Robinson carried the ball three times in the red zone without scoring. The touchdowns continue to evade B-Rob, but it’s not for a lack of efficiency/usage.

Robison played 67% of the snaps to Allgeier’s 36% on Thursday night.

As I mentioned last week, B-Rob has been disappointing, but there’s room for growth. There’s a buy-low window for RB that could be a cheat code at the position. Take the leap. Bijan is 13th in total yards from scrimmage and 14th in touches. The touchdowns will come.

Drake London had a massive day receiving, catching 12 of 13 targets (22% Target share) for 154 yards and one touchdown, averaging 12.8 yards per reception with 52 yards after the catch (YAC). He did receive medical attention during this game, so keep that in mind heading into Week 6.

Darnell Mooney also made a significant impact, hauling in nine of 16 targets (28% Target share) for 105 yards, with the longest reception of 28 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, 13 of Mooney’s targets came when he was aligned out wide (career-high). He also accumulated a whopping 192 air yards.

Mooney caught six of his 16 targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns, with most of his production coming when facing off coverage (seven catches for 86 yards, two touchdowns). The Falcons had a 49.0% pre-snap win probability before Mooney’s drop on third down late in the fourth quarter. Had Mooney caught the ball, the probability of the Falcons’ winning would have risen to 61.1% (+12.1%). On the next play, the Falcons 54-yard field goal try was blocked, resulting in their win probability dropping to 22.4%.

Tight end Kyle Pitts added 88 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions, showing big-play ability with a 45-yard longest reception and 43 YAC, 48 air yards-14% Target share, and his route participation is back up to 81%-his highest rate since Week 1.

But he was just fourth in total targets, trailing No. 3 Ray-Ray McCloud III, who saw nine targets, catching six for 66 yards.

So, although this might appear to be Pitts’ breakout performance, it’s a sell-high opportunity after an outlier game from the Falcons offense.

KhaDarel Hodge made a splash with two receptions for 67 yards, including a 45-yard reception and the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Atlanta plays the Panthers and Seahawks over the next two weeks. All in all, you want to be a buyer on the Falcons after a relatively (and somewhat unsurprising) slow first month. Week 5 won’t be the norm, but Atlanta supporting our fantasy teams for the rest of the season should be the expectation.
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New York Jets

Buy/Hold Breece Hall | Sell/Hold Garrett Wilson | Hold Braelon Allen | Sell Allen Lazard

The New York Jets faced offensive struggles, with Aaron Rodgers completing 29 of 54 passes for 244 yards and two touchdowns but also throwing three interceptions. He had a completion percentage of just 53.7% and a passer rating of 54.9. He also got banged up in the game.

Per Next Gen Stats, Rodgers averaged a time to throw of 2.48 seconds against the Vikings, his 2nd-quickest time to throw this season.

The Jets’ ground game was limited, with Breece Hall leading the rushing efforts, carrying the ball nine times for 23 yards (2.6 YPC). Braelon Allen added 13 yards on five carries, averaging 2.6 yards per carry.

WOOF. As chairman of the Breece Hall RB1 board, I can’t help but feel terrible about Hall’s recent performances. He had two of his worst games in back-to-back weeks. At least this week, Allen wasn’t much better, as the entire Jets offense couldn’t do much of anything on the ground.

Both Allen and Breece Hall also contributed in the receiving game but with minimal yardage. Hall commanded four targets, catching three balls for 14 yards to Allen’s two.

The snaps were also still heavily in favor of Hall (74%) to Allen’s 26%, with Hall dominating the routes out of the backfield.

I was originally in the camp where Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has numbered days left in New York. When teams struggle, somebody has to be the scapegoat, and Hackett looks to be that guy. I imagined they would promote quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Todd Downing as the new OC. He has been with the Jets since last season and was the former OC in Tennessee from 2021-2022. The dude knows how to build an offense around the running game, which has been severely lacking in the Jets’ offense.

Welp Tuesday morning we got news that Jets head coach Robert Saleh got the axe. Prepare for the dead cat bounce.

The #Jets fired Robert Saleh, per sources. pic.twitter.com/Iefg3Ul0ca

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) October 8, 2024

I can’t guarantee this will fix everything in the long term, but it’s a start. Teams rally after coaching firings all the time. How this impacts the offense (with Saleh being defensive-minded) remains to be seen.

Again, Hall still ranks fourth-worst in success rate this season. I wish this was an outlier, but Hall’s boom-or-bust rushing style leads to poor rushing success rates, especially when he’s not ripping off the big plays we are so accustomed to seeing him create.

If you haven’t taken my advice and already acquired Hall (apologies in advance), I still think he’s a buy-low. The Jets offensive’s woes have been amplified by the fact that they have faced the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses, respectively, in EPA/play allowed the last two weeks. The Jets ran 19 pass plays in a row before breaking the streak with a Hall rush attempt late in the game.

Hall is still inside the top 12 in touches at the position. Before the last two weeks, Hall was RB6 overall, averaging nearly 18 points per game. Last year, through five games, Hall was RB18, averaging 10.9 points per game. He’s ahead of where he was last season still.

He turned it on in the second half of 2023, and still think that is firmly in Hall’s range of outcomes. Only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams were superior to Hall from Week 6 onward during the 2023 season.

I am trying not to let my off-season excitement about Hall cloud my judgment. But I’m still just a strong believer in talent and the fact that there’s a path where this Jets offense can turn things around. The offensive environment is hurting Hall more than anything, so I am trying to keep that in mind before completely burying the player.

Get rid of a bad head coach, trade for Adams to improve the overall offensive output (which seems all but done, given Aaron Rodgers‘ status as CEO of the Jets), and soon, we will be cooking with gas.

Garrett Wilson was a bright spot in the passing game, hauling in 13 of 22 targets (41% Target share) for 101 yards, with a longest reception of 16 yards and an impressive 56 yards after the catch (YAC). Wilson had four red zone targets, catching two of them and scoring one touchdown.

Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson was targeted a career-high 22 times on 56 routes, resulting in 13 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown (39.3% target rate).

All 13 of Wilson’s receptions came on short targets (under 10 air yards), including 16 of his 22 targets, the most targets, and receptions under 10 air yards in a game in Wilson’s career.

If you have Wilson, you are thrilled with this performance. However, it’s still overshadowed by the fact it took Wilson 22 targets to reach his first 100-yard game of the season. With the Davante Adams reunion in New York rumors heating up, especially with Saleh gone – you have to put Wilson on the trade block and see if you can get any bites. Nobody can pinpoint exactly when and if this trade will go down, but it just makes so much sense for the Jets to trade for Adams. Be ahead of the curve.

Tight end Tyler Conklin caught six of nine targets (17%) for 55 yards, showing solid production with 40 YAC.

Allen Lazard added four receptions for 34 yards (10 targets, 18% Target share, 121 air yards), and Mike Williams contributed two catches for 25 yards on four targets. Lazard was targeted three times in the red zone, catching one pass and scoring one touchdown.

Eventually, Lazard’s hot TD streak is going to run out – maybe with the addition of Davante Adams – and you’ll be happy you got off the ride. Williams will play a bigger role in this offense (season-high in routes in Week 5) if he’s not sent to the Raiders as part of an Adams trade. That is very possible, given that the Raider’s current GM, Tom Telesco, knows Williams from their time spent together in Los Angeles/San Diego.
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Minnesota Vikings

Add T.J. Hockenson | Add Ty Chandler

The Minnesota Vikings’ offense struggled in their recent game, with Sam Darnold at quarterback, completing 14 of 31 passes for 179 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He had a low completion percentage of 45.2% and a passer rating of 50.3. Nick Mullens made a brief appearance, completing his only pass for 24 yards, giving him a perfect passer rating of 118.8.

The Jets generated pressure on 15 of the Vikings’ 37 dropbacks (40.5%), sacking Sam Darnold four times, according to Next Gen Stats.

In the rushing department, Ty Chandler led the team with 14 carries for 30 yards, averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. His biggest run of 32 yards was called back to do an illegal shift penalty.

Aaron Jones followed with seven carries for 29 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per rush. Darnold ran the ball five times for 11 yards, while C.J. Ham and Myles Gaskin added minor contributions on the ground. Ham scored a goal-line touchdown.

Jones is scheduled to undergo an MRI on his right hip Monday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. As a result, he missed time in this game. Do not be optimistic that Jones will just make his way back into the starting lineup come Week 7 (the Vikings are on a Week 6 bye).

Chandler would inherit RB1 duties in Jones’ absence. He played a 63% snap share despite Jones starting the game (22% snap share). Be ahead of the curve on waivers, scooping him up.

Justin Jefferson had a solid outing, catching six of his 14 targets for 92 yards (50% Target share, 214 air yards), averaging 15.3 yards per reception. Jordan Addison hauled in three of his eight targets (28% Target share, 153 air yards) for 36 yards, while tight end Johnny Mundt added 31 yards on two catches from 2 targets.

Jones and Myles Gaskin contributed with one reception each, and Chandler added two catches for 9 yards.

Minnesota has a Week 6 bye. If you are hurting at tight end (aren’t we all), testing the trade market/free agency waivers on T.J. Hockenson might make sense.

After the bye week, Minnesota plays at IND, vs. ARI, @ BUF, @ LAR, and vs. LV. This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend.

Note that Addison’s hearing was on October 7th, stemming from his off-field incident earlier this offseason. However, as of yesterday, the arraignment and plea hearing for Addison, stemming from two misdemeanor charges in July for DUI, is now scheduled for Dec. 3, according to Superior Court of California online records per ESPN’s Kevin Seifert.
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Cleveland Browns

Hold Jerome Ford | Drop D’Onta Foreman | Buy Amari Cooper

The Cleveland Browns were led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who completed 15 of 28 passes for 125 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Watson had a completion rate of 53.6% and a passer rating of 77.2, averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. Jameis Winston made a brief appearance, completing his lone pass for 16 yards, giving him a perfect 100% completion rate and a 118.8 passer rating.

