Chaos! Calamity! Insanity!

Pick your favorite word to describe the wildness of the 2024 NFL season. They all fit. Elite tight end apparently is no longer a thing. Two-high coverages are choking the life out of NFL offenses (Hi, Mel Kiper). While all of these things will even out and normalize over time, right now, we are trying to make sense of everything for Fantasy Football.

Don’t worry. The Primer arrives every Thursday to provide calm to a Fantasy Football universe devoid of it.

The Week 4 Primer is here. Enjoy.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

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Fantasy Football Primer

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -2.5, O/U 42.5
• New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Saints have the 11th-slowest neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Atlanta leads the NFL in neutral script pace while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate.

Saints Players & Weekly Rankings

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Alvin Kamara
• Bijan Robinson

*Kamara missed Wednesday’s practice (hip/ribs). Right now, I’m still expecting him to play in Week 4.*

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Chris Olave (WR)

Olave is the WR29 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 21.5% target share, a 29.7% air-yard share, and a 26.1% first read-share while producing 3.12 YPRR. Among 94 qualifying receivers, Olave ranks third in separation and second in route win rate. He remains one of the best route runners in the NFL. Olave has the only end zone target among the wide receivers. The Falcons have the sixth-highest rate of single-high (60.7%). Olave leads the team with a 26.3% target share, 3.44 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share against single-high. Olave will run about 78% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (84.6% catch rate and 102.2 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (62.5% catch rate and 83.9 passer rating). Atlanta has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Drake London (WR)

London was essentially blanked in Week 1. In the two games after that, he has established himself as the team’s WR1 with a 27.6% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 2.24 YPRR, and a 43.2% first-read share. Over the last two games, London has led the team with three end-zone targets. Over the last two weeks, the Saints have transitioned to more two high (eighth-highest rate of two high, 51.6%). Since Week 2, against two high, London has seen a 32.1% target share, a 41.9% air-yard share, and a 47.4% first-read share with 2.39 YPRR. He should lead the way this week against a tough Saints’ secondary. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Shaheed’s fast start to the 2024 season came to a screeching halt last week as he failed to secure any of his five targets. It was a tough day overall for the Saints offense, with the exception of Chris Olave. Despite the tough week for Shaheed, he remains the WR27 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 21.5% target share, a 47.2% air-yard share, and a 28.3% first-read share with 3.02 YPRR. The Falcons have the sixth-highest rate of single-high (60.7%). Against single-high, Shaheed has a 21.1% target share, a 44.8% air-yard share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 25.9% first-read share. These are strong numbers. There are reasons to worry about Shaheed, though. The Falcons have had teams attempt the fourth-fewest deep passes against them with the 10th-lowest passer rating allowed to passes 20 yards or further downfield. Shaheed leads the team with six deep targets which has accounted for 43% of his target volume. Could he connect on a deep target and pay off? Yep. It’s just tough to project with the sample size we have. Shaheed will run about 69% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (84.6% catch rate and 102.2 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (62.5% catch rate and 83.9 passer rating). Atlanta has allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is the WR35 in fantasy points per game. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 24.1% target share, a 32.0% air-yard share, 2.66 YPRR, and a 27.0% first-read share. He has been surpassing any expectations I had for him this season. It’s been truly impressive. Over the last two weeks, the Saints have transitioned to more two high (eighth-highest rate of two high, 51.6%). Since Week 2, against two high, Mooney has had a 21.4% target share, 3.32 YPRR, and a 21.1% first-read share. Temper expectations for him this week against a stout New Orleans secondary. New Orleans has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

In Week 3, Pitts saw his route share drop to 65% after he was sitting at 75% in the first two games of the season. I think Atlanta’s new offensive coordinator is struggling with how and when to deploy Pitts, as we’ve seen his slot rate drop and his inline rate increase to 48-55% over the last two games. Overall, Pitts has an 11.9% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, a 1.64 YPRR, and a frightening 7.4% first-read share. Pitts has been an afterthought in Cousins’ progressions. The Pitts’ hope is on life support right now. I’m hoping that a solid matchup against the Saints could help him rebound this week. New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most receptions, the third-most receiving yards, and the second-highest yards per reception to tight ends. If Pitts doesn’t make it happen this week, he could be permanently parked on fantasy benches until he starts producing.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Derek Carr (QB)

