The Primer: Week 2 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• KC -6, O/U 48
• Bengals vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Chiefs were only 15th in neutral pace in Week 1, but they ramped up the passing volume (sixth in neutral passing rate).
• The Bengals ran slow in their first game (seventh-slowest neutral pace), but like the Chiefs, they leaned on their aerial attack, with the second-highest neutral passing rate.

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Patrick Mahomes II
• Isiah Pacheco
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Rashee Rice
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Burrow (QB)

I won’t say I’m freaking out about Burrow after only one game, but I’m slightly concerned. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Week 1, Burrow had the sixth-lowest aDOT and the 11th-lowest yards per attempt while finishing as the QB29 in fantasy. Chase was locked down last week, and the rest of his weapons were subpar at best. Unfortunately, this week against the Chiefs, it could be much of the same for Burrow. Last week, the Chiefs allowed the 12th-lowest CPOE and 14th-lowest yards per attempt. Even more concerning for Burrow is that the Chiefs’ had the 11th-best time to pressure and the fourth-best pressure rate. Burrow could be under fire all game.

Zack Moss (RB)

Moss finished Week 1 as the RB22 in fantasy while playing 65% of the snaps with 11 touches and 61 total yards. This could be a game where Cincy leans on their ground game. In Week 1, among 36 qualifying backs, Moss ranked 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 13th in yards after contact per attempt. Last year, Kansas City allowed the 10th-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt, and it had the second-lowest stuff rate. The Bengals line did a good job at opening up holes up front last week, ranking 10th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Let’s see if they can do it again versus Kansas City. The Chiefs allowed the 10th-highest yards before contact per attempt last year.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

Well, that didn’t take long. Worthy exploded immediately in fantasy with a WR11 showing in Week 1. Yes, some of it was flukey as he scored on a rushing attempt from 21 yards out, but he’s also an explosive receiver who can be a splash play merchant. Worthy was a full-time player with a 76% route share, a 10.7% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, 2.04 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. Rashee Rice operated as the clear WR1, but there’s plenty of room for Worthy to continue to produce in this offense. In Week 1, among 78 qualifying receivers, he was 34th in separation and route win rate. Worthy could blow up again in Week 2 while running about 56% of his routes against Dax Hill (career: 68.9% catch rate and 115.3 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (career: 54% catch rate and 78.0 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Chase Brown (RB)

Brown didn’t have the role that we heard out of camp out of the gate. He was the clear backup and not 1B in this offense. Brown only played 33% of the snaps in Week 1, logging six touches and 23 total yards. Hold him on your rosters if you have room, but don’t consider starting him anytime soon unless there’s any injury to Moss.

Andrei Iosivas (WR)

In his first game of the season, Iosivas disappointed. The training camp hype fell flat quickly. He was a full-time player with a 96% route share, a 20.7% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, 0.79 YPRR, and a 17.4% first-read share. The problem was simply that he couldn’t gain any separation. In Week 1, among 78 qualifying receivers, he ranked 70th in separation and 61st in route win rate. Not good, Bob. Not good at all. Hopefully, better days are ahead for Iosivas once he transitions back to the slot when Tee Higgins returns, but he’s a tough player to consider putting in your lineups until he moves back to the slot. Iosivas will run about 73% of his routes against Joshua Williams (2023: 41.4% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating) and Jaylen Watson (2023: 54% catch rate and 104.3 passer rating). Last year, Kansas City allowed the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Higgins hasn’t practiced all week (hamstring). He has been listed as doubtful. He will miss Week 2.

Marquise Brown (WR)

Brown has been ruled out for Week 2 and placed on the IR.

Mike Gesicki (TE)

Unless Gesicki’s route share increases in the Cincy offense, he’s not viable in fantasy. In Week 1, he only had a 43% route share. Yes, he did command a 13.8% target share, but efficiency has never been Gesicki’s hallmark, and it wasn’t in Week 1 (1.20 YPRR). He’s droppable at this point.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos

• PIT -2.5, O/U 36.5
• Steelers vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last week, Denver was eighth in neutral pace and passing rate. The Steelers took the opposite approach in their first game, with the 13th-slowest neutral pace and the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL.