In the rushing game, Jerome Ford was the leading rusher, carrying the ball nine times for 47 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards. But his snaps were down from his usual workload, with just a 58% snap share.

D’Onta Foreman also contributed with nine carries for 44 yards, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, including a long run of 25 yards. Foreman carried the ball twice in the red zone but did not score on a 34% snap share.

Deshaun Watson rushed three times for 14 yards, while Pierre Strong had one carry for 2 yards.

Foreman started this game and led the team in carries in the first half. Ford didn’t see his first carry until the second quarter, although he saw targets before then.

This backfield usage is as back and forth as it gets. One week, it’s Ford; the next week, it’s Foreman, etc. With Nick Chubb returning, the only Browns RB to roster is Ford, given his pass-catching.

Amari Cooper was the Browns’ most targeted receiver, seeing 10 targets and catching four passes for 60 yards, with an average of 15 yards per reception and a long catch of 19 yards. He had another 19-yard catch nullified because of a penalty. Cooper is the king of air yards – 183 in Week 5 – which resulted in lackluster production. His opportunity in this offense is off the charts. With favorable matchups coming up, I still like Cooper as a dirt-cheap buy/hold. Yes, he busts, but his booms are week-winning. The Browns WR leads the NFL in air yards (653). He is also a player that could be traded to a WR-needy team, given the way his contract is structured.

Tight end Jordan Akins was targeted three times, catching all three passes for 22 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per catch, with a long reception of 10 yards and a touchdown reception. He is the desperation play among TEs if Njoku is out.

D’Onta Foreman had one target and made the most of it, catching a 16-yard pass with 18 yards after the catch. Jerry Jeudy also caught one pass for 16 yards on three targets. David Njoku contributed with one reception for 14 yards on three targets, while Elijah Moore was targeted four times, catching three passes for 4 yards. Njoku caught another pass that was called back for interference.

The Browns tight end did not return to his full-time role, although it was announced before the game that he would be limited. Njoku played 42% of the snaps. That will likely increase in Week 6, but it depends on Njoku’s health as he deals with a new knee injury. Woof.

Jerome Ford (three targets) and Pierre Strong (one target) did not contribute much in the passing game, with Ford catching three passes for two yards.

Amari Cooper‘s Target share was 35.7% (10 of 28 targets), leading the Browns’ receiving corps. Akins caught Deshaun Watson‘s sole passing touchdown.

It’s been back-to-back weeks that the Commanders’ defense has played well against the pass. Not nothing.

It’s also telling that this Browns passing game couldn’t get it done in a plus matchup. The pass protection issues will not go away until this OL gets fully healthy (it remains to be seen if that will ever happen).

Per Next Gen Stats, the Commanders had eight defenders record multiple pressures, led by Dorance Armstrong, who finished with six pressures and a sack on 25 pass rushes (24.0%). The Commanders generated pressure on 43.6% of dropbacks, their highest-pressure rate in a game this season; they totaled seven sacks after totaling eight combined sacks in Weeks 1-4.

Cleveland will play the Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers in the next four weeks before they go on bye. The matchups remain great for the passing game, but Watson cannot be trusted in any capacity to help his receivers deliver.

The defense is reeling after they lost CB Denzel Ward to a hamstring injury.
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Washington Commanders

Buy Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler | Add Jeremy McNichols, Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz

The Washington Commanders’ offense was led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who completed 14 of 25 passes for 238 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Daniels averaged 9.5 yards per attempt with a completion percentage of 56% and a passer rating of 85.1.

Jayden Daniels was also a force in the running game, leading the team with 11 rushes for 82 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, and a long run of 34 yards. Running back Austin Ekeler contributed significantly, rushing six times for 67 yards, including an impressive 50-yard run, with an average of 11.2 yards per carry. Ekeler had three red zone carries.

Jeremy McNichols added seven rushes for 44 yards. At the same time, Brian Robinson carried the ball seven times but managed just 18 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry after missing most of this week with a knee injury. Robinson Jr. logged three red zone carries, scoring two touchdowns, and had no red zone targets.

McNichols had one carry in the first half. He scored in the third quarter to put the Commanders up 31-6. McNichols recorded three red zone carries and scored one touchdown with no targets.

Robinson saw his last carry in the second quarter. I wouldn’t be concerned about this backfield becoming a three-headed committee. However, as I stated last week, Ekeler is a BUY. He has looked fantastic this season and is coming off a 49% backfield high snap share. If anything, Robinson would be a “short-term” sell ahead of a tough matchup against the Ravens. And even though he played, there’s still a chance he is not 100% given his knee injury.

The receiving corps was led by Terry McLaurin, who saw eight targets and caught four passes for 112 yards, averaging 28 yards per reception, with a long catch of 66 yards and 30 yards after the catch. Dyami Brown was targeted twice, catching both passes for 57 yards, including a long reception of 41 yards, averaging 28.5 yards per catch with a touchdown reception. Austin Ekeler was also involved in the passing game, catching both of his targets for 15 yards.

Luke McCaffrey caught two of three targets for 19 yards, while tight end Zach Ertz caught just two of his eight targets (30% Target share) for 10 yards. Ertz was targeted four times in the red zone but only caught one pass, with no touchdowns.

LMC saw a season-high in snaps and routes run (matching Week 2).

Ertz left a boatload of production on the table (70 air yards), but the usage is positive for him to be a streaming tight end option in a plus-matchup versus the Ravens in Week 6.

Olamide Zaccheaus was targeted thrice, with Zaccheaus catching one pass for 10 yards. Disappointingly, he didn’t have a larger role, given Noah Brown was inactive. He and Dyami Brown split as the WR3.

Jayden Daniels spread the ball around, but Terry McLaurin was the focal point in the passing game, with a Target share of 32% (8 of 25 targets) and 171 air yards.

The Commanders will play the Ravens next in a projected shootout. From Weeks 7 to 8, it’s Carolina and Chicago.
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New England Patriots

Add Ja’Lynn Polk | Price Check Rhamondre Stevenson

The New England Patriots struggled in the passing game under Jacoby Brissett, who completed 18 of 34 passes for 160 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. Brissett had a completion percentage of 52.9%, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, and posted a quarterback rating of 65.8.

On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson was the lead rusher with 12 carries for 89 yards, including a long run of 33 yards and one rushing touchdown. Antonio Gibson contributed six rushes for 52 yards, with a long of 24, while Brissett added a single rush for 10 yards.

Head coach Jerod Mayo was a man of his word, benching Stevenson for the first drive with Gibson drawing the start. It didn’t take long for Mondre to start rumbling shortly after. Stevenson had 3 yards on his four catches (four targets). Gibson had one target.

Still, the final snap count was 50/50, with each RB playing 28 snaps (47%).

In the passing game, DeMario Douglas was the most targeted receiver, with nine targets, hauling in six catches for 59 yards, with an average of 9.8 yards per reception and 31 yards after the catch. Kayshon Boutte had two targets and caught both for 34 yards, including a long catch of 21 yards. Boutte stepped in as the WR2, seeing a season-high in playing time.

Hunter Henry was targeted four times, catching two passes for 32 yards, averaging 16 yards per reception with a long of 25 yards. Henry had two red zone targets, catching one, but did not find the end zone. He ranks second in the NFL in most red-zone targets (five) among TEs with a touchdown. Henry plays nearly every single snap but isn’t good enough to rise above the horrible offensive situation.

Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk was targeted six times (20% Target share) and caught one pass for 13 yards. Polk was HOSED on a fourth-quarter touchdown that would have given the Patriots the go-ahead score. He also led the team in air yards for the second straight week.

Polk continues to string together impressive outings that aren’t necessarily being reflected in the box score. The offense situation is bad, but Polk is flashing his talent. Keep him stashed in deeper formats with bye weeks approaching. He played 100% of the snaps for the Patriots in Week 5. For the rest of the season, Polk is the Patriots WR to own (FWTW).

Tight end Austin Hooper was targeted three times, catching one pass for nine yards. Hooper also had two red zone targets without a catch or a touchdown.

Kendrick Bourne also returned from injury but only made one catch for six yards-27% snap share.

The Patriots took on a bad Miami Dolphins team in Week 5, but it’s followed up by the Texans, Jaguars, and Jets again in Week 8. If you want out of the Patriots (who doesn’t), the move would be to sell high now, specifically on Stevenson. His situation is so fragile, and it can be tough to rely on. If Stevenson were seeing a Kyren Williams-level workload, he’d be fine. But New England’s constant effort to entertain the idea of Gibson is tough.

If you are an RB on a bad offense, you need to see a ton of volume. I’m not confident that Stevenson will get back up to an elite-level snap usage from earlier this season as long as Gibson is healthy.

Then again, if you can sell RB, who has an even worse chance of seeing that level of workload, that’s a move to make for Stevenson. Keep in mind that Stevenson did suffer a calf injury in the fourth quarter after taking a helmet to the leg. The Patriots ran 12 plays after that on offense. Stevenson only came back for one of those 12 snaps. So, it really wasn’t a true 50/50 split. Up to that point before the injury, the snap share split was 56% for Stevenson.
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Miami Dolphins

Buy Dolphins | Add Jaylen Wright | Sell Raheem Mostert

The Miami Dolphins’ offense, led by quarterback Tyler Huntley, had a mixed performance. Huntley completed 18 of 31 passes for 194 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a completion percentage of 58.1% and averaged 6.3 yards per attempt.

In the running game, rookie Jaylen Wright was the most productive rusher, carrying the ball 13 times for 86 yards, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 17 yards. Wright logged two red zone carries. He finished Week 5 as PFF’s highest-graded rusher.

