The Primer: Week 4 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

• NYJ -7.5, O/U 39.5
• Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Denver ranks 13th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 2, this has looked like a conventional Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett offense, ranking 17th in neutral passing rate with the fifth-slowest neutral pace.

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Braelon Allen (RB)

Over the last two weeks, Allen has played 32-35% of the snaps, averaging 11.5 touches and 62 total yards. He has finished as the RB6 and RB30 in fantasy. Allen has had a consistent stand-alone role behind Breece Hall, with 36% of the rushing snaps, 32% of the passing down work, and a 27% red zone snap share. Allen has been impressive with this work. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. Allen offers strong flex appeal this week against a run defense that have given up the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Allen Lazard (WR)

Lazard has been a happy surprise with Rodgers back. He is the WR18 in fantasy with a 17% target share, a 26.9% air-yard share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 19.7% first-read share. Lazard is tied for the team lead with five red zone targets. With Garrett Wilson likely getting shadowed by Patrick Surtain, Lazard could see more targets this week. Denver has the fifth-highest rate of single high this season (61.7%). Lazard’s market share is relatively unchanged against single-high, but his YPRR has climbed to 2.19. If Surtain is following Wilson around all day, Lazard likely matches up with Riley Moss (75% catch rate and 111.5 passer rating) for most of the game. He’s a strong flex play again this week.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Over the last two weeks, Rodgers has started to flash some shades of his former greatness as the QB13 in fantasy. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he ranks 19th in yards per attempt, ninth in passer rating, 16th in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. Rodgers likely returns decent QB2 numbers this week against a solid Denver pass defense. The Broncos have allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt and the eighth-lowest EPA per dropback while ranking 15th in CPOE and success rate per dropback.

Bo Nix (QB)

Last week Nix looked like a competent NFL starter which was a big deal considering what he had put on film in his two previous games. He was the QB12 in fantasy. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 25th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, 15th in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Despite that glimmer of hope, that doesn’t mean I want to start him in any fantasy format this week. The Jets’ pass defense remains nasty. They have held passers to the ninth-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied), and the 10th-lowest success rate per dropback.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Last week Williams was third in line for rushing work with only 24% of the rushing play snaps while he saw a 60% snap share on passing plays. Williams also remained the team’s preferred red zone back with a 73% snap rate inside the 20. Overall he played 51% of the snaps with nine touches and 41 total yards. Williams has been an inefficient rusher again this season. He has yet to break an explosive run and has only 1.83 yards after contact per attempt (42nd out of 50 qualifying backs) although I will also say that the Denver offensive line isn’t doing any of these backs any favors. The Jets are a middle of the road matchup on the ground allowing the 11th-lowest explosive run rate, ranking 18th in stuff rate, and allowing the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Williams is an uninspiring flex play.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)

Sadly, McLaughlin has seen his snap rate drop each week from 35% in Week 1 to 26% in Week 3. McLaughlin is close to droppable at this point, but let’s get this straight. Sean Payton is scrambling to formulate some type of productive running game and he’s failing. The Denver offensive line is the problem not McLaughlin. Denver has the fifth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. McLaughlin has been running into brick walls, but he’s been easily the best tackle breaking back on the team. Among 50 qualifying backs, McLaughlin ranks 16th in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. McLaughlin has seen -0.28 yards before contact per attempt on his carries. That is insane. Until Payton wakes up, McLaughlin isn’t playable.

Tyler Badie (RB)

Badie isn’t worth picking up or playing in Week 4. He played only 13 snaps last week, registering nine carries and 70 rushing yards. He ripped off 43 of those yards with one play. His profile doesn’t look inspiring when you pop the hood with only a 10% missed tackle rate and 2.3 yards before contact per attempt. Basically, the Denver offensive line managed to give him some creases, but we have seen a larger sample of this offensive line being well below average, so we should expect that to come back to earth.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Only Sutton and Lil’Jordan Humphrey managed route shares of at least 52% last week with Denver. Sutton was at 69.2% (led the team). Sutton remains the target hog in this offense with a 23% target share, a 43.8% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, and a 29.1% first-read share. He leads the team with five end-zone targets. The problem for Sutton remains target quality. Only 57.7% of his targets have been deemed catchable. Sutton is a must-sit this week. He’ll run about 82% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (70% catch rate and 137.9 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (60% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating). The Jets have allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Mike Williams (WR)

Last week, Williams had only a 50% route share with an 11.4% target share, a 19.4% air-yard share, 1.70 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share. Williams remains a stash that needs his snap share and usage to bump up just a tad more before we start having the conversation about him being a viable fantasy option weekly.

