Fantasy Basketball Draft Advice: 8 Overvalued Players to Avoid (2024)

The start of a fantasy basketball season is filled with excitement and opportunity, but avoiding overvalued players is crucial to keeping your draft on track. If you’re not careful, players hyped beyond their realistic value can drain your roster’s potential. This week’s goal is to highlight those overvalued picks that might not deliver on the expectations surrounding them.

Using historical data and current team dynamics, we’ll analyze key players and help you avoid overcommitting to risky assets. By refining your draft strategy now, you can prevent any costly missteps and set the foundation for a winning season. But first…

Fantasy Basketball Draft Strategy & Advice: 8 Sleepers to Target (2024)

• Identify Untapped Potential: Sleepers are often overlooked players who possess the talent and opportunity to outperform their current value. Stay sharp during the later rounds of your draft to seize these hidden gems.
• Watch for Emerging Roles: Many sleeper picks ascend due to changes in their role, whether through a team injury, trade, or the departure of a veteran. Assess how team dynamics could offer them new opportunities this season.
• Don’t Sleep on Breakouts: A key to sleeper success is timing. Drafting a sleeper at the right time, just before they break out, can give your roster an edge in crucial categories without overspending draft capital.
• Balance Risk and Reward: Sleeper picks come with uncertainty, but the potential upside can be game-changing. Keep a balance between riskier sleeper picks and more reliable players to round out your draft strategy effectively.
• Be Adaptable: As the season progresses, stay flexible and adjust your strategy based on sleeper performance and evolving team situations. A player’s sleeper status can shift quickly, and being proactive will ensure long-term success.

Now, let’s get to it.

Check out the latest fantasy basketball expert consensus rankings

Fantasy Basketball Overvalued Players to Avoid

Managing hype and avoiding overvalued players can be the difference between a good season and a championship run in fantasy basketball. As we gear up for this season, it’s crucial to stay sharp and not get caught overcommitting to players whose current value might not justify their draft price. By balancing expectations with team dynamics and historical data, you can navigate through the noise and build a winning roster. Let’s break down the overvalued players to avoid, ensuring you make smart decisions and don’t waste precious draft capital.

Fantasy Format

Scoring Type: Head-to-Head (Most Categories)

Player Stat Categories:

• Points Scored (PTS)
• Total Rebounds (REB)
• Assists (AST)
• Steals (ST)
• Block Shots (BLK)
• 3-Point Shots Made (3PTM)
• Field Goal Percentage (FG%)
• Free Throw Percentage (FT%)

Roster Positions:

• Point Guard (PG)
• Shooting Guard (SG)
• Guard (G)
• Small Forward (SF)
• Power Forward (PF)
• Center (C) x 2
• Utility (UTIL) x 2
• Bench (BN) x 2
• Injured List (IL) x 3

Data Sources

• NBA Player Stats: NBA.com – 2023-2024
• Draft Analysis: Yahoo!Sports – Draft Analysis – 2024-2025

Terms

Points

Steph Curry (PG, SG – GSW) | 26.4 PPG – Rank: 11th

Trouble in Paradise

Since their 2021 championship victory, the Golden State Warriors have faced significant internal challenges that have tested the strength of their team dynamic and competitive future.

Off-court controversies, leadership transitions, and the slow fade of the iconic Steph Curry-Draymond Green–Klay Thompson trio have created uncertainty about the franchise’s long-term direction.

Even though Curry remains one of the NBA’s most elite offensive players, these external pressures could impact his fantasy value heading into the 2024 season, as his workload increases and the team’s overall competitiveness comes into question.

The Opportunity Cost of a Legend

Curry posted an impressive 26.4 points per game last season, ranking 11th in the league, and he continues to thrive in key fantasy categories. However, his fantasy production in other areas, combined with the potential decline of the Warriors’ trajectory, could challenge his top-tier ADP.

Fantasy managers must carefully consider the opportunity cost of drafting Curry over other emerging stars who might offer more balanced production or align better with team needs. It’s essential to be strategic and explore alternatives as the Warriors’ future remains unclear.

