The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

• KC -7.5, O/U 40
• Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game looks gross from a play-volume standpoint. The Chiefs have been a boring bunch, ranking 18th and 15th in neutral pace and passing rate. The Bolts have been predictable as they rank third-slowest in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Rashee Rice

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey has been the Chargers’ real WR1, but it just hasn’t amounted to a ton of production. He has a team-leading 25.8% target share and 30.7% air-yard share with a 28.9% first-read share (second) producing 1.95 YPRR. McConkey is the WR53 in fantasy. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). McConkey’s numbers have slipped some against two high with only 1.05 YPRR and a 20% first-read share. He could get a small boost this week as teams have targeted the slot against Kansas City. The Chiefs have faced the third-most slot targets, allowing the fourth-most receptions and the 10th-most receiving yards to inside receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Justin Herbert (QB)

Herbert re-aggravated his high ankle issue last week. He’s uncertain to play this week, so we need a week of practice reports to determine his Week 4 status. I’m not adamant about playing a limited quarterback in a run-first offense even if he does suit up. Kansas City ranks 15th in yards per attempt, 16th in CPOE, and have given up the 11th-most fantasy points passing.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

Dobbins has played at least 58% of the snaps in two of his three games this season, averaging 16.3 touches and 108 total yards. He is the RB14 in fantasy points per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks fourth in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. The mauling offensive line that he has been running behind is battered, which will affect him in Week 4. Dobbins looks to have a tough Week 4 upcoming against a Chiefs’ run defense that has held rushers in check with the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Carson Steele (RB)

Steele was the clear lead back last week for Kansas City with a 64% snap rate, 77% of the rushing snaps, 55% of the passing down snaps, and 67% of the red zone snaps. He finished with 18 touches and 74 total yards as the RB36 for the week. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt. Steele has a horrible matchup this week on the ground, so he’ll need a touchdown to likely pay off this week. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest rushing success rate.

Samaje Perine (RB)

Last week, Perine played only 38% of the snaps with nine touches, 40 total yards, and a 33% red zone snap rate. With a horrible matchup on the ground this week for the Chiefs and Perine looking like the clear RB2 on this depth chart, he’s not startable. The Chargers have allowed the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate, the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, and the second-lowest rushing success rate. Perine is even droppable depending upon your waiver wire options, as Kareem Hunt could eventually eat into Perine’s role.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Edwards saw his snap share fall to 35% last week with only three carries for nine yards. This week’s state line might not be too much better. This is Dobbins’ backfield and we could see Kimani Vidal start to eat into Edwards’ workload in the coming weeks. Edwards is droppable.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Worthy has remained a full-time player in the Chiefs’ offense with a 67% route share, but he hasn’t been utilized much as it has been Rashee Rice‘s world, and everyone else is just living in it. Worthy has had a 12% target share, a 27.6% air-yard share, 1.16 YPRR, and a 15.9% first-read share. The Bolts have the fifth-highest two-high rate this season (61.5%). Worthy’s usage hasn’t seen much of a bump against two-high outside of his first-read share, increasing slightly to 17.9%. Worthy will run about 68% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (66.7% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (60% catch rate and 64.6 passer rating). The Chargers are 18th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

We’ll see if Palmer can suit up this week after missing last week’s game with elbow and calf issues. I’m not very optimistic since he didn’t practice at all last week.

Quentin Johnston (WR)

Johnston has run hot with big plays and touchdowns this season propelling him to WR21 in fantasy points per game. Johnston has earned a 19.7% target share (4.3 targets per game), a 29.2% air-yard share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 31.6% first-read share (leads the team). He has 75% of the team’s receiving touchdown production. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (68.5%). Against two high, Johnston has seen his target share slip to 12.5% while his first-read share remains at 30%. We’ll see if he can keep this highwire act up again in Week 4 against a pass defense that has allowed the 13th-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Johnston will run about 93% of his routes against Jaylen Watson (66.7% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating) and Trent McDuffie (55.6% catch rate and 77.5 passer rating).

