Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Pace and playcalling notes
- Jacksonville ranks sixth and eighth in neutral pace and passing rate. If Jacksonville’s offense can rebound, there should be some sweet passing and play volume to siphon from this ecosystem.
- Houston’s offense has been disappointing, ranking 16th in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate. We got a tease of pace up and pass happiness in Week 2, only for Houston to slow back down in Week 3.
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | QB2 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | RB | RB1/2 |
| Tank Bigsby | RB | RB4 |
| Christian Kirk | WR | WR3 |
| Gabe Davis | WR | WR5 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | WR3/4 |
| Evan Engram | TE | TBD |
| Brenton Strange | TE | TBD |
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB1 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | TBD |
| Dameon Pierce | RB | TBD |
| Cam Akers | RB | RB3 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR2/3 |
| Tank Dell | WR | WR2/3 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
This is a get-right spot for the Houston passing attack. While Houston should be led this week by Nico Collins, Diggs should be the second in command. Diggs is the WR13 in fantasy points per game with a 21.4% target share, a 19.3% air-yard share (6.5 aDOT), 1.56 YPRR, and a 27% first-read share. Diggs is second on the team (behind only Nico Collins) in red zone targets. Jacksonville has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (64%). Against single-high, he leads the team with a 23.4% target share while ranking second with 1.77 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share. Diggs will run about 64% of his routes against Christian Braswell (100% catch rate and 93.8 passer rating). Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
Dell has been a disappointment to this point as the WR53 in fantasy. He has only managed a 14.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.01 YPRR, and a 13.5% first-read share as the Texans’ WR3. He’s third on the team in end zone and red zone targets. Jacksonville has the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (64%). Against single-high, Dell has seen a slight increase in his usage with a 17% target share, a 29.2% air-yard share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 12.9% first-read share. His route metrics aren’t any prettier. Among 106 qualifying receivers, he ranks 43rd in separation and 57th in route win rate. This is a good matchup for Dell to show some type of spark. Jacksonville has allowed the 10th-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Dell will run about 62% of his routes against Montaric Brown (77.8% catch rate and 113.0 passer rating) and Ronald Darby (66.7% catch rate and 133.3 passer rating). Dell is due for a big game. He did miss Wednesday’s practice (chest).
The Jags finally woke up and realized it was a good thing to feature arguably their best wide receiver in Week 3. Last week, Kirk had a 21.7% target share, a 23.1% air-yard share, 2.03 YPRR, and a whopping 32.1% first-read share. It’s not as if Kirk has been playing poorly. Among 106 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 25th in separation. This could be another good week to feature Kirk. Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 56.7% of their defensive snaps. Last year, Kirk led the team with 2.29 YPRR and ranked second with 0.47 fantasy points per route run against Cover 3 and Cover 4. Kirk will run about 86% of his routes against Jalen Pitre (83.3% catch rate and 87.8 passer rating). Houston has allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and the most receiving touchdowns (tied) to slot receivers.
Thomas Jr. has commanded a 17.5% target share, a 22.3% air-yard share, and a 20.9% first-read share with 2.22 YPRR as the WR33 in fantasy. If it’s not a huge Kirk week, then Thomas Jr. should go off this week. Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 56.7% of their defensive snaps. This season against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Thomas Jr. has had a 31% target share, a 37.6% air-yard share, 3.36 YPRR, and a 37.3% first-read share. It just depends on which receiver Jacksonville wants to lean on this week. It’s also possible it’s door #3, and both wideouts have banner days. Thomas Jr. will run about 80% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (66.7% catch rate and 56.8 passer rating) and Kamara Lassiter (33.3% catch rate and 14.6 passer rating). The strength of this secondary is their outside corners, so I do lean that Kirk is the preferred WR1 this week.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Lawrence has been objectively terrible this season no matter what metric you pull up. He’s the QB30 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, 29th in CPOE, and 28th in fantasy points per dropback and it doesn’t look like it’ll get any better in Week 4. Houston has held quarterbacks to the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest CPOE, the 10th-lowest success rate per dropback, and the 11th-lowest EPA per dropback. Consider sitting Lawrence this week for another streaming option.
