Houston Texans vs. Minnesota Vikings
Pace and playcalling notes
- Bobby Slowik has me feeling things after Week 2. Houston operated its offense how I envisioned this offseason, ranking sixth in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate.
- Minnesota has ranked 18th in neutral pace while firing up the passing rate (sixth-highest).
Texans Players & Weekly Rankings
| C.J. Stroud | QB | QB1 |
| Joe Mixon | RB | RB1 |
| Nico Collins | WR | WR1 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WR3 |
| Tank Dell | WR | WR3 |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE2 |
Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings
| Sam Darnold | QB | QB2 |
| Aaron Jones | RB | RB2 |
| Ty Chandler | RB | RB3/4 |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR1 |
| Jordan Addison | WR | TBD |
| Jalen Nailor | WR | WR4/5 |
| Johnny Mundt | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Diggs is the WR23 in fantasy, with his two touchdowns in Week 1 doing the heavy lifting there. He has secured a 17.6% target share, a 12.3% air-yard share (5.2 aDOT), and a 20.5% first-read share as the team’s starting slot. Diggs will face a Minnesota secondary that has deployed two high at the highest rate in the NFL (78.5%). Against two-high, Diggs has been third in the target pecking order with a 12.5% target share and a 16.7% first-read share, each of which fall behind Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Diggs does draw a favorable corner matchup, though, as he will match up with Byron Murphy (78.6% catch rate and 105.4 passer rating) all day.
Dell has had a quiet start to the season as the WR73 with a 16.2% target share, a 30.6% air-yard share, 0.60 YPRR, and a 15.4% first-read share. Among 84 qualifying receivers, he ranks 45th in separation and 52nd in route win rate. Dell was too good last year not to find his stride as the season progresses, so stay the course with this talent. He will tangle with a Minny secondary that has utilized two high at the highest rate in the NFL (78.5%). Against two high, Dell has a 15.6% target share, a 31.9% air-yard share, and a 22.2% first read share. He should be number two in line for targets this week after Collins. Dell will run about 72% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (76.9% catch rate and 98.2 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (66.7% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating).
Nailor has been a pleasant surprise so far this season as the WR33 in fantasy. Last week he was a full-time player with an 81% route share, a 15.4% target share, a 33.2% air-yard share, and a 16.7% first-read share. Among 84 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks 30th in YPRR (2.03), fourth in separation, and seventh in route win rate. Those are impressive stats for a player who had consistent positive buzz coming out of training camp. Nailor has a tough task for Week 2 as he’ll run about 73% of his routes against Kamari Lassiter (30% catch rate and 0.0 passer rating) and Derek Stingley Jr. (61.5% catch rate and 45.7 passer rating). Houston has allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
OK, let’s get this out of the way. Darnold hasn’t been seeing ghosts this season. If anything he has become an honorary Ghostbuster in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks third in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and ninth in CPOE as the QB10 in fantasy. Yes, you read that correctly. Darnold is the QB10 in fantasy while also ranking seventh in fantasy points per dropback. With a tough matchup this week, Darnold will reside in the QB2 area code. Houston has allowed the 10th-lowest EPA per dropback, the fourth-lowest success rate per dropback, and the sixth-lowest CPOE.
Through two games, Jones is the RB20 in fantasy, averaging 15 touches and 88.5 total yards. Last week, Ty Chandler worked in on early downs while Jones still led the way with 55% of the rushing play snaps. The Vikings are managing Jones’ reps to keep him healthy all season. Jones still owned the high-leverage work and the passing downs. He played 66% of the passing down snaps, 60% of the red zone snaps, and 67% of the snaps once the team was inside the 10-yard line. Among 40 qualifying backs, Jones ranks seventh in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Jones will need all the passing game usage he can get this week, as his rushing matchup is brutal. Houston has been a brick wall for backs, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest missed tackle rate, the third-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.
Addison didn’t practice on Wednesday. I think he’s at least another week away from returning.
Schultz has seen his volume dry up this season with the arrival of Stefon Diggs. Through two games, Schultz has only had an 8.8% target share, a 7.7% first-read share, and 0.66 YPRR. Those are tough numbers to depend on for your fantasy lineups. I’m not saying to drop him yet, but it’s getting close to that time. Schultz is a must-sit this week against a pass defense that allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game (tied) and the 10th-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Eagles are 15th in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
- New Orleans has the slowest-neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate.
Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings
| Jalen Hurts | QB | QB1 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | RB1 |
| Will Shipley | RB | RB5 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | RB5 |
| A.J. Brown | WR | TBD |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | WR1/2 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | TE1 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
| Derek Carr | QB | QB1 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | RB1 |
| Jamaal Williams | RB | RB5 |
| Chris Olave | WR | WR1/2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | WR2/3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE2/3 |
| Taysom Hill | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
***A.J. Brown didn’t practice on Wednesday. Currently, I think he sits this week, but it’s simple. If he is active this week, he’s in your fantasy lineups.***
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
I wanted to include Carr in the must-start section, but everyone isn’t ready for that yet, so let’s have that conversation right now. Carr is the QB2 in fantasy football. Let…that…sink…in. Derek Carr is the QB2 in fantasy football. Good lawd. He leads the NFL in yards per attempt, passer rating, CPOE, and fantasy points per dropback. Yes, right now, he is a must-start. Carr should have a field day against a Philly secondary that has allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game and yards per attempt and the 10th-highest passer rating. He should have plenty of time in the pocket to dissect this pass defense. The Saints have allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate, and the Eagles have the seventh-lowest pressure rate.
Last week is how I expect the Saints’ passing offense to function weekly, with Olave leading the way. In Week 1, Olave had to deal with Jaycee Horn on over half of his routes, which pushed volume in Rashid Shaheed‘s direction. Last week, Olave led the team with a 37.5% target share and 57% air-yard share while tying Shaheed with a 33% first read share and crush with 6.23 YPRR. The Eagles have the sixth-highest rate of single high this season (63.2%). Among 77 qualifying wide receivers against single high, Olave is 11th in separation and ninth in route win rate. Olave will run about 83% of his routes against Darius Slay (100% catch rate and 146.5 passer rating) and Quinyon Mitchell (58.3% catch rate and 91.3 passer rating).
Shaheed is the WR10 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 22.5% target share, a 43.9% air-yard share, and a 26.7% first-read share with 5.28 YPRR (wow, just wow). Last week, he did step back and assume the role of the 1B behind Olave with a 25% target share, a 45.9% air-yard share, and a 33.3% first-read share (tied with Olave). Overall, among 92 qualifying receivers, Shaheed ranks seventh in separation and 28th in route win rate. The Eagles have the sixth-highest rate of single high this season (63.2%). Among 77 qualifying wide receivers against single high, Shaheed is fourth in separation and 37th in route win rate. Shaheed and Olave should cook this week. Shaheed will run about 70% of his routes against Darius Slay (100% catch rate and 146.5 passer rating) and Quinyon Mitchell (58.3% catch rate and 91.3 passer rating).
Goedert is the TE13, drawing a 13.1% target share and 15.8% first-read share with only 1.21 YPRR. Goedert has drawn one red zone target through two games (fourth on the team). Among 30 qualifying tight ends, he ranks 16th in separation and sixth in route win rate. He faces a Saints defense that was 17th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends while also giving up the second-most receiving touchdowns (tied). They also held tight ends to the 11th-fewest receptions. It’s best viewed as an average to slightly below-average matchup.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
HIll remains a weekly dice roll at tight end. It doesn’t feel as lucrative a bet this year as previous seasons, though. He has played 32-47% of the snaps weekly, averaging only five touches and 27.5 total yards. Hill hasn’t seen a red zone target or rushing attempt yet. If I had Hill on my roster I’d sit him unless I didn’t have any better options.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Chargers have the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
- This game will be incredibly slow-paced and run-heavy. Pittsburgh has the 11th-slowest neutral pace and the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Justin Herbert | QB | QB2 |
| Gus Edwards | RB | RB4 |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | RB2 |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | WR4 |
| Joshua Palmer | WR | WR5/6 |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | WR5 |
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Justin Fields | QB | QB1/2 |
| Jaylen Warren | RB | RB3 |
| Najee Harris | RB | RB3 |
| George Pickens | WR | WR2 |
| Roman Wilson | WR | TBD |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
- N/A
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Fields is the QB24 in fantasy points per game, which can be traced to his one touchdown for the season. He is the QB7 in expected fantasy points per game. Fields has limited weapons in the passing game outside of George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, which can explain the fact that he is 24th in yards per attempt and has the highest check-down rate among quarterbacks. Fields is due positive regression, and it happens this week. His rushing profile remains strong as he is third in rushing attempts per game, first in red zone carries per game, and sixth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. He faces a Chargers defense that is a tad overrated after their Week 2 matchup with Carolina. Facing Bryce Young this season is an auto inflater of defensive stats. In Week 1 against Gardner Minshew, the Bolts allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate, and passer rating.
