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This season has already gone off the rails. Injury armageddon descended upon Fantasy Football squads in Week 2. Entering the third week of the NFL season, we are starting a number of backups in our flexes. Most early-round picks from draft season are injured or underperforming. The tight end position is a wasteland with inefficiency and elite players locked inside of run-heavy offenses.
It’s been utter chaos, but it’s ok. I’m here to help. Here to assist you with setting your fantasy lineups every single week of the season. Let’s embrace change and lean into volatility and good matchups.
The Week 3 Primer is here. Enjoy.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
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Fantasy Football Primer
New York Giants vs. Cleveland Browns
Pace and playcalling notes
- New York ranks ninth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
- Cleveland reversed course in Week 2 with the 11th-slowest neutral pace while featuring the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate. The Browns are attempting to hide their struggling quarterback.
Giants Players & Weekly Rankings
Browns Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Deshaun Watson (QB)
Watson is the QB17 in fantasy, thanks to his rushing. He has averaged 29.5 rushing yards with one rushing touchdown. Without that, he would be a bottom-five fantasy quarterback that would be commensurate with his level of play. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Watson is 32nd in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating, and has the 12th-highest off-target throw rate. I don’t have any faith after last week in Watson’s ability to take advantage of a plus matchup, but he gets another chance this week against a porous Giants’ secondary. New York has allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the sixth-highest passer rating, and the fourth-highest CPOE.
Devin Singletary (RB)
Singletary might not be the sexiest fantasy play weekly, but he is a strong volume flex that can be an RB2. He has been the Giants workhorse, playing at least 70% of the snaps in each game while averaging 15.5 touches and 73.5 total yards. Among 40 qualifying backs, Singletary ranks 11th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants should look to feed Singletary this week. The Browns’ run defense is middle-of-the-road at best. This season, they are 19th in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate while also having the seventh-lowest stuff rate and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Last year, they allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Singletary 77% gap). He should find running room this week behind a line that has surprised with run blocking with the 14th-best yards before contact per attempt.
Week 2
Jerome Ford (RB)
After operating as Cleveland’s workhorse in Week 1, Ford saw his workload cut in Week 2. He played 44% of the snaps with eight touches and 64 total yards. He lost the red zone role to Foreman while retaining the passing down gig. Ford played 44% of the passing downs while he didn’t log a snap in the red zone. Among 40 qualifying backs, Ford has disappointed in tackle-breaking metrics so far, ranking 21st in explosive run rate, 28th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. Despite all of this bad news for Ford, he is still a strong flex play this week because the Giants have a bottom-five run defense. New York has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and missed tackle rate.
D’Onta Foreman (RB)
Foreman took the lead in the backfield in Week 2. He played 38% of the snaps, logging 15 touches for 51 total yards. Foreman had a 59% snap rate on rushing plays while playing 60% of the snaps in the red zone. Among 42 qualifying backs, his tackle-breaking ability was suspect at best, ranking 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 25th in yards after contact per attempt. That might not matter if he retains this type of workload for Week 3 against a run defense as bad as the Giants. New York has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fifth-most rushing yards per game, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt and missed tackle rate. Foreman could be a plug-and-play RB2/3 off the waiver wire this week.
Malik Nabers (WR)
After his monster Week 2 performance, Nabers is the WR4 in fantasy with a 35.7% target share, a 56.2% air-yard share, 2.61 YPRR, and a 50% first-read share. Yep, Daniel Jones knows where his bread must be buttered. He should be looking for Nabers at all times because he is awesome. Among 69 qualifying wide receivers, Nabers ranks 17th in separation and 28th in route win rate. Nabers will still be fed volume this week, but expect his Week 3 results to resemble his Week 1 stat line more closely. The Browns’ secondary is nasty. Nabers will run about 86% of his routes against Martin Emerson Jr. (58.3% catch rate and 104.5 passer rating) and Cam Mitchell (40% catch rate and 47.9 passer rating). The Browns have allowed the 13th-lowest PPR points per target to opposing perimeter wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy (WR)
Jeudy should lead the way for the Browns aerial attack this week. Jeudy has a 17.7% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, 1.29 YPRR, and a 19% first-read share as the WR30 in fantasy. On paper, this looks like a “Jerry Jeudy week.” The Giants have utilized two-high at the fifth-highest rate (53.1%) this season. Against two-high, Jeudy has been the go-to receiver through two games with a 20% target share, a 52.3% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share. Among 54 qualifying receivers against two high, Jeudy ranks 23rd in route win rate and 24th in separation. Jeudy will run about 60% of his routes against Andru Phillips (77.8% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating) and Deonte Banks (63.6% catch rate and 127.1 passer rating). New York has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Daniel Jones (QB)
Even in Superflex formats, you couldn’t pay me to start Jones this week. His QB20 standing in fantasy doesn’t really tell the full story of how incredibly bad he has played through two weeks. Among 34 qualifying signal callers, Jones is 30th in yards per attempt, 26th in CPOE, and 28th in catchable target rate. He has the eighth-highest off-target throw rate. The Browns still have a nasty pass defense. They have held quarterbacks to the 10th-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the 13th-fewest fantasy points. Sit Jones.