Consider Instead

• Ja Morant (PG – MEM) | 25.1 PPG – Rank: 18th
• Trae Young (PG – ATL) | 25.7 PPG – Rank: 15th
• Cade Cunningham (PG, SG – DET) | 22.7 PPG – Rank: 29th

Assists

Kyrie Irving (PG, SG – DAL) | 5.2 APG – Rank: 45th

Short of Expectations

The Mavericks had high hopes after acquiring Kyrie Irving, but they ultimately fell short in their playoff run against the Celtics. Irving, known for his basketball brilliance, struggled to deliver a standout Finals performance.

While his partnership with Luka Doncic showed flashes of potential, Irving’s inconsistent role and identity within the team cast doubt on his long-term fantasy value. His 2023 season was filled with ups and downs, making his fantasy impact underwhelming compared to the expectations set by his illustrious career.

Irving’s fluctuating role and production throughout the season have left many questioning his stability as a reliable fantasy asset. Though teaming up with Doncic had promising moments, the lack of synergy and consistency made it difficult to see Irving as an integral and consistent piece of the Mavericks’ puzzle moving forward.

Do More With Less

Irving remains a dynamic playmaker, whether or not the ball is in his hands. His 5.2 assists per game ranked 45th in the league, but for him to maintain value, his ability to contribute without dominating possession may become increasingly important, especially alongside Luka Doncic.

While Irving has the talent to be a nightly fantasy contributor, his inconsistency in delivering a comprehensive performance makes him a riskier investment than his talent alone would suggest. Managers may want to proceed with caution when considering his draft position, as his fantasy returns could be less predictable than desired.

Consider Instead

• Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK) | 6.7 APG – Rank: 16th
• Cade Cunningham (PG, SG – DET) | 7.5 APG – Rank: 11th
• Dejounte Murray (PG, SG – NOP) | 6.5 APG – Rank: 20th

Rebounds

Deandre Ayton (C – POR) | 11.1 RPG – Rank: 7th

Rebuilding with Uncertainty

The Portland Trail Blazers are deep into a rebuild, stockpiling young talent, and navigating how best to deploy their roster. Deandre Ayton, once seemingly seen as the undisputed cornerstone of the team’s frontcourt player, now finds himself on a team that boasts a crowded room.

While Ayton can dominate the boards and deliver strong performances, his role is complicated by the rise of younger players like Donovan Clingan, Jabari Walker, Duop Reath, and Robert Williams III, all vying for significant minutes.

Ayton’s production is solid when healthy, but his frequent injuries often lead to slow returns to form. This creates a challenging scenario for fantasy managers, as Ayton may not always offer consistent availability or momentum, limiting his reliability.

Too Many Options

Portland’s frontcourt depth adds complexity to Ayton’s fantasy outlook. With numerous young, promising players, Ayton’s role could evolve, reducing his chances for heavy usage.

While Ayton’s proven skill set makes him an appealing fantasy pick, the competition for minutes with emerging talent like Clingan and Williams III could cap his ceiling, especially as the team seeks to balance development and veteran play.

Fantasy managers should also note the possibility that Ayton becomes a trade asset. His value to a rebuilding team could lead to limited opportunities, as Portland may prioritize grooming its younger big men. This reduced opportunity may result in less consistent contributions across categories.

Consider Instead

• Jalen Johnson (SF, PF – ATL) | 8.7 RPG – Rank: 24th
• Jalen Duren (C – DET) | 11.6 RPG – Rank: 5th
• Josh Hart (SG, SF – NYK) | 8.3 RPG – Rank: 29th

Steals

OG Anunoby (SG, SF – NYK) | 1.4 SPG – Rank: 21st

More Than a Specialist

OG Anunoby has firmly established himself as a crucial defensive asset for the Knicks, especially following his trade. His ability to average 1.4 steals per game, ranking 21st in the league, adds significant value for fantasy managers targeting defensive categories.

