Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 4 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.
And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.
Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.
Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 5 to prepare our rosters for future success.
Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 5 slate.
- More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Week 5 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below!
| AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST | NFC EAST | NFC NORTH | NFC SOUTH | NFC WEST |
| BUF | BAL | HOU | KC | DAL | DET | TB | SF |
| MIA | CLE | JAC | LV | PHI | GB | NO | LAR |
| NYJ | PIT | IND | DEN | NYG | MIN | ATL | SEA |
| NE | CIN | TEN | LAC | WAS | CHI | CAR | ARI |
Trade Advice
My thoughts on this week’s trade market.
- When making a trade, always weigh the short-term versus long-term gains. I know sometimes we can make trades with only the short-term at the top of our minds, but this can lead to pitfalls down the line. Conversely, adjusting expectations short-term for massive long-term gains might be the key to league-winning maneuvers.
- We always discuss polarizing players that are hot on the trade market. But sometimes, the best time to acquire players is when they are out of sight, out of mind, i.e., teams on bye weeks or players who have been hurt. The Lions, Chargers, Titans, and Eagles are on byes.
- You know who wants to make a trade in your league? The Rashee Rice manager.
- We don’t often discuss QB trades in fantasy football (especially in 2QB leagues), but thinking about which quarterbacks you would trade for can help you make other moves. If there’s an RB/WR you want to target in trade, ask yourself, “Would I also then trade for this team’s QB?” If so, fire away. If not, you need to re-evaluate the situation.
Bye Weeks
Week 5
- Detroit Lions
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Tennessee Titans
Week 6
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
Dallas Cowboys
Hold/Sell Rico Dowdle | Drop Ezekiel Elliott | Buy Jalen Tolbert | Sell Brandin Cooks
Dak Prescott completed 22 of 27 passes for 221 yards, throwing two touchdowns and no interceptions, with a passer rating of 125.5.
Rico Dowdle led the backfield again for Dallas. Dowdle had 11 carries for 46 yards, averaging 4.2 YPC, with a long run of 9 yards and one receiving touchdown.
Ezekiel Elliott had just five carries for 19 yards, averaging 3.8 YPC, with a long run of 8 yards. Zeke has fallen far on this depth chart, with the Cowboys opting to use FB Hunter Luepke in key situations as both a rusher/receiver.
Dowdle’s touchdown saved his day, but the overall usage – 45% snap share, fewer than 11 touches per game – isn’t great. With two tough matchups coming up, I’m not sure how usable he can be. It might be a nice time to sell high on the Dallas RB1, with the perceived value higher than the actual value.
CeeDee Lamb led the team with seven receptions on eight targets, totaling 98 yards and one touchdown, averaging 14 YPR, with a long reception of 55 yards and 52 YAC-30% target share.
Tight end Jake Ferguson caught seven passes on seven targets for 49 yards, averaging 7 YPR, with a long reception of 9 yards and 28 YAC-26% target share.
Jalen Tolbert had three receptions on three targets for 24 yards, averaging 8 YPR, with a long catch of 15 yards and 13 YAC-11% target share.
Brandin Cooks caught one pass on four targets for 16 yards, averaging 4 YPR, with a long reception of 16 yards and 10 YAC. Cooks ran the most routes. The usage is there for the taking with Cooks, but his lack of production makes him a low-confidence bet as a bye-week fill-in wideout.
The Cowboys will play the Steelers and Lions over their next two games before a Week 7 bye week. It’s a great matchup on paper for the slot, so we should see continued success from Lamb. However, Tolbert actually leads Dallas in yards per route run (2.18) from the slot.
The Cowboys’ defense will keep their offense aggressive. Their top two pass rushers, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, are both dealing with injuries.
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New York Giants
Hold Malik Nabers | Add Wan’Dale Robinson | Buy Devin Singletary
Daniel Jones completed 29 of 40 passes for 281 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, with a passer rating of 81.4.
Devin Singletary rushed 14 times for 24 yards, averaging 1.7 YPC, with a long run of five yards.
Jones ran four times for 3 yards. Tyrone Tracy Jr. had four carries for 2 yards. Tracy Jr. had one reception on one target for 19 yards with 25 YAC.
Devin Singletary had one reception for 14 yards with 18 YAC.
Rookie WR Malik Nabers was targeted a whopping 15 times and caught 12 passes for 115 yards, averaging 9.6 YPR, with a long reception of 39 yards and 31 YAC-37.5% target share.
Wan’Dale Robinson had 11 catches on 14 targets for 71 yards, averaging 6.5 YPR, with a long reception of 11 yards and 37 YAC-35% target share.
Darius Slayton caught three of his five targets for 56 yards, with a long catch of 28.
Theo Johnson caught one pass for six yards.
Jalin Hyatt was targeted once but did not record a catch.
Through four games, Nabers leads the NFL in target share (38%). The rookie suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Thursday’s 20-15 loss to the Cowboys. With an extended layoff between games, Nabers should return in Week 5. However, the sustainability with Nabers seeing this crazy amount of volume begs the question, how long can he keep this up without sustaining more injuries?
I’m probably overthinking this, but Brian Daboll might look elsewhere to distribute the Giants, given the recent concussion. Then again, Nabers seeing all the targets is the best way for Daboll and Jones to keep their jobs.
Either way, Robinson is a must-add. Strong target share and usage in Week 4, with a strong 28% target share this season. That’s usually a great number for a No. 1 WR, let alone a No. 2. While Nabers ranks first in total targets this season (13 per game), Robinson ranks fourth (9.5).
New York will host Seattle and Cincinnati in the next two games. Singletary off a prime-time stinker might be a nice buy-low target. The Seahawks are dealing with defensive line issues, and the Bengals are bleeding production to running backs. Singletary ranks inside the top 20 in total touches this season. Just don’t break the bank, as the Giants’ running game has not been consistent whatsoever.
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Minnesota Vikings
Hold/Sell Aaron Jones | Drop Jalen Nailor | Sell Jordan Addison | Add T.J. Hockenson | Hold Ty Chandler
Sam Darnold completed 20 of 28 passes for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, earning a passer rating of 123.4. Per Next Gen Stats, Sam Darnold is the first quarterback to win and have two or more passing touchdowns in each of his first four career starts for a team in the Super Bowl era.
Aaron Jones had a whopping 22 carries for 93 yards but didn’t score in his revenge game. Jones caught four of five targets for 46 yards (18% target share). Ty Chandler only had three carries for five yards.
It was a clear effort to get Jones more usage against his old team, as the ex-Packers RB played an 82% snap share. Chandler played 12% of the snaps, which was very different than the previous three weeks. The “sell-high” window on Jones is open, but it’s just a move to get out before he breaks down as the season progresses. It’s not a MUST-SELL by any means, but just put him on the block to potentially upgrade elsewhere on your roster. Jones is pacing well over 300 touches (20 per game). He’s never had more than 285 touches in a season (2019)-just something to be aware of. Don’t drop Chandler.
I’d bet we see this usage narrow back to the first three weeks sooner rather than later, although a Week 6 bye week suggests that Jones could get some steady run in Week 5 against a suspect Jets run defense.
Sam Darnold rushed seven times for 15 yards.
Justin Jefferson caught six of eight targets for 85 yards and one touchdown (29% target share).
Jordan Addison caught three of four targets for 72 yards and one receiving touchdown (14% target share). Addison carried once for seven yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He also returned to his normal role, running a route on 76% of the dropbacks.
Addison is the obvious guy among the candidates to “sell” in the Vikings offense. He still might be suspended later this season. Note that his arraignment and plea hearing are scheduled for Oct. 7 (during the bye week). Touchdowns boost his production, and Darnold’s 10% TD rate will regress (sorry). Also, he might be pressed for targets with T.J. Hockenson coming back soon.
The Jets are a bad matchup for WRs in Week 5. Sell high on Addison.
Jalen Nailor caught one of two targets for 31 yards (7% target share). He can be dropped as he fell to third in the Vikings WR pecking order with just a 32% route participation.
Johnny Mundt caught two of two targets for 15 yards (7% target share).
Josh Oliver caught two of two targets for 10 yards (7% target share).
Minnesota will take on the Jets (London) before a Week 6 bye. If you are hurting at tight end (aren’t we all), testing the trade market/free agency waivers on T.J. Hockenson might make sense.
After the bye week, Minnesota plays at IND, vs. ARI, @ BUF, @ LAR, and vs. LV. This is a good schedule for the offense to stay on an upward trend.
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Green Bay Packers
Add Tucker Kraft & Dontayvion Wicks | Buy Josh Jacobs
Jordan Love completed 32 of 54 passes for 389 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 83.0. The team was down massively at halftime and was able to crawl their way back on the back of Love’s arm. Love tosses four red-zone touchdowns on nine attempts in Week 4.
