Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

• SEA -3, O/U 38.5
• Seahawks vs. Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Seattle ranked fourth in neutral pace and rushing rate in Week 1.
• The Patriots took a similar run-heavy approach for their first game (second in neutral rushing rate) while fielding the 10th-slowest team in neutral script.

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Walker hasn’t practiced all week as he’s nursing an oblique injury. He has been listed as doubtful. It’s just a matter of time before he’s ruled out for Week 2.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Charbonnet will be the team’s workhorse this week with Walker out. Last year, Charbonnet had three games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps. In that sample, he averaged 19.6 touches and 75.3 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs last year, he ranked 20th in explosive run rate and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Last week, New England allowed the 13th-lowest missed tackle rate while ranking 15th in yards after contact per attempt permitted. While they might not be elite as a run defense this year, they still likely aren’t a pushover. This is a tougher matchup for Charbonnet. Last year, the Patriots allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the lowest missed tackle rate and yards after contact per attempt. Charbonnet can still pay off for fantasy as a volume RB2 this week.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

MONDRE bullied the Bengals run defense in Week 1 to the tune of 28 touches, 126 total yards, and an RB7 finish. He played 78% of the snaps while putting up a monster tackle-breaking performance. Among 34 qualifying backs, he ranked first in missed tackles forced per attempt, third in yards after contact per attempt, and ninth in explosive run rate. The jury is still out regarding the skill of the Seattle run defense for 2024. They were a bottom-five unit last year, but in Week 1, they had the fourth-highest stuff rate and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt allowed while sitting at 16th in missed tackles per attempt. This was also against a putrid Denver passing attack, but the New England passing attack isn’t much better, so Seattle could load the box. The biggest concern for Stevenson is that his offensive line didn’t do him any favors last week, with the third-lowest yards before contact per attempt generated. Stevenson will have to do it all himself again this week in a tougher matchup.

DK Metcalf (WR)

I was worried about Metcalf in Week 1 getting shadowed by Patrick Surtain lll and it happened. Surtain lll shut down Metcalf as he followed him on 96% of his routes, allowing only 29 scoreless receiving yards. The same could happen in Week 2. Last week, Christian Gonzalez followed Ja’Marr Chase on 90% of his routes, and only 25 scoreless receiving yards were allowed. Overall, to open the season, Metcalf had a 16% target share, a 32.3% air-yard share, 1.21 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. In Week 1, New England ranked ninth in two high usage (54.3%). Last year against two-high, Metcalf had a 14.9% target share, a 30.3% air-yard share, 1.72 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. This isn’t a week to expect a ceiling game from Metcalf. He likely needs a touchdown, or it’ll be another quiet week for fantasy.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

Week 1 wasn’t the type of game I thought Smith-Njigba would open the season with. He finished with an 8% target share (two targets), a 3.5 aDOT, and a 5.6% first-read share. Among 104 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked 46th in route win rate. This week could bring better things for Smith-Njigba. In Week 1, New England ranked ninth in two high usage (54.3%). Last year, against two-high, Smith-Njigba had an 18.2% target share, 1.58 YPRR, and a 22.7% first-read share. He ranked 25th in TPRR against two high. Smith-Njigba should run about 86% of his routes against Marcus Jones (career: 65.1% catch rate and 90.7 passer rating).

