Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
Pace and playcalling notes
- Detroit ranks third in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.
- The Cardinals are 14th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral passing rate. This game will have a ton of passing volume.
Lions Players & Weekly Rankings
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jared Goff (QB)
Through two games, Goff is the QB26 in fantasy. Goff has had a rough start to the 2024 season, but this week’s matchup could be the “get right” elixir he needs desperately. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Goff ranks 25th in yards per attempt, 27th in passer rating, 30th in CPOE, and 31st in fantasy points per dropback. The Cardinals are a wonderful matchup at just the right time. They have allowed the second-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, the highest dropback success rate, and the 12th-highest CPOE.
David Montgomery (RB)
Montgomery is the RB14 in fantasy, averaging 42% of the snaps with 16.5 touches and 81.5 total yards per game. Among 40 qualifying backs, he is ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces what appears to be a tough run defense for Arizona through two games. The Cardinals have allowed the 10th-lowest missed tackle rate and the fifth-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Montgomery likely needs a touchdown to pay off in fantasy this week.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
I know I cast some doubt on Harrison Jr. in last week’s Primer. I wasn’t willing to overreact to a one-game sample, but I had to be honest with the data that we had, which wasn’t kind. Hey, what do you know? Harrison Jr. is good at football, though. Who knew? He destroyed every corner in his path last week. Among 87 qualifying receivers last week, he ranked 12th in separation and 19th in route win rate. Harrison had a 38.1% target share, a 69.2% air-yard share, 5.65 YPRR, and a 40% first-read share. Harrison Jr. will run about 78% of his routes this week against Carlton Davis (72.2% catch rate and 120.4 passer rating) and Terrion Arnold (84.6% catch rate and 133.7 passer rating). Harrison Jr. should be fed again this week.
Jameson Williams (WR)
Good lawd, it’s so fun to watch Williams tear it up so far in 2024 as the WR8 in fantasy. This is the player that I loved as a prospect. Watching him harness his talent and rip secondaries apart has been a blessing. Williams has a 23.8% target share, a 47.2% air-yard share, 2.63 YPRR, and a 34.5% first-read share. Among 92 qualifying wide receivers, Williams is sixth in separation and ninth in route win rate. Oh, baby, those numbers all jump off the page. Williams will run about 71% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (71.4% catch rate and 89.6 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (42.9% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating).
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Michael Wilson (WR)
Wilson has been an afterthought in this passing attack as Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, and sometimes Greg Dortch have been the target earners. Wilson has only a 7.7% target share and an 8.3% first-read share. He’s droppable at this point.
Greg Dortch (WR)
Dortch saw his route share drop to 42% in Week 2 as he saw only a 9.5% target share and a 13.3% first-read share. With his playing time fluctuating wildly week to week, he’s tough to trust in a fantasy lineup. He’s droppable if you have a strong name available on the waiver wire.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
Pace and playcalling notes
- Kansas City is the surprising slow and run-heavy team right now, but I expect that to change with the injury to Isaiah Pacheco. The Chiefs are 15th in neutral pace and 24th in neutral passing rate.
- Atlanta leads the league in neutral pace while sitting at 13th in neutral rushing rate.
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Carson Steele (RB)
Last week, Steele played 22% of the snaps, with his seven carries producing 24 rushing yards. He should take over the early down role for Kansas City this week. Last week, he handled 38% of the goal-line snaps and 60% of the short-yardage snaps. With his limited work this season, he has produced a 22% missed tackle rate and 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. The Falcons’ run defense is a mixed bag so far. They have given up the 12th-lowest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt while also having the fifth-lowest stuff rate, the 12th-highest gap yards per carry, and the fifth-highest gap run success rate allowed (Steele 56% gap). Steele could get there this week with volume and a short porch touchdown.
Drake London (WR)
Last week, London bounced back with a WR19 finish, a 24.1% target share, 1.86 YPRR, and a 46.7% first-read share. While Darnell Mooney finished with a strout stat line, London is the undisputed WR1 of this offense. Last week, among 69 qualifying wide receivers, London ranked third in separation and fifth in route win rate. We’ll see if London can build upon his bounce-back game in Week 3. Kansas City has allowed the 10th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. London will run about 72% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (42.9% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (63.6% catch rate and 135.4 passer rating).