However, despite the team moving players like Donte DiVincenzo and Julius Randle, Anunoby’s fantasy appeal may still be limited due to health concerns and his more conservative role in an evolving Knicks roster.

Anunoby’s impact on the defensive end is undeniable, but his overall fantasy return could be hindered by the team’s cautious approach. His role, while important, might not expand enough to justify an early-round selection.

For managers seeking consistent, all-around contributions, there may be better late-round options that provide more balanced production across categories.

Consider Instead

• Chris Paul (PG – SAS) | 1.2 SPG – Rank: 39th
• Amen Thompson (PG, SG, SF – HOU) | 1.3 SPG Rank: 30th
• Alex Caruso (PG, SF – OKC) | 1.7 SPG – Rank: 8th

Blocks

Jaren Jackson Jr. (PF, C – MEM) | 1.6 BPG – Rank: 13th

Derailed Greatness

The Memphis Grizzlies were poised to continue their ascent as one of the NBA’s most electrifying teams, but 2023 proved to be a year full of disruptions. From losing their franchise player to off-court issues and injuries to a string of setbacks that affected every facet of the team, the Grizzlies’ momentum was derailed.

Still, there remains hope that this is merely a short detour in their return to the top. A key part of their success has been Jaren Jackson Jr., a two-way talent whose defensive prowess, particularly his ability to protect the rim, shines.

Averaging 1.6 blocks per game—13th in the league—Jackson’s impact on both ends of the floor is undeniable. His defensive capabilities are a cornerstone of his value, especially in fantasy basketball.

New Competition

However, with Jackson’s impressive production comes concerns, particularly his 3.6 personal fouls and 2.4 turnovers per game, which could limit his time on the court. The arrival of Zach Edey, a dominant force drafted ninth overall by the Grizzlies, adds new competition.

Edey’s impressive collegiate stats—25.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks per game—demonstrate that he could potentially replicate Jackson’s role, possibly even with fewer risks.

Though Jackson remains a key player for the Grizzlies, this added competition and his foul trouble may give fantasy managers pause. While his value may not diminish entirely, the risks could outweigh the rewards at his elite-level ADP. Fantasy managers should consider these factors when deciding whether to invest heavily in Jackson for the upcoming season.

Consider Instead

• Nic Claxton (C – BKN) |2.1 BPG – Rank: 8th
• Kristaps Porzingis (PF, C – BOS) |1.9 BPG – Rank: 9th
• Isaiah Hartenstein (C – NYK) |1.1 BPG – Rank: 25th

Three-Pointers Made

CJ McCollum (PG, SG – NOP) | 3.6 3PG – Rank: 3rd

Conservative Competition

The Pelicans have faced difficulties sustaining momentum in the fiercely competitive Western Conference, and CJ McCollum’s offensive output has reflected that. Once a dominant scorer during his time in Portland, McCollum has struggled to fully reignite that spark in New Orleans.

McCollum averaged 16.0 field goal attempts and 8.4 three-point attempts per game, which looks solid on paper, but with new competition for usage, with players like Dejounte Murray McCollum’s opportunities could decline significantly.

Despite ranking third in the league with 3.6 three-pointers made per game, much of his production could be circumstantial rather than intentional. His at-times conservative play has limited his ability to consistently drive the offense forward, particularly in a lineup where Brandon Ingram remains the primary offensive focus.

Even with the volume of shots he takes, McCollum’s production may not reach the same level of return as in his previous years. His role may shift more toward being a disciplined facilitator rather than the offensive playmaker we’re used to seeing.

A Better Option

On a team like the Pelicans, which needs offensive firepower to keep pace with teams like the Mavericks and Nuggets, McCollum may not hold the same value he once did. For comparison, Dejounte Murray, who wasn’t the clear second option on his team last season, still managed 18.8 field goal attempts and 7.1 three-point attempts per game. This reflects a much more aggressive offensive role that McCollum may not have the opportunity to replicate.