The train had to go off the tracks at some point this season. I’ll be honest: I didn’t expect it to be this quick or against the Eagles last week, but it happened. Carr fell apart with 142 passing yards, a 56% completion rate, and 5.6 yards per attempt. He finished as the QB25 in fantasy as he was under duress on 48% of his dropbacks (fifth-highest rate in Week 3). Even after that horrendous game, he still ranks first in yards per attempt, third in passer rating, and second in CPOE and fantasy points per dropback. Carr has another tough test this week. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, and the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to passing. Carr won’t be able to draw upon his play-action superpowers, either (seventh in play-action dropbacks). Atlanta has faced the most play-action passing attempts this season while holding offenses to the eighth-lowest play-action yards per attempt (zero play-action passing touchdowns).

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Cousins has been performing as a lackluster QB2 this season. He’s the QB27 in fantasy points per game. Among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 18th in CPOE, 15th in yards per attempt, and 17th in fantasy points per dropback. Cousins likely continues that type of fantasy output this week. New Orleans has allowed only one passing touchdown this season. They have held passers to the 11th-fewest fantasy points passing, the seventh-lowest success rate per dropback, and the fifth-lowest EPA per dropback.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill is your weekly gamble at tight end. This bet doesn’t feel as good as it did last year, though. He has played 32-47% of the snaps weekly, averaging only five touches and 27.5 total yards. Hill hasn’t seen a red zone target or rushing attempt yet. He missed last week’s game with a chest injury.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• PIT -1.5, O/U 40
• Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Steelers have the seventh-slowest neutral pace and the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Indy has the third-best neutral pace while also rocking the second-highest neutral rushing rate.

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Fields (QB)

Fields might be the QB20 in fantasy points per game for the season, but he finished as the QB12 in fantasy last week. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 11th in CPOE and 14th in passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. He has been throwing underneath a ton, ranking 24th in yards per attempt and 31st in aDOT. That’s not great, but outside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, this passing offense lacks weapons. Fields has a wonderful matchup this week, which should result in another QB1 outing. Indy has allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest passer rating and passing yards per game, and the third-highest CPOE. Add a great passing matchup on top of Fields rushing upside, and we could get a smash game from him. Fields ranks top five among quarterbacks in carries, red zone carries, and rushing touchdowns. He is also eighth in rushing yards per game.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris didn’t practice on Wednesday. He left last week’s game with a sling on his right arm. He status for Week 4 is up in the air. We need a full week of news and practice reports before I dive into his outlook against the Colts. Cordarrelle Patterson could be the team’s leadback for Week 4.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Warren didn’t practice on Wednesday as he tends to a knee injury. He has been described as week-to-week. We’ll see if he practices this week, but I’m not hopeful that he plays this week. If his practice reports and word around the team lean the other way by Friday, I’ll update his section of the Primer with a full write-up.

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens should explode this week. He is the WR50 in fantasy points per game and is due for a huge game. He has a 24% target share, a 49.9% air-yard share, 2.41 YPRR, and a 31.4% first-read share. He’s tied for the team lead with one end-zone target. Among 96 qualifying receivers, he ranks 10th in separation and route win rate. Indy has the 10th-highest rate of single-high (57.1%). Against single high, Pickens has seen his YPRR jump to 2.90 and his first-read share climb to 51.7%. These are bonkers numbers. Pickens will run about 75% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (64.7% catch rate and 55.6 passer rating), Dallis Flowers (100% catch rate and 104.2 passer rating), and Samuel Womack lll (100% catch rate and 131.3 passer rating). Indy has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Freiermuth is the TE14, with a 17.2% target share and 17.6% first-read share with 1.48 YPRR. Among 33 qualifying tight ends, he ranks fourth in separation and third in route win rate. He is a locked-in TE1 this week. Indy has the 10th-highest rate of single-high (57.1%). Against single high, Freiermuth has a 22.5% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 20.7% target share. Indy has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Anthony Richardson (QB)