Xavier Worthy (WR)
Worthy has a 68% route share with a 13.2% target share, a 27.1% air-yard share, 1.52 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Last week, his route share dropped to 61% while he was still second on the team with a 16% target share and a 21.1% first-read share. Atlanta has the 12th-highest single-high rate this season (58.5%). Against single-high this season, it has been all Rashee Rice, as Worthy has only a 10.7% target share and a 14.3% first-read share. We’ll see if that changes this week. Worthy could also get shadow coverage from A.J. Terrell, but that might not be a bad thing. Terrell followed George Pickens and DeVonta Smith on 58-80% of their routes this season, allowing them to secure nine of their 11 targets with 141 receiving yards. Worthy carries a wide range of outcomes this week.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Kirk Cousins (QB)
Last week, Cousins bounced back as the QB8 in fantasy. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked seventh in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE and hero throw rate, and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. The Chiefs pass defense looks middle-of-the-road after two games, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, giving up the 11th-highest passer rating, and sitting at 14th in CPOE. The way this week goes sideways for Cousins is if Kansas City’s pass rush gets home. Cousins has faced the seventh-lowest pressure rate, but he has fallen apart when pressured, ranking 19th in pressured passing grade with the fifth-highest turnover-worthy play rate. The Chiefs are fifth in blitz rate and seventh in pressure rate.
Samaje Perine (RB)
If you picked up Perine off of waivers, hold him on your roster, but don’t start him this week. Perine has played 14-15% of snaps this season, with his only contributions coming from the passing game (1.5 targets per game and 6.5 receiving yards per game). He didn’t play any early down snaps last week. He did have 80% of the third down snaps and 33% of the two-minute drill work. His role has to expand before he’s a possibility for fantasy lineups. The Falcons have allowed the fifth-fewest receptions and the ninth-fewest receiving yards to backs this season.
Darnell Mooney (WR)
Last week, Mooney popped off with a WR18 finish with a 24.1% target share, a 45.3% air-yard share, 2.93 YPRR, and a 26.7% first-read share. He was seventh in separation and third in route win rate against 69 qualifying receivers. His downfield skill set (15.1 aDOT last week) doesn’t lend itself to this week’s matchup. Last year Kansas City allowed the 11th-lowest passer rating and the seventh-lowest CPOE to deep passing. This fits with their two high coverage approach (second-highest two high usage, 71% of snaps). Mooney will run about 56% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (42.9% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (63.6% catch rate and 135.4 passer rating). Sit Mooney this week.
Kyle Pitts (TE)
Pitts is the TE8 in fantasy points per game with a 12.7% target share, 1.05 YPRR, and a 6.3% first-read share. So far this season, sadly, he has been a distant fourth in the target pecking order. This hopefully corrects itself over time because Pitts route metrics remain solid. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he is 15th in separation and third in route win rate. Falcons’ new offensive coordinator seems like he is still figuring out how he wants to deploy Pitts. In Week 1, he had a 63% slot rate, but in Week 2, he was 55% inline. Kansas City has the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (71%). Pitts is tied for the team lead with a 22.5% target share against two high. Pitts is another player with a wide range of possible outcomes this week. Last year, Kansas City was tough on tight ends, allowing the ninth-fewest receiving yard and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Jaguars are seventh in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.
- The Bills have gone full “establish it” mode with the eighth-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings
Bills Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Keon Coleman (WR)
Which version of Coleman’s usage do we get in Week 3? He has eclipsed 80% route shares in each game, but he only drew one target in Week 2 as the game script went sideways quickly. In Week 1, Coleman led the team with a 21.7% target share, a 28.1% air-yard share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 31.3% first-read share. This is a good matchup for get Coleman, Shakir, Kincaid, or all of them going. The question every week now is how much passing volume we get from Buffalo and what matchup Joe Brady wants to lean on. It has become an unsettling dice roll with an offense that we previously never had to question passing volume with. Coleman will match up against Ronald Darby (70% catch rate and 145.8 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (71.4% catch rate and 82.1 passer rating) all day.
