Hello and welcome to the Week 6 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
• Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways

Team Pace and Plays

• This weekend we get a thrilling AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Broncos. In case you missed it, the Chargers are in the very bottom-left portion of the chart, meaning they’re playing extremely slow and their play volume is severely lacking. The chart above only consider above only considers pace for plays in which the clock is running, and the clock is running often for the Chargers with their -10.5% pass rate over expected (2nd-lowest in the league). Now, they’ll face a Broncos defense that has performed much better than expected. Denver’s defense currently ranks third in EPA per play allowed, third in success rate allowed, and first in explosive play rate allowed. The Chargers’ offense, with its heavy run lean, barely produces explosive plays with a 7.7% rate (28th in the league). I don’t see many outcomes in which this is a high-scoring game, and I certainly don’t expect the scoring to come from the Chargers’ side with both of their tackles (Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt) dealing with injuries.
  • Action: bet the Chargers team total under 19.5 points (-110 or better)

Team Pass Rates

• The Saints have really only thrown the ball when absolutely forced to this year. So far this year, only four teams are averaging fewer pass attempts per game than the Saints. Now, it looks like starting quarterback Derek Carr will miss some time. When Jake Haener entered the game Monday night in relief of Carr, the Saints dropped back on every play, but that was because they were down multiple scores with less than three minutes to go. In fact, Monday night was actually the first time this year the Saints had a positive PROE, but that could have been due to the lack of success they got in the rushing game. The lever that I could see New Orleans pulling more is of the Taysom Hill variety. If he is able to return from injury this week, I could see him being used a bit more. All this to say, the most glaring buy opportunity is Alvin Kamara, who failed to reach 20 total opportunities in a game. The efficiency of the offense is sure to go down, but with matchups against the Buccaneers, Broncos, and Chargers coming up, it’s unlikely that Kamara would see decreased usage because of the game script.
  • Action: buy Alvin Kamara, buy Taysom Hill (if healthy)

Running Back Usage

• Last week I wrote about Jacksonville’s receiver room, but now I want to direct your attention to their backfield. The reason is that we saw a pretty big shift in usage between Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne. For the first time this season, Bigsby had more snaps and opportunities than Etienne. In fact, we’ve seen Eteinne’s snap share decrease in each of the past four games. The bright side for Etienne is that he still has a hold on the high-value touches as he’s had at least five of them in three games this year while Bigsby has just five total this year (two in Week 4 and three in Week 5). After the game, when asked about the backfield, Doug Pederson said, “Travis is our guy. Tank had a good game, that’s just the way games go.” Etienne also had a 40% routes run rate for the fourth time this season this past week while Bigsby has yet to eclipse a 25% rate. Notably, D’Ernest Johnson ran a route on 29% of dropbacks this week, his highest all year. Ultimately, I think we’re just going to see more of a timeshare as opposed to Etienne having a workhorse role like last year. If there’s someone who’s willing to trade for Bigsby at an RB2 price, however, I’m selling him as I don’t see him as much more of a mid-tier RB3 at best given he hit a ceiling outcome against Indy.
  • Action: sell Tank Bigsby, hold Travis Etienne
• With Devin Singletary out, Tyrone Tracy was thrust into a bell-cow role with 20 total opportunities. With that, he totaled 130 yards from scrimmage and likely earned himself a bigger role even when Singletary returns. Unfortunately, when the Giants got close to the end zone, New York turned to Eric Gray as he got all three of the carries inside the five (which made up 75% of his carries as he only had four all game). Still, Tracy averaged 2.6 rushing yards over expected per carry (per Next Gen Stats), which ranks as the 22nd-best game by a running back this year in that metric. Tracy also reached a 44% routes run rate, the third-highest rate by a Giants back so far this year. Though I mentioned this performance should increase Tracy’s workload when Singletary returns, I would expect this to remain a committee of some sort. If you’ve added Tracy then he’s worth holding on to, but I also wouldn’t go out sending trade offers for him without knowing what a workload split might look like going forward with those two.
  • Action: hold Tyrone Tracy
• Ahead of Sunday’s game, Jerod Mayo declared that Rhamondre Stevenson would demoted to RB2 and Antonio Gibson would be the starting running back. Apparently, Stevenson took that personally and had himself a great game with 89 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. Most importantly, he didn’t fumble the ball. That said, Stevenson did see a 47% snap rate, his second-lowest in a game this season. Over the last three games, his snap rate has decreased to 49%, down from 75% in the first two games. Conversely, Gibson’s 47% snap share on Sunday was a season-high, though he was only given seven opportunities, tied for the fewest he’s gotten in a game this season. Stevenson’s 16 opportunities, while his lowest in a game that he’s fully played, are quite incredible for someone who was demoted. His (and the Patriots’) outcomes could change now that Drake Maye is starting, but it sure seems like Stevenson is at least the 1A in this backfield.
  • Action: hold Rhamondre Stevenson