Mixon didn’t practice Wednesday (ankle). He’s likely still at least another week away from returning.
It looks like Akers will be the starting running back for Houston again in Week 4. Last week Akers played 43% of the snaps with ten touches and 28 total yards. He saved his day with a receiving touchdown. He handled nearly all the rushing work (91% of the rushing play snaps) while conceding to Dare Ogunbowale on passing downs (35% of snaps vs. 48%) and in the red zone (25% of snaps vs. 75%). In his limited action, Akers has posted solid tackle-breaking metrics with a 25% missed tackle rate and 2.81 yards after contact per attempt. Akers likely needs a touchdown this week to pay off again because his rushing matchup is brutal. Jacksonville has held rushers to the sixth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-missed tackle rate, and the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Pierce didn’t practice Wednesday (hamstring). He’s likely still at least another week away from returning.
This isn’t the week to consider playing Gabriel Davis. Davis is the WR74 in fantasy points per game with a 16.5% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 1.40 YPRR, and a 17.9% first-read share. Houston has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 56.7% of their defensive snaps. This season against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Davis has a 9.5% target share, 1.02 YPRR, and a measly 9.7% first-read share. Sit Davis.
Schultz has become a distant memory in this passing attack. He has a 9.8% target share, 0.51 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. Schultz doesn’t have an end zone or red zone target this season. Schultz is droppable at this point. Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Evan Engram looks like he’ll likely miss another game, which means Strange will be the Jags starting tight end in Week 4. Over the last two games, he has been the TE11 in fantasy with a 15.8% target share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 17.6% first-read share. That type of usage is great, but this isn’t a matchup to consider streaming him. Houston has allowed the fewest yards per reception and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Engram didn’t practice on Wednesday (hamstring). He’s likely at least another week away from returning.
DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
Pace and playcalling notes
- This game could lead the Week 4 slate in pace and passing volume. The Rams are second in neutral pace while leading the league in neutral passing rate. The Bears rank seventh and fifth in neutral pace and passing rate.
Rams Players & Weekly Rankings
| Matthew Stafford | QB | QB2 |
| Kyren Williams | RB | RB1 |
| Tyler Johnson | WR | WR5 |
| Jordan Whittington | WR | WR6 |
| Demarcus Robinson | WR | WR4/5 |
| Tutu Atwell | WR | WR4 |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | TE2 |
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB2 |
| D’Andre Swift | RB | RB3 |
| Khalil Herbert | RB | RB4 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | RB3 |
| DJ Moore | WR | WR2 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | TBD |
| Rome Odunze | WR | TBD |
| Cole Kmet | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Williams had his best fantasy showing to date last week, tying Bo Nix for the QB12 spot in fantasy. He accomplished this mainly with insane volume as he led the NFL in passing attempts (52) for the week. The rest of his per-dropback metrics were not great. Among 28 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams was 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in passer rating, 19th in CPOE, and he had the seventh-highest off-target rate. We’ll see if Williams can build on last week’s showing against a pushover Rams’ pass defense. Los Angeles has allowed the highest yards per attempt, the most fantasy points passing, the fourth-most passing yards per game, and the second-highest passer rating. Williams has seen the 11th-most hurries this season. He should enjoy some clean pockets this week against a defense that ranks 15th in pressure rate.
It’s time to sound the panic bells and whistles. Last week, Swift played a season-low 53% of the snaps, accruing 15 touches while producing a middling 42 total yards. Swift led the way with a 56% snap rate on rushing plays, but Johnson cut into his passing down role (51% of snaps vs. 42% for Johnson). Swift was also a distant second among the backs in the red zone with a 29% snap rate (Johnson 47%). It’s not hard to see why the Bears are looking to other backs for answers. Among 49 qualifying backs, Swift ranks 34th in explosive run rate, 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 49th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift has a good matchup on the ground again this week, but I highly doubt that he can take advantage of it. The Rams have the fourth-lowest stuff rate while allowing the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the highest rushing success rate, and the third-most rushing yards per game.