Per Next Gen Stats, Love struggled against the Vikings blitz throughout the day, completing 16 of 25 attempts (-5.3% CPOE) for 157 yards, including one touchdown and two of his three interceptions.
Josh Jacobs had nine carries for 51 yards. Jacobs caught four of six targets for 27 yards (11% target share) while leading the backfield with a 61% snap rate.
Emanuel Wilson had eight carries for 27 yards. Jacobs saw two more carries (also two targets) inside the red zone but didn’t score again. Green Bay had the ball at the three-yard line, but they got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. Jacobs’ inability to score is beyond frustrating, but the fact that he could muster production in the face of a massive negative game script is a positive. With Love back under center, Jacobs is a BUY. He is eighth in touches this season.
When Love has been under center this season, Jacobs has rushed into stacked boxes on just one of 26 carries. The touchdowns will come.
Jayden Reed caught seven of eight targets for 139 yards and one touchdown (15% target share). The buy-low window is gone (sad face emoji).
Dontayvion Wicks caught five of 13 targets for 78 yards and two touchdowns (24% target share). Christian Watson left the game with an injury. Wicks saw 10 of his targets in the second half alone, with three coming in the red zone and 200 air yards. Love was chucking it aggressively to Wicks to get the Packers back in the game. The breakout was delayed because of Love’s injury. But with Love back and Watson on the injury shelf, the Wicks is on fire.
Tucker Kraft caught six of nine targets for 53 yards and one touchdown (17% target share)–79% route participation (second highest on the team). Kraft singles, baby.
We have arrived. The Packers second-year tight end caught both of his red-zone targets. He is tied for the NFL lead among TEs in red-zone targets (4). If you can trade Mark Andrews for Kraft … You do it.
Romeo Doubs caught four of eight targets for 39 yards (15% target share). Seven first-half targets. Given his role, Doubs is a safe projection every week, but I think Wicks has more long-term upside.
Bo Melton caught one of one target for 28 yards and a 100% catch rate (2% target share). Add him in deeper formats.
Luke Musgrave caught one of three targets for 13 yards (6% target share).
The Packers will play the Rams and Cardinals in their next two contests. These are great matchups for the Packers offense to COOK.
Then it’s Houston, Jacksonville, and Detroit before a Week 10 bye week.
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Chicago Bears
Buy/Hold Rome Odunze & Keenan Allen | Sell D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Roschon Johnson
Caleb Williams completed 17 of 23 passes for 157 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 106.6.
D’Andre Swift had 16 carries for 93 yards and scored one touchdown. Swift caught all seven of his targets for 72 yards (30% target share). It was easily his best day as a Bear, with boosted receiving usage.
Roschon Johnson rushed seven times for 26 yards and scored one touchdown on one of his two red-zone opportunities.
So, the team did give Johnson more opportunities, as he and Swift split carries six to four in the first half. But it was different from last week, where Swift looked more like the starter. Johnson didn’t see his first touch until the second quarter. Swift also played 63% of the snaps to Johnson’s 37% snap share.
It seemed like the coaching staff’s suggestion of more opportunities for Johnson was more of a detriment to Khalil Herbert, who played zero offensive snaps. You can probably drop Herbert in shallow formats. However, in deep formats, hold him. I could see him getting traded to a team like the Raiders or Cowboys if the Bears see no use for him.
Regardless, Swift managers were gifted an escape route this past Sunday. After being my buy-low two weeks ago, Swift is a screaming sell-high behind this patchwork OL. He’s not going to command a team-high target share every week nor score touchdowns when the Bears have other designated RBs slated for goal-line work. Use the Panthers matchup to ship Swift off.
Cole Kmet caught all three of his targets for 34 yards (13% target share). His usage was still solid (73% route participation, season-high), so it’s safe to say Gerald Everett is a non-factor. Target competition is the bigger concern.
D.J. Moore caught three of six targets for 22 yards (26% target share) and one touchdown (three red-zone targets). Moore also led the Bears with 69 air yards (47%). Moore was a sell last week and remained a sell-high off the touchdown score. Again, hold with solid matchups upcoming if you cannot get anything worthwhile.
Keenan Allen caught all three targets for 19 yards (13% target share). Rome Odunze was limited to one catch on three targets.
It was Allen’s first game back from injury, so I am willing to let this performance slide. Among the Bears WRs to target in trade – because the schedule is so juicy – Allen might be my favorite in the short term. He’s a short-to-intermediate target, and that’s when Williams was at his best this past Sunday. Williams was 15 of 15 on passes under 15 air yards against the Rams in Week 4, completing +21.6% of passes over expected.
I also like Rome Odunze as a sneaky buy. Allen’s presence nuked his target appeal, but he is still a top-10 real-life NFL Draft WR talent.
Chicago also lost guard Teven Jenkins. It was a great matchup that the Bears passing offense couldn’t take advantage of. Despite their ability to run the ball, this offensive line still has major issues. Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams pass rush pressured Caleb Williams on half of his dropbacks (13 pressures on 26 dropbacks), led by Byron Young and Jared Verse with five pressures apiece.
The Bears will face the Panthers and Jaguars until their Week 7 bye week.
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Los Angeles Rams
Add Jordan Whittington | Sell/Hold Kyren Williams | Drop Demarcus Robinson
Matthew Stafford completed 20 of 29 passes for 224 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, earning a passer rating of 77.4.
Kyren Williams had 19 carries for 94 yards, scoring one touchdown. Williams caught all four of his targets for 10 yards (14% target share). Ronnie Rivers rushed six times for 26 yards.
Williams is seeing all the volume he can handle, playing nearly every down role for the Rams. If you have him and want to ride it out, be my guest. But he’s pacing for 385 touches at 21.5 touches per game. We’ve seen this story before. Also, consider the Week 6 bye week if you are hurting for wins.
Tutu Atwell caught four of six targets for 82 yards (21% target share)–91% route participation.
Jordan Whittington caught six of eight targets for 62 yards (28% target share). And this was not just a random occurrence. Whittington saw his role change dramatically with 100% route participation.
This usage was more in line with what we expected from Whittington, although this time, it was not Whittington in the slot. He played 69% of his snaps out wide, which tells me that he will stay involved even when Cooper Kupp and/or Puka Nacua return.
Demarcus Robinson caught two of three targets for 37 yards (10% target share). He runs the routes but continues to post lackluster production. I would rather have Atwell or Whittington going forward.
Colby Parkinson caught four of seven targets for 33 yards (24% target share). He was targeted twice in the red zone but didn’t score. Parkinson is tied for the NFL lead in red-zone targets (4), but he has zero TDs. The usage is pretty strong for Parkinson, but the lack of target volume means he can’t be trusted.
The Rams will face the Packers before a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needs the bye week to get its roster healthy and closer to full strength. Then it’s vs. LV, vs. MIN, @ SEA, vs. MIA, @ NE, vs. PHI, and @ NO.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Rachaad White | Buy Bucky Irving | Add Cade Otton
Baker Mayfield completed 30 of 47 passes for 347 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a passer rating of 100.2. He also rushed four times for 10 yards and a touchdown.
Per Next Gen Stats, Mayfield completed 30 of his 47 pass attempts for 347 yards and two touchdowns, while averaging the 2nd-quickest time to throw of his career (2.22 seconds).
Baker thrived in the quick passing game (under 2.5 seconds), finishing the day 22 of 32 for 219 yards and a touchdown on such passes.
In the rushing game, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving led with 10 carries each, gaining 49 yards. Irving added a rushing touchdown (after he failed on his goal-line attempt prior). Mayfield scored the other rushing touchdown.
White had three targets to Irving’s two.
We knew Irving would see more carries, but I wasn’t entirely sure who would see more red-zone opportunities. Six of Irving’s carries came inside the Eagles’ 22-yard line. White had zero red-zone opportunities.
White also saw his snaps reduced to 58%, while Irving’s was 42%. Irving saw a season-high in routes run at White’s expense.
Mike Evans led the receivers, catching eight of 14 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown (30% target share, two RZ). Chris Godwin caught six of nine targets for 69 yards (19% target share, two RZ), while Cade Otton contributed six catches on nine targets for 52 yards (19% target share).
Note that Sterling Shepard stepped in due to injuries among the Buccaneers WRs. Jalen McMillan missed this game, and Trey Palmer (three catches and one touchdown) was hurt during Week 4. Shepard caught three passes for 51 yards on five targets.
Undrafted rookie WR Kameron Johnson also played in this contest, coming close to a red-zone touchdown catch that fell incomplete.