Travis Kelce (TE)

Panic! Did someone say panic? It’s getting close. If not time to press the panic button on the future Hall of Famer. Kelce’s usage hasn’t been the problem so much as his efficiency. He has handled a 69% route share which isn’t great, but it’s not damning either. The problem is he has only earned a 12% target share, an 18.8% air-yard share, and a 14.5% first-read share with 0.96 YPRR. These are run-of-the-mill replacement-level numbers in the tight-end world. No, I didn’t think we’d be here, but it is what it is. I hope that Kelce can flip the switch at some point, but we have to consider that the switch might be superglued in the off position. It’s unlikely to happen this week as the Bolts have held tight ends to the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-lowest yards per reception.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

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• BAL -2.5, O/U 46.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Baltimore’s neutral passing rate has fallen every week, but their lightning-fast pace has remained. They are fifth in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Buffalo has the eighth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 18th in neutral passing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Josh Allen
• James Cook
• Derrick Henry
• Dalton Kincaid

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Shakir is the WR20 in fantasy points per game as the leading receiver for the Bills. He has a 19.2% target share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 22% first-read share while averaging 56 receiving yards per game. He should compete with Dalton Kincaid to lead the team in receiving stats again this week. Baltimore has the sixth-highest rate of two high this season (52.7%). Against two-high, Shakir has posted a strong 1.95 YPRR. Baltimore has been a slot funnel so far this season. They have allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards to slot receivers. Shakir will run about 82% of his routes from the slot this week against Kyle Hamilton (88.8% catch rate and 148.1 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Zay Flowers (WR)

Flowers is the WR26 in fantasy with a 26.7% target share, a 28.0% air-yard share, 1.53 YPRR, and a 32.8% first-read share. He’s still seeing a monster 33.3% designed target share as the team looks to get the ball in his hands as much as possible. After averaging 10.5 targets through the two games, Baltimore went away from all things passing last week, and Flowers only had four targets. Jackson only attempted 15 passes, so Flowers was still heavily involved. Flowers will stay active this week. The big determinant of his target volume will be how much Baltimore decides to chuck it versus the Bill’s stout pass defense. This could be another week where Jackson doesn’t throw the ball more than 20 times. Flowers will run about 66% of his routes against Christian Benford (38.5% catch rate and 14.6 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (63.6% catch rate and 111.2 passer rating). Buffalo has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman should remain parked on your bench this week. His 10.9% target share and 27 receiving yards per game are tough enough to talk yourself into weekly, even if we don’t factor in the brutal pass-defense matchup this week. Buffalo has allowed the fewest PPR points per target and receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Jackson might not throw the ball more than 18-20 times this week.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman’s usage has been all over the map this season. Last week, he only had a 31.4% route share, as we learned after the game that it was punishment for showing up to meetings late. We’ll see if Coleman sets his alarm clock this week, but it’s impossible to feel good about starting him in Week 4. It’s possible the rookie remains on the coaching staff’s bad side for Week 4 and has to earn playing time back.

Curtis Samuel (WR)

Samuel has yet to see a full-time workload in this offense. Last week, he had only a 25.7% route share and a 9.7% target share. He is droppable until this changes.

Mark Andrews (TE)

WHAT ARE WE DOING BALTIMORE? Seriously. Last week, Andrews had only a 23.5% route share and one target. I understand they wanted to go run-heavy, but when arguably your best-receiving threat is fifth in route share, there’s a big problem here. So what do we do with Andrews for fantasy? Unfortunately, most people don’t have better starting options at tight end, and the entire position is a wasteland, so if you have to start him, I get it. In the previous two games, Andrews at least had a 69% route share, but he still only managed a 9.3% target share, 1.05 YPRR, a 13.3% first-read share, and 6.3 fantasy points per game. None of this is good. Now, Andrews faces a Bills defense that has yielded the fifth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends and ranks 18th in receiving yards per game allowed despite facing the third-most tight end targets per game. Andrews is benchable. It just depends on who your options are.

Isaiah Likely (TE)

Remember when people were dropping half their FAAB for Likely after Week 1? Fun times, right? Since Week 2, Likely has had a 40% route share, an 8.2% target share, 1.36 YPRR, and an 8.6% first-read share. Yeah, none of these equal a startable tight end for fantasy purposes. Now add in that Buffalo has shut down tight ends and Likely should be parked on benches this week. The Bills defense has yielded the fifth-lowest yards per reception to tight ends and ranks 18th in receiving yards per game allowed despite facing the third-most tight end targets per game.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins

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• MIA -1, O/U 36.5
• Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Tennessee is 14th and 12th in neutral pace and passing rate. Last week, Miami had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral rushing rate. I expect a similar approach this week, regardless of who is starting at quarterback.