Raheem Mostert returned to the lineup and had 19 carries for 80 yards, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, while De’Von Achane contributed three carries for 18 yards, with a long run of 12 yards. Huntley added three carries for seven yards. Achane left the game early with a concussion. Mostert led the first half with 10 carries for 39 yards. The snap share split was Mostert leading the charge at 56%, followed by Wright at 32%. This was because Mostert was running more routes (18 versus 8). But Mostert has never traditionally been the preferred receiver for Mike McDaniel, so it was probably more based on the injury to Achane.

Per Next Gen Stats, Miami ran the ball effectively with a power run game powered by fullback Alec Ingold.

The Dolphins totaled 160 rushing yards across 31 designed runs (5.2 YPC) with Alec Ingold on the field in Week 5, compared to just 26 yards across eight carries with Ingold off the field (3.3 YPC).

While Jaylen Wright (86) and Raheem Mostert (80) led the team in rushing yards, Ingold scored the only Dolphins rushing touchdown of the day on a 3-yard red zone carry in the fourth quarter. Ingold tied his career-high with 39 snaps in Week 5, as the Dolphins utilized 21 personnel on a season-high 36 snaps (48.0%).

In the receiving game, Tyreek Hill was the top target with nine (29% Target share), catching six passes for 69 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception, with a long of 21 yards and 18 yards after the catch. Hill was targeted two times in the red zone but had no catches or touchdowns. He came close to a TD but was ruled out of bounds.

Tight end Jonnu Smith had eight targets, hauling in five passes for 62 yards, including a long of 17 yards, with 31 yards after the catch. Jaylen Waddle was targeted eight times, catching four passes for 46 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per catch, with a long of 20 yards and 4 yards after the catch.

Watching this game live, Waddle definitely saw all the early opportunities. Hill caught Christian Gonzalez‘s shadow coverage. Per Next Gen Stats, Gonzalez lined up against Hill on 21 of 29 routes (72.4%) in Week 5, allowing two receptions for 34 yards on five targets as the nearest defender.

Gonzalez was targeted nine total times in Week 5, the 2nd-most in a game in his career, allowing three receptions for 45 yards, including one interception. Entering the Sunday afternoon slate, Gonzalez has allowed -3.3 receptions over expected, 6th-fewest among cornerbacks.

Raheem Mostert contributed in the passing game as well, catching two targets for 18 yards with a long of 10 yards. Odell Beckham Jr. was targeted twice but did not record a catch, while Achane had one reception for negative yards.

There will likely be a massive rush to waiver for Wright after his big game, but Miami is on a bye week in Week 6. I would presume that Achane will clear the concussion protocol with extra time. However, remember that Wright saw carries in this game before Achane exited. He also had a massive 35-yard gain taken away due to a holding call. Given both Mostert’s and Achane’s injury track records in the long term, I want to stash Wright on my bench for maximum upside. He may be the most productive RB for the Dolphins for the rest of the season. The rookie just had a breakout game that likely isn’t garnering the attention it truly deserves.

If you can sell Mostert as the presumed “starter” after Achane’s injury… I would do so.

Overall, the move with the Dolphins hasn’t changed. Buy them behind the thesis that Tua Tagovailoa will return in Week 8. In Week 7, they will play at the Colts.

Buying low on Dolphins is not what you do with the short term in mind. It’s 100% about the season’s long haul and second half.
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Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Brian Thomas Jr. & Tank Bigsby | Sell Christian Kirk | Hold/Buy Travis Etienne Jr.

The Jacksonville Jaguars, led by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, put up an impressive offensive performance. Lawrence completed 28 of 34 passes for 371 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He finished with a completion percentage of 82.4% and averaged 10.9 yards per attempt, giving him a quarterback rating of 119.5.

In the ground game, Tank Bigsby carried the load with 13 rushes for 101 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry, including a long run of 65 yards with two touchdowns. Bigsby carried the ball three times in the red zone, scoring one touchdown.

Travis Etienne Jr. was less involved, rushing just six times for 17 yards, with a long run of four yards. Lawrence also chipped in with two rushes for 4 yards.

The snaps were 40% for Bigsby and 38% for Etienne-season-high and season-low, respectively. In the first-half split, there were four carries each for minimal yardage.

Through the air, rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was the standout performer, catching five of eight targets for 122 yards and one touchdown, averaging 24.4 yards per reception with a long of 85 yards and 70 yards after the catch. Certified stud. Always a buy.

Christian Kirk added four receptions on four targets (12% Target share) for 88 yards, including a long reception of 61 yards. But his routes fell to a season-low (68%). Kirk’s no longer the target hog in this offense, and it won’t improve if and when Engram returns.

Travis Etienne Jr. was also involved in the passing game, catching six of seven targets (21% Target share) for 43 yards, averaging 7.2 yards per reception, including 59 yards after the catch. Gabe Davis contributed three catches on four targets for 38 yards, including a long catch of 21 yards.

Bigsby added on a catch for 28 yards on a screenplay.

We are starting to see more and more of this RB committee form in Jacksonville, with Bigsby as the lead rusher and Etienne as the main pass-catcher. ETN ran the most routes on the offense, while D’Ernest Johson (22% snap share) ran more routes than Bigsby. Johnson had three targets of his own.

On the surface, viewing this situation as buying Tank Bigsby (as Chris Welsh correctly called on the podcast last week) and selling Travis Etienne is simple.

And although I agree about still wanting Bigsby, Etienne isn’t going entirely away. He’s got the pass-catching role in this offense. And although Bigsby has flashed with the big runs, Etienne has been more than serviceable. Ninth overall in rushing success rate (56.6%). This isn’t Bigsby is great, Etienne sucks conversation. It’s Bigsby great. Buy Bigsby and hold (or even buy low) Etienne.

It was reported after the Jaguars game that Etienne’s lack of snaps resulted from a shoulder injury. Head coach Doug Pederson said in response to whether Bigsby will see increased carries over Etienne per Jaguarswire:

“No. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game. That’s just the way games go. Happy for Tank. Great for the offensive line, obviously, in some of those situations there. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game today, though.”

But as FantasyPros Chris Welsh pointed out in the Buy Low Sell High Tuesday Trade podcast, you have to take Pederson’s comments with a grain of salt. This is why the @Coachspeakindex exists. Use it. If anything, send Pederson’s comments adjacent to your Bigsby trade offers.

#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on whether Tank Bigsby will replace Travis Etienne atop the depth chart:

“No, not at all. Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game, that’s just the way games go.”

Pederson has a 35% reliability rating on depth chart coachspeak pic.twitter.com/GALzbYRd4C

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 6, 2024

Before these comments surfaced in my timeline, I was debating in my mind whether or not Bigsby was bearing striking resemblance to becoming this year’s Kyren Williams. The Coachspeakindex has me back on the Bigsby hype train.

Tight end Brenton Strange caught all four of his targets for 24 yards and one touchdown. He resumed his full-time role with Evan Engram, still ailing from his hamstring injury.

The Jags’ schedule is improving, which will help this offense stay on track. @ CHI, vs. NE, vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, and @ DET before a Week 12 bye week. Note that their next two games will be played in London.
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Indianapolis Colts

Sell Michael Pittman Jr. | Hold Josh Downs & Trey Sermon

The Indianapolis Colts offense was led by Joe Flacco, who completed 33 of 44 passes for 359 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, posting an impressive completion percentage of 75% and a quarterback rating of 121.8. Alec Pierce had a massive day in the receiving game, catching all three of his targets for 134 yards and one touchdown, with a long catch of 65 yards and 38 yards after the catch.

Josh Downs was heavily targeted with 12 looks (27% Target share), catching nine for 69 yards. Downs caught both of his two red zone targets but did not score. Downs continues to be hyper-targeted on a per route run basis from the slot. His 37% target rate per route run ranks second among all WRs this season. This has been true regardless of the Colts’ quarterback. Downs is a strong hold.

Adonai Mitchell was also involved, securing 4 of 7 targets for 38 yards, while Mo Alie-Cox caught 2 of 4 targets for 37 yards, averaging 18.5 yards per reception. The rookie’s high-end Target share is crazy, considering he only ran 11 routes … 64% target rate. He ran 31 fewer routes than Pittman, and they posted almost identical target shares. Yikes.

Alie-Cox had three red zone targets, hauling in one of those passes for a touchdown. However, it was still very much a TE committee that featured four different players. Do not chase any Colts tight end off the waiver wire.

Michael Pittman Jr. contributed with five catches for 37 yards on eight targets, including a 27-yard-long reception and an early TD reception. Pittman Jr. had two red zone targets, catching one and scoring a touchdown. I was on the fence as Pittman to buy/sell last week, but after this past week, he entered the must-sell conversation. Anthony Richardson will return at some point, and the targets are being spread out between these other Colts’ WRs.

In the rushing department, Trey Sermon led with 10 carries for 38 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry with a touchdown, while Tyler Goodson added 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Sermon recorded five red zone carries and two red zone targets. He had four carries inside the 5-yard line while seeing a 59% snap share. Goodson played 41% of the snaps without Jonathan Taylor. They split the routes.

Flacco also contributed with three rushes for 22 yards.

Sermon also caught all six of his targets for 25 yards. Tight end Mo Alie-Cox scored on one of his four targets.

This Week 5 at Jacksonville was promising, but it gets grim again with the Titans. The Dolphins and the Texans represent solid spots for more fantasy production in Weeks 7-8. But the fantasy “goodness” of the Colts is based on which quarterback they have under center.

Note that per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Indianapolis is tied for the No.32-ranked schedule for quarterbacks for the rest of the season.

The Colts lost guard Will Fries to a leg injury.
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Buffalo Bills

Drop Ray Davis | Buy James Cook & Khalil Shakir

The Buffalo Bills struggled offensively in this matchup, with quarterback Josh Allen completing just nine of 30 passes for 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Allen had a tough day through the air, finishing with a 56.4 passer rating and averaging 4.4 yards per attempt. However, he contributed significantly on the ground with 54 rushing yards on four attempts, including a long run of 19 yards.