The rumblings are that Johnson will be given an extended look this week after his cup of coffee in Week 3. Last week he played 37% of the snaps with 12 touches and 64 total yards. Johnson played 30% of the rushing play snaps, 42% of the passing down snaps, and he had the majority of red zone snaps (47%). He posted some nice tackle breaking numbers in the small sample size (25% missed tackle rate and 2.88 yards after contact per attempt). Johnson is a flex play that could post RB2 numbers in Week 4. The Rams have the fourth-lowest stuff rate while allowing the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt, the highest rushing success rate, and the third-most rushing yards per game.
Moore is the WR29 with a struggling Caleb Williams. He has commanded a 23.7% target share, a 26.5% air-yard share, and a 28.9% first-read share with 1.33 YPRR. Despite his high-volume usage, Moore has only seen one end zone target this season. Shane Waldron has utilized him as an underneath threat with only an 8.9 aDOT and 30% of his target volume coming via screen targets. This is a similar role that Waldron shoved Jaxon Smith-Njigba into last year. The good thing for Moore is that he should be able to make things happen after the catch this week against a Rams’ defense that has allowed the most missed tackles in the NFL. Moore will run about 84% of his routes against Quentin Lake (69.2% catch rate and 111.9 passer rating) and Tre’Davious White (66.7% catch rate and 147.2 passer rating). The Rams have allowed the highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.
Allen managed a limited practice on Wednesday (heel). I’ll update his outlook on Friday. It’s likely a coin flip for him to return this week.
Odunze’s role in the offense will vary greatly for Week 4, depending on Allen’s availability. Once we have a week of practice reports to gauge Allen’s availability, I’ll update Odunze’s outlook with a full write-up.
Last week, Atwell had the second-highest route share among the Rams wide receivers while drawing a 19.2% target share, a 30.8% air-yard share, and a 29.4% first-read share. He produced a sparkling 3.72 YPRR. Over the last two weeks, the Bears have moved toward more two high coverage with the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (54.1%). Against two high, Atwell has had a 21% TPRR and 3.63 YPRR in a small sample. If you’re looking to flex a Rams wide receiver this week, it’s Atwell. Atwell will run about 64% of his routes against Jaylon Jonson (50% catch rate and 35.8 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (59.1% catch rate and 78.6 passer rating). Chicago has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Atwell should lead the way for the Rams receivers this week.
Last week, Kmet had a 58% route share (finally seeing more routes than Gerald Everett) while drawing a 21.2% target share, a 20.6% first read share, and producing 2.94 YPRR with 97 receiving yards. He should be a prominent target again this week for Williams against a vulnerable Rams defense. Los Angeles has allowed the third-most fantasy points per game and the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends. Fire up Kmet as a TE1 this week.
Parkinson again finds himself in the low-end streaming area code of tight ends this week. He has been the clear full-time guy for the Rams with an 83% route share, but he hasn’t drawn much volume with only an 11.8% target share, 0.86 YPRR, and a 10.8% first-read share. The Bears are a favorable matchup for tight ends. They have faced the sixth-fewest targets to the position per game, but they have allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the eighth-highest yards per reception.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Stafford willed the Rams to victory last week against the 49ers. It was an awesome game for the team, but that doesn’t mean Stafford has been good for fantasy. He’s the QB30 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 17th in yards per attempt and passer rating, 24th in CPOE, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. In 1QB formats, he’s not in the starting conversation. Even in Superflex formats, I won’t push back if you want to play a skill player this week over Stafford. Chicago has been a brutal assignment for quarterbacks, allowing the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the third-lowest success rate per dropback, and the second-lowest EPA per dropback.