If you are hurting at tight end (who isn’t), Otton has some appeal, given all the injuries to the Buccaneers’ No. 3 WRs.
Tampa will play the Falcons on Thursday night, followed by the Saints, Ravens, and Falcons again.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Buy/Hold Eagles
Jalen Hurts completed 18 of 30 passes for 158 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with a passer rating of 85.1. He also rushed eight times for 20 yards and a touchdown.
In the rushing game, Saquon Barkley led the team with 10 carries for 84 yards, including a long run of 59 yards.
Dallas Goedert was the leading receiver, catching 7 of 8 targets for 62 yards (27% target share). Barkley also contributed in the passing game with two receptions for 32 yards on four targets (13% target share).
The Eagles’ offense struggled without the two top receivers, Parris Campbell and Jahan Dotson. Each saw four targets and fewer than 20 receiving yards. Campbell scored and caught all four of his targets.
Starting offensive tackle Lane Johnson did not play, and the result was bad (as it usually is).
Per Next Gen Stats, making his first start since 2021 in place of Lane Johnson at right tackle, Fred Johnson allowed a team-high nine pressures and a sack in the Eagles Week 4 loss to the Buccaneers.
Philadelphia’s offense was a disaster, and they couldn’t have asked for a better time for a bye week to get back their key contributors on offense.
Given that they are on a bye week coming off a dreadful game, I’d be looking to acquire Eagles players through trade if I feel good about my record (4-0, 3-1, etc.). If anything, you might be able to sell high on Goedert, given his production spike won’t last when the Eagles WRs return.
After the bye week, the Eagles will face the Browns, Giants, Bengals, Jaguars, Cowboys, Commanders, Rams, and Ravens. The Eagles’ schedule is very good for the rest of the season. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.1-ranked schedule for quarterbacks and RBs.
Especially considering their defense continues to miss tackles. Against the Buccaneers, the Eagles allowed 105 yards after missed tackles (across 16 total missed tackles), the 2nd-most yards lost by a defense in a game this season per Next Gen Stats.
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Carolina Panthers
Buy Diontae Johnson, Chuba Hubbard, Jonathon Brooks | Add Xavier Legette
Andy Dalton completed 25 of 40 passes for 220 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception, earning a passer rating of 83.3.
Chuba Hubbard had 18 carries for 104 yards and scored one touchdown. Hubbard caught all four of his targets for 17 yards (10% target share). Miles Sanders rushed six times for 32 yards. Xavier Legette added two rushes for 10 yards.
Hubbard might be viewed as a “sell,” given the eventual return of Jonathon Brooks. However, the timetable for the rookie is still unknown. It won’t be Week 5 that they open up his 21-day practice window. And why rush their prized second-round selection when Hubbard is playing so well?
The Panthers have a bye week in Week 11. If Brooks becomes a league-winner, it will likely come during Weeks 12 onward. Make trades accordingly.
Diontae Johnson had 13 targets, catching seven for 83 yards and one touchdown (32% target share, two RZ, 159 air yards). DJ was super productive for the second week in a row. However, Johnson also left more production on the table for the second consecutive week.
His role is one of the best you could ask for among fantasy football WRs. Buy high. Leads the NFL in red-zone targets. The easiest path to a fantasy WR1 status is red-zone targets. Johnson also ranks third in the NFL in total targets, trailing only Nabers and Nico Collins.
Per PFF’s expected fantasy points model, Johnson ranks fifth in expected fantasy points per game this season (16.4). He ranks third in that category over the last two weeks.
Legette caught six of 10 targets for 66 yards (25% target share) and scored while accumulating 91 air yards.
Jonathon Mingo caught three of five targets for 24 yards (13% target share).
The Panthers deployed heavy 3-WR sets, with Mingo, Johnson, and Legette all running a route on 84% of the dropbacks. I’ve been impressed with Legette and want to add the first-rounder to as many leagues as possible.
Tommy Tremble led the Panthers among routes for the tight ends (72%).
Carolina will face the Chicago Bears in Week 5, then the Falcons, Commanders, and Broncos.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Sell Zack Moss, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki | Buy Chase Brown | Add Erick All Jr.
Joe Burrow completed 22 of 31 passes for 232 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception, earning a passer rating of 100.5. The offensive line has been great so far this season, keeping Burrow out of harm’s way. Burrow has been the second-least pressured quarterback this season (19.5%).
Chase Brown carried the ball 15 times for 80 yards and scored two touchdowns.
Zack Moss added 15 carries for 51 yards. It was a true 60-40% split in favor of Moss.
Finally, we have the Chase Brown breakout game we have been waiting for. After three weeks of looking explosive, Cincy finally gave him more opportunities, and he delivered.
The overall usage was interesting because Brown finally got red zone usage. He scored and had another red zone target close to the end zone, but he was unable to haul it in.
Moss had four carries in the first half to Brown’s two (one for the TD). Both of Brown’s TDs came inside the three-yard line.
But Moss still had more receiving usage (three targets in the first half). More targets overall.
Regardless, this type of performance is hard to ignore. Both Bengals RBs are producing, and Brown is forcing his way onto the field. Chase Brown SZN. The time is now to move Moss before a full-fledged Brown takeover.
Next week’s matchup is going to be tough against Baltimore. Then it’s the Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders as their next slate of opponents.
Ja’Marr Chase had six targets, catching three for 85 yards and one touchdown (19% target share).
Tee Higgins led with 10 targets, catching six for 60 yards (32% target share). He was heavily involved from the get-go on short and downfield passes (56% air yards share). If you’ve been frustrated by Higgins this season, this is your ticket out. Always sell these boom-or-bust WRs AFTER spiked games.
Andrei Iosivas caught one pass for 29 yards on one target (3% target share).
Erick All caught all four targets for 28 yards (13% target share). Death, taxes, and Erick All with four caches on four targets. All is still behind Mike Gesicki in routes run, but there’s no denying that the Bengals love this rookie tight end.
As we saw with Brown’s usage, I’d expect to see more of All, even if it takes a few weeks. ALL IN.
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Atlanta Falcons
Sell Kyle Pitts | Add Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson | Hold Tyler Allgeier
Kirk Cousins completed 21 of 35 passes for 238 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception, with a passer rating of 68.5.
Tyler Allgeier had eight carries for 60 yards in the rushing attack, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, while Bijan Robinson added seven carries for 28 yards. Robinson saw the most work in the first half (six carries to TA’s one). Robinson had three touches in the second half (one nullified by a penalty).
Bijan Robinson was involved with four catches for 46 yards on four targets (11% target share). He had a TD catch called back due to a penalty. Allgeier also caught two passes for 20 yards.
Robinson has seen his snaps drop dramatically since Week 1, when he was at 89%. In Week 4, his snap share hit a season-low at 64%, whereas Allgeier hit a season-high (38%).
Running backs don’t win leagues in Weeks 1-4. They win them in the second half of the season. B-Rob has been disappointing, but there’s room for growth. There’s a buy-low window for RB that could be a cheat code at the position. Take the leap.
Drake London led the team with 12 targets, catching six for 64 yards (34% target share). The yardage wasn’t great with the Saints tight coverage. But London’s usage was off the charts – pun intended. He had 164 air yards with a dominant target share.
Darnell Mooney caught three of six targets for 56 yards (17% target share) with over 120 air yards.
Ray-Ray McCloud hauled in six of seven targets for 52 yards (20% target share).
Kyle Pitts. Say it ain’t so. I was worried about the usage last week, and we hit rock bottom. Zero catches on three targets. He had one catch reversed due to a penalty, but it’s not great people. Usage is down for the fourth straight week (67% route participation). It’s not happening for Pitts. We should have known it was over when Pitts was forced to keep Cousins’ No. 8 jersey number.
Atlanta plays the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Seahawks over the next three weeks. All in all, you want to be a buyer on the Falcons after a relatively (and somewhat unsurprising) slow first month.
That being said, the blitz-heavy Buccaneers aren’t an ideal spot in Week 5. In Week 4, nearly all of Kirk Cousins‘ passing production came when the Saints did not blitz, which accounted for 208 of his 238 total passing yards. Cousins averaged 8.7 yards per attempt against four or fewer pass rushers per Next Gen Stats compared to 2.7 against the blitz. Bowles will be bringing the HEAT on Thursday night. Robinson better be ready for those check-down passes.
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New Orleans Saints
Hold Rashid Shaheed | Add Juwan Johnson
Derek Carr completed 28 of 36 passes for 239 yards, no touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 82.8. Carr ran pretty cold with zero TDs, considering he attempted six passes in the red zone. But he was under pressure for the second straight week, which is undoubtedly related to the recent injuries across the offensive line.