Richardson’s QB4 finish in fantasy seems like a distant memory for most right now after his QB21 and QB31 finishes over the last two weeks. Growing pains were always likely part of the deal with Richardson for 2024. While his rushing has been present, it hasn’t been to the levels we hoped. He still ranks top-six among quarterbacks in carries per game (sixth), rushing yards per game (fifth), and red zone carries per game (sixth). Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, Richardson does rank eighth in yards per attempt, but after that, it gets ugly fast as he’s 33rd in CPOE, 31st in highly accurate throw rate, and he has the highest off-target throw rate. Richardson retains QB1 status barely this week because of his rushing ability, but it’s a tough matchup for him as a passer. Pittsburgh has allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest CPOE, and the fourth-lowest success rate and EPA per dropback.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Last week, despite being banged up, Pittman played his usual role with a 73% route share, a 25% target share, a 26.4% air-yard share, and with a 26.7% first-read share. However, I will note that his first-read share was second on the team to Downs (33.3%). Downs played his usual slot role but had a 40% designed target rate and a 1.8 aDOT. Overall, this season, Pittman has a 27.4% target share, a 23.7% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. Downgrade Pittman this week as he’ll get shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. (66.7% catch rate and 85.4 passer rating). Porter Jr. has shadowed in all three games this season (65-85% of routes), holding Drake London, Courtland Sutton, and Quentin Johnston all below 50 receiving yards.

Josh Downs (WR)

In Downs’ first action of the season, he had a 73% route share, a 25% target share, only a 1.8 aDOT, and a 40% designed target rate. He was the underneath receiver as he ran all of his routes from the slot. Downs will tangle with Beanie Bishop (82% catch rate and 133.3 passer rating) all day. This isn’t a week to get excited about Downs, as the Steelers have allowed the 11th-lowest PPR points per target and the 10th-fewest receiving yards per game to opposing slot receivers.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Last week, with the return of Downs to the lineup, Pierce retained his full-time outside receiver role with a 77% route share as Adonai Mitchell was sent to the bench. This season, Pierce has been the team’s field stretcher with a 17.8% target share, a 38.4% air-yard share (25.2 aDOT), 3.36 YPRR, and an 18% first-read share. This isn’t a week to start Pierce or get excited about his outlook. Pittsburgh has allowed only one of seven deep attempts to be completed this season and have allowed the third-lowest CPOE to targets downfield. Sit Pierce this week. He will see Donte Jackson (54.5% catch rate and 38.1 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

• GB -2.5, O/U 43.5
• Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Jordan Love under center, the Packers ranked third in neutral script pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
• Minnesota ranks 19th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate.

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Jacobs
• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Darnold has been nothing short of amazing this season. He’s the QB4 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, ninth in CPOE, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. It’s amazing what a good coordinator and scheme can do for a player. Darnold is in the midst of reviving his NFL career. If you want a feel-good story each NFL season, Danold’s should be front and center. Darnold should keep the feel-good train rolling down the tracks this week. The Packers’ pass defense has been exploitable this season. They have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback.

Aaron Jones (RB)

I was told all offseason that Jones was “too old” and “too injury prone.” Well, he looks pretty pretty good so far this season. Jones is the RB10 in fantasy, averaging 18 touches and 108.3 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranks eighth in explosive run rate, ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Yeah, those are good numbers, people. Tell me he isn’t motivated to face the Packers and put up a monster stat line in Week 4. Jones should have the opportunity to do it this week. Green Bay has allowed the third-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest yard per carry to zone runs (Jones 55% zone).

Christian Watson (WR)

Watson has seen his route share cut as the Packers changed up personnel and groupings weekly with Malik Willis at the helm. Watson has had only a 55.7% route share with a 10.3% target share, a 21.7% air-yard share, 1.82 YPRR, and an 11.5% first-read share. He leads the team with three end zone targets. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (77.9%). Green Bay has faced the lowest rate of two high this season (30.4%), so we are working with small samples for 2024. Looking back to 2023, Watson led the team with a 17.6% target share and seven end zone targets against two high while also ranking second in TPRR (24%) and first-read share (21.5%). Watson could lead the way against Minnesota if his 2023 usage holds. Watson will run about 66% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (84.2% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (44.4% catch rate and 58.6 passer rating).