James Cook led the backfield, carrying the ball 20 times (second-most in his career) for 82 yards, averaging 4.1 yards per carry, with a long run of 12 yards and one touchdown. Ty Johnson added 15 yards on three carries, but the Bills struggled to consistently succeed in the running game beyond Allen and Cook. Johnson was next in line behind Cook, suggesting Ray Davis could probably be dropped.

Cook had five red zone carries, scoring one touchdown and one red zone target but did not score a receiving touchdown.

Rookie Keon Coleman led the receiving corps, catching one pass on five targets for a 49-yard touchdown. This came after he had a pass hit him in the helmet.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid caught two of six targets (20% Target share) for 34 yards, with a long catch of 21 yards. Usage was strong – 74% route participation – as he led the Bills in routes run.

Mack Hollins caught two of his six targets for 27 yards, and James Cook contributed 17 receiving yards on two catches from three targets. Hollins turned 128 air yards into next to nothing.

Curtis Samuel failed to take advantage of Khalil Shakir‘s absence, with only one catch for no gain on four targets. Allen definitely missed Shakir as his primary underneath and slot option.

Per Next Gen Stats, Allen targeted downfield often with an average of 12.5 air yards per attempt, his most since 2023.

He completed just 1 of 15 passes of 10+ air yards, the lowest completion percentage on such passes (6.7%) in Allen’s career (min. five such dropbacks).

Buffalo plays the Jets in Week 6, followed by the Titans, Seahawks, and Dolphins.
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Houston Texans

Buy Tank Dell | Add Xavier Hutchinson, Dalton Schultz & Dare Ogunbowale | Drop Cam Akers

The Houston Texans, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, put together a solid offensive performance despite a turnover. Stroud completed 28 of 38 passes for 331 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a quarterback rating of 97.6. Stroud also added 27 rushing yards on three attempts, including a long run of 13 yards.

In the receiving game, Stefon Diggs was Stroud’s go-to target, catching six of eight targets for 82 yards (23% Target share), with 43 yards after the catch. Nico Collins was also highly effective, catching two of four targets for 78 yards, including a massive 67-yard touchdown. Tank Dell chipped in with four catches on four targets (11% Target share) for 38 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per reception.

The biggest story of this game was Collins leaving with a hamstring injury. Recall he was on the injury report with a hammy two weeks ago. He has been labeled week-to-week, suggesting that he is going to miss multiple games. Diggs has to be held, and Dell’s stock should rise.

Dalton Schultz provided a consistent presence at tight end, catching four of six targets (17% Target share) for 34 yards, and Xavier Hutchinson was involved as well, catching two of three targets for 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per catch. Both guys should be more involved moving forward in Collins’ absence. Hutchinson specifically will see his usage from a routes perspective spike the most, filling in as Collins’ direct backup.

On the ground, Cam Akers led the rushing attack with nine carries for 42 yards and one touchdown, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

Dare Ogunbowale had the bulk of the work with 15 carries for 30 yards but struggled with an average of just 2.0 yards per carry. Dare was also heavily involved as a receiver with seven targets (20% Target share), going six for 57. He led the backfield in routes run at an impressive 57% and dominated the snaps with a 68% snap share to Akers’ 22% snap share. Make no mistake that Ogunbowale was the Texans’ RB1 in this contest. He started.

Will Joe Mixon and/or Dameon Pierce return in Week 6? Who knows. Add Ogunbowale in the meantime, and drop Akers.

The Texans take on the Patriots next, followed by the Packers, Colts, Jets, and Lions. This sets up as a massive Dell week given New England will try to put their best CB, Christian Gonzalez, on Diggs.
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Cincinnati Bengals

Sell Zack Moss & Mike Gesicki | Buy Chase Brown | Add Erick All Jr.

In a dominant offensive performance, Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow completed 30 of 39 passes for 392 yards, throwing a career-high five touchdowns and one interception. He finished with a passer rating of 137.0, averaging an impressive 10.1 yards per attempt. Burrow also contributed with two rushes for one yard.

On the ground, Chase Brown led the rushing attack with 12 carries for 46 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 16 yards. Zack Moss added nine carries for 24 yards, averaging 2.7 yards per carry before exiting with an injury (although he did return).

Moss had three red zone carries but did not score or record any red zone targets. Moss had two carries inside the 5-yard line.

Brown recorded one red zone carry and two red zone targets.

Moss saw four targets to Brown’s three. Brown also caught a receiving touchdown. But the usage was very much in favor of Brown before the injury. First half carries, five for Brown and two for Moss.

Moss’s final snap share at 67% does not tell the story compared to Brown’s 33%. The massive snap discrepancy is based on Moss taking on the pass-protection repetitions and in obvious rush plays in the second half. The touches for Brown (15) over Moss (12) are more important to recognize. Before OT, it was another dead-even split between the two backs for the second straight week.

It’s been the same old song and dance for me all year, and I will continue to preach it. Buy Chase Brown (second in the NFL in rushing success rate) and sell Zack Moss.

Ja’Marr Chase was the standout receiver, catching 10 of 12 targets (31% Target share) for 193 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 19.3 yards per reception, with a long catch of 70 yards and 96 yards after the catch. Tee Higgins also had a productive day, catching seven of 14 targets (36% Target share) for 83 yards and two touchdowns, with a long of 17 yards and 21 yards after the catch. Higgins had two red zone targets, catching both and converting them into two touchdowns.

Andrei Iosivas caught one of two targets for 39 yards, averaging 19.5 yards per reception.

Tight ends Mike Gesicki (two for 31) and Erik All (two for 10) weren’t featured. I know it was disappointing for All, but his usage was still encouraging. He played more snaps than Mike Gesicki at 52%, even if he ran fewer routes. Don’t write off the rookie tight end just yet. The Bengals love him as a receiver and blocker. His time will come.

Matchups are the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders as their next slate of opponents.
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Baltimore Ravens

Sell/Drop Mark Andrews | Buy Isaiah Likely

In a stellar outing for the Baltimore Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson led the offense, completing 26 of 42 passes for 348 yards and throwing four touchdowns with no interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 119.9, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. On the ground, Jackson added 55 rushing yards on 12 attempts, including a long run of 18 yards.

Derrick Henry was the lead rusher, carrying the ball 15 times for 92 yards and one touchdown, averaging 6.1 yards per carry, with a long of 51 yards that essentially sealed victory for the Ravens in OT. Justice Hill added 17 rushing yards on five carries (two targets).

Zay Flowers was the top receiver, catching 7 of 12 targets for 111 yards and one touchdown, averaging 15.9 yards per reception, with a long catch of 26 yards and 41 yards after the catch. The second-year WR totaled 141 air yards on a 29% Target share.

Tight end Charlie Kolar had a breakout game (yes, not Mark Andrews), hauling in all three of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown, averaging 21.3 yards per reception, including a long of 55 yards and 33 yards after the catch.

Rashod Bateman added four catches for 58 yards, while tight end Mark Andrews had 55 yards on four catches (five targets).

Isaiah Likely was the main target in the red zone, with two touchdowns on three catches for 13 yards (three targets). Likely was perfect in the red zone with two catches on two targets, converting both into touchdowns while running a route on 64% of the dropbacks.

Likely is the best tight end on the Ravens for the rest of the season. Andrews is nothing more than a streamer. It’s over. I tried to make excuses for him the last two weeks based on the game script, but his usage this week in a shootout can’t be forgiven in any capacity. 34% route participation. 55% snap share. Vomit-inducing.

I tried to hold out hope that Andrews could turn it around, but that won’t be possible unless the Ravens change his role. Given his decent game, maybe it’s not too late to flip him for something. My TE1 in the offseason will not come to fruition-massive L for me.

Rashod Bateman drew eight targets, catching four for 58 yards and one touchdown. Second in routes run among Ravens WRs.

Baltimore will face the Commanders next, followed by the Buccaneers and Browns.
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Carolina Panthers

Buy Diontae Johnson & Jonathon Brooks | Hold Chuba Hubbard

The Carolina Panthers had a down game led by veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, who completed 18 of 28 passes for 136 yards with one touchdown and one interception, resulting in a 61.0 passer rating. Bryce Young also saw limited action.

On the ground, Chuba Hubbard was the standout, carrying the ball 13 times for 97 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, including a long run of 38 yards on a 65% snap share. Bryce Young added 8 rushing yards on one carry, while Miles Sanders had six yards on two attempts. Hubbard had four targets and four catches for -2 yards.

In the receiving game, Holy Cross product rookie Jalen Coker was the leading receiver with four receptions on four targets for 68 yards, averaging 17 yards per catch, with 31 yards coming after the catch. He took over as the No. 3 WR and had two targets in the final drive during garbage time.

Jonathan Mingo caught two passes on five targets for 37 yards, averaging 18.5 yards per reception. Miles Sanders contributed in the air with two catches for 27 yards.

Diontae Johnson added three catches for 23 yards on a team-high six targets (18% Target share). Even after the bad game, he still leads all WRs in red-zone targets (10). Note that Johnson still tallied a 28% Target share from Dalton before he left the game. He was my buy high last week, and now he’s a great buy low.

Other contributors included David Moore, with 13 yards on three targets, while Ja’Tavion Sanders had three receptions for 13 yards on five targets. Sanders played a very strong role – 73% route participation – which was a season-high.

Xavier Legette and Tommy Tremble each had one reception for minimal yardage. Legette suffered a shoulder injury and has been listed as day-to-day. He’s not expected to miss games. Tremble suffered a concussion, which thrust Sanders into the full-time TE1 role.

Carolina will face the Falcons in Week 6, followed by the Commanders and Broncos.