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Justin Fields (QB)

Fields finished as the QB19 in Week 1, as he didn’t score a single touchdown. The rushing upside was there as he carried the ball 14 times for 57 yards. The touchdown drought is really what sunk his day. He was decent as a passer, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in fantasy points per dropback. He should bounce back some this week against Denver who was 17th in yards per attempt and 18th in passer rating last week while allowing the 12th-best CPOE.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris was the RB35 in fantasy Week 1 as he played 56% of the snaps, logging 21 touches and 79 total yards. Among 34 qualifying backs, he was 16th in explosive run rate and 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Harris has more of the backfield work this season, at least through one game, than he did last year. He had a 70% snap rate on rushing plays and a 41% snap rate on passing downs (Warren 48%). When the Steelers entered the red zone, Harris had a 64% snap rate, and when they were inside the 10-yard line, that snap share still stood at 60%. Harris should post RB2 numbers (at least) this week against a Denver run defense that allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the 13th-highest missed tackle rate, and the 12th-highest yards after contact per attempt in Week 1.

Javonte Williams (RB)

Williams had a tough Week 1. He played 52% of the snaps but only had nine touches and 23 scoreless yards to show for it. Seattle’s defense didn’t respect the pass and clogged the running lanes which could easily happen again this week. Williams has an interesting tackle-breaking profile that we’ll have to continue to monitor to see if he’s back to his pre-injury form. Among 40 qualifying backs in Week 1, he was 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt, but he was also 28th in yards after contact per attempt and didn’t manage one explosive run. His offensive line also didn’t do him any favors, as they had the seventh-lowest yards before contact per attempt. If Nix can keep the Steelers run defense honest (big if), then he could find some running room this week against a team that allowed the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt, the 13th-highest gap yards per carry (Williams 63% gap Week 1), and the 12th-highest gap success rate last year.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)

What the surface box score doesn’t tell you is that McLaughlin played more on rushing plays and less on passing downs than Javonte Williams in Week 1. McLaughlin had a 50% snap rate on rushing plays (Williams 40%) and a 30% snapshare on passing downs (Williams 55%). Some of that could be related to pass pro because McLaughlin still earned a 42% TPRR and 11.9% target share (five targets) in Week 1. McLaughlin was still effective with the work that he received on early downs, ranking 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt (among 40 qualifying backs). Yes, I know you’re wondering how I can say this, looking at his box score, but his offensive line only managed 0.20 yards before contact per attempt on his carries. Basically, as soon as he got the ball, a defender was already in his face. It’s nearly impossible to expect a back to produce in any offense when that’s the case every snap. Overall, McLaughlin played 35% of the snaps with 15 touches and 28 total yards. If Nix can provide decent quarterback play, we could see McLaughlin’s numbers improve in Week 2.

George Pickens (WR)

In Week 1, Pickens soaked up some ridiculous volume numbers with a 30.4% target share, a 74.4% air-yard share, 4.25 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. He finished the week as the WR22 in fantasy. What’s even more impressive with these numbers is that A.J. Terrell shadowed him on 80% of his routes. With Terrell in his back pocket, he secured four of his five targets for 80 yards. The problem, though, is he will get shadowed this week by Patrick Surtain, who just shadowed D.K. Metcalf for 96% of his routes, allowing only three receptions and 29 receiving yards. Keep your Pickens expectations reasonable for Week 2.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Last week Freiermuth finished as the TE13 in fantasy as the rest of the tight ends disappointed. His four receptions and 27 receiving yards line wouldn’t have been that high among tight ends in many “normal” weeks. Freiermuth had a 65% route share with a 17.4% target share (only four targets), 1.42 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. These numbers look better than they actually are. The run heavy nature of this offense limits the target volume for everyone not named George Pickens. It will be hard for Freiermuth to be anything more than a touchdown-dependent streamer this season unless this changes, especially with his 3.0 aDOT. The matchup for Freiermuth is good, though, this week, as Denver allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends last year.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bo Nix (QB)

