After going 1-2 with the narrowest possible misses for my bold predictions in Week 6, I couldn’t sniff a correct selection in Week 7. With last week’s doughnut, my season line is 6-15 (.286). I’ve dipped below my season-long goal of a .333 hit rate. So, it’s an outstanding week to get back on track with my bold predictions.
- Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football Week 8 Bold Predictions
Javonte Williams is a Top-10 Running Back in All Scoring Formats in Week 8
The expert consensus rankings (ECR) have Javonte Williams as the RB17 in standard, the RB17 in half-point per reception and the RB16 in PPR. However, I’m considerably more bullish on his outlook, expecting a top-10 finish among running backs in all scoring formats.
Williams has taken a notable lead in Denver’s backfield and thrived after a slow start to the season. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), since Week 4, Williams has handled 49 of Denver’s backfield’s 79 rush attempts (62.0%) and run 64 routes versus 33 for Jaleel McLaughlin, 13 for fullback Michael Burton, three for Tyler Badie and zero for Audric Estime.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 42 running backs with at least 25 rush attempts since Week 5, Williams is 19th in rushing yards per game (62.3), 12th in yards per carry (5.08), 11th in yards before contact per attempt (2.39), 16th in yards after contact per attempt (2.69), tied for 15th in rushing touchdowns (two), 22nd in explosive run percentage (6.1%) and tied for ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.24).
Williams has provided value beyond his rushing, though. In the previous four games, he’s had 13 receptions (3.3 per game) and 89 receiving yards (22.3 per game).
Williams is in an eruption spot against Carolina’s pitiful run defense. According to Pro Football Reference, the Panthers have coughed up the most rushing yards per game (133.3), the most rushing touchdowns per game (1.86), 3.71 receptions per game and 27.4 receiving yards per game to running backs this year. They’ve turned opposing running backs into better runners than Derrick Henry (124.7 rushing yards per game this season) this year. I’d be less surprised by Williams finishing as the overall RB1 in all formats this week than as a fringe top-20 running back, where he falls in the ECR.
Cedric Tillman Outscores Jerry Jeudy in Week 8
Cedric Tillman had a career day last week, but the expert rankings aren’t buying it. Instead, Jerry Jeudy is ranked ahead of him in all scoring formats. Jeudy is the ECR WR39 in standard, WR40 in half PPR and WR41 in PPR, versus Tillman as the WR49, WR51 and WR49, respectively.
Tillman had tightrope surgery in September 2022. He was able to return to the field at the end of his final collegiate season. Unfortunately, Tillman had a quiet rookie season after the Browns picked him in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Could he have been still working his way back to complete health while adjusting to professional football? Maybe. Tony Pollard didn’t perform at his pre-surgery level in his first year after the procedure. Yet, Pollard is rounding into form this year after an encouraging conclusion to his 2023 campaign.
Regardless of why Tillman had a quiet rookie season, he exploded in the first game after the Browns traded Amari Cooper. In Week 7, Tillman had 12 targets, eight receptions and 81 receiving yards. Jeudy’s season highs for the Browns are six receptions (Week 4) and 73 receiving yards (Week 2). In the past three weeks, Jeudy has had 12 targets, three receptions and 69 receiving yards. Tillman’s outburst in Week 7 was better than Jeudy’s previous three performances combined.
In fact, Jeudy last reached Tillman’s 81 receiving yards in Week 3 of 2023, and he hasn’t had eight receptions in a game since Week 14 of 2022, the only time in 64 career games Jeudy has reached that threshold. At this point, Jeudy has established himself as mediocre at best and a below-average receiver in most contests. Tillman is a mystery box, making the most of an expanded role last week.
Jameis Winston completed five of 11 pass attempts last week for 67 yards and a touchdown. He completed one of four targets to Jeudy for 18 yards and one of two to Tillman for 25 yards. Moreover, Winston completed a two-point attempt to Tillman. The second-year wideout on the upswing is a more enticing fantasy option this week than the career-underachieving veteran.
At Least Six Tight Ends Will Score 12.0 Half PPR Points or More in Week 8
George Kittle (14.1 half PPR points per game) is the only tight end with over 12.0 half PPR points per game this year. Additionally, only three tight ends have reached at least 10.0 half PPR points per game this year.
However, a season-high nine tight ends reached at least 12.0 half PPR points in Week 7. Six tight ends hit that threshold in Week 5, and five reached those heights in Week 2, Week 4 and Week 6.
So, perhaps this isn’t the boldest prediction. Still, tight ends started slowly, and the consternation among gamers and analysts about the underperforming tight ends is palpable. The fantasy football season is long, and things are looking intriguing for players such as David Njoku, Hunter Henry and Cade Otton.
Brock Bowers is already a stud. Mark Andrews has risen from the ashes in the previous two weeks. Dalton Kincaid could benefit from a coverage-drawing wideout like Cooper. Kyle Pitts has flashed lately. Kittle should thrive without some of his target-hog teammates. Travis Kelce had encouraging efforts in Week 4 and Week 5, and, like Kincaid, he could benefit from more help at wide receiver after the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins. Week 8 will provide more reasons for optimism at tight end for the rest of the season after at least six tight ends score a minimum of 12.0 half PPR points this week.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