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• De’Von Achane
• Tyreek Hill

*Like I said last week, I don’t care if I’m the quarterback for the Dolphins this week. It doesn’t matter. You are starting Achane and Hill weekly.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis has been a basement-level QB2 this season (QB27), but this is a matchup where he could walk away with a solid stat line. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 29th in passer rating, and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. Miami has been giving to quarterbacks, allowing the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the 12th-highest CPOE, the 13th-highest passer rating, and the 10th-highest success rate per dropback.

Tony Pollard (RB)

The Titans abandoned the run last week against one of the best-rushing matchups on the board. Does it make any sense? No, but it happened. Pollard has played at least 61% of the snaps in every game this season while averaging 16.7 touches and 75 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, Pollard ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. He remains the clear lead back for Tennessee with a 58% passing down snap share and an 81% snap rate in the red zone. Pollard has another easy route to fantasy success in Week 4 if the Titans decide to run the ball. Miami has allowed the fourth-highest rushing touchdown rate and missed tackle rate and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley is the WR39 in fantasy points per game commanding a 17% target share, a 47.5% air-yard share, and a 23.4% first-read share with 1.56 YPRR. With the up and down play of Levis, Ridley has only had a 56.3% catchable target rate this season. It’s made him incredibly volatile. Ridley has also not drawn an end zone or red zone target. This isn’t a matchup that favors Ridley this week. Miami has the 10th-highest two high rate this season (48.8%). Against two high, Ridley has the fourth-highest TPRR (19%) on the team while he still ranks first in first-read share (20%).

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Last week, Hopkins was a full-time player before the game got out of hand. He should be a full-time player again in Week 4. Hopkins should lead the way through the air for Tennessee this week. Miami has the 10th-highest two-high rate this season (48.8%). Against two high this season, Hopkins leads the team with a 27% TPRR and 2.13 YPRR. These numbers are eerily similar to last year’s when he led the team against two high with a 25% TPRR and 2.23 YPRR. Miami has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Skylar Thompson (QB)

Thompson is dealing with a chest issue and isn’t certain to start in Week 4. I’ll update his outlook on Friday or add Tyler Huntley to the Primer. Miami could choose to roll with Huntley even if Thompson gets cleared after his 5.6 yards per attempt last week.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

I’ll update Mostert’s outlook on Friday. He may return in Week 4 after logging limited practices all last week (chest).

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears remains a handcuff only. He played 37% of the snaps last week with six touches and 61 total yards. Much of that production (54 yards) came via the passing game. It’s more a fluke than signal, though, as Spears played only 34% of the passing downs and saw only four targets. Hold him on benches this week.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Waddle is a tough player to consider as more than a WR3/flex right now. He has only seen a 13% target share, a 14.8% air-yard share, and a 16.9% first-read share this season despite producing 2.15 YPRR. With his 7.5 aDOT, he is going to need a big play (or two) or a volume infusion to pay off, and that’s tough to predict with Miami’s quarterback situation right now. The Titans have the 12th-highest rate of two high (48.4%). Against two high, Waddle’s target share has dipped to 11.9%, and his first-read share has fallen to 14.9%. In most leagues, I’m sitting Waddle this week. Tennessee has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Last week, Smith’s route share tumbled to 28%. He only drew a 9.4% target share with 1.64 YPRR. This isn’t enough volume or playing time to be fantasy-relevant for Week 4.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)

Okonkwo is droppable in all formats. Tennessee has been utilizing a three-way committee at tight end. Last week, Okonkwo had only a 46% route share and a 5.9% target share.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• DET -3.5, O/U 46.5
• Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle has been awesome this season, ranking fourth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate. The Lions have taken the opposite approach, as they are 17th in neutral pace and 14th in neutral rushing rate.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Jameson Williams
• DK Metcalf
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith is playing good football right now as the QB13 in fantasy. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, and 15th in passer rating and highly accurate throw rate. Smith can have another strong day against a Lions’ secondary that has allowed the 11th-highest success rate per dropback and the 13th-highest EPA per dropback and passing yards per game. The Lions remain a pass-funnel defense.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Will the real Smith-Njigba please stand up? His usage has been all over the map this season. Just when I thought it was safe to trust him in Week 2, his Week 3 usage mirrored Week 1. His weekly target shares have been 8%, 36.4%, and 8.8%. Seriously?! Overall, he has a 20.4% target share, 1.84 YPRR, a 21.2% first-read share, and a 27.6% air-yard share. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate this year (60%). Smith-Njigba’s usage has remained consistent with his overall numbers against single-high as he has remained the second on-paper option in the passing attack behind Metcalf in every category. Working in his favor is the fact that passing attacks have highly targeted the slot against Detroit. The Lions have defended the second-most targets to slot receivers and allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position. Smith-Njigba will run about 85% of his routes against Amik Robertson (50% catch rate and 72.9 passer rating).