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed also could be heavily utilized this week. He has a 71% route share this season with a 20.6% target share, an 18.8% air-yard share, 3.52 YPRR, and a 23.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead). Dairybelt Deebo Samuel has retained his rushing usage this season, averaging 29.7 rushing yards per game. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (77.9%). Green Bay has faced the lowest rate of two high this season (30.4%), so we are working with small samples for 2024. Looking back to 2023, Reed was first in TPRR (25%), second in YPRR (2.37), and third in first-read share (17.3%) against two high. Reed draws the best corner matchup for Green Bay, running about 84% of his routes against Byron Murphy (73% catch rate and 117.4 passer rating).

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs leads the team with a 76% route share while also handling a 17.6% target share, a 35% air-yard share, and a 23.1% first-read share (tied for the team lead) with 2.17 YPRR. Doubs is second on the team with two end zone targets. Minnesota has the highest two high rate in the NFL (77.9%). Green Bay has faced the lowest rate of two high this season (30.4%), so we are working with small samples for 2024. Looking back to 2023, Doubs was second on the team with a 16.9% target share, fifth in TPRR (22%), third in YPRR (1.70), and first in end zone targets and first-read share (21.5%). The Packers could go in a number of directions this week when designing an attack plan against this Vikings’ secondary. Doubs will run about 90% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (84.2% catch rate and 96.3 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (44.4% catch rate and 58.6 passer rating).

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison practiced in a limited fashion (ankle) to open the week. I’ll update his outlook on Friday, but it’s a good sign that maybe returns this week. He didn’t practice at all last week.

Jalen Nailor (WR)

Nailor has been on fire as the WR33 in fantasy. He has made the most of his opportunities. He has only drawn an 11.5% target share, a 23% air-yard share, and a 14.6% first-read share, but he’s produced 0.106 FD/RR. He also converted three of his team-leading four end zone targets with scores. Green Bay has the 13th-highest single-high rate (56.7%). Against single-high, Nailor has a 17.5% target share, 2.0 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. We’ll see if he can keep riding the lightning in Week 4 while running about 64% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (63% catch rate and 79.9 passer rating) and Eric Stokes (73% catch rate and 118.0 passer rating).

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Kraft remains Green Bay’s starting tight end. Last week, he got dinged up in the game, so his route share dropped to 40%, but he still led Luke Musgrave (36%). Overall, this season, Kraft has had a 50% route share with an 11.8% target share, 1.93 YPRR, and a 7.7% first-read share. The volume and first-read share are problems, but the matchup is pretty good for Kraft. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-highest yards per reception and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Kraft is a low-end matchup-based streamer this week.

Fantasy Football Week 4 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jordan Love (QB)

I expect Love to make his return to the huddle in Week 4. In his only action this year, he was the QB11 for the week. Among 35 qualifying quarterbacks, he is 12th in yards per attempt and 11th in fantasy points per dropback, but that’s where the good times end. Among that sample, he also has the second-lowest CPOE and the third-highest off-target rate. Now, take into account this is a one-game sample, so let’s not get too crazy. This isn’t the prettiest matchup for Love to make his return to the huddle, but Green Bay needs him against this tough Brian Flores defense. Minnesota has held passers to the fourth-lowest EPA per dropback, the fifth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the 12th-lowest yards per attempt. In true Flores fashion, Minnesota ranks fourth in pressure rate and sixth in blitz rate. Last year, Love was amazing against the blitz, with the second-highest passer grade and the third-highest big-time throw rate. We’ll see if he’s mobile enough in the pocket to buy time against the blitz.

DAL vs. NYG | NO vs. ATL | PIT vs. IND | MIN vs. GB | JAC vs. HOU | LAR vs. CHI | PHI vs. TB | CIN vs. CAR | DEN vs. NYJ | WAS vs. ARI | NE vs. SF | CLE vs. LV | KC vs. LAC | BUF vs. BAL | TEN vs. MIA | SEA vs. DET