They suffered more injuries on their OL in Week 5, losing center Austin Corbett and offensive tackle Taylor Moton.
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Chicago Bears

Buy Rome Odunze | Price Check D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Roschon Johnson

The Chicago Bears had an impressive offensive outing, led by quarterback Caleb Williams. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 304 yards and threw two touchdowns with no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 126.2 and averaging 10.5 yards per attempt. On the ground, Williams also contributed five rushes for 34 yards, including a long run of 11 yards. He scrambled for a touchdown that was called back on a penalty.

Running back D’Andre Swift was the workhorse on the ground, carrying the ball 21 times for 73 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 18 yards and one touchdown. Swift played 67% of the snaps, higher than his rate from Week 4 (63%).

Roschon Johnson added 25 yards on 10 carries and two TDs. Johnson continues to make his presence found around the goal line with two TDs from inside the 1-yard line.

Swift had the first TD from the 1-yard line wiped away by penalty and then was vultured by RJ two plays later in the second quarter. All in all, Swift had nine red zone carries, scoring one touchdown but was not targeted in the red zone. He had four carries inside the 5-yard line.

There’s still a risk that Swift will get vultured from time to time in the red zone by Johnson. And the plus-matchups are gone. The Jaguars have a solid run defense and are in stark contrast to the Panthers/Rams in the last two weeks. I’d sell high after Swift’s back-to-back top-five finishes with his bye week also approaching. However, if you’d rather just ride the wave, Swift has the Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers after the bye week-a solid string of matchups.

Through the air, D.J. Moore was the top target, catching five of eight targets (28% Target share) for 105 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 21 yards per reception, with a long of 34 yards and 45 yards after the catch.

Per Next Gen Stats, Moore went over the 100-yard mark for the first time in 2024, hauling in five of seven targets for 105 yards and two touchdowns (+24 receiving yards over expected). All 105 of Moore’s receiving yards came against zone coverage, tied for his 4th-most yards against zone in a game in his career.

The Jaguars lead the NFL in man coverage snaps this season. Moore is averaging 1.26 yards per route against man coverage this season, with five catches for 49 yards on nine targets.

Moore’s production tends to fluctuate, so selling off the big game with the Jaguars on deck would be a good move.

Keenan Allen leads the Bears in Target share (28%) against man coverage this season. I’m not sure I can go back to him as a sneaky buy again in Week 6, but his value has to be close to rock bottom at this point.

Tight end Cole Kmet caught three of four targets for 57 yards, while D’Andre Swift contributed in the passing game with two receptions for 47 yards, including an impressive 23.5 yards per catch and a long of 42 yards.

Other contributors included wide receiver Rome Odunze, with five catches for 40 yards (six targets, 21% Target share), and Keenan Allen, who had three catches for 33 yards (six targets). Allen also had a target on a two-point conversion attempt. Odunze was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one pass without a touchdown. Odunze hasn’t quite blossomed like the other rookie WRs. But he has had his moments. I think he is a sneaky buy-low with a shine on other Bears players like Swift and Moore. He is tied with Moore with a 30%-plus air yard share on the Bears this season.

Tight end Gerald Everett added 22 yards on two receptions. OG Teven Jenkins exited Sunday’s game against the Panthers with an injury.

The Bears will face the Jaguars in Week 6 until their Week 7 bye week. After that, they will play the Commanders, Cardinals, Patriots, and Packers after the bye week. A solid string of matchups.

Also, stash Khalil Herbert. He’s not playing anymore. I think he could get traded. The Raiders could sure use another RB …
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Seattle Seahawks

Buy DK Metcalf & Kenneth Walker | Hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba

In the Seattle Seahawks game, Geno Smith completed 28 of 40 passes for 284 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, achieving a 70% completion rate and a passer rating of 98.3. Smith also led the team in rushing, gaining 72 yards on four carries, averaging an impressive 18 yards per carry, including a long run of 32 yards.

Kenneth Walker III added just 19 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long of just seven yards. Zach Charbonnet chipped in with 11 rushing yards on two carries, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, with a long of nine yards.

Tyler Lockett was the top receiver for Seattle, catching six of his seven targets for 75 yards, averaging 18.8 yards per reception, with a long catch of 33 yards and 15 yards after the catch (YAC).

Kenneth Walker III also contributed significantly in the passing game, catching all seven of his eight targets for 57 receiving yards (20% Target share). Walker’s rushing line and final box score weren’t great, but his receiving usage and snap share (67%) are that of a workhorse running back. The constant receiving usage is divine.

DK Metcalf caught four of his seven targets for 55 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per reception, with a long of 22 yards. He has a 22% Target share this season.

Per Next Gen Stats, Giants CB Banks lined up opposite DK Metcalf on 35 of his 47 routes (74.5%), limiting him to two catches on four targets for 24 yards. Metcalf faced off coverage on 89.4% of his routes, the 3rd-highest mark in a game in Metcalf’s career.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught four of his seven targets for 31 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per reception, with Smith’s lone touchdown pass. Smith-Njigba had three red zone targets, hauling in two catches and scoring one touchdown.

Tyler Lockett isn’t going to be the team’s leading receiver very often. Buy low on the Seattle WRs that didn’t perform in Week 5.

Noah Fant caught three of three targets for 19 yards. Zach Charbonnet added 19 receiving yards on three catches and five targets on a 37% snap rate.

Seattle has a quick turnaround this week against the 49ers at home Thursday night. Then they will face Atlanta, Buffalo, and Los Angeles (Rams) before their bye week-a great overall schedule for the offense and its fantasy weapons. Invest in the Seahawks’ passing game, which is a +10% pass rate over expectation over the last two weeks.
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New York Giants

Hold Malik Nabers | Add Darius Slayton & Wan’Dale Robinson | Add Tyrone Tracy Jr. & Daniel Jones

In the New York Giants’ latest game, Daniel Jones completed 23 of 34 passes for 257 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a completion rate of 67.6% and a passer rating of 109.6. Jones also contributed 38 rushing yards on 11 carries, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, with his longest run going for 11 yards.

Rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. started and led the Giants’ rushing attack with 18 carries for 129 yards, averaging an impressive 7.2 yards per carry, including a long run of 27 yards on a 62% snap share. Eric Gray added four carries for four yards, while Wan’Dale Robinson rushed once for 4 yards. Devin Singletary missed this game with an injury. Gray had three red zone carries but also lost a fumble. He had three carries inside the 5-yard line.

Tracy Jr. recorded two red zone carries without any touchdowns.

Per Next Gen Stats, Tracy Jr. carried the ball 18 times for 129 yards, generating positive EPA on 8 of those carries (44.4% success rate).

Tracy Jr. generated +47 rushing yards over expected, the most by a Giants running back since Week 11, 2023 (Saquon Barkley, +48).

Darius Slayton was the top target in the passing game, catching eight of his 11 targets (35% Target share) for 122 yards, including a 41-yard reception and a touchdown. He averaged 15.3 yards per catch and added 26 yards after the catch (YAC) while leading New York in routes run and air yards (121). Eric Gray caught all 3 of his four targets for 50 receiving yards, averaging 16.7 yards per reception with a 19-yard long catch.

Tight end Theo Johnson was also productive, catching 5 of 5 targets for 48 yards, averaging 9.6 yards per reception, with a long of 22 yards. Wan’Dale Robinson contributed six catches on nine targets for 36 yards and one touchdown, while Tracy Jr. caught one of his two targets for 1 yard. Robinson was targeted twice in the red zone, catching one pass and scoring a touchdown.

Target shares for this game were led by Darius Slayton (32.3%), followed by Robinson’s six targets (17.6%), Ty Johnson with five targets (14.7%), and Eric Gray receiving four targets (11.7%).

New York will host Cincinnati in Week 6. If there is no Nabers or Singletary, then Robinson, Slayton, and Tracy will be more than viable options to use in Week 6.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks. Add Daniel Jones is you need a quarterback streamer.
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Green Bay Packers

Hold Tucker Kraft & Dontayvion Wicks | Buy Josh Jacobs

Jordan Love completed 15 of 26 passes for 224 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. His completion rate was 57.7%, and he posted a passer rating of 95.7, with an average of 8.6 yards per attempt.

Per Next Gen Stats, Love was most productive when facing four rushers or fewer, completing 11 of 15 attempts for 217 yards and both touchdowns. Against the blitz, Love was just 4 of 11 for 7 yards, including his sole interception. After blitzing on 47.1% of Love’s dropbacks in a successful first half, the Rams dialed back the blitz in the second half, sending five or more rushers on just 30.0% of dropbacks.

On the ground, Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack with 19 carries for 73 yards and one touchdown, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Jacobs had two red zone carries, scoring one touchdown. He finally scored! And he had an eye-popping 75% snap rate – surpassing a previous season high of 73%.

Emanuel Wilson added 24 rushing yards on six carries, averaging 4 yards per carry, with a long of 7 yards. Wilson had two red zone carries with no touchdowns. Jacobs out-touched Wilson 20 to 7.

Jayden Reed contributed with two rushes for 19 yards, averaging 9.5 yards per attempt, and Love rushed three times for 10 yards, with a long run of 12 yards.

Tight end Tucker Kraft was the Packers’ leading receiver, catching four of his five targets for 88 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 22 yards per reception, with a long of 66 yards and 70 yards after the catch (YAC). Reed caught four of six targets for 78 yards, averaging 19.5 yards per catch, with a long of 53 yards and 24 YAC. The Packers’ second-year WR led the team in routes run.

Jacobs contributed with a 21-yard reception on his only target, gaining all 21 yards coming after the catch.

Dontayvion Wicks had a team-high seven targets (28% Target share, 43% air yards share, 91 air yards), catching two passes for 20 yards, averaging 5 yards per reception, with a long of 7 yards. Malik Heath caught two of his three targets for 14 yards, and Bo Melton caught one pass for 12 yards on two targets. Wilson also had one target but finished with -9 yards receiving. Heath was a starter in 3-WR sets alongside Wicks/Reed. Melton was the WR4.