I’m not rushing to judgment, but no one will tell you that Nix looked good in his first NFL start. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks last week, he had the second-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest CPOE, the sixth-highest off-target throw rate, and the 10th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. He was 27th in fantasy points per dropback. There’s no way I’m starting Nix in any fantasy format currently (even in Superflex) until he displays some semblance of competence or the ability to score fantasy points.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Warren is a player to hold on benches, but it’s tough to start him in any format after the workload we saw in Week 1. Warren’s snap share was only 31%, as he got only four touches, totaling 20 yards. He might not be fully healthy, as well, as he only managed 1.0 yards after contact per attempt and zero missed tackles forced in Week 1. Those aren’t numbers we are used to seeing for Warren.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Sutton was the clear alpha for Denver in Week 1, with a 28.6% target share, a 62.9% air-yard share, and a 31% first-read share. While that volume looks great on the surface, Sutton also had only 38 receiving yards (0.93 YPRR), partially because only 41.7% of that target volume was catchable. Sutton is a sit this week as he’ll likely see shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr., who followed Drake London on 65% of his routes last week. Porter Jr. held London to one reception and seven receiving yards.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• HOU -6.5, O/U 45.5
• Bears vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• To open the season, Chicago was tenth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral rushing rate. Houston took a similar but different approach, with the 11th-slowest neutral pace and the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Bears Players & Weekly Rankings

Texans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• C.J. Stroud
• Joe Mixon
• Nico Collins

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Williams has nowhere to go but up in Week 2. No, really, as the QB31 in fantasy in Week 1 and 31st in CPOE, catchable target rate, and fantasy points per dropback (among 32 quarterbacks), Williams can only go up in Week 2. Being serious, this was his first NFL start. Was it bad? Sure, but I’m not rendering a final grade on his NFL career after one freaking start. This week, he gets a good matchup against a secondary that Anthony Richardson just shredded in Week 1. Last year, Houston allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

DJ Moore (WR)

In his first game with Williams under center, Moore had a 27.6% target share, a 30.1% air-yard share, 1.20 YPRR, and a 30% first-read share. This only led to five grabs and 36 receiving yards, but we have already discussed Williams’ struggles in Week 1. Moore and Keenan Allen operated as a 1A/1B. If Williams bounces back in his second start then Moore is coming along for the ride. Fire him up as you would usually. He will run about 73% of his routes against Kamari Lassiter (33% catch rate and 42.4 passer rating) and Derek Stingley Jr. (50% catch rate and 56.3 passer rating).

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen paced Moore in most metrics in Week 1 despite visibly dealing with a heel injury that led to him limping during part of the game. Allen hasn’t practiced all week, but there’s hope he will play in Week 2. He has been listed as questionable. Last week, he commanded a 27.6% target share, a 42.2% air-yard share, and a team-leading 35% first-read share with 1.26 YPRR. The lack of box score numbers (four receptions, 18 receiving yards) is more related to his quarterback’s issues than his health, as he was open constantly on a quick pass through the film. If Williams can make short work of his Week 1 faceplant, Allen should lead the way through the air. He’ll run about 60% of his routes against Jalen Pitre (career: 67.7% catch rate and 90.9 passer rating) in the slot.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

In his first game as a Texan, Diggs had an 18.8% target share as the underneath option (1.3 aDOT). He finished with six grabs, 33 receiving yards (1.0 YPRR), and two scores that saved his day. Diggs was third in first read share with 19%. When the team had single-high looks in Week 1, he only had an 11.8% target share and 10% first-read share. This matters because, in Week 1, Chicago utilized single high at the 10th highest rate (60.5%). I expect a quieter game for Diggs in Week 2 as he’ll run about 63% of his routes from the slot against Kyler Gordon (career: 77.3% catch rate and 102.1 passer rating).

Tank Dell (WR)

In Week 1, Dell shared the field stretching role (16.3 aDOT) with Collins as he saw a 21.9% target share, a 46% air-yard share, and a 23.8% first-read share with 1.29 YPRR. Dell only converted the volume into three receptions and 40 receiving yards. When Houston faced single high coverage in Week 1, Dell was the second in command behind Nico Collins with a 17.6% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, and a 20% first-read share. Dell should be the second option in the passing attack this week that will run about 67% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (33% catch rate and 2.8 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (33% catch rate and 46.8 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Swift finished Week 1 as the RB44 in fantasy, playing 70% of the snaps with ten touches and 30 total yards. It’s a small sample, but his tackle-breaking is a mild concern. Among 34 backs in Week 1, he ranked 21st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. Houston should put the clamps on Swift in Week 2. Against this run defense in Week 1, Jonathan Taylor only had 3.0 yards per carry and 48 rushing yards. Last year, Houston allowed the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and the 14th-lowest fantasy points per game, and it managed the third-highest stuff rate.