Wide Receiver Usage

• On Sunday night, we were presented with a very peculiar situation in which George Pickens ran a route on just 63% of Pittsburgh’s dropbacks. This being his second-lowest rate of the year isn’t the odd part, it’s Mike Tomlin’s explanation for it. After the game, Tomlin shared, “We just wanted to kind of minimize his reps in an effort to get more productivity…we did want to cut his reps a little bit, in an effort to get higher quality play, just in general.” Look, I’m all for quality over quantity depending on the circumstance, but how does taking one of your best playmakers off the field help your offense? In any case, I think this adds further volatility to Pickens’ potential production. One beneficiary of Pickens’ decreased usage was Calvin Austin, who saw a season-high 78% routes run rate, though he only saw two targets and has eclipsed that number in just one game this season. With a bottom-six pass rate over expected, volume will continue to be hard to come by. If Pickens goes off for a massive game, I’d be more than willing to sell high.
  • Action: hold George Pickens (and sell after a big game)
• Coming off of an exhilarating Thursday night victory, Atlanta’s pass-catching group deserves a little attention. Some caveats apply with the target volume from this game as Atlanta threw the ball a whopping 56 times (excluding spikes) in their overtime win. But, with how poor Atlanta’s defense has been, more high-volume passing games could be in store for this team. What makes this receiver room great to target (pun intended) is that it’s a very tightly concentrated group of receivers. Atlanta is using 11 personnel very frequently with Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud all running routes on over 90% of the team’s dropbacks and each has a target share of at least 19%. McCloud is the clear WR3, but I think the gap between London and Mooney is closer than people think as they both have a solid 0.60 WOPR this year. Fortunately for managers with London, he’s been dominating red zone work with seven red zone targets, tied for the sixth-most in the league. I will mention that KhaDarel Hodge did get two targets against the Buccaneers (including the game-winning touchdown), but he’s on the very outside looking in. I’m in on this passing attack right now and think we’re finally starting to see the potential ceiling that exists with them.
  • Action: hold Drake London, buy Darnell Mooney, add Ray-Ray McCloud
• The Arizona Cardinals’ wide receiver room is very clearly highlighted by Marvin Harrison Jr. His start has been a bit of a rollercoaster with three games of at least 13 Half-PPR points and two games with fewer than five, slotting him at WR25 on a points-per-game basis. While I believe that he’s the WR1 in that offense, Michael Wilson has steadily been making some ground and solidifying his role as the team’s WR2. Wilson has operated in the intermediate part of the field a bit more with an 11.4-yard ADOT compared to a team-leading 14.2-yard ADOT for Harrison. Over the last three games, Wilson has just two fewer total targets than Harrison. Obviously, the production hasn’t quite been there for Wilson as he’s topped 50 receiving yards just twice and only has one touchdown. Still, with a 19% target share and 80% routes run rate, Wilson could fill in well as a bye-week replacement if you’re in a pinch.
  • Action: hold Marvin Harrison Jr., add Michael Wilson

Tight End Usage

• Let’s talk about Zach Ertz (this is not something I thought I’d be writing in 2024). This past week, he had a season-high eight targets for an astounding 30% target share. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much with it as he caught only two of them for 10 yards. But, his 18% target share and 0.4 WOPR are both second on the team. Ertz also has yet to find the end zone but has a team-high five targets in the red zone, so those are bound to come. With bye weeks becoming an issue, there are worse options you could find and I would much prefer to attach myself to a tight end on an offense as elite as Washington’s.
  • Action: add Zach Ertz
• It’s high time we revisit the Dalton Kincaid situation. The peripherals continue to look solid as his routes rate jumped up above 70% in Week 5 for the first time since Week 2 and he’s been targeted at least five times in each of the past three games. His 19% target share is tied for the highest on the Bills, but this is much lower than you’d hope for a team without any true alpha receivers. Furthermore, Buffalo continues to spread the ball around a ton, and his ceiling is severely limited by how little the Bills throw the ball. Kincaid has yet to top 50 receiving yards, a number he hit in six of the final 13 games that he played last year. You should still hold him because a healthy tight end averaging nearly five targets per game is solid, but I’m not buying stock.
  • Action: hold Dalton Kincaid

Quick Hops

• Rico Dowdle had a season-high 71.4% running back rush share against the Steelers, which was a season-high for him. He has still topped out at just a 50% snap share, but he’s quickly establishing his role as the primary back in Dallas.
• In Jonathan Taylor‘s absence, Trey Sermon recorded 10 high-value touches, just the third time that a running back has hit that count in a single game this year. He’ll be an RB2 as long as Taylor is out.
• Since returning from injury in Week 3, Josh Downs has a 29% target share, good for 10th-best among wide receivers in that span.
• Colby Parkinson has six targets in the red zone, the 2nd-most among all tight ends. He hasn’t scored a single touchdown yet this season. If he gets dropped going into the bye, keep an eye on him to add him back after that.