Last week, Robinson led the Rams wide receivers in route share (89.7%) and air-yard share (42.1%) while drawing a 15.4% target and a 23.5% first-read share. Over the last two weeks, the Bears have moved toward more two high coverage with the seventh-highest rate in the NFL (54.1%). Against two high, Robinson has only seen a 16% TPRR with 0.93 YPRR. This isn’t the week to look to Robinson as a flex play. Robinson will run about 67% of his routes against Jaylon Jonson (50% catch rate and 35.8 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (59.1% catch rate and 78.6 passer rating). Chicago has allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Johnson might not be droppable yet, but there’s no way anyone can feel good about starting him in Week 4. Last week, he split the WR3 role with Jordan Whittington. Johnson had only a 45% route share and a 15.4% target share. Sit Johnson this week. We have to see his route share increase, or he will be droppable.
Whittington split the WR3 role with Tyler Johnson in Week 3. He had only a 35% route share and an 11.5% target share. He’s a must-sit this week, and if his role doesn’t increase in Week 4, he’s droppable.
DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Eagles have the ninth-best neutral script pace and the ninth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Tampa Bay has the dubious honor of having the slowest neutral script pace while sporting the 14th-highest neutral rushing rate.
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | TBD |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | TBD |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1/2 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2/3 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB3 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR1 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | WR5 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
*A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion) didn’t practice on Wednesday. I don’t foresee either playing this week, but if either suits up, they are in your fantasy lineups. If/when they are ruled out, I might be adding some Eagles receiving options not named Jahan Dotson to the Primer.*
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy points per game. He had a bump in the road last week but still looks like a revitalized version of himself. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, 16th in CPOE, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback. The Eagles pass defense is starting to gel, so what looked like a pushover matchup earlier in the season isn’t so easy now. Philadelphia has given up the 10th-lowest CPOE, the 12th-lowest success rate per dropback, and sits at 14th in yards per attempt. Mayfield has the weapons to overcome a tough matchup, but it won’t be easy.
Irving remains White’s handcuff, although he is offering some stand-alone value. Over the last three games, he has played 31-35% of the snaps, averaging 10 touches and 60.6 total yards. It’s a small sample for Irving, but he’s the better rusher. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and ninth in yards after contact per attempt. It’s possible Irving eats into White’s workload as we move through the season, but it hasn’t happened yet. Last week, while he did play 56% of the rushing snaps, he still only had a 17% red zone snap rate. The Eagles’ run defense has some polarizing stats this year so far. They have allowed the highest explosive run rate and have the 11th-lowest stuff rate, but they also have held tough with the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and rushing success rate and the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate. This isn’t a good enough matchup to consider Irving as anything more than desperation flex play.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Anyone who drafted White expecting a volume-driven RB1/2 has to be disappointed. White is the RB34 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.3 touches and 54.7 total yards. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 32nd in explosive run rate and 45th in yards after contact per attempt. The Eagles’ run defense has some polarizing stats this year so far. They have allowed the highest explosive run rate and have the 11th-lowest stuff rate, but they also have held tough with the 12th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and rushing success rate and the fifth-lowest rushing touchdown rate. While you could look at this as a good matchup for White, I’ll be lower than consensus there as White hasn’t been efficient, and he runs behind an offensive line that has the 14th-lowest yards before contact per attempt. It looks like another tough week for White.
McMillan isn’t startable. He has only managed a 7.3% target share and a 22.7% air-yard share. He hasn’t earned more than three targets or finished with more than 32 receiving yards in any game. Last week, with Evans shadowed by Patrick Surtain, instead of volume moving in the direction of McMillan, it went to Cade Otton.
Last week, with Patrick Surtain following Mike Evans on half of his routes, Otton saw a bump in work. He had a 24% target share, 1.62 YPRR, and a 29.4% first-read share. I don’t think that holds into Week 4. Otton likely returns to the role he saw in the first two games of the season when he only had an 8.2% target share, 0.11 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. Philly has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Bengals have the fourth-slowest neutral pace while sporting the second-best neutral passing rate. Last week, with Andy Dalton under center, Carolina ranked 14th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
| Joe Burrow | QB | QB1 |
| Zack Moss | RB | RB2 |
| Chase Brown | RB | RB3/4 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | WR | WR1 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | WR2 |
| Andrei Iosivas | WR | WR3/4 |
| Mike Gesicki | TE | TE1 |
Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Andy Dalton | QB | QB2 |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | RB2/3 |
| Miles Sanders | RB | RB5 |
| Diontae Johnson | WR | WR2 |
| Jonathan Mingo | WR | WR5 |
| Xavier Legette | WR | WR5/6 |
| Tommy Tremble | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Burrow struggled out the gate before turning it on recently as the QB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 20th in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, 14th in highly accurate throw rate, and 19th in fantasy points per dropback. Burrow should enjoy another QB1 outing this week against a Carolina pass defense that has allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt, the second-most passing touchdowns (tied), the third-highest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-highest EPA per dropback.