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant hasn’t done much this season. He has a 66% route share with a 12.6% target share, 1.15 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. He did finish with a season-high six grabs and 60 receiving yards last week, so there’s hope he continues that this week. The Lions have defended the 11th-fewest targets per game to tight ends, but they have allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff is benchable this week. He has struggled out the gate as the QB24 in fantasy. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, and 32nd in CPOE and highly accurate throw rate. Seattle has been a shutdown pass defense this season. They have held quarterbacks to the lowest success rate per dropback and yards per attempt, the second-lowest EPA per dropback, and the sixth-lowest CPOE.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery has been solid again this season as the RB10 in fantasy points per game. He has averaged 19.7 touches and 95 total yards per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, he is 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 23rd in yards after contact per attempt. Seattle is a tough road for him to travel this week. They have really stepped up as a run defense with the fourth-highest stuff rate while allowing the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate and the 11th-lowest rushing success rate. Montgomery is a volume play this week.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

We’ll see if Kenneth Walker returns to the lineup this week. It’s likely 50/50 since Walker didn’t practice last week until he logged a limited session on Friday. I’ll update his outlook on Friday after we have some practice reports to digest.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

If Walker returns this week, Charbonnet will move back into this backup role, but Charbonnet could get one more week as the team’s bellcow if he doesn’t. Over the last two weeks, Charbonnet has averaged 90% of the snaps with 20 touches and 88 total yards as the RB6 in fantasy points per game. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt. If Charbonnet is the starter in Week 4, he’ll have to rely on his volume because the matchup is horrendous. Detroit remains one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing the second-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett has had two “usable” weeks this season for fantasy as the WR22 and WR48 in Weeks 1 & 3. Overall, he has a 14.6% target share, an 18% air-yard share, 1.68 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. Detroit has the eighth-highest single-high rate this year (60%). Lockett has a 13.5% target share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 20.6% first-read share against single-high. My hope this week is that Smith-Njigba reasserts himself as the clear WR2 in this passing attack, but the target volume could easily flow in Lockett’s direction after Metcalf gets his. This target pecking order has been tough to wrap my head around after Metcalf. Detroit has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Lockett will run about 74% of his routes against Carlton Davis (78.3% catch rate and 136.2 passer rating) and Terrion Arnold (68.4% catch rate and 111.7 passer rating).

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• DAL -6, O/U 45.5
• Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Dallas has slowed their pace this season (15th) in close games while remaining pass-heavy (ninth in neutral passing rate).
• The Giants have returned to Brian Daboll’s previous ways, ranking eighth in neutral pace and 16th in neutral passing rate.

Cowboys Players & Weekly Rankings

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• CeeDee Lamb
• Malik Nabers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Prescott is the QB7 in fantasy, but it’s just propped up by volume. He leads all quarterbacks in passing attempts. His per-dropback metrics have been quite disappointing. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Prescott ranks 23rd in yards per attempt, 31st in CPOE, and 19th in fantasy points per dropbacks. This is a get-right matchup for Prescott, though. New York’s pass defense has been passable in some metrics (16th in EPA per dropback and yards per attempt) while showing their true colors in others. They have allowed the seventh-highest CPOE and ninth-highest passer rating. Prescott should enjoy a strong statistical day in Week 4.