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett only had a 65% route rate in Week 1, but he made the most of it with a 24% target share, a 42.6% air-yard share, and 4.28 YPRR as the WR22 in fantasy. In Week 1, New England ranked ninth in two high usage (54.3%). Last year, against two-high, Lockett had a 20.4% target share, a 41.5% air-yard share, 1.73 YPRR, and a 23.3% first-read share (led the team). With Gonzalez stuck to Metcalf, Lockett should see Jonathan Jones (2023: 57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) for most of the game. Geno Smith should lean on Smith-Njigba and Lockett this week.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Henry falls into the low-end matchup-based streaming bucket again for Week 2. Last week, he had an 82% route run rate, a 12.5% target share, a 21.1% air-yard share, the only end zone target for the passing game, and 0.58 YPRR. The biggest concern is Jacoby Brissett wasn’t looking for him early in progressions, as he had a minuscule 6.3% first-read share. That could be corrected this week against a secondary that allowed the eighth-highest receiving yards and yards per reception to tight ends last year.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith finished Week 1 as the QB7 in fantasy, ranking 12th in CPOE and sixth in fantasy points per dropback with the ninth-lowest off-target rate. Helped pad his fantasy output with 30 rushing yards and a score. This is a tough matchup that likely punts him back to the QB2 area code, though. Last year, New England allowed the tenth-fewest passing yards per game, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

Brissett isn’t fantasy viable until he and this passing attack show some life. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Week 1, he had the sixth-lowest yards per attempt and the seventh-lowest fantasy points per dropback while sitting at 19th in CPOE and 17th in off-target rate. With the seventh-fewest passing attempts in Week 1, Brissett doesn’t have the efficiency to overcome volume and the context of this offense.

Noah Fant (TE)

Fant is an uninspiring TE2 this week. Last week, he had a 68% route run rate with a 16% target share, 0.58 YPRR, one end zone target, and a 16.7% first-read share. New England was tough on tight ends last year, allowing the eighth-lowest yards per reception and second-fewest receiving yards and fantasy points per game.

I’m not considering any Patriots’ wide receiver option for fantasy lineups until this passing game shows some life. Only DeMario Douglas and Tyquan Thornton had route shares above 70%, and neither surpassed a 13% target share or 19% first-read share in Week 1. Seattle’s secondary is nasty as they allowed the lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and the fifth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers in Week 1.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Cleveland Browns vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• JAC -3, O/U 41.5
• Browns vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• I was hoping we would see a similar approach to opening the 2024 season to that we got from Jacksonville last year to closing the year. It didn’t happen. The Jags went slow and run-heavy, ranking 16th in neutral pace with the ninth-highest rushing rate.
• Cleveland was boring with pace (18th in neutral pace), but they did pass at the fourth-highest rate in neutral script.

Browns Players & Weekly Rankings

Jaguars Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Travis Etienne Jr. (RB)

Etienne had a ho-hum start to the 2024 season, playing 70% of the snaps with 14 touches and 59 total yards as the RB30 for the week. His tackle-breaking metrics are something to note but not get overly concerned about after only one game. Among 34 qualifying backs, he ranks 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 28th in yards after contact per attempt. The Browns were a low-key mediocre run defense last year, but after one week of football, they look to have improved. Again, it is only a one-game sample, but they allowed the 12th-lowest missed tackle rate, zero explosive runs, and the 10th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Etienne will need all the help he can get from his offensive line that opened the season, ranking 12th in yards before contact per attempt.

Jerome Ford (RB)

A decent amount of Ford’s production last week occurred in garbage time, but hey, fantasy points are fantasy points. The big takeaway is that Ford was the clear workhorse for Cleveland, playing 75% of the snaps with 18 touches and 69 total yards. He was the RB17 for Week 1. Ford was ok but not outstanding in tackle-breaking metrics. Among 34 qualifying backs, he ranked 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. Ford can volume his way to another solid day in Week 2, but the matchup is tough, so don’t expect a monster game. In Week 1, Jacksonville didn’t allow an explosive run while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate and the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper walked away from Week 1 with only two receptions and 15 receiving yards despite earning a solid volume clip. He had a 20% target share, a 47.7% air-yard share, and a 22.9% first-read share despite 0.31 YPRR. This is partially a Watson problem, but Cooper’s per-route metrics are also frightening. Among 78 qualifying wide receivers in Week 1, Cooper had the 23rd-lowest separation score and the tenth-lowest route win rate. We’ll see if this is an isolated finding that clears up quickly, but it had to be mentioned. Getting back to Watson, though, he is definitely part of the problem, as only 44.4% of Cooper’s targets were deemed catchable. If Cooper still has the juice, he should have no problem taking advantage of the Jags outside corner duo this week. He’ll run about 78% of his routes against Ronald Darby (83.3% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (career: 69.2% catch rate and 123.2 passer rating).