Rome Odunze (WR)

Odunze is dealing with a mild MCL sprain. I don’t believe Matt Eberflus, as he labels him “day-to-day.” Eberflus has a spotty track record at best with injury reports. I expect Odunze to sit for Week 2. He didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday and was limited on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. Consider that questionable tag to be closer to doubtful.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

Schultz didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before getting a full walk-through practice on Friday. He has been listed with no injury designation. In Week 1, he finished as the TE23 with a 9.4% target share, 0.55 YPRR, and a 9.5% first-read share. Chicago was a plus matchup for tight ends last year, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points, the fourth-most receptions, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns.

Cole Kmet (TE)

Kmet is droppable. He had only a 27% route share in Week 1 as Gerald Everett is the team’s new “starter,” leading the way with a 57% route run rate. Everett’s route share needs to climb before he cracks the Primer, though.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• PHI -6.5, O/U 47.5
• Falcons vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Falcons were sixth in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate in Week 1.
• The Eagles remained pace-up, ranking fifth in neutral pace, but they still leaned on the run, with the 10th-highest neutral rushing rate.

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• Bijan Robinson
• DeVonta Smith
• Kyle Pitts

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

**A.J. Brown has been ruled out (hamstring).**

Drake London (WR)

My worry about London’s Week 1 outlook came to fruition. He was shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. on 65% of his routes and held to one reception for seven yards in his coverage. Overall, he had an 11.5% target share, a 17.1% air-yard share, 0.65 YPRR, and an 11.8% first-read share. Cousins was averse to driving the ball in Week 1, as only Darnell Mooney had an aDOT higher than 10.0. Among 78 receivers last week, London finished with the second-lowest separation score and route win rate. I hope London bounces back this week, but tread carefully with this passing attack. In Week 1, Philly utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate. Last year, among 84 qual wide receivers, London ranked 60th in separation score and 64th in route win rate against single high. London will run about 73% of his routes against Darius Slay (2023: 64.3% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating) and Quinyon Mitchell (55.6% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating) in Week 2.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Last week, Goedert was the TE12 as he saw a 14.7% target share and 15.8% first-read share with 1.19 YPRR as the clear WR3 in the Philly offense. Goedert should again post TE1 numbers in Week 2. In Week 1, Atlanta utilized single high at the eighth-highest rate (62.1%). In 2023, among 28 qualifying tight ends, Goedert ranked eighth in separation score and 11th in route win rate against single high. Last year, Atlanta allowed the fourth-highest receiving yards, the 13th-highest yards per reception, and the sixth-highest fantasy points to tight ends. With A.J. Brown ruled out, Goedert gets a bump as a strong TE1 this week.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Well, I went from not concerned a ton to EXTREMELY concerned about Kohl’s poster boy. His Week 1 performance was…something. Cousins was the QB28 in fantasy with the 12th-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-lowest CPOE, and the 11th-lowest catchable target rate. If he doesn’t turn it around quickly don’t be surprised if we start hearing chants for Michael Penix to take over. We’ll see if he can turn it around in Week 2 against a Philly secondary that allowed the seventh-most passing yards, the third-lowest CPOE, and the 14th-highest yards per attempt in Week 1. Philly generated the lowest pressure rate in the NFL in Week 1, so Cousins should have clean pockets to set his feet.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Until Kirk Cousins can drive the ball with some decent velocity, I’m staying away from Mooney. Mooney had a 13.0 aDOT in Week 1 and profiles as the team’s field stretcher. That’s not a role I want to covet with Cousins’ current on-field issues. If you have the space to hold him on your bench, do so because this passing attack is incredibly consolidated, and if better days are ahead for the offense, Mooney should benefit. In Week 1, Mooney had an 11.5% target share, a 25.7% air-yard share, and a 17.6% first-read share.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