Herbert has been nerfed into a low-end QB2. He is the QB27 in fantasy points per game, ranking 26th in yards per attempt, 28th in passing attempts, and 15th in CPOE. This week, he gets a brutal matchup against a stout Steel Curtain. Pittsburgh has permitted the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, the 10th-lowest CPOE, and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Herbert’s offensive line, that has allowed the fifth-lowest pressure rate, will be tested by a Steelers’ pass rush that ranks third in pressure rate.
Dobbins has been one helluva comeback story after two weeks. He is the RB4 in fantasy, averaging 52% of snaps, 15.5 touches, and 135 total yards. He has crushed per-touch metrics, ranking first in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt while sitting at 12th in yards after contact per attempt. The Chargers’ remade offensive line has been punishing run defenses, ranking first in yards before contact per attempt. Dobbins should have another solid day against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed the 10th-highest missed tackle rate, the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 13th-highest success rate to zone runs (Dobbins 63% zone).
It took one week for the rug to get pulled out from under Harris. In Week 1, he looked like the clear backfield leader for Pittsburgh, but that all changed in Week 2. His overall snap rate dropped from 56% to 45%. His rushing play snap declined from 69% to 56%, and the red zone usage flipped in favor of Jaylen Warren. Warren saw 66% of the red zone snaps in Week 2. Last week, Harris had 18 touches and 74 yards. Among 40 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 17th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris has a nightmare matchup in Week 3 against the Bolts. The Chargers have given up the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Oh, what a difference a week can make. In Week 1, this Pittsburgh backfield looked like it belonged to Harris. Warren had something to say about that in Week 2. His snap rate increased from 31% to 48% as he had 11 touches and 61 total yards. He led the way on passing downs with a 54% snap rate, and he dominated the red zone work with a 66% snap rate. The reality is this will be a fluid headache all year, as Arthur Smith loves to torture fantasy managers with his hijinx. Warren’s tackle-breaking metrics state that he still isn’t 100%, as he has yet to bust an explosive run or force a missed tackle despite ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt. This is a tough matchup for Warren to improve his rushing efficiency. The Chargers have given up the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-lowest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game.
Edwards is a middling flex play weekly. He has averaged 45% of the snaps with 15 touches and 43 total yards per game. Among 40 qualifying backs, he has yet to break an explosive run or forced a missed tackle, while he ranks 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. He plays on only 30% of passing downs, while he does have a 47% snap rate in the red zone. Expect a similar stat line in Week 3 to the ones he has posted thus far this season. Pittsburgh’s run defense has allowed the 10th-highest missed tackle rate and the 14th-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Pickens will cook in Week 3. There, I said it. He is WR43 but a target hog. Pickens has a 25.6% target share, a 53.4% air-yard share, 2.78 YPRR, and a 32.3% first-read share. Among 92 qualifying wide receivers, he ranks second in separation and third in route win rate. The Bolts have the fourth-highest rate of two high this season (65.2%). Pickens ranks second in separation and eighth in route win rate against two high. Pickens will run about 67% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (75% catch rate and 93.1 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (40% catch rate and 47.9 passer rating).
McConkey is the WR42 in fantasy, drawing a 23.9% target share, a 29% air-yard share, and a 19.2% first-read share with 1.86 YPRR. He’s tied for second on the team with one end-zone target. Among 92 qualifying receivers, he ranks 62nd in separation and 47th in route win rate. McConkey does have a good corner matchup this week, as he’ll run about 65% of his routes against Beanie Bishop Jr. (87.5% catch rate and 143.2 passer rating). Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston will draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr., which should push more target volume to McConkey this week.
Freiermuth is the TE10 in fantasy, drawing an 18.6% target share and 19.4% first-read share with 1.74 YPRR. Among 38 qualifying tight ends, Freiermuth ranks 12th in YPRR and leads the group in separation and route win rate. He has a plus matchup this week against the Bolts, who allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to tight ends and so far have given up the fourth-most receptions to the position in 2024.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Palmer has been the third wheel in this passing attack behind McConkey and Johnston so far. He has only a 13% target share, a 15.9% air-yard share, and an 11.5% first-read share. He has been dinged up with a knee issue, which could explain the lack of targets and effectiveness. Among 92 qualifying receivers, he ranks 69th in separation and 73rd in route win rate. Palmer could draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week, but I think it’s more likely Johnston who earns that honor. That means Palmer will face Donte Jackson (42.9% catch rate and 20.8 passer rating), which still is no treat. Sit Palmer.