Devin Singletary (RB)

Singletary is the RB20 in fantasy, averaging 17 touches and 85 total yards. He has played at least 68% of the snaps in every game. Singletary has been his usual hyper-efficient self. Among 49 qualifying backs, Singletary ranks ninth in explosive run rate, tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. He has a wonderful matchup on the ground this week, and the Giants should lean on him. Dallas has surrendered the 12th-highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, and the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Singletary could flirt with RB1 production this week.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Dowdle led the Dallas backfield last week in snaps, routes, targets, and carries. Dallas utilized fullback Hunter Luepke more in the passing game, while Ezekiel Elliott became a distant memory. Dowdle played 46% of the snaps, rolling up 11 touches with 56 total yards. Dowdle led the group with a 60% snap rate on rushing plays and a 43% snap rate in the red zone. Dowdle is slowly taking over the backfield as Dallas realizes that Elliott has little to offer at this stage of his career. It’s a small sample, but Dowdle hasn’t been efficient with his early down work. Among 49 qualifying backs, he sadly ranks 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 32nd in yards after contact per attempt, and hasn’t managed an explosive run yet. He still remains the best option among meh options for the team. This could be his breakout game of the season in Week 4 if the team commits to him finally. The Giants run defense is a magical elixir for backs, allowing the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the highest missed tackle rate and yards after contact in the NFL.

Jalen Tolbert (WR)

Tolbert has been a solid fantasy receiver over the last two games with a 14% target share, a 26.3% air-yard share, 1.49 YPRR, and a 18.3% first-read share. Over that span, he has averaged 62 receiving yards and 13.7 fantasy points per game. The Giants have the seventh-highest single-high rate (60.4%). Since Week 2, Tolbert has been the team’s second option against single high with a 16.3% target share and a 17.5% first read share. He has posted a solid 2.33 YPRR against single-high in this small sample. Expect Tolbert to have another solid showing in Week 4. The Giants have allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

I speculated that Ferguson would be more limited last week in his return to the lineup, but he wasn’t. He had a 73% route share with a 19.6% target share, 2.38 YPRR, and a 20.6% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Overall, Ferguson has a 19.3% target share, 1.93 YPRR, and an 18.6% first read share as the TE7 in fantasy. Ferguson should post another TE1-worthy stat line this week against a defense that has allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception and the 12th-most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Don’t look now, but Jones is a viable fantasy quarterback again. Jones has finished as the QB6 and QB8 in fantasy over the last two weeks. Over that span, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones ranks seventh in passer rating, second in passing touchdowns (tied), eighth in CPOE, and seventh in fantasy points per dropback. Yes, I am as surprised as you are right now. I don’t think that carries into this week, though. Dallas has surrendered the seventh-highest yards per attempt, but they also have held passers to the 11th-lowest CPOE and 13th-lowest passer rating. Jones also falls apart under pressure. Dallas has the 11th-best pressure rate. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks against pressure, Jones ranks 23rd in passing grade and 25th in yards per attempt. If you’re only expecting QB2 numbers from Jones in Week 4 in a Superflex league, he can likely provide that, but not a ton more.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB)

Elliott is droppable. Dallas has finally realized that Elliott has little to offer an NFL offense at this juncture of his career. Last week, he played only 19% of the snaps, with four touches and 12 total yards. Don’t be surprised if Dallas parts ways with him in the coming weeks.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson has seen weekly target shares of 28.5%, 14.2%, and 23.5% this season as the WR35 in fantasy points per game. Overall, Robinson has a 21.5% target share, 1.50 YPRR, and a 23.9% first-read share. He has been the team’s underneath weapon with his 4.3 aDOT. Daniel Jones could be under fire all game if Dallas’s pass rush gets home. When Jones has been under duress, Robinson has seen an 18.6% target share and a 20% first-read share. He’ll run about 79% of his routes against Jourdan Lewis (62.5% catch rate and 68.2 passer rating).

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks looks like he has lost his grip on the third-receiving option role in the Dallas offense. Through three games, he has a 12% target share, only 0.71 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. While his per-route metrics remain good, he’s simply not drawing targets. Among 73 qualifying receivers, he ranks 20th in separation and 27th in route win rate. The Giants have the seventh-highest single-high rate (60.4%). Since Week 2, against single high, Cooks has had only a 12.2% target share (fourth on the team), 0.73 YPRR, and a 15% first-read share (fourth on Dallas). The matchup this week is wonderful, so if you’re in a pickle and need a desperation flex play, I get it, but in most instances, Cooks should be parked on the bench. The Giants have allowed the fifth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*