Christian Kirk (WR)

The Jaguars’ insistence on running the ball in Week 1 hurt Kirk, but his market share numbers were ok. He only saw four targets, securing one for 30 yards. He had an 80% route run rate with a 19% target share, a 29% air-yard share, 1,50 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Among 78 qualifying receivers, he ranked 31st in separation and 41st in route win rate. These aren’t amazing, but they also aren’t diarrhea-inducing numbers. In Week 1, the Browns utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (85.7%). Last year against single-high (among 84 qualifying receivers), Kirk ranked 21st in separation and 31st in route win rate. Kirk will run about 70% of his routes against Greg Newsome (2023: 59.7% catch rate and 80.8 passer rating). Cleveland was near league-average against slot receivers, ranking 20th in PPR points per target allowed.

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jeudy opened the 2024 season with a WR33 finish, which was heavily influenced by him getting in the end zone. He did have solid market share metrics with a 17.8% target share, a 31.4% air-yard share, and a 20% first-read share, although all he did was post 0.58 YPRR. His per-route numbers, though, do portray a receiver that was held by bad quarterback play. In Week 1, among 78 qualifying receivers, Jeudy ranked 18th in separation and 21st in route win rate. If Cooper is cooked, Jeudy could be the receiver in this offense to emerge with a big game in Week 2, running about 65% of his routes against Ronald Darby (83.3% catch rate and 158.3 passer rating) and Montaric Brown (career: 69.2% catch rate and 123.2 passer rating).

Evan Engram (TE)

Engram sustained a hamstring injury during warmups and has been ruled out.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence is a QB2 again this week with a brutal matchup. Last week, he was the QB23 in fantasy while ranking 13th in yards per attempt, 18th in CPOE, 17th in highly accurate throw rate, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback. The Cleveland secondary remains one of the best in the NFL. The Jags should continue to feature their ground attack in Week 2. Last year, Cleveland allowed the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating, the lowest CPOE, and the fourth-lowest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Deshaun Watson (QB)

Watson remains one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL. There was hope in the offseason that his game could bounce back in 2024. That hasn’t happened. In Week 1, among 32 starting quarterbacks, Watson had the third-lowest yards per attempt, the 13th-lowest CPOE, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-highest off-target rate. The good thing for Watson is he could fool people into believing he is back this week against a porous Jacksonville secondary. Last week, the Jags allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest passer rating, and the 13th-highest adjusted completion rate. Jacksonville sadly had the second-lowest pressure rating. The matchup is good for Watson. Let’s see if he can actually capitalize on it. I have my doubts.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

In Week 1, Thomas Jr. finished as the WR20 in fantasy, drawing a 19% target share, a 26.7% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share (tied for the team lead) with 2.61 YPRR. His touchdowns helped his fantasy outing immensely. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he ranked 43rd in route win rate. I’m not bullish on the rookie’s outlook this week against the stellar perimeter duo of Denzel Ward (2023: 51.5% catch rate and 77.3 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (2023: 49.3% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating). He will run about 72% of his routes against them. Last year, Cleveland allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Gabe Davis (WR)

Davis will also have to deal with Denzel Ward (2023: 51.5% catch rate and 77.3 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (2023: 49.3% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating) on about 73% of his routes, but I’ll say between Davis and Thomas Jr. I’m a little higher on Davis this week. In Week 1, Davis had a 14.3% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, 2.95 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. In Week 1, the Browns utilized single-high at the highest rate in the NFL (85.7%). Last year against single-high (among 84 qualifying receivers), Davis was 26th in separation and 16th in route win rate. These numbers stand out. With Davis’ 16.0 aDOT, his looks likely come downfield which hurts his outlook. Last year, Cleveland allowed the lowest passer rating and the third-lowest adjusted completion rate to deep passing. It’s a mixed bag for Davis in Week 2, but I won’t be surprised if he does haul in a deep target for a score.