Wicks led the Target share with seven targets (28%), Reed with six targets (23.1%), Kraft with five targets (19.2%), and Jacobs with one target (3.8%).

As frustrating as Wicks’ performance was, you can’t tilt drop him.

The Packers will play the Cardinals next. It’s another great matchup for the Packers’ offense to COOK.

Then it’s Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit before a Week 10 bye week.
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Los Angeles Rams

Add Blake Corum & Jordan Whittington | Sell/Hold Kyren Williams | Drop Demarcus Robinson

Matthew Stafford completed 29 of 45 passes for 260 yards with one touchdown and one interception. His completion percentage was 64.4%, and he posted a passer rating of 78.0, with an average of 5.8 yards per attempt.

Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 22 carries for 102 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 30 yards. Rookie Blake Corum added 25 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 5 yards per carry, with a long of 12 yards. Corum logged three red zone carries without scoring to Williams’ four red zone carries. Corum had two carries inside the 5-yard line. Kyren only had one but scored from the one-yard line. Could this be a sign of things to come? Potentially. Corum hasn’t been used at all this season until this point. Going into the bye week, we could see his role expanded, as oftentimes happens with rookies. Again, there is no need to MUST sell Williams away. If anything, I am prioritizing making sure Corum is on my bench if I have Williams as my RB1. Remember that Williams’ fantasy production has been heavily weighed by his seven touchdowns.

He has fewer yards from scrimmage than Bijan Robinson despite ranking second in the NFL in total touches (109) through five weeks.

But I think I’m just bitter about having faded Williams during the draft season. He’s doing exactly what he did last year. And the Rams’ offense could ascend in the second half. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Rams have the best schedule for RBs.

Tutu Atwell also contributed with one rush for seven yards in the red zone.

In the receiving game, Jordan Whittington led with 10 targets, catching seven passes for 89 yards, averaging 12.7 yards per reception, with a long of 31 yards and 55 yards after the catch (YAC). Tutu Atwell was also targeted 10 times, catching six passes for 58 yards, with an average of 9.7 yards per catch, a long of 24 yards, and 18 YAC. He also commanded 133 air yards.

I know dropping Whittington on the bye week is tempting, but I would try not to. He’s the prime beneficiary of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua‘s injuries. If they don’t return as anticipated or get re-injured, you’ll be glad you stashed Whittington for the long haul.

The latest on Kupp: Coach Sean McVay said Monday that a Week 7 return for Kupp (ankle) “would be an ideal target,” but added that was an “optimistic target date” and “by no means is that guaranteed,” Jourdan Rodrigue of The Athletic reports.

Tight end Colby Parkinson caught 7 of his 13 targets for 52 yards, averaging 7.4 yards per catch with a long of 19 yards. Parkinson was targeted two times in the red zone but did not register a catch or a touchdown. He has the most red-zone targets (six) without a TD-no need to hold him through the bye week.

Demarcus Robinson caught three of five targets for 28 yards, averaging 9.3 yards per reception with a long of 16 yards with a touchdown.

Hunter Long caught both of his two targets for 16 yards, with an 8-yard average. Blake Corum was targeted once and caught one pass for 8 yards, and Xavier Smith had two catches on two targets for 2 yards. Kyren Williams was targeted once.

Whittington led with 10 targets (22% Target share), followed by Atwell (22%), Parkinson with 13 targets (29%), and Robinson with five targets (11% Target share). Robinson caught his only red zone target and scored a touchdown.

The Rams will head for a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needs the bye week to get its roster healthy and closer to full strength. Then it’s vs. LV, vs. MIN, @ SEA, vs. MIA, @ NE, vs. PHI, and @ NO.
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San Francisco 49ers

Buy/Hold Jordan Mason | Price Check Brandon Aiyuk | Hold Jauan Jennings | Buy Deebo Samuel | Hold George Kittle

Brock Purdy completed 19 of 35 passes for 244 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 62.1 and an average of seven yards per attempt with a completion percentage of 54.3%.

On the ground, Jordan Mason was the leading rusher with 14 carries for 89 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and a long of 34 yards. Mason had four red zone carries but did not score and lost a fumble.

Purdy contributed 33 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 8.3 yards per carry with a long of 12 yards. Isaac Guerendo added 22 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with a long run of five yards. Guerendo carried the ball twice in the red zone.

Deebo Samuel Sr. had three carries for 9 yards.

In the receiving game, Brandon Aiyuk led the team with 12 targets, catching eight passes for 147 yards, averaging 18.4 yards per reception with a long of 53 yards and 49 yards after the catch (YAC). The 49ers’ WR commanded 143 air yards.

George Kittle was targeted 12 times, catching eight passes for 84 yards, with a touchdown. Kittle had six red zone targets, catching five of them, with a score. After Week 5, he leads all tight ends in red zone targets (nine). He is pacing to be the TE1 overall with his touchdown usage.

Aiyuk is tied with George Pickens among WRs with the most red-zone targets without a red-zone touchdown. Suggests there is much more to come for Aiyuk, but there’s a strong to sell high with Aiyuk being on the favorable side of the Target share in Week 5. It won’t always be the case.

Jauan Jennings caught one of four targets for 13 yards. Jennings had two red zone targets, but he did not record any catches or touchdowns. He also seemed to get banged up during the start of the game with a finger/hand injury, but he seemed okay.

Deebo Samuel had three targets and caught one pass for 11 yards with 14 YAC, while Mason caught his only target for nine yards.

Aiyuk led with 12 targets (34% Target share), followed by Kittle (34%), Jennings with four targets (11%), and Samuel with three targets (8%). As is always the case with the 49ers’ top playmakers, you buy after bad games and sell after great games to maximize your return on investment. Samuel’s four-touch and one-catch game against the Cardinals is the lowest amount of opportunities he’s had in a game since last year against the Cardinals at home.

Per Next Gen Stats, Aiyuk’s 128 yards on such targets are the most by a receiver in a game since Week 7, 2023 (Travis Kelce vs LAC, 154 yards). In Weeks 1-4, Aiyuk caught eight receptions for 132 yards on 13 intermediate targets. Aiyuk caught seven receptions for 135 yards on nine targets against single-high safety coverage.

SF will play Seattle on Thursday night, followed by the Chiefs and Cowboys before a bye week.
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Arizona Cardinals

Add Michael Wilson | Buy James Conner & Trey McBride | Price Check Marvin Harrison Jr.

In the Arizona Cardinals’ game, Kyler Murray completed 19 of 30 passes for 195 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He had a passer rating of 79.2 and averaged 6.5 yards per attempt, completing 63.3% of his passes.

On the ground, James Conner carried the ball 19 times for 86 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with a long run of 14 yards-79% snap share.

Conner is 12th in yards from scrimmage and seventh in touches this season. The Cardinals offense has looked at its best with him in the driver’s seat.

Kyler Murray added 83 rushing yards on seven carries, averaging an impressive 11.9 yards per carry, with a long of 50 yards and one rushing touchdown.

In the receiving game, Michael Wilson was the leading receiver, targeted six times (20% Target share), catching five passes for 78 yards, averaging 15.6 yards per reception. Tight end Trey McBride was targeted nine times (30% Target share), catching six passes for 53 yards. McBride had two red zone targets but did not make any catches or score. The big game has escaped the Cardinals tight end, but it’s coming based on the volume he is seeing.

Marvin Harrison Jr. caught just two of his seven targets (23%) for 36 yards. Wilson/Harrison each saw 95 air yards (43% air yards share). It was another up-and-down outing for Harrison, who sometimes looks out of sync with his quarterback. Now, they connected for a key reception at the end of this contest, but that was the main highlight. MHJ’s yards have dropped for four straight weeks since his Week 2 eruption against the Rams. Put him on the block and see if someone will overpay based on that Week 2 performance. Despite leading Arizona with a 25% Target share this season, Harrison is third in catches (17) behind McBride (20) and Wilson (19).

Murray’s receivers are getting open at the fourth-lowest separation rate this season (3.1), with MHJ ranking DEAD LAST in average separation rate at 1.9 per Next Gen Stats. His 48.6% catch rate ranks 6th-worst.

James Conner added 14 receiving yards on two catches from three targets.

Greg Dortch caught one of his two targets for 7 yards. No. 2 tight end Elijah Higgins scored on one of his two targets. Dortch’s routes fell under the 50% threshold, so he can be dropped.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Cardinals used multiple tight ends on the field on over half of their plays (30 of 57, 52.6%) and were significantly more efficient when using multiple tight ends.

The Cardinals averaged 8.2 yards per play and a 53.3% success rate with multiple tight ends, compared to 4.1 yards per play and a 25.9% success rate with just one tight end. The 49ers matched base or heavy personnel on all but one play when the Cardinals used multiple tight ends and matched nickel on all but one play when the Cardinals had just one tight end on the field.

Note that WR Zay Jones is eligible to return from his five-week suspension.

The Cardinals’ next game is against the Packers, followed by the Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, and Jets.
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Denver Broncos

Hold/Buy Javonte Williams | Add Troy Franklin & Audric Estime

In the Denver Broncos’ game, quarterback Bo Nix completed 19 of 27 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions. He posted a passer rating of 117.2 while averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, completing 70.4% of his passes.

Per Next Gen Stats, Nix faced pressure on only five dropbacks (16.1%) but was sacked three times. Nearly all of Nix’s pass production came on longer dropbacks – Nix finished 14 of 18 for 168 yards and 2 TD on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds, compared to 5 of 8 for 38 yards on quick passes.

In the run game, Javonte Williams carried the ball 13 times for 61 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, with a long run of 17 yards. Williams had two red zone carries without scoring. He had two carries inside the 5-yard line. Williams is starting to make his claim in this backfield after a slow start. His 63% snap rate was his highest since Week 2. He’s got an elite receiving role for an RB and is finally starting to run efficiently. He hasn’t scored yet, which makes him attainable, with 18 touches in back-to-back games and 11 forced missed tackles over that span.