Khalil Shakir (WR)
This is a good matchup for Shakir in the slot. He has a 19% target share, 2.74 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share this season. His per-route efficiency has never been in question, just his target drawing ability, but we are seeing that expand some this season. Although the Bills have been so run-centric, it has limited all of their passing weapons. If Allen throws more this week, Shakir should have a solid day. Shakir will run about 77% of his routes against Jarrian Jones (75% catch rate and 108.9 passer rating). The Jaguars are 15th in receiving yards allowed to the slot.
Dalton Kincaid (TE)
Kincaid saw more action last week with a 70% route share, but the game got out of hand quickly, and the Bills didn’t have to throw after that point. Last week, he had a 21.1% target share with 2.36 YPRR and a 50% first-read share. The Bills were trying to get him going. The problem is this offense is so run-heavy now, and the defense is amazing, so it has been limiting Kincaid and others’ passing volume. If the Bills are forced to pass, Kincaid should have a juicy stat line this week. Last year, Jacksonville allowed the ninth-most receiving yards and the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Trevor Lawrence (QB)
Lawrence has been a disappointing QB2 in fantasy this season (QB23). I don’t see that changing in Week 3. Lawrence ranks 14th in yards per attempt, 22nd in passer rating, and 23rd in CPOE. He faces a nasty Bills’ pass defense that has shut down quarterbacks. Buffalo has allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the 14th-lowest CPOE.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)
Thomas Jr. has been a big play specialist so far this season with his 16.3 aDOT. He has a 15.7% target share, a 23.6% air-yard share, 3.07 YPRR, and a 20.5% first-read share. He is tied for second on the team with one end-zone target. Buffalo has the third-highest rate of two high coverage (69.5%). This year against two-high, Thomas Jr. has a 19% target share, 3.47 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Buffalo has been tough on perimeter wide receivers, allowing the second-lowest PPR points per target. If you’re flexing Thomas Jr., it’s a bet on talent and just maybe one splash play making his fantasy day. He’ll run about 73% of his routes against Christian Benford (40% catch rate and 8.3 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (71.4% catch rate and 90.8 passer rating).
Christian Kirk (WR)
Kirk has been simply dreadful this season. There’s no way anyone can feel good about putting him into a lineup right now. He has only a 13.7% target share, a 22.2% air-yard share, 0.59 YPRR, and a 17.9% first-read share as the WR98 in fantasy. It has been wild how far he’s fallen from last year’s stats. If you are desperate for a flex play this week, the coverage matchup dictates that he should be utilized this week. Buffalo has the third-highest rate of two high coverage (69.5%). This year against two-high, Kirk has a 19% target share, a 40.9% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share.
Gabriel Davis (WR)
Davis is the WR51, seeing a 19.6% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, and a 20.5% first-read share, producing 2.02 YPRR. He is tied for second on the team with one end-zone target. I know we have the revenge game narrative for Davis, but I don’t have a ton of interest in playing him this week against a secondary that has given up the second-lowest PPR points per target to outside wide receivers. Sit Davis this week. He’ll run about 73% of his routes against Christian Benford (40% catch rate and 8.3 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (71.4% catch rate and 90.8 passer rating).
Curtis Samuel (WR)
Samuel remains unplayable in fantasy. Last week, he still wasn’t a full-time player, with only a 40% route share. Maybe that increases in Week 3, but we have to see it first before we consider dropping him into our fantasy lineups.
Evan Engram (TE)
Engram hurt his hamstring in warm ups for last week’s game. I highly doubt he plays this week. I would already have a plan in place to stream a tight end for Week 3. Engram didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Commanders have the third-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Cincy is still pass-happy (second in neutral passing rate), but they are a slow-moving offense (eighth-slowest neutral pace).
Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings
Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Jayden Daniels (QB)
Daniels is the QB6 in fantasy points per game, which is all thanks to his legs, as his passing metrics are not great. Among quarterbacks, he is first in rushing attempts per game, second in rushing yards per game, and first in rushing touchdowns. Daniels has had a 5.2 and 4.7 aDOT in his first two games, with check-down rates of 16.7% and 6.9%. This is a brutal matchup for Daniels through the air as Cincy has allowed the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and the 12th-lowest passer rating and CPOE. Look for Daniels to be running often against a defense that is fifth in pressure rate.