Elijah Moore (WR)

In case anyone didn’t learn last year, Moore shouldn’t be rostered in fantasy. Last year he was the WR75 in fantasy points per game with only one game with more than 70 receiving yards. He managed only three games with weekly fantasy finishes of WR30 or higher. He opened the 2024 season as an afterthought in the Cleveland passing attack with an 11.1% target share, 0.18 YPRR, and an 11.4% first-read share.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -1.5, O/U 43.5
• Giants vs. Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Giants had the sixth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 13th in neutral passing rate in Week 1.
• It’s only been one game, but the lightning-fast Commanders’ offense we thought we were getting for 2024 didn’t happen in Week 1. Washington had the third-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate.

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Jones opened the 2024 season with an objectively disastrous performance as the QB32 in fantasy. Among 32 qualifying passers, he had the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, the 10th-lowest CPOE, and the fifth-lowest catchable target rate. It was BAD, BAD, BAD. At this point of his career, Jones just feels like damaged goods, but if there was one matchup in the NFL that could buy him a few more weeks as a starter, it’s the Commanders. In Week 1, Washington allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt, the highest passer rating, the sixth-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest adjusted completion rate. Washington also had the ninth-lowest pressure rate. Jones should have time to operate, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t implode in a clean pocket. Here’s to hope that Jones can return some QB2 viability in Week 2.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

Daniels finished Week 1 as the QB3 in fantasy points, but that was related to his rushing upside and not his passing ability. Daniels finished with 16 carries, 88 rushing yards, and two rushing touchdowns. His passing numbers were (to be kind) not great. Among 32 passers, he had the second-highest check-down rate, the ninth-lowest CPOE, the third-lowest aDOT, and the 12th-highest off-target rate. I still have faith in Daniels as a passer. Last week it was a series of checkdowns and scrambles. This isn’t sustainable. Daniels was too good as a collegiate passer to think he can’t get the ship pointed in the right direction. The Giants aren’t an overwhelming pass defense. Despite manufacturing the 11th-highest pressure rate last week, their secondary struggled, conceding the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the third-highest CPOE, and the fifth-highest passer rating.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. finished last week as the RB14 in fantasy points per game, playing 56% of the snaps with 15 touches and 89 total yards. His tackle-breaking metrics weren’t great, but it’s a one-game sample, so I’ll wipe it away because he was extremely good last year in a larger sample. Among 34 qualifying backs, he was 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. His offensive line didn’t do him any favors either, ranking 20th in yards before contact per attempt. Robinson could easily be a strong RB2 with borderline RB1 numbers this week against a Giants’ run defense that allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-highest yards after contact per attempt in Week 1.

Malik Nabers (WR)

In his first NFL game, Nabers finished as the WR32 in fantasy with a 16.7% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.38 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share. Among 78 qualifying receivers, he ranked 27th in separation and 53rd in route win rate. This is the perfect matchup for Nabers to show the world his talent if Jones can get him catchable targets, which is a massive question. Last week, oddly enough, it wasn’t as 85.7% of his targets were catchable. Nabers will run about 88% of his routes against Benjamin St. Juste (75% catch rate and 131.8 passer rating) and Noah Igbinoghene (career: 56.5% catch rate and 110.3 passer rating). Nabers is dealing with a knee issue, but he has been deemed good to go for Week 2. He was limited in practice on Thursday before upgrading to a full session on Friday.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

In Week 1, McLaurin wasn’t the target hog we were promised during draft season. He had only a 16.7% target share, a 64% air-yard share, 0.68 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. Washington’s offense looked like a unit that is still finding its way and will mature as quickly as their rookie quarterback does. Daniels took off running and checked down for most of the day, so I’m not hitting the panic button yet. This is a good get-right spot for Mclaurin. Last year, the Giants allowed the 12th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. McLaurin will run about 88% of his routes against Deonte Banks (60% catch rate and 138.3 passer rating) and Adoree’ Jackson (2023: 65.9% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating).