Amari Cooper (WR)
Cooper has had a rough opening two games to the season. His volume market share has been solid but the results haven’t been there. Cooper has a 21.5% target share, a 43.2% air-yard share, and a 25.9% first-read share. That all sounds great, right? Well, only 58.8% of that volume has been catchable, and Cooper has turned his catchable volume into 0.31 YPRR and 0.09 fantasy points per route run. The secondary matchup is juicy for Cooper, but the coverage scheme for the Giants could lead to another down week. The Giants have utilized two-high at the fifth-highest rate (53.1%) this season. Against two high, Cooper has only managed an 8.6% target share and an 8.3% first-read share. Unless we see Cleveland change their approach here, Cooper is destined for a third quiet game. Cooper will run about 75% of his routes against Andru Phillips (77.8% catch rate and 79.6 passer rating) and Deonte Banks (63.6% catch rate and 127.1 passer rating).
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)
Robinson’s wondrous Week 1 volume dried up instantly. In Week 2, he had a 14.3% target share, 0.86 YPRR, and only a 13.6% first-read share. This passing offense is pretty much Nabers and everyone else left fighting for scraps weekly. Sit Robinson against a Browns’ secondary that has allowed the sixth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans
Pace and playcalling notes
- To say that the Packers went run-heavy with Malik Willis under center would be an understatement. Last week, they operated with the fourth-slowest neutral pace while rushing on 90.5% of their neutral script plays (first). That’s an insane stat and likely will not repeat, but it’s worth noting that they will remain a run-first offense with Malik Willis under center.
- Tennessee has been boring through two games, ranking 16th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Packers Players & Weekly Rankings
Titans Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Josh Jacobs (RB)
Jacobs has been a workhorse through two games averaging 70% of the snaps with 25 touches and 127.5 total yards. Among 40 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacobs has been running behind a top five run blocking offensive line (third in yards before contact per attempt). Jacobs should have another banner day on the ground in Week 3 against a run defense that has the 12th-lowest stuff rate while allowing the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt and the seventh-highest rushing success rate.
Tony Pollard (RB)
Pollard has looked like a different player this season as Tennessee’s workhorse back. He has averaged 65% of the snaps, 20.5 touches, and 98 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 20th in explosive run rate and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Assuming Green Bay doesn’t stack the box to force Levis to beat them, Pollard should post another juicy stat line in Week 3. The Packers have given up the second-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt with the 12th-most rushing yards per game.
Calvin Ridley (WR)
After two games, Ridley is the WR16 with a rushing touchdown in Week 2, helping to pad his fantasy production. He has earned a 21.7% target share, a 60% air-yard share, and a 28.3% first-read share with 2.12 YPRR. Ridley hasn’t seen a red zone or end zone target yet. Green Bay has utilized single high on 56.6% of their defensive snaps this year. Among 77 qualifying wide receivers, Ridley ranks 73rd in separation and 51st in route win rate against single high. Ridley could see shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander this week after he followed A.J. Brown on 69% of his routes in Week 1. Brown roasted Alexander with 108 receiving yards and a score. Green Bay didn’t have him shadow Michael Pittman in Week 2, so it’s up in the air if he does so this week. If Alexander doesn’t follow Ridley, he’ll run about 83% of his routes against Alexander (55.6% catch rate and 97.9 passer rating) and Eric Stokes (66.7% catch rate and 86.8 passer rating). Green Bay has allowed the sixth-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Will Levis (QB)
Levis is a tough player to consider starting even in Superflex formats. He has been nothing short of dreadful through two games as the QB29 in fantasy. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating while also checking in with the ninth-fewest fantasy points per dropback and the 12th-lowest catchable target rate. The Packers have tough against quarterbacks in the early going, forcing the most interceptions while allowing the third-lowest passer rating and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Levis is a desperation QB2 only.
