FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. (There’s a bonus IDP stat this week.) Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 7
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
The Cowboys are throwing at the second-highest rate (65.6%) in the NFL through six games. The problem is they are inefficient through the air and finished Week 6 at 25th in EPA/pass (-0.16). The inefficiency stems from Dak Prescott‘s interceptions, sacks and a lack of separation from this Dallas receiving group. Prescott has thrown six interceptions and been sacked 16 times, the seventh-most across the NFL this season. The Cowboys’ average target separation (2.9) is the second-lowest in the league.
Prescott needs help from someone other than CeeDee Lamb on the outside, and the Cowboys need to improve in protection to replicate their offense from this past season. Lamb should be fine in fantasy lineups moving forward and both Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson are worth rostering due to the massive throwing volume from this team. Prescott must clean it up for this unit to make any noise though, his completion percentage (62.9%) is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year in 2017.
Drake Maye put up 21.5 fantasy points last week in his first NFL start, finishing QB10 in fantasy scoring for the week. It’s not always going to be pretty for Maye as a passer. While he threw three touchdown passes last week, he also threw two interceptions and had some bad misfires in his first few series. But Maye had 38 rushing yards last week, and I thought that was almost a disappointing total for him. Maye has substantial weekly rushing potential. Although I think Maye is a risky start this week, he’s playable for fantasy managers who are in a pinch at quarterback. He gets a nice matchup against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks last in the league in DVOA and is giving up a league-high 24.1 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
The Rams come out of their bye week and much attention will be paid to what kind of snap share rookie Blake Corum can leverage after seeing his first meaningful snaps on the other side of the bye week. Kyren Williams, for his part, has gotten stronger as the season has gone on, seeing his yards per carry jump from 2.9 over the first three weeks to 4.8 over his last two games.
Williams also has at least one rushing touchdown in every game and added a receiving touchdown, too. Williams is the only running back averaging over 80% of their team snaps, sitting at 84%, 5% clear of the next nearest back. This week’s matchup with the Raiders is far from ominous. Las Vegas ranks 28th in DVOA against the run and allows the ninth-most RB fantasy points, including giving up a top-12 finish in each of their last three games.
Cardinals Running Backs
On Sunday, it went slightly under the radar that Cardinals running back James Conner suffered an ankle injury against the Packers. This led to season-low marks in usage for Conner and opened up the door for Emari Demercado to step in. Demercado played a season-high 53% of snaps and was given 11 total opportunities. Most encouraging is that five of those 11 opportunities were high-value touches.
Despite Conner’s injury, rookie Trey Benson still struggled to see the field with just a 19% snap rate. He’s been given 12 (Week 2) and nine (Week 4) opportunities previously but those were two blowout games. Notably, Demercado also ran a route on 53% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks against Green Bay, which is the second-highest mark for a Cardinals running back in a single game this season. If Conner were to miss time, Demercado is the clear number one option with Benson likely just filling in.
Chase Brown hasn’t been a mainstay in the top 10 running backs this year. Instead, he was the RB5 in standard (21.2), the RB5 in half-point per reception (22.2) and the RB6 in PPR (23.2) in Week 4 and tied for the RB10 in PPR (16.4) in Week 5. The tide might be turning in Cincinnati’s backfield toward their explosive second-year running back.
According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 51 running backs with at least 35 rush attempts this year, Brown is tied for fifth in yards per carry (5.55), tied for eighth in explosive run percentage (7.8%), tied for second in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.31), ninth in yards before contact per attempt (2.57), tied for 10th in yards after contact per attempt (2.98) and has the second-lowest stuff percentage (31.4%). Moss has been a below-average runner in all those metrics.
Cincinnati’s backfield’s rushing split has tilted toward Brown lately, with the second-year pro rushing 37 times versus 30 for Moss since Week 4. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Moss played 76 passing snaps and ran 57 routes during that period compared to 41 and 39 for Brown. Nevertheless, Brown’s stock is rising.
The speedy running back also has favorable betting info and a decent matchup this week. The Bengals are 5.5-point favorites. In addition, per Pro Football Reference, the Browns have surrendered 90.8 rushing yards per game at 4.5 yards per carry to running backs this year. More interestingly, they’ve coughed up six rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. Brown has an expert consensus rankings (ECR) of RB23 in standard, RB21 in half-PPR and RB20 in PPR this week. I’m more bullish about Brown’s outlook and believe he’ll finish as a top-10 running back in all formats against a Browns team playing out the string already.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
Last year, Brandon Aiyuk was the WR14, averaging 13.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game. By comparison, he is the WR45, averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game this season, totaling 7.3 or fewer in all but one game. Yet, Aiyuk has averaged more targets per game this year (6.8) than last season (6.6). However, his efficiency has fallen off a cliff. After averaging 3.27 yards per route run and 0.52 fantasy points per route run in 2023, the veteran has averaged 1.85 and 0.25 in 2024, per Fantasy Points Data.
Meanwhile, Aiyuk has an awful matchup this week. The 49ers face the Chiefs in a Super Bowl rematch, where the star receiver had three receptions on six targets for 49 receiving yards (6.4 fantasy points). Kansas City has shut down opposing wide receivers despite losing L’Jarius Sneed in the offseason. They have held wide receivers to 22.7 fantasy points per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase had only 5.5 fantasy points against the Chiefs earlier this season. Expect a similar stat line for Aiyuk on Sunday.
It is sometimes hard to tell fantasy managers which receiver is the one to target for fantasy start sit decisions. However, this week it appears Quentin Johnston is the one to fire up and start.
Johnston is up against Starling Thomas, who is tied for the ninth-most fantasy points allowed (0.35) on routes run against him. Johnston is scoring 0.36 fantasy points per route run.
With Gus Edwards on injured reserve (IR), Justin Herbert threw the ball 34 times last Sunday. This was the most he has thrown the ball so far this season, eclipsing the 27 pass attempts he mustered against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 4.
With potentially more targets and a good matchup, Johnston is a Flex-worthy play this week for fantasy managers.
Garrett Wilson’s stock takes a hit with the arrival of Davante Adams. The question is, how much? Wilson is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 29.3% target share, a 35.8% air-yard share, a 35.7% first-read share and producing 1.77 yards per route run (YPRR). Well, we know those market share metrics will be impacted. We’ll have to see by how much, though. Wilson leads the NFL in red-zone targets. He faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has the second-highest rate of single-high (68.2%).
Against single-high, Wilson’s market share and efficiency numbers look nearly identical to his overall stats. Wilson is a WR2 this week, as we see how the work will be split up between him and Adams. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
George Kittle is already a must-start tight end, but this matchup is so good it’s worth emphasizing. The Chiefs’ defense allows 14.3 points per game to opposing tight ends. The Rams are second at 12.8, while no other team is even at 11.0. Kansas City’s defense also ranks first by a wide margin in both receptions (7.4) and yards (81.8) allowed per game to opposing tight ends. Fire up Kittle with confidence in this Super Bowl rematch.
I think we need to question how healthy Sam LaPorta is right now. Even in the first half of last week’s game, before Detroit had blown Dallas’ doors off, LaPorta only had a 56% route share. That’s puzzling. Overall this season, he has a 66% route share, a 9.2% target share, 1.79 yards per route run (YPRR) and a 9.3% first-read share. These aren’t the type of numbers that we thought we would be getting this season.
LaPorta has been quite good when targeted, but Jameson Williams‘ ascension and breakout season are what has crushed him. Also, Detroit’s love for leaning on the run game this season. LaPorta could have a bounceback game this week against a defense that has allowed the 12th-most receptions and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
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