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Robinson surprised last week with a 26.2% target share (11 targets), a 33.3% air-yard share, and a 36.4% first-read share. Now, he only finished with 1.38 YPRR (44 receiving yards) with his 5.2 aDOT, but volume is volume, especially in PPR leagues. Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy last week and could out-kick that finish this week. He’ll run about 84% of his routes against Mike Sainristill (85.7% catch rate and 139.0 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Devin Singletary (RB)

Singletary finished as a middle-of-the-road RB3 last week (RB34) despite playing 70% of the snaps with 14 touches and 52 total yards. He didn’t manage an explosive run or a missed tackle forced, but he was sixth in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants’ line was offensive, logging in with the fifth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. This is another week of Singletary being a low-ceiling RB2/flex play against a run defense that, in Week 1, allowed the sixth-lowest missed tackle rate, the second-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the ninth-lowest yards per carry. This all happened despite Tampa Bay last week finishing with the eighth-highest yards before contact per attempt. Singletary will get swarmed as soon as he gets the handoffs.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

If you need a desperation flex play, then Ekeler is in the conversation. He played 53% of the snaps last week with six touches and 62 total yards. He accrued most of that production through the air (four receptions, 52 receiving yards). A lot of that had to do with Daniels’ reluctance to go downfield (second-highest check down rate), but that volume could easily dry up this week. Ekeler looks spry with the touches he received, but I’m not a big believer that his volume will be sustainable week to week. The other worry is his touchdown equity in this offense, as he only played 28.6% of the snaps inside the red zone. The Giants allowed the fewest receptions to backs last year but they did concede the ninth-highest yards per reception.

Luke McCaffrey (WR)

McCaffrey isn’t viable for fantasy lineups yet after seeing a 60% route run rate last week. He was the designed target/underneath weapon with a -0.3 aDOT, and two of his three targets being the designed variety. He had a 16.7% first-read share.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Last week, Ertz had a 72.7% route run rate with a 16.7% target share, 1.17 YPRR, and a 22.2% first-read share. He was the WR2 in the Washington offense. There will be weeks that he will have some steaming upside, but this isn’t one of them. Last year, New York allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -1, O/U 47.5
• Rams vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game will be filled with passing volume. Last week, the Rams sprinted, ranking seventh in neutral pace while ranking second in neutral passing rate. The Cards had the 12th-slowest neutral pace and the 10th-highest neutral passing rate.

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Cooper Kupp
• Kyren Williams
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

Stafford concluded Week 1 as the QB12 in fantasy, which was fueled by volume. He had the most passing attempts for any quarterback in Week 1 and could easily do it again in Week 2. His per-dropback numbers were more in the QB2 realm. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, and 16th in highly accurate throw rate. He should light up the Cardinals’ secondary if his patchwork offensive line, which has been decimated by injuries in Week 1, can hold up. Last week Arizona allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and passer rating while also checking in with the seventh-highest CPOE given up. Arizona did rank 12th in pressure rate in Week 1.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Murray walked away from Week 1 as the QB15. Even that high of a finish can be traced to his 57 yards rushing. His passing metrics were meh at best. He had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt and 12th-lowest aDOT as he faced the eighth-highest pressure rate. Murray had the 13th-highest check-down rate. We’ll see if that changes this week. He should have more time in the pocket in Week 2 against a Rams pass rush that had the seventh-lowest pressure rate in Week 1. The Rams’ pass defense is a mixed bag after one game, and new personnel all over the place. In Week 1, they allowed the 11th-highest yards per attempt and seventh-most passing yards, but they also permitted the fifth-lowest CPOE and 14th-fewest fantasy points. We’ll see how this unit evolves throughout the season, but this should be considered an average matchup for Murray.