Jaleel McLaughlin added 22 rushing yards on six attempts, averaging 3.7 yards per carry, while Marvin Mims Jr. had one carry for 17 yards. Bo Nix also contributed nine yards on eight carries.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Raiders’ defense struggled to get the Broncos’ ball carriers to the ground, missing 16 tackles for 63 yards lost and converting the first tackle opportunity only 41.5% of the time.

Javonte Williams forced 9 missed tackles on 18 touches, nearly hitting his total missed tackles forced in Weeks 1-4 combined (13).

Williams was also the leading receiver in the passing game, catching all five of his six targets for 50 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception with a long of 26 yards, and racking up 59 yards after the catch (YAC). McLaughlin was targeted on four passes, catching three for three yards and a touchdown.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey was targeted twice, catching both for 48 yards, averaging 24 yards per reception with 31 YAC. Courtland Sutton saw five targets, catching 2 for 32 yards, averaging 16 yards per catch with a long of 24 yards. Other notable receivers included Troy Franklin (two targets, one catch for 20 yards, and a drop on a long touchdown with 65 air yards), Adam Trautman (one target, one catch for 19 yards), and Josh Reynolds (two targets, one catch for 9 yards and a touchdown). Marvin Mims Jr. had one reception for seven yards from his one target.

Williams led with six targets (24% of Nix’s attempts), followed by Sutton with five targets (20%).

Denver will play the Chargers next, then the Saints and Panthers in their next three games.
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Las Vegas Raiders

Buy Brock Bowers | Hold Alexander Mattison & Jakobi Meyers

In the Las Vegas Raiders’ game, Gardner Minshew completed 12 of 17 passes for 137 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 74.5 and an average of 8.1 yards per attempt. He was benched, so Aidan O’Connell also played, completing 10 of 20 passes for 94 yards with one interception and no touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 42.5.

The rushing attack was led by Ameer Abdullah, who carried the ball five times for 42 yards and a touchdown, averaging 8.4 yards per carry with a long run of 40 yards. Alexander Mattison had 15 carries for 38 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. He was the Raiders RB1, seeing 57% of the snaps compared to Abdullah’s 44% snap rate.

Maybe Zamir White‘s isn’t the problem?

Minshew added 22 rushing yards on two attempts, and Tre Tucker and D.J. Turner contributed 13 rushing yards on three carries.

For the receiving corps, tight end Brock Bowers led the way with eight receptions on 12 targets, gaining 97 yards, averaging 12.1 yards per reception with a long of 57 yards, and an impressive 64 yards after the catch (YAC) with a touchdown. Bowers was also targeted two times in the red zone, catching one pass but not scoring in the red zone. His route participation is elite (76%) as the first-year tight end continues to melt faces in his rookie campaign.

Jakobi Meyers caught six of his nine targets for 72 yards, averaging 12 yards per reception with 21 YAC. Mattison added two receptions on three targets for 23 yards. Tucker contributed two receptions for 18 yards on five targets, while Turner added one catch for 12 yards. Tucker also saw 86 air yards.

Abdullah had three receptions for nine yards on three targets.

Bowers led with 12 targets (32% Target share), followed by Meyers with nine targets (23.7%). Mattison and Abdullah were targeted four and three times, respectively, while Tucker and Turner each had four targets.

Las Vegas will face the Steelers next. After that, the Raiders play @ LAR, vs. KC, and @ CIN before a Week 10 bye week.
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Pittsburgh Steelers

Hold Najee Harris | Buy/Add Jaylen Warren & George Pickens | Hold Pat Freiermuth

In the Pittsburgh Steelers game, Justin Fields completed 15 of 27 passes for 131 yards, throwing two touchdowns with no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 93.3.

Najee Harris led the ground attack with 14 carries for 42 yards, though he failed to find the end zone (again): 74% snap share and just more disappointment. But Harris does this every single season. He starts the year with zero scores just to find the end zone in the second half. Just hold him. In the meantime, add Jaylen Warren to your roster if he got dropped while battling this hamstring injury.

Also, the Raiders’ defense might not have Christian Wilkins on the defensive line next week after he hurt his foot against the Broncos in Week 5.

Fields also contributed on the ground, rushing six times for 27 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Additionally, Aaron Shampklin chipped in four carries for 14 yards, while Jonathan Ward carried the ball twice for 9 yards.

In the passing game, Harris was also involved as a receiver, catching both his targets (7% Target share) for a team-leading 35 yards, including a 20-yard catch. Vance Jefferson was targeted five times (19% Target share), catching three passes for 26 yards, averaging 8.7 yards per reception, with a long of 11 yards.

George Pickens saw a team-high seven targets (26% Target share), catching three passes for 26 yards, matching Jefferson’s 8.7 yards per reception, with a long catch of 21 yards. Note that Pickens didn’t play his normal allotment of snaps due to some coaching personal matter (62% route participation). Buy low.

Tight end Connor Heyward had four targets (15% Target share), securing two catches for 23 yards, averaging 11.5 yards per reception with a touchdown reception.

Tight end Pat Freiermuth was also productive, catching all three of his targets (11% Target share) for 22 yards, averaging 7.3 yards per reception with a touchdown. Freiermuth was targeted twice in the red zone, catching both passes and scoring one touchdown. A tight end that has shown a solid floor with a ceiling the last two weeks. Buy.

Brandon Johnson, Calvin Austin III, and Darnell Washington each saw limited targets. Johnson and Austin caught one pass apiece, gaining 9 and 6 yards, respectively, while Washington was held to one catch for five yards.

The Steelers will face LV, NYJ, and NYG in their next three games.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Pittsburgh is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks.
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Dallas Cowboys

Hold/Buy Rico Dowdle | Add Jalen Tolbert

In the Dallas Cowboys’ game, Dak Prescott completed 29 of 42 passes for 352 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 90.6 and an average of 8.4 yards per attempt.

The rushing attack was led by Rico Dowdle, who had 20 carries for 87 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards on a 50% snap share – the highest rate this season. Dowdle is finally starting to take advantage of his status as the Dallas RB1. However, he did lose a fumble that Prescott recovered.

Ezekiel Elliott was less effective, carrying the ball six times for 17 yards (2.8 yards per carry). Hunter Luepke contributed with two carries for six yards, while Prescott had three rushing yards on one attempt.

Jalen Tolbert was the top target in the passing game, seeing 10 targets (24% Target share, 119 air yards) and catching seven passes for 87 yards, averaging 12.4 yards per reception with a long of 48 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Tolbert was targeted three times in the red zone, catching two passes and scoring one touchdown. His role is secure in Dallas’ offense, with Brandin Cooks placed on IR.

Jake Ferguson also played a significant role, catching six of his seven targets (17% Target share) for 70 yards, averaging 11.7 yards per catch, including a 27-yard reception.

CeeDee Lamb caught five of his nine targets (22% Target share) for 62 yards (12.4 yards per reception), with his longest catch going for 27 yards. KaVontae Turpin was targeted five times (12% Target share), catching four passes for 50 yards, averaging 12.5 yards per reception, and making a 34-yard play.

Dowdle contributed in the passing game as well, catching both of his two targets (5% Target share) for 27 yards and one touchdown. Tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford caught all two of his three targets for 20 yards. Hunter Luepke had one reception for 18 yards on his only target (2% Target share). Jalen Brooks also caught his only target (2% Target share) for 10 yards; Ezekiel Elliott was targeted once (2% Target share) but did not make any significant contributions in the passing game.

The Cowboys will play the Lions before a Week 7 bye week.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, Dallas is tied for the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks.
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Kansas City Chiefs

Hold/Buy Travis Kelce & Xavier Worthy | Buy Kareem Hunt | Add JuJu Smith-Schuster | Drop Rashee Rice

The Kansas City Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, had a strong showing. Mahomes completed 28 of 39 pass attempts for 331 yards, though he did not throw a touchdown and had one interception in the red zone. He spread the ball effectively across several receivers.

Per Next Gen Stats, Mahomes accumulated nearly all of his passing production on attempts under 15 air yards (300 of 331 yards) in the Chiefs win over the Saints.

He was just 1 of 3 for 31 yards on passes over 15 air yards. Mahomes also featured play action on 27.3% of dropbacks, finishing 10 of 12 for 167 yards and an interception (13.9 YPA on play action, 6.1 without). Mahomes did not throw into a tight window on any of his 39 pass attempts.

JuJu Smith-Schuster was the top target, hauling in seven receptions on eight targets (23% Target share) for 130 yards, including a long catch of 50 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, JuJu added 83 yards after the catch (+16 YAC over expected), the highest mark by a Chiefs receiver this season.

Smith-Schuster’s massive game will warrant waiver wire consideration, but he’s on a bye week in Week 6. I’d expect Xavier Worthy‘s role to increase in full post-bye week fashion, so I would be hesitant to go overboard for Smith-Schuster even after the big Monday night game. Worthy ran more routes (32 vs 28) than Smith-Schuster. Justin Watson actually ran more routes than Smith-Schuster as well (29).

Tight end Travis Kelce also saw heavy involvement, catching nine of his 10 targets (29% Target share) for 70 yards. Per Next Gen Stats, Kelce was targeted eight times against zone, catching 7 for 57 yards and accumulating 30 yards after the catch (2/2, 13 yards vs man). Kelce averaged over 5 yards of separation against zone coverage (5.5), compared to 3.3 yards of separation versus man coverage.

Wide receiver Mecole Hardman was targeted four times, catching all four passes for 33 yards. He only played eight snaps on offense, so he was heavily targeted on a per route basis.

Noah Gray also made the most of his limited opportunities, catching both of his two targets for 29 yards.

Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy targeted six times (17% Target share), caught three passes for 25 yards, and scored a rushing touchdown. Running backs Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine each caught one pass (Perine’s only touch), with Hunt gaining 15 yards on his target, while Perine picked up 14 yards on his two targets.