Joe Burrow (QB)
Burrow showed some life last week as the QB10 in fantasy. This week, it’s liftoff time. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Burrow is 23rd in yards per attempt and 22nd in fantasy points per dropback, but he’s also third in CPOE and 11th in passer rating. The matchup is right for a ceiling performance from Burrow. The Commanders have given up the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, the ninth-highest CPOE, and the most fantasy points per passing.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)
Robinson Jr. is the RB15 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in explosive run rate, 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. He has averaged a 58% snap rate with 16.5 touches and 112.5 total yards per game. The Bengals remain a wonderful run funnel with the ninth-lowest stuff rate while giving up the third-highest missed tackle rate and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Zack Moss (RB)
Moss has been the team’s clear workhorse this season, which is totally different from the vibes that came out of training camp. Moss has averaged a 73% snap rate with 12 touches and 54 total yards per game. I know those aren’t amazing numbers. They aren’t, but Moss is still the clear “guy” in this backfield. His tackle-breaking metrics are also lackluster. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Moss has a chance to improve all of his numbers this week with a solid matchup against the Commanders’ run defense. Washington has permitted the ninth-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the eighth-highest yards before contact per attempt.
Tee Higgins (WR)
Higgins looks to be back this week. Last year, he dealt with hamstring issues, missing Weeks 10-12. When he returned in Week 13, he had a 64% route share, a 7.7% target share, a 24.8% air-yard share, 1.33 YPRR, and an 11.1% first-read share. Hopefully, Higgins will be healthier this time around because the matchup is glorious this week. Assuming Higgins is good to go, he should be in your lineups as a WR3. Washington’s weak secondary has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Higgins will run about 82% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (61.1% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating), Noah Igbinoghene (33.3% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating), and Michael Davis (60% catch rate and 103.7 passer rating).
Andrei Iosivas (WR)
Iosivas hasn’t seen the production so far that many had hoped to this point. Despite having a 90% route share, he has only managed a 15.4% target share, 0.49 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. This can be traced to his lack of efficiency on a per-route basis. Among 92 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 56th in separation and 76th in route win rate. That could change this week against Washington’s weak secondary that has allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. Iosivas will run about 68% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (61.1% catch rate and 118.8 passer rating), Noah Igbinoghene (33.3% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating), and Michael Davis (60% catch rate and 103.7 passer rating).
Zach Ertz (TE)
Ertz is the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 15.1% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 18th in separation and fifth in route win rate. Ertz is a wonderful streamer this week and should be ranked as a low-end TE1. Last year, Cincy allowed the second-most receiving yards and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Austin Ekeler (RB)
Ekeler has been a viable, if not strong, flex play after two weeks. He has averaged a 48% snap rate with 8.5 touches and 73.5 total yards per game. His snap rates haven’t changed much overall to when the Commanders have been trailing, so even if we project Washington to trail for much of this game, it won’t bump up Ekeler. Ekeler has logged a 20% missed tackle forced rate and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt, which aren’t bad metrics at all, even with the small early down sample size. The Bengals were tough against receiving backs last year, allowing the seventh-fewest receiving yards and the 10th-fewest receptions. This is a week to sit Ekeler.
Chase Brown (RB)
Brown is a hold on rosters as a solid handcuff, but he’s not playable in fantasy right now. Brown has only averaged a 27% snap rate with five touches and 27 total yards per game. He has only a 20.8% red zone snap rate, so we can’t even hold out hope for a random touchdown. His usage has to increase for him to be viable for fantasy lineups.
Terry McLaurin (WR)
McLaurin is the only receiver that’s currently fantasy viable in the Commanders passing attack. He is the only wide receiver that logged at least a 60% route share last week (McLaurin 79%). Last week, his usage bumped up with a 27.6% target share, a 22.9% air-yard share, and a 31.8% first-read share. The problem for McLaurin and this offense is that it is in dink and dunk mode. McLaurin’s 0.73 YPRR can be traced to his 3.8 aDOT. It’s tough for any wide receiver to produce with basically elongated handoffs every play. I’m not trying to wedge McLaurin into fantasy lineups this week against a secondary that has allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers. McLaurin will run about 81% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (50% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating) and Dax Hill (62.5% catch rate and 75 passer rating).