• Watch Live on Fubo (Try for Free)
• MIA -2.5, O/U 50.5
• Bills vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The old pass-heavy and pace-up ideals of the Bills offense are dead. In Week 1, Joe Brady went full “establish it” mode with the sixth-slowest neutral pace and the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
• In Week 1, the Dolphins ranked eighth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Dolphins Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Tyreek Hill

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

James Cook (RB)

Cook was the Bills’ workhorse in Week 1, playing 61% of the snaps with 22 touches and 93 total yards. Sadly, he didn’t score in Week 1, but his red zone usage was slightly encouraging. Yes, he only accounted for 33% of this red zone touch usage in this offense, but he clearly led the running back room with three opportunities (Ray Davis and Ty Johnson each one). Cook also received the only carry inside the five-yard line while he split the inside the ten-yard line work with Allen (two rushing attempts for each). Cook also dominated the red zone snaps for the backs with 52.9%. Among 34 qualifying backs, Cook ranked 15th in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt in Week 1. Miami’s Week 1 showing as a run defense gives Cook hope. Last week, the Dolphins allowed the eighth-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate. This stands opposed to their 2023 ranks, where they were stifling to rushing attacks, holding teams to bottom five metrics in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and yards after contact per attempt. Also worth noting is that in Week 1, 58% of Cook’s runs were with zone plays, and last year, Miami allowed the 11th-highest success rate to zone runs.

Week 1

De’Von Achane (RB)

Achane led the way for the running back room, playing 52% of the snaps with 17 touches and 100 total yards. Achane led the Dolphins backfield duo in rushing attempts, snaps, targets, routes, and red zone touches. This was exactly the type of usage you wanted to see if you drafted Achane this season. His 18.9% target share sent a tingling feeling throughout my entire body as Achane rolled up most of his yards through the air (76). Achane should find more running room in Week 2. Buffalo allowed the third-highest explosive run rate in Week 1. Last year, their run defense was the weak link of their defense, giving up the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Week 1 Achane 60% gap). Buffalo also allowed the 11th-most receptions and the fifth-highest yards per reception to backs last season, so Achane should be able to take advantage through the air as well if he is active. Achane is dealing with an ankle issue and has been listed as questionable/game-time decision. If you have Achane, you should have already picked up Jeff Wilson or Jaylen Wright to cover yourself for the possibility that he is out.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Mostert has been ruled out (chest).

Jeff Wilson (RB)

Last year, Wilson’s workload was limited (41 carries). He wasn’t particularly good when he got volume, either. Last year, among 77 qualifying backs, Wilson ranked 69th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 51st in yards after contact per attempt. Wilson can take advantage of this matchup if called upon this week if Achane is out. In that scenario, I would expect Wilson to lead the backfield, especially playing on passing downs, as Jaylen Wright factors in on early downs to share the workload. The Bills are a softer matchup on the ground. Last year, they gave up the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 6th-highest yards per carry to zone runs (2023: Wilson 56.1% zone). Wilson should be a decent flex if Achane plays. If he’s out, he could return RB2 value.

Jaylen Wright (RB)

Wright could be active for Thursday night even if Achane plays as an emergency back or as a change-of-pace option. Wright is a dice roll flex this week if Achane is out. If Achane is active, then Wright isn’t on the fantasy viability radar because his role would be up in the air and could just be a handful of snaps. This preseason, Wright handled 17 carries, which he turned into 91 rushing yards (5.4 ypc). Those numbers look better than his per-touch efficiency. Among 108 preseason rushers, Wright ranked 52nd in yards after contact per attempt and 58th in elusive rating. While those aren’t amazing, the reality is Wright has lightning-fast track speed, and if given a crease, he can hit a dinger. Assuming Achane is out, Wright would likely factor in on early downs, with the trusted veteran, Jeff Wilson, handling passing downs and his share of early downs. Wright can take advantage of this Bills’ run defense. Buffalo allowed the third-highest explosive run rate in Week 1. Last year, their run defense was the weak link of their defense, giving up the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Preseason: Wright 50% gap).