Johnston is the WR24 in fantasy, riding high on his two-touchdown performance last week. He has earned a 23.9% target share, a 39.3% air-yard share, and a 38.5% first-read share as the clear number one for the Bolts. He has produced 2.17 YPRR, while his per-route metrics remain nasty. Among 92 qualifying receivers, he is 78th in separation and 81st in route win rate. Johnston will likely come back to earth this week as he will likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. (60% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating). Porter Jr. followed Drake London and Courtland Sutton so far this season on 65-69% of their routes, holding them to a combined 33 yards receiving. Sit Johnston this week.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- TB -6.5, O/U 39.5
- Denver Broncos vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Broncos are an on-paper wonderland for pace and passing rate. Denver ranks ninth in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate. Unfortunately, they are a bottom-five offense in the NFL.
- The Buccaneers have the second-slowest neutral pace while operating with the 11th-highest neutral rushing rate.
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
| Bo Nix | QB | QB2 |
| Javonte Williams | RB | RB3 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB4 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | WR5 |
| Josh Reynolds | WR | WR6 |
| Greg Dulcich | TE | TE2/3 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1 |
| Rachaad White | RB | RB2 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB3/4 |
| Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | WR1/2 |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | WR4 |
| Cade Otton | TE | TE2/3 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Mayfield sits on the throne of fantasy quarterbacks right now as the QB1 in fantasy. He has been playing amazing football to a level we haven’t seen since Mayfield’s rookie year. Currently, Mayfield ranks second in yards per attempt and passer rating, 10th in CPOE, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield should walk away from Week 3 with another solid game. Denver has allowed the 13th-highest passer rating and the 10th-highest CPOE. Denver is eighth in pressure rate, though. Good thing Mayfield has been stellar against pressure with the 12th-highest passing grade, fourth-highest yards per attempt, and the third-highest big-time throw rate.
White was limited on Wednesday in practice with a groin issue he picked up in Week 2. Assuming he’s good to go, White is in a decent spot in Week 3. White has played at least 70% of the snaps in each game this season while averaging 16 touches and 64.5 total yards. White is the RB30 in fantasy. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 26th in explosive run rate and missed tackles forced per attempt. Denver has given up the 14th-highest explosive run rate while ranking 18th in yards after contact per attempt allowed. The Broncos have also allowed the tenth-fewest rushing yards per game with the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate.
With Patrick Surtain likely to shadow Mike Evans this week, McMillan could see some extra volume. McMillan has a 10.2% target share, a 29.7% air-yard share, 1.26 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. Among 92 qualifying receivers, McMillan ranks 54th in separation and 23rd in route win rate. If Surtain is on Evans the entire day, McMillan will see Riley Moss (72.7% catch rate and 92.2 passer rating) on the perimeter all day.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Nix is unstartable in fantasy until further notice. It doesn’t matter the opponent right now. Nix has been struggling at a monumental level despite even being a rookie. Nix is the QB24 in fantasy with the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback. Even in Superflex, sit Nix.
Last week, Payton leaned on Williams as a workhorse back as he played 66% of the snaps with 16 touches and 65 total yards (48 of which came in the passing game). Williams’ tackle-breaking hasn’t improved this year after further ACL recovery. Among 40 qualifying backs, he hasn’t registered an explosive run while ranking 31st in yards after contact per attempt. It hasn’t been easy for Williams operating in an offense without the threat of a passing game and behind an offensive line that has the sixth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Tampa Bay’s run defense will be tested this week just to see how truly bad they are. The Bucs’ run defense hasn’t been great in the early going, which gives Williams some faint hope for Week 3. The Buccaneers have allowed the third-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest missed tackle rate while having the third-lowest stuff rate.
Payton is floundering, looking for answers to his putrid offense. One of the moves he made last week was to lean on Williams more and malign McLaughlin. McLaughlin saw his snap rate drop to 28%, and he only had three touches, which he produced six yards with. McLaughlin is a hold if possible, but if you need the bench space, he is droppable. It’s tough for a player that, on a per-touch basis, has been better than Williams, but the offense is on life support, and the offensive-minded head coach doesn’t seem to have any answers to reverse the course.
Sutton has been a volume magnet, but the quality of that volume has rendered him useless in fantasy. He is the WR71 in fantasy points per game despite a 20.8% target share, a 41.7% air-yard share, and a 24.1% first-read share. Only 37.5% of his targets have been deemed catchable. That is an insane statistic. Sadly, Sutton also hasn’t done a good job of getting open. Among 92 qualifying receivers, Sutton ranks 90th in separation and 77th in route win rate. Sutton is borderline droppable at this point, but I understand holding him on a roster because of the volume. He’s definitely not startable, though.
Otton is droppable these days. He has only an 8.2% target share, 0.11 YPRR, and a 10.5% first-read share. He has averaged 0.6 PPR points per game. Denver has the 11th-highest single-high rate (59.3%). Otton has 0.06 fantasy points per route run against single-high this season.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