Alvin Kamara led the rushing attack with 19 carries for 77 yards and one touchdown. Taysom Hill contributed two rushing touchdowns on six carries for 24 yards. But he left the game with an injury.
In the receiving game, Chris Olave caught eight of 10 targets for 87 yards (28% target share), while Rashid Shaheed had eight receptions on 11 targets for 83 yards (31% target share). Both Saints WRs came inches away from scores in the red zone. Shaheed’s eight catches were a career-high (three red-zone targets). Through four games, he ranks in the top 5 in air yards share (51%).
Shaheed’s role as a one-trick pony has changed in 2024. However, it’s still important to note that his zone/man splits remain undefeated. Against KC, it’s not a Shaheed smash spot, given that they rank 28th in zone coverage.
Kamara also chipped in with seven catches for 42 yards on nine targets (25% target share). It is the best receiving usage for almost any RB in the NFL, but his workload is HEFTY. Kamara is on pace for over 400 touches. His volume is going to come down, one way or another.
Juwan Johnson had three targets but had another long 29-yard catch wiped off the board because of a penalty. He led the Saints TE room in routes run.
New Orleans plays KC, Tampa Bay, and Denver in the next three games.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Sell Christian Kirk | Buy Brian Thomas Jr. & Travis Etienne Jr. | Add Tank Bigsby
Trevor Lawrence completed 18 of 33 passes for 169 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 89.1. Lawrence also rushed three times for five yards.
In the rushing game, Tank Bigsby led the way with 90 yards on seven carries (12.9 YPC), with a long of 58 yards. Travis Etienne Jr. contributed 50 yards on 11 carries (4.5 YPC).
Etienne was sidelined early with a shoulder injury but came back into the game (52% snap share). He only had two targets.
The Bigsby performance was a lot like Week 1, and that didn’t carry over. He got hurt in that contest, and it wasn’t until this matchup we saw him get back up in work. He has hardly been reliable, but the Colts in Week 5 are a great matchup for him to keep rolling. Bigsby saw two carries inside the 5-yard line to Etienne’s one.
Etienne is off to a rough 2024 start. The usage has been up and down along with the production. But because there are so many question marks, Etienne is attainable ahead of a great matchup. And sometimes it just takes one week to get back in the green a la D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, etc. Be wary that this might only be a short-term fix. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars have the worst remaining schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the top receiver, catching six of nine targets for 86 yards and one touchdown (27% target share). Thomas saw a boatload of air yards (132). If the manager in your league doesn’t realize what they have in BTJ, take advantage. Stud muffin.
Christian Kirk had the most targets with 12, catching 7 for 61 yards and a touchdown (36% target share, 41% target rate); 178 air yards turned into 61 real yards. Womp.
Still, Kirk has produced for two weeks. Like last week, I’d sell high. Evan Engram‘s eventual return will put a target squeeze on these short passes over the middle of the field.
No Engram again in Week 4, so Brenton Strange filled in at tight end with three catches for 19 yards on three targets.
The Jags will play Indianapolis in Week 5 at home. The schedule is improving, which will help this offense get back on track. @ CHI, vs. NE, vs. GB, @ PHI, vs. MIN, and @ DET before a Week 12 bye week.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Jaguars have the BEST remaining schedule for WRs rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr. is COMING.
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Houston Texans
Hold Cam Akers | Buy Tank Dell & Joe Mixon
C.J. Stroud had an impressive performance, completing 27 of 40 passes for 345 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He finished with a passer rating of 110.9.
In the rushing game, Cam Akers led the way with 53 yards on 13 carries (4.1 YPC), and J.J. Taylor added 18 yards on six carries. Dare Ogunbowale caught all four of his targets for 47 yards and one touchdown as the primary receiving back.
Akers handled the red-zone work (three carries and 40% snap share). He has to be held until Joe Mixon returns.
Nico Collins had a massive game through the air, catching 12 of his 15 targets for 151 yards and one touchdown (38% target share). Stefon Diggs also contributed five catches for 69 yards (23% target share) with a six-yard rushing touchdown.
Dalton Schultz had five targets and three catches for 34 yards with Tank Dell not in the lineup. Robert Woods took on the Dell snaps/routes.
Dell feels like a forgotten piece of the Texans’ offense. He missed this game with an injury. Perhaps he is the missing ingredient that the Texans need to return to full form offensively-either him or Mixon. I don’t usually recommend buying damaged goods, but Dell and Mixon’s injuries don’t seem so serious that they won’t return as early as Week 5. Both guys have been labeled day-to-day as of Monday.
If I were to buy a piece of the Bills, it would be Diggs. He’s the best matchup as the underneath option against Buffalo. I could also see Schultz as a decent TE streaming option if Dell misses another week for similar reasons.
The Texans face Buffalo (Diggs revenge game), then take on the Patriots, Packers, Colts, Jets, and Lions.
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Indianapolis Colts
Hold/Sell Michael Pittman Jr. | Hold Josh Downs | Add Trey Sermon
Joe Flacco completed 16 of 26 passes for 168 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, with a passer rating of 105.9. Anthony Richardson completed three of four passes for 71 yards before he was knocked out of the game with an injury (hip). He said post-game that he is not sure whether he’ll be available next weekend against the Jaguars. Richardson is considered day-to-day with oblique and abdominal strains.
Jonathan Taylor carried the ball 21 times for 88 yards (4.2 YPC) and one touchdown. Richardson added 24 yards on three carries (8.0 YPC). Taylor contributed three receptions on four targets for 20 yards.
Taylor was forced out of action with an ankle injury. Make sure Trey Sermon isn’t available on the waiver wire. Despite what he said post-game, I don’t believe that JT will be ready. Prepare for the worst with these ankle injuries. Tyler Goodson would be the additional target among the Colts backfield in deeper formats.
Michael Pittman Jr. was the leading receiver, catching six of his nine targets for 113 yards (27% target share). He led the Colts with 116 air yards (37% air yards share). He ranks third in the NFL in target share (30%) through four games.
Josh Downs followed with eight receptions on nine targets for 82 yards and one touchdown (27% target share, two red-zone targets). Downs ranks second in the NFL in target rate per route run (39%) through two games.
The role and the targets that Pittman sees are that of an alpha. But the fantasy points aren’t there with Richardson under center. Consider that Downs is also earning targets at a high level, and there’s a serious Pittman dilemma at hand.
If you buy “low” now, you are betting on Flacco drawing the start against the Jaguars. The matchup is divine. But if Richardson plays, it could be more of the same from the first three weeks of the season for Pittman, with Downs’ added target share an additional wrinkle thrown in.
Downs is just a hold because you won’t get anything worthwhile in trade.
Back to Pittman. I think we need to think more about the long game. In the short term, if you need a boost at WR (for example, your team lost Rashee Rice), I think Pittman is a buy. You hope Flacco plays, Richardson improves with softer matchups upon his return from injury, etc.
But if you are sitting pretty at 3-1 or 4-0, I don’t think going after Pittman makes that much sense. He is very much risk-reward, which might not be worth the headache given the struggles we’ve seen. Either way, Pittman’s value has been so suppressed that I think he’s at least worth throwing some offers out for. Again, aside from Richardson’s QB play, the Colts were running so few plays to start the season. That changed in Week 4 (64 plays run) and should increase with the upcoming schedule.
Drew Ogletree caught a TD on his lone catch for 15 yards.
It’s no coincidence that these Colts receivers’ most productive game came when Richardson was not the primary quarterback.
Week 5 at Jacksonville is promising, but it gets grim again with the Titans. The Dolphins and the Texans represent solid spots for him to be a fantasy producer in Weeks 7-8.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Hold Najee Harris | Buy George Pickens & Pat Freiermuth
Justin Fields completed 22 of 34 passes for 312 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 104.
Fields led the team with 55 yards on 10 carries (5.5 YPC) and two rushing touchdowns. Cordarrelle Patterson added 43 yards on six carries (7.2 YPC) before leaving with an injury, while Najee Harris contributed 19 yards on 13 carries (1.5 YPC). 69% snap share. The next RB on the depth chart is Aaron Shampklin. He’s a speed back.
Harris’s horrible performance reminds me why I didn’t want to draft him this season. Woof.
Harris and Josh Jacobs remain atop the list of RBs with the most red-zone opportunities without a touchdown score yet in 2024.
Still, he’s the last man standing against a depleted Cowboys defense. Unless he’s on your bench, you are starting him or trading for him on the cheap. Volume and matchup are favorable on his side.