As McCollum’s role evolves, he may become more of a floor facilitator than a high-volume shooter, which could limit his upside in fantasy drafts. Managers should carefully weigh the risk of picking him over other explosive options. Being too quick to secure his production might cost you the chance at players with higher ceilings in categories beyond just three-pointers.

Consider Instead

• Donte DiVincenzo (SG, SF)| 3.5 3PM – Rank: 4th
• Anfernee Simons (PG, SG – POR) | 3.4 3PM – Rank: 6th
• Coby White (PG, SG – CHI) | 2.6 3PM – Rank: 33rd

Field-Goal Percentage

Desmond Bane (SG, SF – MEM) | 46.4% – Rank: 237th

Trying Time for a Special Talent

The Memphis Grizzlies are currently facing significant hurdles, and their recovery will require more than just mental fortitude—it’s their physical struggles that are really holding them back.

Among their key players, Desmond Bane has been a standout, showcasing offensive skill and utility that keeps fantasy managers interested. Despite shooting just 46.4% from the floor this season, his lowest mark yet, he remained a valuable contributor under challenging circumstances.

As the team navigates through these difficult times, Bane’s potential is still evident. However, with the Grizzlies expected to return key players like Ja Morant and Marcus Smart, and with the addition of new talent like Zach Edey, Bane’s role could evolve in ways that might impact his overall value.

While he has shown enough to earn a strong ADP, there’s a potential risk that reintegrating the lineup could affect his scoring opportunities and efficiency.

Strength in Numbers?!

With several young players stepping up throughout the season, like Scotty Pippen Jr., GG Jackson II, and Vince Williams Jr,  the Grizzlies have demonstrated depth. But as the roster gets healthier, Bane may find himself sharing the spotlight.

This season was essentially a “tryout” for many on the team, and as the Grizzlies reintegrate their stars and recalibrate their lineup, it’s unclear how much offensive load Bane will carry.

Despite being a solid contributor with an elite ADP projection, Bane’s value could fluctuate due to the uncertainties surrounding the team’s rotations and strategies. The upcoming season could either cement his role or introduce new challenges that may impact his fantasy production.

Consider Instead

• Jonathan Kuminga (PF, GSW) | 52.9% FG% – Rank: 104th
• Dejounte Murray (PG, SG – NOP) | 45.9% FG% – Rank: 261st
• Jalen Johnson (SF, PF – ATL) |51.1% FG% – Rank: 123rd

Free-Throw Percentage

De’Andre Hunter (SF, PF – ATL) | 84.7% FT% – Rank: 121st

Anticlimactic Climb

The Atlanta Hawks have yet to reach the next level in their evolution as a team since their stunning defeat of the Sixers in the 2021 Eastern Conference semi-finals. Even with the addition of a versatile player like Dejounte Murray, the anticipated breakout didn’t materialize as expected.

Now, with Murray leaving for the Pelicans, the Hawks are once again at a crossroads. The silver lining is that young talent continues to emerge, giving the team a brighter future, but veterans like De’Andre Hunter still have important roles to play.

Hunting for Value

De’Andre Hunter proved to be a steady, multi-category contributor this past season. His free-throw percentage, a solid 84.7% on 3.4 attempts per game, ranked 121st in the league and made him a valuable asset for managers seeking consistent production in niche categories.

Hunter’s value lies in his ability to offer reliable stats across several categories, which provides extra utility in weekly matchups.

However, fantasy managers should remain cautious. Hunter has demonstrated a pattern of boom-or-bust tendencies, sometimes coming up short when needed most. While he offers potential upside later in the draft, overcommitting too early based on his promise could lead to unnecessary stress if his production falters at key moments.

He may not be your early-round solution, but he’s a solid depth piece that can round out your lineup if approached strategically.

Consider Instead

• Collin Sexton (PG, SG – UTA)| 85.9% – Ranked: 94th
• Tobias Harris (SF, PF – DET)| 87.8% – Ranked: 68th
• Dennis Schroder (PG – BKN)| 83.6% – Ranked: 132nd