Malik Willis (QB)
Willis operated as a competent game manager in his first start for Green Bay, completing 85.7% of his 14 passes while adding 41 rushing yards as the QB20 for the week. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he was eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in passer rating, and eighth in CPOE. The Packers tried to put as little as possible on his plate. He threw to his first read on 80% of his passes, which is the highest mark among qualifying quarterbacks. This week, if Willis posts solid QB2 numbers again, it will have to come via his legs. The Titans pass defense is legit through two games, allowing the second-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest CPOE, and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
***Jordan Love has practiced in a limited fashion all week. He has been listed as questionable. I don’t foresee a franchise that is usually quite conservative with injuries pushing Love out there in Week 3.***
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Spears didn’t practice on Wednesday (ankle) and was limited the rest of the week. Spears has averaged 39% of the snaps with eight touches and 31.5 total yards. He has only had one red zone touch this season. The matchup is good, but with his limited volume and balky ankle, I’m sitting Spears for Week 3. I get it if you’re in desperation mode in a deep league and have to flex him, but you’re praying that he gets into the end zone to pay off. The Packers have given up the second-highest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt with the 12th-most rushing yards per game.
Jayden Reed (WR)
Reed is the only Packers receiver who can be considered flex-worthy with Willis under center. That’s not because of his pass-game usage but his rushing utility. “Dairy belt Deebo Samuel” has averaged 35 rushing yards through two games this season. Last week, Reed had a 14.3% target share (two targets) and a 77% route share. Only he and Doubs had route shares of at least 70%. Reed will see Roger McCreary (66.7% catch rate and 70.1 passer rating) in coverage all day. The Titans have allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Hopkins still isn’t 100%, and with Levis playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, it’s impossible to trust him in a fantasy lineup. Last week, Hopkins only had a 45% route share while drafting only two targets (7.1% target share). That’s not enough playing time to consider him for a flex or WR3 spot. Hopefully, his playing time will increase in Week 3, but I need to see it first before trusting him in this offense.
Tyler Boyd (WR)
Boyd is a must-sit until Levis displays the ability to sustain more than Ridley in this passing attack. Boyd has seen a 16.7% target share and a 21.7% first-read share, producing only 0.75 YPRR, 22 receiving yards per game, and 0.16 fantasy points per route run. Boyd is the WR77 in fantasy points per game. Green Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to slot receivers.
***Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks are all must-sits until Love is back in the lineup or the passing volume of this offense increases. Only Doubs managed at least a 70% route share last week. Green Bay wide receivers saw a combined nine targets last week. That’s just not enough volume to support these players in fantasy.***
Tucker Kraft (TE)
Kraft again led the tight end room with a 53% route share in Week 2 and a 14.3% target share. Sadly, though, that target share only amounted to two targets. Kraft is only a stash at this point. We have seen his upside in this offense as the starter, which is a weekly TE1. Until Love is back or the offense sees some more passing volume, there’s just no way to trust him in a fantasy lineup. Volume is king, and there’s none to be had through the air in Green Bay right now. Last year, Tennessee allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the sixth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)
Okonkwo is droppable. In a struggling passing attack, he has only a 47% route share and 8.3% target share. He also has an anemic 0.91 YPRR and 15.5 receiving yards per game.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
Chicago Bears vs. Indianapolis Colts
Pace and playcalling notes
- Chicago ranks 13th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate. The pace of this game should be strong as Indy has been fourth in neutral pace while featuring the run game (tenth in neutral rushing rate).
Bears Players & Weekly Rankings
Colts Players & Weekly Rankings
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Caleb Williams (QB)
Williams is the QB30 in fantasy points per game. This isn’t the start to the season anyone projected for Williams. It’s been tough to watch. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he has the lowest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the lowest fantasy points per dropback. In a 1QB league, Williams isn’t on your fantasy radar, but he could manage his best NFL game so far this week, which could help folks in 2QB or Superflex leagues. The Colts pass defense has been a pushover this year. They have the sixth-lowest pressure rate, which is huge for Williams, who has been pressured at the 10th-highest rate with the 10th-lowest time to pressure. He could enjoy more clean pockets this week which would be great against a secondary that has allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-highest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE.
D’Andre Swift (RB)
Out of the gate, the Bears’ offense has been an incredible disappointment, and Swift is part of that equation. He’s the RB39 in fantasy points per game, averaging 68% of the snaps, 14 touches, and 36 total yards per game. Among 40 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate, 35th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift is staring down a plus matchup, but we need to give some context about Indy’s run defense first. The biggest issue for the Colts’ run defense is that they have been blown off the ball. They have allowed the third-highest yards before contact per attempt, which can be traced to facing Green Bay and Houston’s offensive lines, which are both top-five in yards before contact per attempt. Chicago won’t be able to open up running lanes like that for Swift, as they have the fifth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. This can still be considered an average matchup for Swift as Indy is 15th in missed tackles per attempt, but they have given up the 13th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Expect Swift to get a much-needed spike in efficiency on the ground this week, but don’t get out over your skies with hopes of a monster stat line.