Mike Gesicki (TE)
Last week, Gesicki led the three-way Bengals tight end committee with a 53% route share with a 25% target share, a 22.6% air-yard share, 4.14 YPRR, and a 32% first-read share. Those per-route numbers are nearly impossible for Gesicki to replicate weekly, but it’s a good sign that he will be involved in the passing attack when on the field. Last year, Washington allowed the ninth-fewest receptions and the fifth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
Pace and playcalling notes
- New England has fielded one of the slowest and most run-heavy offensive attacks in the NFL. Through two games, they have the fourth-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The Jets have had a middling offensive pace and passing approach. They have the 12th-slowest neutral pace and rank 15th in neutral passing rate.
Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Aaron Rodgers (QB)
After two games of action this season, Rodgers looks like a player that is still shaking off the rust as this offense finds its legs. Rodgers is the QB21 in fantasy points per game, with a better showing in Week 2 (QB10). Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers is 20th in yards per attempt and 25th in CPOE. He has also quietly displayed that the arm talent is still there, as he is 14th in highly accurate throw rate and 10th in hero throw rate. Rodgers should have his best game of this young season in Week 3 against the Patriots. New England’s pass defense outside of Christian Gonzalez has stunk. They have allowed the highest CPOE, the 11th-highest passer rating, and the eighth-most passing yards per game. Rodgers should have all day in the pocket against a pass rush that has generated the third-lowest pressure rate.
Allen Lazard (WR)
After a banner Week 1 performance, Lazard predictably came crashing back to earth. He had a 67% route share in Week 2 with a 13.3% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, 0.50 YPRR, and a 15.8% first-read share (third on the team). Lazard ran about 55% of his routes from the slot in Week 2. Through two weeks of action, New England is ninth in two-high rate (50.6%). Against two-high, Lazard has been heavily involved with a 22.6% target share, a 43.7% air-yard share, 1.84 YPRR, and a 26.1% first-read share (second on the team). With Christian Gonzalez likely glued to Garrett Wilson all game, Lazard will see Marcus Jones (69.2% catch rate and 84.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (60% catch rate and 74.6 passer rating) all day. Don’t be surprised if Lazard bounces back with another solid (flex-worthy) outing for Week 3.
Hunter Henry (TE)
After Henry’s monster Week 2 game, overall this season, he has a 27.5% target share, a 31.6% air-yard share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Henry has one of only two end zone targets for the team this season. Henry should follow up that insane game with another solid showing in Week 3. The New York Jets have the seventh-highest rate of two high (51.7%). Last year against two high, among 38 qualifying tight ends, Henry ranked fourth in separation and second in route win rate. Last season, New York allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the second-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Brissett has played the role of game manager so far. The Patriots have fielded an ultra-conservative offense as Brissett has the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, and the 12th-fewest passing attempts. Brissett also ranks 18th in CPOE and 26th in fantasy points per dropback. Much like the New York offense, the defense for the Jets continues to find their way. While they have allowed the eighth-highest CPOE and the 11th-highest yards per attempt, this defense is still not one that I want to target in fantasy. New York has generated the 12th-best pressure rate and given up the third-fewest passing touchdowns. I don’t expect that New England will attempt to test this defense much in Week 3. Brissett is the QB29 in fantasy points per game and is a sit this week in all formats.
Mike Williams (WR)
Williams saw his snap rate jump from 18% in Week 1 to 65% against the Titans. It only amounted to one target in the passing attack, but the bigger takeaway is that he could be a full-time player by Week 4 or Week 5. He remains unstartable in fantasy for Week 3, but he should be stashed on rosters where you can. This passing attack is extremely consolidated, and Williams could see a consistent 20% target share once he is fully up to speed.
Tyler Conklin (TE)
Conklin has been an afterthought in the Jets offense. This season, he has a pitiful 5.1% target share with a grand total of 3.6 PPR points scored. He’s droppable at this point and not close to being on the fantasy radar. Last year, the Patriots allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
***This is another week to fully fade every New England Patriots pass catcher not named Hunter Henry. Only DeMario Douglas and Henry had at least 70% route shares, and no one in the passing attack outside of Henry had above an 11.1% target share. Continue to stash Ja’Lynn Polk if you want, but everyone outside of Henry on the receiving depth chart is droppable in redraft formats.***
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*