On the ground, Kareem Hunt was the workhorse, carrying the ball 27 times for 102 yards and a touchdown on a 63% snap share, though his longest run was only 8 yards, indicating a grind-it-out performance at 3.8 yards per carry. It’s pretty clear that Hunt is the featured RB1 after the last two weeks. Perine can be dropped.

Mahomes himself contributed with six rushes for 22 yards. Backup running back Carson Steele had five carries for 12 yards. Steele is nothing more than a handcuff, and he can be dropped over the bye week.

Rashee Rice is expected to miss the remainder of the season. He can be dropped.

KC has a bye week in Week 6. Then, they will play the 49ers, Raiders, Buccaneers, Broncos, and Bills.
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New Orleans Saints

Buy Chris Olave | Hold Alvin Kamara | Add Kendre Miller

The New Orleans Saints offense, led by Derek Carr, had a mixed performance in this game. Carr completed 18 of 28 pass attempts for 165 yards, throwing two touchdowns but also one interception. He spread the ball around to multiple receivers, while Jake Haener came in for limited action, completing just two passes for 17 yards.

Carr (oblique) was unable to return to Monday’s 26-13 loss to the Chiefs after injuring his left oblique, Mike Triplett of NewOrleans.Football reports.

Rashid Shaheed had a standout game, catching four of his nine targets (28% Target share) for 86 yards (200-plus air yards), including a long reception of 43 yards and a touchdown. Alvin Kamara was involved both on the ground and through the air, rushing 11 times for 26 yards and catching six of his eight targets (25% Target share) for 40 yards, though he did not score. Juwan Johnson, targeted five times, caught five passes for 31 yards, while tight end Foster Moreau caught both of his two targets for 13 yards and Carr’s second touchdown.

Chris Olave was surprisingly quiet, catching only two of his four targets for 10 yards. He played 94% of the snaps and led the team in routes run. Just a bad game. He will bounce back.

Meanwhile, Mason Tipton had one catch on four targets for 2 yards-100-plus air yards into virtually nothing.

On the ground, Kamara led the rushing attack but averaged just 2.4 yards per carry on his 11 attempts while playing a whopping 89% snap share.

Jamaal Williams added two carries for nine yards, while Haener contributed two carries for 11 yards.

Kendre Miller can return from the IR and is worth stashing in deeper formats.

New Orleans plays Tampa Bay and Denver in the next two games, followed by the Chargers, Panthers, Falcons, and Browns.
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Bye Week Teams

Tennessee Titans

Buy Tony Pollard | Add DeAndre Hopkins & Calvin Ridley

Mason Rudolph completed nine of 17 passes for 85 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 67 and 5 yards per attempt in Week 4.

Will Levis completed three of four passes for 25 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 51 and 6.3 yards per attempt. Levis ran the ball twice for 5 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. He hurt his shoulder and did not return to the game. According to the head coach Brian Callahan, Levis is the starter if healthy coming out of the bye week.

Tony Pollard carried the ball 22 times for 88 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry, with a long run of 41 yards-60% snap share.

Tyjae Spears had 15 carries for 39 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards-42% snap share. Both Titans RBs scored rushing touchdowns on a combined 37 carries. Pollard dominated the carries inside the 20-yard line five to two over Spears.

Calvin Ridley had one rush for 10 yards.

DeAndre Hopkins was targeted four times (24% Target share, 53% air yards share), catching two passes for 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 16 yards. He remained on a lowly snap count with just a 32% snap share. He played the fourth most snaps among Titan WRs and ranked fifth overall in the team in routes run.

Tyler Boyd was targeted twice, catching two passes for 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 27 yards and 12 yards after catch.

Tony Pollard was targeted twice, catching two passes for 20 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception, with a long reception of 16 yards and 23 yards after catch.

Treylon Burks was targeted once, catching one pass for 13 yards with a long reception of 13 yards.

Calvin Ridley was targeted thrice (18% Target share), catching one pass for five yards. He led the Titans in routes run.

Chigoziem Okonkwo was targeted once, catching one pass for five yards. Josh Whyle was targeted once, catching one pass for five yards. Tyjae Spears caught one pass for 4 yards on his lone target.

The Titans had a Week 5 bye week, giving Levis time to get healthy.

The rest of the schedule: vs IND, @ BUF, @ DET, vs NE, @ LAC, vs MIN, @ HOU, @ WAS, vs JAC, vs CIN, @ IND and @ JAC.

The Titans’ offense was an efficient rushing operation in Week 4, as they went extremely conservative passing the ball. Hopkins and Ridley can’t be trusted as anything more than WR4s. My only hesitation about dropping either guy is that a potential Hopkins trade to the Chiefs could be a major boost to their respective values. But in shallower leagues, they can be thrown back into the wild. If they were dropped, they could be thrown in the WR3/FLEX mix in a plus-matchup against the Colts.

Also, keep in mind that, according to the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Titans’ quarterback schedule is the second-best in the league.
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Detroit Lions

Buy Lions

Jared Goff completed 18 of 18 passes for 292 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He had a perfect completion percentage of 100%, a passer rating of 155.8, and averaged 16.2 yards per attempt. He also caught a red-zone TD from Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Jahmyr Gibbs carried the ball 14 times for 78 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He played 57% of the snaps but did not record a catch for the second straight week. The Lions have gone super run-heavy the last two games, and have benefitted from positive game scripts. The targets will come.

David Montgomery had 12 carries for 40 yards and one rushing touchdown, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Montgomery was targeted once, catching his lone pass for 40 yards, with 39 yards after the catch. It was one of the best plays in this game. Monty played 40% of the snaps.

Each Lions RB saw red-zone usage, with five carries for Gibbs and four for Montgomery.

Jameson Williams was targeted only twice, catching both passes for 80 yards, averaging 40 yards per reception, with a long catch-and-run 70-yard touchdown. He played 96% of the snaps. He’s been excellent in three of his four games this season. Buy high.

Sam LaPorta was targeted four times (18%), catching four passes for 53 yards, averaging 13.3 yards per reception, with a long reception of 30 yards and 59 yards after the catch. LaPorta entered the game with an ankle injury but did not appear limited, with an 89% snap share and 19 routes run (tied for second-most on the team). He was also targeted once in the red zone.

Tim Patrick was targeted twice, catching both passes for 52 yards, averaging 26 yards per reception, with a long reception of 29 yards and 30 yards after the catch.

Amon-Ra St. Brown was targeted six times (27% Target share, two RZ), catching all the passes for 45 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 17 yards and 14 yards after the catch.

Brock Wright was targeted twice (one RZ), catching one pass for 13 yards.

Kalif Raymond was targeted once, catching one pass for 9 yards.

The Lions had a Week 5 bye week. I want these Lions on my roster. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s a great schedule for RBs.

After they return to action in Week 6, Detroit plays Dallas, Minnesota, and Tennessee.
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Los Angeles Chargers

Buy J.K. Dobbins & Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston

Justin Herbert completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown, and one interception with a passer rating of 91.4.

J.K. Dobbins carried the ball 14 times for 32 yards (2.3 YPC). Dobbins caught all four of his targets for 30 yards (15% Target share) while seeing a strong 71% snap share-back-to-back weeks where Dobbins has dominated the snaps and the touches. Once the Chargers get their OL healthy post-bye week, Dobbins will be cooking. Buy low off the bye week.

Gus Edwards rushed six times for 19 yards (3.2 YPC).

Quentin Johnston had one carry for four yards.

Ladd McConkey caught five of seven targets for 67 yards and one touchdown (26% Target share). He might be a sneaky trade target while on bye this week-27% Target share this season.

Joshua Palmer caught three of four targets for 36 yards (15% Target share).

Will Dissly caught two of three targets for 24 yards (11% Target share).

Johnston caught one of five targets for nine yards (19% Target share). He had some downfield shots (44.5% air yards share) but didn’t convert.

Hayden Hurst was targeted three times, catching one for six yards.

LA had a Week 5 bye. The remaining schedule is as follows: @ DEN, @ ARI, vs. NO, @ CLE, vs. TEN, vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ ATL, @ KC, vs. TB, vs. DEN, @ NE, and @ LV.

Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chargers have a bottom worst-ranked schedule for QBs.
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Philadelphia Eagles

Buy/Hold Eagles | Sell Dallas Goedert

Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 30 passes for 158 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with a passer rating of 85.1. He also rushed eight times for 20 yards and a touchdown.

In the rushing game, Saquon Barkley led the team with 10 carries for 84 yards, including a long run of 59 yards.

Dallas Goedert was the leading receiver, catching 7 of 8 targets for 62 yards (27% Target share). Barkley also contributed in the passing game with two receptions for 32 yards on four targets (13% Target share).

The Eagles’ offense struggled without the two top receivers. Parris Campbell and Jahan Dotson started in relief. Each saw four targets and fewer than 20 receiving yards. Campbell scored and caught all four of his targets.

Starting offensive tackle Lane Johnson did not play, and the result was bad (as it usually is).

Per Next Gen Stats, making his first start since 2021 in place of Lane Johnson at right tackle, Fred Johnson allowed a team-high nine pressures and a sack in the Eagles Week 4 loss to the Buccaneers.

Philadelphia’s offense was a disaster, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for a bye week to get back their key contributors on offense.

Given that they are coming off a bye week coming off a dreadful game, I’d be looking to acquire Eagles players through trade if I feel good about my record (5-0, 4-1, etc.). If anything, you might be able to sell high on Goedert, given his production spike won’t last when the Eagles WRs return.

After the bye week, the Eagles will face the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams, and Ravens. The Eagles’ schedule is very good for the rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and RBs.

Especially considering their defense continues to miss tackles. Against the Buccaneers, the Eagles allowed 105 yards after missed tackles (across 16 total missed tackles), the 2nd-most yards lost by a defense in a game this season per Next Gen Stats.

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