DJ Moore (WR)
Moore has been earning volume at his usual clips, but it hasn’t translated to wondrous fantasy production. Moore is the WR37, commanding a 27.3% target share, a 36.3% air-yard share, and a 31% first-read share, but hit has only amounted to 1.17 YPRR and 0.28 fantasy points per route run. If Williams can deliver catchable targets this week, Moore should crush. Indy has the fifth-highest single-high rate (65.5%). Last year, among 57 qualifying receivers, Moore ranked sixth in YPRR and 10th in fantasy points per route run against single high. Moore will run about 75% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (70% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating), Dallis Flowers (career: 59.3% catch rate and 107.0 passer rating), and Samuel Womack lll (career: 77.8% catch rate and 115.0 passer rating). Indy has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Rome Odunze (WR)
Odunze is playing through a sprained MCL. Last week, he had an 83% route share while drawing a 13.5% target share, a 28% air-yard share, and an 18.2% first-read share with 0.83 YPRR and one end zone target. If Odunze is a full go again this week, he could have a strong outing, assuming his knee allows him to play in the same area code as his usual effectiveness. He’s been solid on a per-route basis. Among 86 qualifying wide receivers, Odunze is 30th in separation and 31st in route win rate. Odunze will run about 66% of his routes against Jaylon Jones (70% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating), Dallis Flowers (career: 59.3% catch rate and 107.0 passer rating), and Samuel Womack lll (career: 77.8% catch rate and 115.0 passer rating). Indy has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)
Pittman has had a quiet start to the season as the WR66 in fantasy, while Alec Pierce has been filling up box scores. Pittman is still the clear leader of this receiver room. He has a 28.3% target share and a 31.4% first-read share that he has sadly only turned into 1.0 YPRR and 6.1 fantasy points per game. This week is not cakewalk either. The Bears have allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season. That won’t stop Indy from feeding Pittman more volume this week. Chicago has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 61.1% of their defensive snaps this season. Last year, against Cover 3 & Cover 4, Pittman had a 28.4% target share, 1.96 YPRR, and a 37.5% first-read share. Richardson should be looking for him early and often. Pittman will run about 80% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (37.5% catch rate and 9.4 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (52.6% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating). Pittman is dealing with back and calf issues, but he is expected to play his usual role for Week 3.
Alec Pierce (WR)
Pierce has been excellent so far this season. He has seen an 80% route share with a 20.8% target share, a 39.4% air-yard share, 3.62 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. He should retain his full-time perimeter receiver role this week as Downs and Mitchell squabble over slot snaps. Chicago has utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 on 61.1% of their defensive snaps this season. Against these coverages, Pierce has a 15% target share, 5.17 YPRR, and a 13.3% first-read share. Pierce remains a solid flex play this week with a high ceiling despite the tough matchup. The Bears have allowed the 12th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season. Pierce will run about 70% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (37.5% catch rate and 9.4 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (52.6% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating).
Fantasy Football Week 3 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Keenan Allen (WR)
Allen has been ruled out for Week 3 (heel).
Josh Downs (WR)
Downs is practicing in full this week and is set to make his 2024 debut. I worry that Indy won’t rush him back to a full complement of snaps with Adonai Mitchell as their starting slot receiver in his absence. We could see Downs, and Mitchell split the role in his first week back. Sit Downs this week.
Adonai Mitchell (WR)
My slot snap concerns this week for Indy start with Josh Downs and continue with Mitchell. Last week, Mitchell had only a 65% route share as he split the role with Ashton Dulin. That could easily happen again this week, except with Downs eating into his snapshare even more. Last week, Mitchell only saw an 11.8% target share and a 17.6% first-read share while working from the slot with Dulin breathing down his neck. That’s not enough usage, especially if Mitchell’s route share drops to 40-50% this week. Sit Mitchell until we have further clarity with this receiver rotation.
NE vs. NYJ | NYG vs. CLE | GB vs. TEN | CHI vs. IND | HOU vs. MIN | PHI vs. NO | LAC vs. PIT | DEN vs. TB | CAR vs. LV | MIA vs. SEA | BAL vs. DAL | SF vs. LAR | DET vs. ARI | KC vs. ATL | JAC vs. BUF | WAS vs. CIN