George Pickens was the leading receiver, catching seven of his 11 targets for 113 yards and a touchdown (32% target share, five red-zone targets). Alpha production for an alpha wide receiver. That combo is always a buy.
Pat Freiermuth caught five passes on seven targets for 57 yards (20.5% target share), while Harris contributed 54 yards on six receptions from 6 targets (17.6% target share). Patterson caught two passes for 19 yards before he left the game.
The Steelers will face the Cowboys next, arguably the league’s run defense. Then it’s LV, NYJ, and NYG.
However, the Steel Curtain suffered another OL injury, losing guard James Daniels.
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Denver Broncos
Hold Javonte Williams | Add Troy Franklin & Audric Estime
Bo Nix completed 12 of 25 passes for 60 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 67.9. He also added three rushing yards on five carries. Nix had -7 yards at halftime. Yup.
In the rushing game, Javonte Williams led with 16 carries for 77 yards, while Jaleel McLaughlin contributed 46 yards on nine carries. Tyler Badie left the game with a back injury. The RB rotation went Williams-Badie-McLaughlin before the injury.
Courtland Sutton led the receiving corps, catching three of nine targets for 60 yards and a touchdown (36% target share). He was an air yards machine (157) but fell victim to having a rookie QB playing in the rain.
Javonte Williams added two catches on three targets for three yards while leading the backfield with a 57% snap share.
It was Williams’ best day as a Bronco by far, so that begs the question: Sell high? Williams has been on my sell list after a rocky start because his usage has been so unpredictable. And it wasn’t much different here; Williams just played much better. This didn’t go unnoticed by Sean Payton or his teammates.
McLaughlin said after the game that he knew Javonte Williams‘s success was coming. He expects that to continue, too. “We all believe in ‘Vonte.”
Considering Payton went back to Williams after a dreadful three-game stretch, there might be some sticking power here. With a reeling Raiders defense at home up next, I think I’ll stick with Williams one more week.
The Broncos running back is due for some TD regression (dating back to last season, even), with seven red zone carries and zero touchdowns.
However, I would not hesitate to add McLaughlin or rookie Audrice Estime, who might have had a bigger role in this offense had it not been for his injury in Week 1.
There is not much elsewhere, given that Nix only threw for 60 yards. Troy Franklin was second in targets (four with 62 air yards). Nice! For -2 yards. Not nice! Keep a close eye on Franklin in deeper formats. Usage is building. He was targeted on 50% of his routes in Week 4.
Josh Reynolds saw a season-low in route participation, falling dramatically behind Lil Jordan Humphrey.
Denver will play the Raiders at home, as well as the Chargers, Saints, and Panthers in their next four games.
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New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall | Hold Garrett Wilson | Add Braelon Allen | Sell Allen Lazard
Aaron Rodgers completed 24 of 42 passes for 225 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 72.0. Rodgers also rushed five times for 26 yards.
In the rushing game, Braelon Allen led with eight carries for 34 yards, while Breece Hall was held to just four yards on ten carries. Hall also saw five targets to Allen’s one while winning the snap battle 69% to Allen’s 36%. Similar to what the split has been so far this season.
This game was a slop fest in the rain. Hall couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Keep in mind that he only had one carry in the entire second half. He got stuffed twice from inside the Denver one-yard line.
Allen’s not going away. I think we can all see his talent. But I think an Allen backfield takeover based on this game is not one of my takeaways from Week 4. Hall still dominated the high-value touches in regard to targets, routes (nearly doubled Allen), and red-zone opportunities (three), two occurring from inside the 5-yard line.
How do you feel about Hall over the rest of the season?
I’m settling on him as a buy-low. Hall still ranks tenth in touches among running backs and number one in RB targets (24). Hall is pacing for over 100 targets (same as last season). Keep calm and Breece Hall on.
Mike Williams led the receiving corps, catching four of five targets for 67 yards (12% target share). Allen Lazard was targeted eight times, catching five for 58 yards (19% target share), while Garrett Wilson also had eight targets, catching five for 41 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Wilson lined up against Patrick Surtain II on 28 of his 46 routes (60.9%), hauling in two of his three targets for 22 yards with Surtain in coverage (five targets, three receptions, 19 yards against all other defenders).
Wilson’s first target against Surtain came with 1:42 left in the third quarter, which Wilson caught for a 21-yard gain. Surtain shadowed DK Metcalf (96%), George Pickens (65%), and Mike Evans (71%) in Weeks 1-3.
Tyler Conklin caught four passes for 17 yards on eight targets (19%).
The Jets will face the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Patriots again in Week 8. It’s not a great schedule by any means, so I wouldn’t go overboard looking to acquire anybody from Gang Green through trade other than Hall.
There’s a time and place to trade for Wilson, but not if you need wins right now. If you are 4-0, go get Wilson, with him slated for a HUGE second half.
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New England Patriots
Add Ja’Lynn Polk | Buy/Hold Rhamondre Stevenson
Jacoby Brissett completed 19 of 32 passes for 168 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, posting a passer rating of 70.8.
Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 13 times for 43 yards (3.3 YPC), with a long run of 13 yards. Stevenson caught four of five targets for 19 yards. He also fumbled again. Fourth straight game. Not great. 55% snap share.
But he can be bought dirt cheap with the idea he will be a strong option against Miami at home. When it comes to cheap running backs on bad teams, Stevenson is as good as it gets. He is in the top ten in touches, even after two bad games.
If Stevenson continues to struggle with ball security, he’s sunk. In this offense, he needs volume, just as fish need water. Without it, there’s no way he can make up ground in this horrible offensive environment.
It very much puts Stevenson in the “risky buy” category.
JaMycal Hasty rushed three times for 15 yards (5 YPC). Antonio Gibson carried the ball six times for 12 yards (2 YPC). Gibson caught three of four targets for 67 yards, averaging 22.3 yards per reception with a long catch of 50 yards.
Ja’Lynn Polk caught three of seven targets for 30 yards, with a long reception of 21 yards. 22% target share. This was by far Polk’s most involved game this season, and he’s looked better each coming week. Polk is hamstrung by the offense, but the skills are there. He had a great downfield grab that he was just ruled out-of-bound on.
I was also pleasantly surprised to see that Polk LED the Patriots in routes run (84%) and air yards 106, 63%)
Austin Hooper caught both of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown.
DeMario Douglas caught all three of his targets for 13 yards.
Hunter Henry caught two of three targets for 12 yards. Unlucky that Hooper came away with the score versus Henry. Henry’s a low-end TE streamer that fantasy managers should have no issues going away from for alternatives.
The Patriots will take on a much easier Miami Dolphins team in Week 5, but it’s followed up by the Texans, Jaguars, and Jets again in Week 8. If you want out of the Patriots (who doesn’t), wait till after they play the Dolphins to make the move. They lost two more starting offensive linemen against the 49ers – Caedan Wallace and David Andrews.
Although the juggernaut opening schedule is coming to a close, the Patriots have the No.3-ranked schedule for quarterbacks, per the FantasyPros SOS tool.
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San Francisco 49ers
Buy/Hold Jordan Mason | Buy Brandon Aiyuk | Hold Jauan Jennings
Brock Purdy completed 15 of 27 passes for 288 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, posting a passer rating of 89.7
Jordan Mason carried the ball 24 times for 123 yards (5.1 YPC) with one touchdown and a long run of 25 yards. Mason caught three of three targets for 37 yards. He’s a hold/buy for me because I have zero confidence that this Christian McCaffrey saga ends on a positive note. Mason is young and leads the NFL in rushing attempts (91) while ranking second in touches (97). I’m finding it hard to narrow my list of RBs I wouldn’t trade for Mason.
Deebo Samuel Sr. rushed two times for 14 yards (7 YPC).
Purdy ran five times for 11 yards (2.2 YPC).
Isaac Guerendo had one carry for no yards. He also lost a fumble on special teams.
Jauan Jennings caught three of six targets for 88 yards, averaging 29.3 yards per reception with a long catch of 45 yards. He led the team with a 22% target share despite just running a route on 60% of the dropbacks.
Deebo Samuel Sr. caught three of five targets for 58 yards, with a long reception of 53 yards (18.5% target share, two RZ).
Brandon Aiyuk caught two of five targets for 48 yards (18.5% target share, 90 air yards). Aiyuk’s production has been lackluster thus far, and I think a lot can be attributed to his missed time this offseason. In Aiyuk’s defense – pun intended – he drew the toughest matchup New England had to offer.
Per Next Gen Stats, Christian Gonzalez aligned to the boundary on 70% of his snaps in Week 4 after having done so on 37%-38% of his snaps in every other game this season.