James Conner (RB)

Conner finished Week 1 as the RB8 in fantasy with a 67% snap rate, 19 touches, and 83 total yards. His efficiency on the ground was concerning as he ranked 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 31st in yards after contact per attempt among 34 qualifying backs. I’m willing to explain this away as small sample variance, as Conner was one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL last year on a per-touch basis. It was good to see that his offensive line got a decent push up front, ranking seventh-best in yards before contact per attempt. The Rams defensive line got pushed around last week by the Lions, allowing the third-highest yards before contact per attempt. If the Cards line is for real they could open up holes again this week for Conner. The Rams also had the second-lowest stuff rate and the ninth-highest missed tackle rate last week. Conner is an RB1/2 again this week.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

One of the most concerning stat lines last week was Harrison Jr.’s box score. He had only a 9.7% target share, a 16.4% air-yard share, 0.12 YPRR, and a 14.3% first-read share. He secured only one of his three targets for four receiving yards. The per-route data isn’t any kinder. Among 78 qualifying receivers for Week 1, Harrison Jr. was 68th in separation and 72nd in route win rate. For a legendary prospect, this is the stuff of nightmares. We’ll see if this is an isolated sample or if Harrison Jr. becomes 2024, Quentin Johnston. My hope is this is just a one-game hiccup, but only time will tell. I’m not willing to sit him or bury him in the ranks after only one game. Harrison Jr. will run about 75% of his routes in Week 2 against Akhello Witherspoon (2023: 50% catch rate and 79.2 passer rating) and Tre’Davious White (66.7% catch rate and 149.3 passer rating), so the sledding doesn’t get any easier versus the Rams. Last year the Rams allowed the 14th-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Last week, after Puka Nacua left the game (2nd quarter through OT), Robinson had a 17.4% target share, a 19.6% air-yard share, 2.00 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share (second on the team tied with Tyler Johnson). Robinson should assume the WR2 role with Nacua out. In Week 1, among 78 qualifying receivers, Robinson ranked 33rd in separation and 13th in route win rate. These numbers check out as he was 18th in separation and 42nd in route win rate last year (among 125 qualifying receivers). Robinson will run about 66% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (2023: 65.2% catch rate and 91.9 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (career: 78% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Last year, the Cardinals allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. They could easily be in that area code again in 2024.

Tyler Johnson (WR)

Last week, after Puka Nacua left the game (2nd quarter through OT), Johnson had a 21.7% target share, a 12.3% air-yard share (4.4 aDOT), 3.67 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share. He posted 79 receiving yards in Week 1, but 63 of those yards came on one play. Among 78 qualifying receivers in Week 1, he was 53rd in separation and 32nd in route win rate. Johnson will have his moments as a starter for the Rams as long as Nacua is out. He should be the clear WR3 for the team. Johnson will run about 85% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (2023: 65.2% catch rate and 91.9 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (career: 78% catch rate and 139.7 passer rating). Last year, the Cardinals allowed the third-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Johnson is a viable flex play for Week 2, especially in deeper formats.

Colby Parkinson (TE)

Parkinson assumed the full-time tight end role for the Rams immediately in Week 1. He had an 84% route run rate with a 10.2% target share, 1.09 YPRR, and an 11.1% first-read share. None of these market share numbers will jump off the page, but he’s streamer-worthy this week, considering the matchup with Arizona. The Cards allowed the fourth-highest yards per reception and the second-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends last year.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Greg Dortch (WR)

Harrison Jr.’s loss was Dortch’s gain in Week 1. Dortch ranked second on the team with a 25.8% target share and 31.8% air-yard share. He produced 1.96 YPRR and handled a 28.6% first-read share. He finished as the WR35 for the week in fantasy. Last year, he was a WR3 or better in four of the seven games in which he played at least 64% of the snaps. This could easily be an isolated incident, as he was 89th in separation and 116th in route win rate among 125 qualifying receivers. Dortch is a decent flex play in PPR leagues that will run about 75% of his routes against Cobie Durant (65.2% catch rate and 101.1 passer rating). Last year, the Rams allowed the 13th-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

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