Tyler Conklin (WR)

Last week, Conklin popped off with 93 receiving yards, a 17.1% target share, a 32.8% air-yard share, and 2.91 YPRR as the TE4 for the week. We have a long history of Conklin being a middling TE2, so you can miss me with any breakout talk. The best stat from that game that speaks to the flukey nature of that usage is his 4.8% first-read share. Conklin wasn’t getting priority usage in this offense. It was Rodgers surveying the field and finding Conklin as a tertiary option in the passing attack. Don’t forget Conklin had only two receptions and 16 receiving yards combined from the first two games of this season. Denver has held tight ends to the seventh-lowest yards per reception and the 14th-fewest receiving yards per game.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -3.5, O/U 50.5
• Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Washington has not followed the Kliff Kingsbury path to this point. They have the second-slowest neutral pace while operating with the fifth-highest neutral script pace.
• Arizona ranks 21st and 14th in neutral pace and passing rate.

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyler Murray
• Jayden Daniels
• James Conner
• Marvin Harrison Jr.

*McBride has been ruled out for Week 4 (concussion).*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is the only full-time wide receiver in the Washington offense. He has been the centerpiece of their passing attack with a 23.7% target share, a 51.2% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 26.8% first-read share. He leads the team with five deep targets and two end-zone looks. McLaurin should feast this week while running about 79% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (85.7% catch rate and 100.0 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (55.6% catch rate and 110.9 passer rating). Arizona has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Greg Dortch (WR)

Dortch has been relatively quiet over the last two weeks after his eight targets, six receptions, and 47 receiving yards in Week 1. The target volume should move in his direction this week. Washington has the fourth-highest rate of two high in the NFL (62.9%). Against two high, Dortch has a 20.4% target share, 2.03 YPRR, a sterling 0.132 FD/RR, and a 17.1% first-read share. Dortch will run about 63% of his routes against Noah Igbinoghene (58.3% catch rate and 95.1 passer rating). Washington has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game with a 70% route share, a 17.1% target share, 1.80 YPRR, and a 19.6% first-read share (second to only Terry McLaurin). Among 42 qualifying tight ends, he is 11th in separation and sixth in route win rate. These are all crazy stats, I know, considering our thoughts regarding Ertz in the offseason. Ertz should produce TE1 numbers again in Week 4 against an Arizona defense that has faced the seventh-fewest tight end targets but has relinquished the highest yards per reception to the position.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. is the RB18 in fantasy points per game, averaging 16.7 touches and 87.4 total yards. Last week with Austin Ekeler leaving with a concussion, he played a season-high 76% of the snaps. With Ekeler out, Robinson Jr. could get near bellcow usage in Week 4. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. He has shown well in limited opportunities as a receiver this season. Among 42 qualifying backs, he ranks 10th in YPRR and 19th in TPRR. Robinson will need the extra checkdowns this week as he faces a surprisingly tough Arizona run defense. The Cardinals have yielded the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate, the 10th-lowest gap rushing success rate, and the sixth-lowest gap yards per carry (Robinson 51% gap).

Michael Wilson (WR)

Wilson is coming off easily his best game of the season, but this isn’t the week to chase last week’s nine targets, eight receptions, and 64 receiving yards boxscore. Washington has the fourth-highest rate of two high in the NFL (62.9%). Against two high, Wilson has only a 14.3% target share, 1.48 YPRR, and a 17.1% first-read share. Sit Wilson this week.

Luke McCaffrey (WR)

McCaffrey is droppable at this point. Last week, he only had a 30% route share despite having a 13.6% target share. He also only saw a 6.3% first-read share. This isn’t nearly enough volume or playing time to consider holding him on a roster.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

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New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers

• SF -10.5, O/U 40.5
• New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Patriots have predictably been slow and run-heavy, with the fifth-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL. San Francisco ranks 20th in neutral pace with the 12th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jordan Mason
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy has been dealing as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, and first in CPOE. He faces a Patriots’ pass defense that’s made of Swiss cheese. They have given up the sixth-highest success rate per dropback, the seventh-highest EPA per dropback, and the highest CPOE to quarterbacks. Another QB1 week for Purdy is incoming.

Jauan Jennings (WR)

Last week, Jennings went crazy with a 40% target share, a 46.9% air-yard share, 5.15 YPRR, and a 42.9% first-read share. He finished with 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards, and three scores. He should have another productive week against the Patriots and their two high defense if Samuel is out. The Patriots have featured the eighth-highest rate of two-high (50.4%). Against two high, Jennings has a 23.6% target share, a 36.1% air-yard share, 3.61 YPRR, and a 24.3% first-read share. With Christian Gonzalez hanging with Brandon Aiyuk all day, Jennings should see Jonathan Jones (70% catch rate and 97.1 passer rating) for most of the game. If Samuel is back, Jennings will see his usage cut. If Samuel is out, Jennings is firmly on the WR3/flex radar.

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Last week, Douglas was the only Patriots wide receiver to sniff more than a 70% route share. He was their passing attack with a 34.6% target share, a 30.5% air-yard share, 2.46 YPRR, and a 45% first-read share. He finished as the WR26 in fantasy. This week, he should post another flex-worth performance running about 82% of his routes against Deommodore Lenoir (66.7% catch rate and 81.3 passer rating). The 49ers have allowed the most receiving yards and the highest PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers this season.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Samuel might be back this week. He didn’t practice on Wednesday but he did manage limited practices on Thursday and Friday (calf). If he’s ready to roll, he should be highly utilized this week. Samuel is the WR9 in fantasy, commanding a 29.2% target share, a 32.5% air-yard share, with 2.52 YPRR, and a 29.2% first-read share. Samuel is tied for third on the team with two red zone targets. The Patriots have featured the eighth-highest rate of two-high (50.4%). Against two high, he leads the team with a 30% TPRR, 3.0 YPRR, and a 28.6% first-read share. With Christian Gonzalez hanging with Brandon Aiyuk all day, Samuel should see Jonathan Jones (70% catch rate and 97.1 passer rating) for most of the game.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Brissett is barely rosterable in Superflex leagues and not in the discussion for starting in 1QB formats. He’s the QB33 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, 32nd in fantasy points per dropback, and he owns the ninth-highest off-target throw rate. I can’t rule out that we see Drake Maye this week if Brissett starts slow in Week 4. A must sit in all formats.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

Well, so much for Aiyuk week last week. Apparently, I was wrong, and that was just a weird way to spell Jauan Jennings week. The returns for Aiyuk haven’t been there with his WR53 standing, but that doesn’t mean that he has been bad on the field. Among 106 qualifying receivers, he ranks third in separation score and first in route win rate, so don’t think about trading him away. If anything, now is a great time to get Aiyuk on your teams. This looks like another tough-on-paper matchup this week. Aiyuk has a 20% target share, a 21.7% air-yard share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 23.2% first-read share. The Patriots have featured the eighth-highest rate of two-high (50.4%). Against two high, Aiyuk has had a 16.4% target share, 0.95 YPRR, and a 21.6% first-read share. Also, add that Aiyuk will get shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez this week, and it’s a good week to fade Aiyuk. Gonzalez has followed Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and D.K. Metcalf this season on 84-90% of their routes, holding Chase and Wilson to 33 receiving yards or less.

Hunter Henry (TE)

The Patriots continue to screw around with the personnel usage. After Henry went off in Week 2, the Patriots decided to cut his route share as he fell to 57.1% with only an 11.5% target share, 0.45 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. Until the Patriots decide to commit to using their best players weekly, it’s tough to trust Henry. The 49ers have also been tough against tight ends, so it’s an easy matchup to cross Henry off your streamer board. San Francisco has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• LV -2, O/U 37
• Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• There will be plenty of passing volume in this game. Cleveland ranks 11th and ninth in neutral pace and passing rate. The Raiders have the 10th-slowest neutral pace but rank sixth in neutral passing rate.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jerome Ford (RB)

Ford regained his workhorse role for Cleveland last week. The problem is that he didn’t do much with the role. He played 79% of the snaps with 13 touches and 70 total yards. Ford hasn’t shown any of the tackle-breaking juice in 2024 that we saw last year. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 31st in explosive run rate, 29th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. He couldn’t take advantage of last week’s cakewalk matchup with the Giants, so I don’t know if he will this week against a porous Raiders’ run defense. Las Vegas has allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-most rushing yards per game, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper finally bounced back, trouncing the Giants’ secondary as the WR5 for the week despite only 58% of his targets being deemed as catchable. That one big game has elevated Cooper to WR35 for the season with an overall target share of 25%, a 45.9% air-yard share, 0.90 YPRR, and a 30.6% first-read share. Cooper has still only seen a catchable target rate of 58.6% this season. It’s tough playing with Deshaun Watson as your quarterback these days. We’ll see if Cooper can keep the good times rolling in Week 4 against a Raiders’ secondary that has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Cooper will run about 77% of his routes against Jack Jones (69.2% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (38.5% catch rate and 55.6 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Gardner Minshew II (QB)

Minshew remains a snooze-worthy QB2. I would have big-time worries about starting him in Week 4 for fear that Aidan O’Connell could replace him if he struggles early. Minshew is the QB22 in fantasy. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 15th in yards per attempt and CPOE, 18th in passer rating, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Despite Daniel Jones looking competent against this pass defense last week, Cleveland remains a pass defense that I don’t want to test. The Browns have allowed the 10th-lowest yards per attempt, the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the 13th-lowest EPA per dropback.

Deshaun Watson (QB)

Watson remains the same broken quarterback that we have seen over the last two seasons as the QB19 in fantasy. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 34th in yards per attempt, 31st in passer rating, 26th in CPOE, and 30th in fantasy points per dropback. Watson gets another cakewalk matchup this week that he likely won’t take advantage of. The Raiders have allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-highest passer rating, the fifth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most fantasy points to passing.

Zamir White (RB)

Well, last week effectively snuffed out the hope candle for White. Last week, in a smash matchup on the ground, White played his lowest snap count of the season (22%) with 10 carries for 34 yards. White played 71.4% of the rushing snaps but fell short in the passing game (8.9% of snaps) and in the red zone (25% of snaps). The Raiders have the eighth-most snaps when trailing this season, which is burying White’s usage. He also has been disappointing as an early down hammer. Among 50 qualifying backs, he has ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 39th in yards after contact per attempt. It has been a tough scene, no matter how you analyze it. The Browns have been a tougher run defense this season, allowing the 12th-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the 13th-fewest rushing yards per game (tied). White is droppable at this point.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jeudy looked primed for a big day last week, but ultimately, it was a Cooper bounceback day that stole the show. Jeudy is the WR43 in fantasy points per game with a 17.2% target share, a 28.5% air-yard share, 1.05 YPRR, and an 18.8% first-read share. No receiving threat in the Cleveland offense will have sparkling efficiency numbers because the level of quarterback play has been so bad. I’m not attempting to excuse Jeudy here, but it’s the truth. Watson is a backup-level quarterback at this juncture. The Raiders have the 10th-highest single-high rate in the NFL (57.1%). Against single-high, Jeudy’s target share has dipped a tad to 16.4% while his first-read share has stayed consistent at 18.2%, so this coverage matchup does nothing to boost his Week 4 outlook as a meh-level flex play. The matchup is good, though, for what it’s worth. The Raiders’ secondary has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Jeudy will run about 63% of his routes against Jack Jones (69.2% catch rate and 126.0 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (38.5% catch rate and 55.6 passer rating).

Davante Adams (WR)

Adams has been ruled out (hamstring).

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

With Adams out, Meyers will be the Raiders’ WR1 this week. Meyers has a 15.3% target share, a 24% air-yard share, 1.45 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. The Browns have the highest single high rate in the NFL (74.5%). Against single-high, Meyers has had a 24.1% target share, 1.75 YPRR, and a 27% first-read share. He gets a big boost in targets with Adams out and the single-high matchup this week. Meyers will run about 53% of his routes against Greg Newsome (58.3% catch rate and 91.0 passer rating). The Browns have allowed the sixth-lowest PPR points per target and the 12th-lowest passer rating to slot receivers.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

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