Gonzalez lined up against Brandon Aiyuk on 13 of his 25 routes (52%) and pressed him on seven of 13 (54%). Aiyuk managed just one reception for 10 yards on two targets, with Gonzalez as the nearest defender. Gonzalez allowed just two receptions for 12 yards on five targets faced as the nearest defender.
But there’s no denying that he hasn’t looked like the WR the 49ers backed up the bank truck for. Meanwhile, Jennings looks like an emerging superstar.
He was the target leader in a game where he played with all the other 49ers playmakers healthy – aside from Christian McCaffrey. That’s not nothing. Purdy is looking for No. 15 when he’s running a route. I think Jennings is a buy/hold. We see guys from the 49ers offense miss time constantly. Now, it seems like he is fourth in the pecking order, but that could change quickly. He’s got immense upside in this offense attached to Purdy.
But that’s not to say Aiyuk isn’t also a buy. He’s not been himself, but we know the talent is there from last season. He will have his spike weeks at some point, but I don’t think his role in the offense truly reflects his role from a statistical standpoint. If you can buy low, great. Just don’t get carried away with selling the farm for Aiyuk. I still have confidence that however you acquire Aiyuk, you’ll be getting him during his upcoming best stretch of production.
You truly aren’t “buying low” unless it feels gross. Aiyuk kinda feels gross. Trust the process.
George Kittle caught all four of his targets for 45 yards and one touchdown over three Patriots defenders.
Kyle Juszczyk caught one of one target for 12 yards.
Chris Conley had no receptions on two targets.
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Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson & Elijah Higgins | Buy James Conner
Kyler Murray completed 16 of 22 passes for 142 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions with a passer rating of 104.7. Murray rushed once for three yards.
James Conner had 18 carries for 104 yards and one touchdown (5.8 YPC). Conner – like most aging RBs – is a ticking time bomb based on his injury track record.
Trey Benson rushed nine times for 51 yards (5.7 YPC). Four carries came as the clock expired at the end of the game.
Emari Demercado had four carries for 24 yards (6.0 YPC).
Marvin Harrison Jr. caught five of six targets for 45 yards and one touchdown (27% target share). He produced very quickly and was a non-factor for the rest of the game.
Greg Dortch caught all four of his targets for 38 yards (18% target share).
Michael Wilson caught three of seven targets for 38 yards (32% target share). The second-year wide receiver was surprisingly inefficient in such a great matchup. Targets and air yards were there (60% air yards share) for the taking, but to no avail.
Wilson has had a 28.5% target share over the last two weeks.
Elijah Higgins caught two of three targets for 12 yards (14% target share). It was mostly garbage time, but he took on the full Trey McBride role (89% route participation).
James Conner caught his lone target for nine yards.
Demercado caught one target for zero yards.
Man, this offense missed Trey McBride. What was projected to be a shootout turned into a one-sided blowout.
The Cardinals’ next two games are against the 49ers and Packers. These are great matchups for the passing game to get back on track. Buy low on some of these suppressed Cardinals players after a few duds from Murray.
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Washington Commanders
Buy Brian Robinson & Austin Ekeler | Add Jeremy McNichols | Hold Terry McLaurin | Add Noah Brown & Olamide Zaccheaus
Jayden Daniels completed 26 of 30 passes for 233 yards, one touchdown, and one interception with a passer rating of 96.3.
Brian Robinson had 21 carries for 101 yards and one touchdown (4.8 YPC). Robinson caught all three of his targets for 12 yards (10% target share).
Jeremy McNichols had eight carries for 68 yards and two touchdowns (8.5 YPC). McNichols caught one of one target for six yards (3% target share).
McNichols had a big role in this game in the absence of Austin Ekeler. Presuming Ekeler returns from his concussion soon, he’s a trade target for me. Ekeler looked great back from last year’s injuries, and this offense heavily involves the running backs. And if we saw Robinson miss time, Ekeler would be slated for an upside akin to his glory years with the Chargers.
Either way, this Commanders’ dynamic ground game should produce against the Browns. Per Next Gen Stats, the Raiders were effective rushing the ball outside of their lead back Zamir White, totaling six runs that resulted in a gain of 10 or more yards on only 10 attempts, including an 18-yard touchdown by wide receiver DJ Turner.
The Browns’ defense came into the game, having surrendered the 5th-most yards due to missed tackles (154). Their inability to bring down ball carries continued in Week 4 as they allowed 99 yards on 20 missed tackles, tied for the most of any defense in a game this season (Jets, Week 1).
Daniels also rushed eight times for 47 yards and one touchdown (5.9 YPC) in Week 4.
Olamide Zaccheaus caught all six of his targets for 85 yards (20% target share). The broadcast discussed wanting to use him more, which was super apparent. When he was on the field, he was being hyper-targeted. He ran just nine routes and was targeted on 66% of them. He was the team’s leading receiver at the half.
Terry McLaurin caught seven of 10 targets for 52 yards and one touchdown (33% target share, 40% target rate). The Commanders’ WR1 commanded over 100 air yards as the clear-cut No. 1.
Noah Brown caught three of four targets for 26 yards (13% target share).
Zach Ertz caught three of three targets for 22 yards (10% target share).
Luke McCaffrey caught one target for 17 yards (3% target share).
The Commanders will play the Browns and the Ravens in their next two games. From Weeks 7 to 8, it’s Carolina and Chicago.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Hold Travis Kelce & Xavier Worthy | Sell Chiefs RB
Patrick Mahomes completed 19 of 29 passes for 245 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with a passer rating of 89.
Kareem Hunt had 14 carries for 69 yards (4.9 YPC). Samaje Perine rushed five times for 14 yards and one touchdown (2.8 YPC). Hunt caught two of three targets for 16 yards while leading the backfield with a 45% snap share in his season debut. Perine was at 40%.
Perine scored, but I’m not convinced he’s the “goal-line back” over Hunt. Hunt had three straight touches from inside the Chargers’ 31 yard-line before Perine punched in the score.
Mahomes rushed five times for 12 yards (2.4 YPC).
Carson Steele rushed twice for six yards (3.0 YPC). He started, saw the first target of the game, and then fumbled. Steele caught one of three targets for no gain.
He had one more carry after that, and then it was curtains on his Week 4. This was his second fumble, but he paid the price with a hot seat on the bench this time. It remains to be seen whether this will be the norm in the future with Hunt fully in the fold.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is on track to return from the non-football illness list this coming week. This backfield might just be a giant mess with no clear-cut favorite. Still, I think Steele is worth the low-ball offer. He might even get dropped this week.
Hunt has to be added off waivers, but I’d immediately look to “sell high” on him if I acquire him. He has the most fantasy value based on our one game sample size from Week 4.
Travis Kelce caught seven of nine targets for 89 yards (31% target share). It was a great bounce-back effort for Kelce, who will have to shoulder a larger load with Rice out. His usage remains elite (91% route participation), and KC will have no choice but to feature him regardless of what defenses are doing.
Xavier Worthy caught three of four targets for 73 yards (14% target share), including a long touchdown pass from Mahomes. He led the WRs in routes run at 79%.
Worthy will need to take on a larger role with Rashee Rice hurt. Rice took a friendly fire hit after a Mahomes interception. Fear is a season-ending torn ACL injury.
Noah Gray caught all four of his targets for 40 yards (14% target share). He is a low-key winner in the Rice injury. He was targeted on 36% of his routes run in Week 4 and could see a larger role in the future. If you need a tight end, give Gray a shot.
Justin Watson caught two of three targets for 27 yards (10% target share).
Skyy Moore was targeted twice but had no receptions.
KC plays the Saints in Week 5 before a much-needed Week 6 bye week.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Buy J.K. Dobbins & Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston
Justin Herbert completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown, and one interception with a passer rating of 91.4.
J.K. Dobbins carried the ball 14 times for 32 yards (2.3 YPC). Dobbins caught all four of his targets for 30 yards (15% target share) while seeing a strong 71% snap share-back-to-back weeks where Dobbins has dominated the snaps and the touches. Once the Chargers get their OL healthy post bye week, Dobbins will be cooking. Buy low on the bye week.
Gus Edwards rushed six times for 19 yards (3.2 YPC).
Quentin Johnston had one carry for four yards.
Ladd McConkey caught five of seven targets for 67 yards and one touchdown (26% target share). He might be a sneaky trade target while on bye this week–27% target share this season.
Joshua Palmer caught three of four targets for 36 yards (15% target share).
Will Dissly caught two of three targets for 24 yards (11% target share).
Johnston caught one of five targets for nine yards (19% target share). He had some downfield shots (44.5% air yards share) but didn’t convert.
Hayden Hurst was targeted three times, catching one for six yards.