Dalton hopped off the bench to assume the starting job in Carolina last week, and he performed admirably. He was the QB8 in fantasy last week. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, 18th in CPOE, and first in highly accurate throw rate. We’ll see if Dalton can build upon last week as he stares down what suddenly looks like a shaky Cincy pass defense. The Bengals have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-highest passer rating, the second-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest success rate per dropback.
Moss remains the Bengals’ clear workhorse back, playing at least 65% of the snaps weekly, averaging 13.7 touches and 68.3 total yards. Last week, he absorbed 85% of the red zone snaps, so any worries about Chase Brown are a bit overblown. Among 50 qualifying backs, he ranks 14th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Moss has another plus matchup this week against Carolina, who have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest success rate to gap runs (Moss 55% gap), and the sixth-lowest stuff rate.
Hubbard’s role didn’t change a bunch last week, as he still played 58% of the snaps, but he did roll up 26 touches and 169 total yards as the RB4 for the week. It’s amazing what better quarterback play and a further commitment to running the ball can do for a running back, though. Expect Carolina to lean on him again this week against a Bengals’ run defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest missed tackle rate, and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Higgins didn’t look limited at all in his first game back. He had a 95% route share with a 15.8% target share, a 25.2% air-yard share, 1.00 YPRR, and a 26.1% first-read share. Higgins led the team with two end zone targets. Higgins will run about 88% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (62.5% catch rate and 88.0 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (66.7% catch rate and 86.3 passer rating). Carolina has allowed the third-highest PPR points per target and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Thank you, Andy Dalton. Last week was the version of Diontae Johnson that we thought we were getting this season. He finished the week as the WR6 in fantasy with a 35.1% target share, a 59.1% air-yard share, 3.49 YPRR, and a 44.8% first-read share. Look for Dalton to continue to feed his WR1 this week. Johnson leads the team with five end zone targets. Johnson will run about 80% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (50% catch rate and 95.8 passer rating) and Dax Hill (73% catch rate and 124.4 passer rating). The Bengals have allowed the second-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Over the last two games, Gesicki has been the TE6 in fantasy points per game, earning an 18.9% target share, with a 52% route share, 3.21 YPRR, and a 22.9% first-read share. Now, Gesicki did see his first-read share fall to 13% last week with Higgins back in the lineup, but he maintained a 51.2% route share with a 13.2% target share. He could see those target share numbers swing back in his direction this week against a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the eight-most receiving yard and the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Last week, it might look like Brown was more involved, but he still only played 24% of the snaps. He did manage nine touches and 69 total yards with his 15 offensive snaps, but he remains the clear RB2 on the depth chart. He only had a 37% snap rate on rushing plays, a 17.1% snap rate for passing plays, and 15% of the red zone snaps. Brown remains only a high-end handcuff.
Iosivas saw a big uptick in his effectiveness in Week 3. Yes, partially, this was due to facing the Commanders’ secondary, but also, it was related to him finally playing the slot role that we were promised this season with the return of Tee Higgins. Iosivas had an 18.4% target share, 1.68 YPRR, and a 13% first-read share. He was a distant third option in the passing attack, fighting with Mike Gesicki (13% first-read share) for first-read targets. Iosivas will run about 84% of his routes against Troy Hill (80% catch rate and 80.0 passer rating). Carolina ranks 17th in PPR points per target allowed to slot receivers.
DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET