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Last Week, Waddle made the most of his target volume as he posted 109 receiving yards and 3.89 YPRR while only drawing a 13.5% target share and a 32.1% air-yard share. This didn’t stop Waddle from finishing with 16.2 fantasy points. Waddle should see some of the target volume move back in his direction this week. In Week 1, Buffalo utilized two-high on 68.4% of their defensive snaps (the fifth-highest rate in the NFL). This lines up with their usage of two-high last year (59%, third-highest). Last year against two-high, Waddle had a 22.9% target share, 3.14 YPRR, and a 24.5% first-read share. Starting Waddle is a bet on talent against a tough opponent. Last year, Buffalo allowed the seventh-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Waddle will run about 82% of his routes against Christian Benford (2023: 68.9% catch rate and 87.7 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (2023: 61.3% catch rate and 73.1 passer rating).

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Shakir’s Week 1 numbers look eerily similar to his stats when he assumed a full-time role last year. Shakir was third on the team with a 70% route per dropback rate while running from the slot on 81% of his snaps. Shakir has always been dynamic when on the field, but he has yet to prove that he can be a heavy target share earner, and that was true again in Week 1. Shakir had a 13% target share as he ran underneath routes (3.3 aDOT). Shakir managed 2.0 YPRR and 0.095 FD/RR, but he only commanded a 12.5% first-read share. Shakir has another plus matchup this week against a Miami pass defense that allowed the seventh-highest PPR points per target and the sixth-most receptions to slot receivers last year. Shakir will match up with Kader Kohou (2023: 83.5% catch rate and 132.9 passer rating) all day.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Kincaid’s Week 1 stat line was disappointing, to say the least. He only had a 4.3% target share, 3% air-yard share, and a 6.3% first-read share despite having an 80% route share and running 58% of his routes from the slot. Better days are ahead for Kincaid, though. Playing time was the big worry entering the year with Dawson Knox back in the fold. Knox only had a 43% route share, so Kincaid is the clear starter. Let’s remind ourselves of Kincaid’s talent before freaking out over a one-game sample. Last year in Weeks 7-18, he ranked seventh in target share (19.0%), ninth in receiving yards per game (50.5) and first-read share (21.0%), and 12th in YPRR (1.85). Fire Kincaid back up this week against a Miami defense that last year allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game, the 11th-most receiving yards, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Tagovailoa exits Week 1 as the QB10 in fantasy, continuing much of the same pocket prowess we loved last year. He walked away from his first game ranked fifth in yards per attempt and seventh in highly accurate throw rate with the sixth-lowest off-target rate. He faces a much stiffer test in Week 2 against Buffalo. Last year against the Bills, Tagovailoa finished as the QB18 and QB25 in weekly fantasy scoring with 7.3 yards per attempt, a 2:3 touchdown to interception ratio, and only 227.5 passing yards per game. Buffalo stifled the Cardinals in Week 1, allowing the eighth-lowest yards per attempt and the ninth-fewest passing yards. This is similar to their showing as a pass defense last year when they permitted the sixth-lowest passing yards per game, the eighth-lowest yards per attempt, and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Downgrade Tagovailoa this week.

Keon Coleman (WR)

Coleman led Buffalo with an 86% route per dropback rate while drawing a 21.4% target share, a 28.1% air-yard share, and a whopping 31.13% first-read share. Coleman’s 1.96 YPRR was more impressive in Week 1 than his 0.077 FD/RR. The full-time status for Coleman was a nice sign as he drew one of only two end zone targets for Week 1. It’s nice to see Josh Allen lean on the rookie so early. Coleman won’t have an easy time this week as he runs all of his routes against Kendall Fuller (67.1% catch rate and 101.9 passer rating) and Jalen Ramsey (54.8% catch rate and 52.9 passer rating). Coleman should still see enough volume and high-leverage usage to turn in a flex-viable game.

Curtis Samuel (WR)

Samuel isn’t startable until we see his usage trickle up. This is likely related to his turf toe. Samuel only had a 30% route per dropback rate in Week 1, as he ran nine routes. That’s not nearly enough playing time to be fantasy-viable. Don’t drop him from your rosters, but he’s firmly parked on the bench until the snap count improves.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*