LA has a Week 5 bye. The remaining schedule is as follows: @ DEN, @ ARI, vs. NO, @ CLE, vs. TEN, vs. CIN, vs. BAL, @ ATL, @ KC, vs. TB, vs. DEN, @ NE, and @ LV.
Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Chargers have the worst-ranked schedule for QBs.
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Cleveland Browns
Buy Jerome Ford | Buy Amari Cooper & Jerry Jeudy | Hold D’Onta Foreman
Deshaun Watson completed 24 of 32 passes for 176 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with a passer rating of 84.9.
Jerome Ford rushed ten times for 58 yards (5.8 YPC), with a long of 35 yards. Ford caught all seven of his targets for 27 yards (22% target share). Remained a pseudo bell cow with a 78% snap share.
Watson carried the ball eight times for 32 yards (4 YPC).
D’Onta Foreman rushed four times for two yards (0.5 YPC). He’s not efficient at all, but he came in on two carries inside the 10-yard line, as he tends to do. This offense doesn’t generate enough red-zone trips to warrant holding Foreman tightly, especially with Nick Chubb‘s practice window opening soon.
Jerry Jeudy caught six of nine targets for 72 yards (19% target share).
Amari Cooper caught four of eight targets for 35 yards (25% target share). He had a long 82-yard TD wiped off the board because of a penalty. WOMP. There’s no experience like rostering Cooper in fantasy football.
Both Cooper and Jeudy saw nearly 100 air yards.
Tight end Blake Whiteheart caught all three of his targets for 13 yards and a touchdown (9% target share). Two red-zone targets for a tight end I didn’t know existed. He worked in a closer committee with Jordan Akins. David Njoku should be close to returning in Week 5.
The Browns will play the Commanders in Week 5. If there’s a time to buy low on the Cleveland passing game, it would be before this salivating matchup.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Sell Zamir White & Davante Adams | Add Alexander Mattison & Tre Tucker | Buy Brock Bowers & Jakobi Meyers
Gardner Minshew completed 14 of 24 passes for 130 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions and a passer rating of 73.3.
Alexander Mattison rushed five times for 60 yards (12 YPC), with a long of 24 yards.
Zamir White carried the ball 17 times for 50 yards (2.9 YPC). He also lost a fumble that went for a Browns touchdown. It’s too bad because White showed “some” promise with two carries inside the 10-yard line. Woof.
White dominated the snaps, but Mattison out-produced him for the fourth straight game.
D.J. Turner had one rush for 18 yards and a touchdown.
Tyreik McAllister rushed two times for 11 yards (5.5 YPC).
Brock Bowers rushed once for 12 yards.
Jakobi Meyers caught five of ten targets for 49 yards (42% target share, 52% air yards share, and two RZ). No Davante Adams (week-to-week with a hamstring injury), and Meyers immediately stepped into an alpha target role. This Adams saga cannot end well.
Tre Tucker caught five of six targets for 41 yards (25% target share) with a rushing touchdown.
Harrison Bryant caught both of his targets for 21 yards.
Brock Bowers caught two of three targets for 19 yards. Woof. No Davante Adams, no targets for Bowers. Make it make sense. Give the ball to the talent. The route participation was a season-high at 73%. Buy low.
Mattison and Zamir White were both targeted once but did not record a reception.
Las Vegas will face the Broncos and Steelers over the next two weeks. It will be interesting to see if Surtain travels with Meyers, presuming the Raiders do not have Adams.
After those two matchups, the Raiders play @ LAR, vs. KC, and @ CIN before a Week 10 bye week.
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Baltimore Ravens
Hold Derrick Henry | Buy Zay Flowers | Sell Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson completed 13 of 18 passes for 156 yards and two touchdowns, with a passer rating of 135.4.
Derrick Henry dominated with 24 carries for 199 yards, averaging 8.3 YPC, including a long run of 87 yards that was the game’s opening play. Henry had one catch on one target for 10 yards.
Lamar Jackson rushed six times for 54 yards, with a long run of 19 yards and one rushing touchdown.
Justice Hill added four carries for 18 yards, with a long run of 11. Hill also caught all six of his targets for 78 yards and one touchdown, with a long reception of 19 yards and 67 yards after the catch.
Isaiah Likely caught one of two targets for 26 yards.
Rashod Bateman caught one of two targets for 23 yards. He had another target in the end zone that fell short of a score.
Nelson Agholor caught two of three targets for 10 yards.
Zay Flowers had one reception on two targets for 10 yards.
Mark Andrews was targeted once but dropped the pass. Woof.
Jackson completed just four passes to WRs in Week 4.
Baltimore will face the Bengals and Commanders in the next two games, followed by the Buccaneers and Browns.
The sheer dominance of Henry and Jackson in the ground game has nuked the Ravens’ pass-catchers the last two weeks.
Last week, I cited that the Ravens receivers had suppressed betting prop lines because of Lamar Jackson‘s severe lack of passes in Week 3. It was the LOWEST number of attempts by the Ravens quarterback in any game in his entire career where he played the full game.
Week 4 was the fifth-lowest of his career.
The lack of passing volume will eventually regress to the mean in games where Baltimore isn’t so fortunate to play from ahead. They are facing two top offenses in the next two weeks, so you could see the passing game seeing more volume.
Flowers is an easy trade target as a result. He had a team-high 26% target share while leading the team in receptions.
As for Mark Andrews. Well, you can’t start him anytime soon. That’s pretty self-explanatory. Should you drop him outright? In shallow leagues where you might only roster one tight end, he’s a drop. But I still think Andrews has a place in deeper formats where you are streaming the position. Given his usage, playing time, and overwhelming lack of production, he’s at his rock-bottom floor at the moment. The game scripts haven’t helped. But Andrews dropping wide open passes isn’t helping either.
I want to be clear that you shouldn’t just cut Andrews because you’re tilting. He’s still a tight end (bad position) attached to an elite quarterback with a long track record of success. It cannot get worse for Andrews. But if you need to make a move for a starting tight end in Week 5, then Andrews is on the chopping block.
Note that at this point, Likely should be viewed ahead of Andrews. He’s already flashed a ceiling this season and has seen superior usage to Andrews.
Andrews ran a route on just 41% of the dropbacks. Identical to Agholor and fewer than Justice Hill. It was more than less week, but nowhere near where we want our fantasy tight ends. Even “if” the Ravens throw more, there’s no guarantee that Andrews is the main benefactor between Likely and Flowers based on how few routes he is running. His role is different from last season, so he’s not usable in fantasy until we see something otherwise.
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Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook & Khalil Shakir
Josh Allen completed 16 of 29 passes for 180 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, posting a passer rating of 73.9.
James Cook had nine carries for 39 yards, averaging 4.3 YPC with a long run of 7 yards. Cook caught his only target for 9 yards.
Allen rushed five times for 21 yards, averaging 4.2 YPC.
Ray Davis carried the ball seven times for 11 yards.
Curtis Samuel had one carry for 7 yards.
Ty Johnson rushed once for 3 yards and scored a rushing touchdown from inside the red zone.
Khalil Shakir caught four of five targets for 62 yards, with a long reception of 52 yards and 26 yards after the catch (18% target share).
Rookie Keon Coleman caught three of four targets for 51 yards, with a long catch of 24 yards. He made a couple of nice sideline catches.
Dalton Kincaid caught five of a team-leading seven targets for 47 yards, with a long reception of 25 yards and 33 yards after the catch. 24% target share and 33% target rate. Encouraging usage for the second-year tight end, who scored back in Week 3.
Curtis Samuel caught one of two targets for 8 yards.
Mack Hollins caught one of six targets for 5 yards (21% target share).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had no receptions on 1 target.
Dawson Knox had no receptions on one target.
Buffalo plays the Texans in Week 5, followed by the Jets, Titans, Seahawks, and Dolphins.
The Bills ran into a buzzsaw (Derrick Henry) on Sunday Night Football, and they just couldn’t match the Ravens’ production. But that hardly means the sky is falling on this offense. After a prime-time dud, all Bills should be at the top of your trade target lists.
Shakir leads the Bills through four games with a 19.4% target share. Coleman leads the Bills with a 22.3% air yards share (166).
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Miami Dolphins
Buy Dolphins
Tyler Huntley completed 14 of 22 passes for 96 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He had a completion percentage of 63.6%, a passer rating of 73.3, and averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. Huntley led the team in rushing, carrying the ball eight times for 40 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, with one rushing touchdown and a long run of 20 yards.
Rookie Jaylen Wright had nine carries for 32 yards, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards. Wright played 47% of the snaps with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert both injured.
Tyreek Hill had three carries for 19 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 16 yards.
Devon Achane had 10 carries for 15 yards (twice in the red zone), averaging 1.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 5 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Titans’ run defense shut down the Dolphins’ designed running game, limiting Dolphins’ ball carriers to 72 yards on 26 designed runs, -43 rushing yards over expected (the seventh-lowest by a defense in a game this season).
The Dolphins averaged -0.68 EPA-per-carry on designed runs, the fourth-lowest mark in a game this season. Despite trailing for most of the game, the Dolphins called more run plays (30) than pass plays (24) on the night.
Achane was targeted three times, catching one pass for 14 yards, with 21 yards after the catch. He finished third in the team in routes run. He also earned a 73% snap share.
Jaylen Waddle was targeted six times (27% target share), catching four passes for 36 yards, averaging 9 yards per reception, with a long reception of 18 yards and 24 yards after the catch.
Tyreek Hill was targeted seven times (32% target share), catching four passes for 23 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per reception, with a long reception of 17 yards and 6 yards after the catch. He had 129 air yards as Huntley missed him deep on a potential long touchdown. Woof.
Monday night was another disaster for Miami’s offense sans Tua Tagovailoa. The fantasy production is nuked even with more emphasis on Hill/Waddle.
So, what’s the approach? As of right now, you can barely start any Dolphins offensive players.
I still think they are buy-low targets because I still think Tua Tagovailoa returns this season, and that’s not necessarily the popular opinion. He has to miss at least the next two games before his earliest return in Week 8 when Miami hosts the Cardinals.
The Dolphins play the Patriots in Week 5 before they go on a Week 6 bye week. In Week 7 they will play the at the Colts.
Buying low on Dolphins is not what you do with the short term in mind. It’s 100% about the long haul and second half of the season.
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Tennessee Titans
Buy Tony Pollard | Drop/Hold DeAndre Hopkins & Calvin Ridley
Mason Rudolph completed nine of 17 passes for 85 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 67 and 5 yards per attempt.
Will Levis completed three of four passes for 25 yards with no touchdowns and one interception, resulting in a passer rating of 51 and 6.3 yards per attempt. Levis ran the ball twice for 5 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. He hurt his shoulder and did not return to the game. According to the head coach Brian Callahan, Levis is the starter if healthy.
Tony Pollard carried the ball 22 times for 88 yards, averaging 4 yards per carry, with a long run of 41 yards-60% snap share.
Tyjae Spears had 15 carries for 39 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 9 yards-42% snap share. Both Titans RBs scored rushing touchdowns on a combined 37 carries. Pollard dominated the carries inside the 20-yard line five to two over Spears.
Calvin Ridley had one rush for 10 yards.
DeAndre Hopkins was targeted four times (24% target share, 53% air yards share), catching two passes for 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 16 yards. He remained on a lowly snap count with just a 32% snap share. He played the fourth most snaps among Titan WRs and ranked fifth overall in the team in routes run.
Tyler Boyd was targeted twice, catching two passes for 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 27 yards and 12 yards after catch.
Tony Pollard was targeted twice, catching two passes for 20 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception, with a long reception of 16 yards and 23 yards after catch.
Treylon Burks was targeted once, catching one pass for 13 yards, with a long reception of 13 yards.
Calvin Ridley was targeted thrice (18% target share), catching one pass for five yards. He led the Titans in routes run.
Chigoziem Okonkwo was targeted once, catching one pass for five yards. Josh Whyle was targeted once, catching one pass for five yards. Tyjae Spears caught one pass for 4 yards on his lone target.
The Titans have a Week 5 bye week, giving Levis time to get healthy.
The rest of the schedule: vs IND, @ BUF, @ DET, vs NE, @ LAC, vs MIN, @ HOU, @ WAS, vs JAC, vs CIN, @ IND and @ JAC.
The Titans’ offense was an efficient rushing operation in Week 4, as they went extremely conservative passing the ball. Hopkins and Ridley can’t be trusted as anything more than WR4s. My only hesitation about dropping either guy is that a potential Hopkins trade to the Chiefs could be a major boost to their respective values. But in shallower leagues, they can be thrown back into the wild.
Also keep in mind that per the FantasyPros SOS tool, the Titans have the No.2-ranked schedule for QBs.
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Detroit Lions
Buy Lions
Jared Goff completed 18 of 18 passes for 292 yards, with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He had a perfect completion percentage of 100%, a passer rating of 155.8, and averaged 16.2 yards per attempt. He also caught a red-zone TD from Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jahmyr Gibbs carried the ball 14 times for 78 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards and two rushing touchdowns. He played 57% of the snaps but did not record a catch for the second straight week. The Lions have gone super run-heavy the last two games, and have benefitted from positive game scripts. The targets will come.
David Montgomery had 12 carries for 40 yards and one rushing touchdown, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Montgomery was targeted once, catching his lone pass for 40 yards, with 39 yards after the catch. It was one of the best plays in this game. Monty played 40% of the snaps.
Each Lions RB saw red-zone usage, with five carries for Gibbs and four for Montgomery.
Jameson Williams was targeted only twice, catching both passes for 80 yards, averaging 40 yards per reception, with a long catch-and-run 70-yard touchdown. He played 96% of the snaps. He’s been excellent in three of his four games this season. Buy high.
Sam LaPorta was targeted four times (18%), catching four passes for 53 yards, averaging 13.3 yards per reception, with a long reception of 30 yards and 59 yards after the catch. LaPorta entered the game with an ankle injury but did not appear limited, with an 89% snap share and 19 routes run (tied for second-most on the team). He was also targeted once in the red zone.
Tim Patrick was targeted twice, catching both passes for 52 yards, averaging 26 yards per reception, with a long reception of 29 yards and 30 yards after the catch.
Amon-Ra St. Brown was targeted six times (27% target share, two RZ), catching all the passes for 45 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 17 yards and 14 yards after the catch.
Brock Wright was targeted twice (one RZ), catching one pass for 13 yards.
Kalif Raymond was targeted once, catching one pass for 9 yards.
The Lions have a Week 5 bye week. If I can take on a bye week, I want these Lions on my roster. Per the FantasyPros SOS tool, it’s the No.2-ranked schedule for RBs.
After they return to action in Week 6, Detroit plays Dallas, Minnesota, and Tennessee.
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Seattle Seahawks
Hold/Sell Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Geno Smith completed 38 of 56 passes for 395 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He had a completion rate of 67.9%, a passer rating of 86.5, and averaged 7.1 yards per attempt.
Per Next Gen Stats, Kenneth Walker was efficient on the ground, rushing 12 times for 80 yards and three touchdowns (6.7 yards per carry), generating positive EPA on 6 of his 12 runs.
Walker was most efficient rushing from under center, finishing with 55 yards on six carries and 2 TDs (9.2 YPC) compared to 25 yards on six carries and a TD on shotgun runs (4.2 YPC).
Walker III was targeted five times, catching four passes for 36 yards, averaging 9 yards per reception, with a long reception of 13 yards and 42 yards after the catch.
Geno Smith had five carries for 38 yards, averaging 7.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 12 yards.
Zach Charbonnet had just two carries for 15 yards, averaging 7.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 12 yards.
The Seahawks returned to KW3 as the bell cow, playing 59% of the snaps.
DK Metcalf was targeted 12 times (21%, 133 air yards), catching seven passes for 104 yards, averaging 14.9 yards per reception, with a long reception of 29 yards and 34 yards after the catch.
Tyler Lockett was targeted nine times, catching five passes for 61 yards, averaging 12.2 yards per reception, with a long reception of 29 yards and 21 yards after the catch.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was also targeted 12 times (21%), catching eight passes for 51 yards, averaging 6.4 yards per reception, with a long reception of 11 yards and 22 yards after the catch. JSN led the Seahawks in 55 route runs. The eight catches are solid, but 51 yards is somewhat disappointing. Four weeks into the season, and JSN has been the clear No. 2 on Seattle’s offense. He has improved from last season but hasn’t quite taken that next step for a true breakout. He is still a hold because I think better games will come. However, I wouldn’t besmirch anyone from selling high after this 12-target game.
Zach Charbonnet was targeted five times, catching five passes for 39 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per reception, with a long reception of 16 yards and 28 yards after the catch.
Jake Bobo was targeted three times, catching three passes for 30 yards, averaging 10 yards per reception, with a long reception of 11 yards and 13 yards after the catch.
A.J. Barner was targeted twice, catching two passes for 27 yards, averaging 13.5 yards per reception, with a long reception of 18 yards.
Noah Fant was targeted twice, catching two passes for 26 yards, averaging 13 yards per reception, with a long reception of 13 yards.
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