Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions

• DET -7, O/U 51
• Buccaneers vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game projects to be extremely slow. Last week, Tampa Bay had the third-slowest neutral pace, while Detroit checked in with the second-slowest neutral pace mark. The Buccaneers ranked 13th in neutral passing rate, while Detroit leaned on their run game with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Mike Evans
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Mayfield was amazing in Week 1 as the QB2 in fantasy. He was cool in the pocket while displaying off-script playmaking ability and flashing some rushing upside (21 yards). Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt, sixth in CPOE, fifth in adjusted completion rate, and third in fantasy points per dropback. Mayfield faces a tougher test in Week 2, but he looks up to the challenge. In Week 1, Detroit allowed the 13th-lowest yards per attempt and the 12th-lowest passer rating while sitting at 16th in CPOE. The Lions ranked 10th in pressure rate with the ninth-lowest time to throw allowed. Mayfield was stellar in Week 1 against pressure, though, as he was first in pressured passing grade and ninth in adjusted completion rate when pressured. Mayfield could post QB1 numbers again this week.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff didn’t start the 2024 season off on the right foot as the QB18 in fantasy. Among 33 qualified passers, he was 12th in yards per attempt, but also he had the fourth-lowest CPOE and the 11th-highest off-target throw rate (16th in highly accurate throw rate). He could rectify that in Week 2 against what looks like a pass-funnel defense. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing yards per game, and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Goff should have all day in the pocket. In Week 1, Tampa Bay had the fourth-lowest pressure rate and the fourth-highest time to pressure.

Rachaad White (RB)

Different season, but the same result. White was the clear workhorse for Tampa Bay, as he was awesome in the passing game and forgettable as a rusher. He swallowed up a 20% target share while producing 3.75 YPRR with 75 receiving yards. He finished with a 70% snap rate, 21 touches, and 106 total yards as the RB16 in fantasy. Among 34 qualifying backs, he was 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt (13%) and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. White had the fourth-highest stuff rate among sampled backs. He’ll have to do most of his damage through the air again in Week 2. The Lions fielded a stellar run defense in Week 1 which continued a trend they started last year. They allowed zero explosive runs or missed tackles, with only 1.70 yards after contact per attempt. Last year, Detroit allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and the second-fewest rushing yards per game. White will be a volume play.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Godwin came out the gate swinging last week as the WR8 in fantasy scoring. He commanded a 26.7% target share, a 22.3% air-yard share, and a 29.2% first-read share, producing a cool 3.77 YPRR. Godwin ran out of the slot on 50% of his snaps, which was a little low, considering all of the off-season reports discussing his return to heavy slot usage. I do think that probably ticks up, depending on the matchups moving forward. Detroit had the ninth-highest single high usage last week (60.8%). Last year in Weeks 14-18, against single high, Godwin led the team with 2.45 YPRR and 0.125 FD/RR and was second behind only Mike Evans in target share (19.1%) and first-read share (21.1%). Godwin will match up with Terrion Arnold (80% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (69.2% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating) when on the perimeter in Week 2.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Williams was flat-out amazing in Week 1. This was the version of Williams that I saw as a prospect. It was so glorious to see him crushing cornerback’s souls in Week 1. Williams was the WR5 in scoring, hogging a 32.1% target share, a 68.1% air-yard share, and a 42.9% first-read share with 4.32 YPRR. While his aDOT was 15.4, six of his eight targets came within 19 yards of the line of scrimmage (50% within nine yards of the line of scrimmage), so don’t look at him as a field-stretching-only option. Williams will run about 73% of his routes against Jamel Dean (2023: 67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and the combination of Christian Izien (2023: 80% catch rate and 104.8 passer rating) and Bryce Hall (2023: 58.3% catch rate and 49.3 passer rating). Williams could easily stack another monster outing to begin his 2024 campaign. He has been listed as questionable (ankle) after practicing on a limited basis all week.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery continued the steady RB2 production that we have come to love from him during his time in Detroit. He was the RB17 while playing 47% of the snaps and rolling up 18 touches and 93 total yards. Predictably, he played 60% of the rushing play snaps in Week 1, but what’s also interesting is that he only had a 40% snap rate in the red zone as Gibbs took the lead. Among 34 qualifying backs, Montgomery ranked sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Tampa Bay still looks like a team in 2024 that you can’t run on. In Week 1, they allowed the ninth-lowest missed tackle rate and the third-lowest yard after contact per attempt. Last year, they gave up the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate and rushing touchdown rate, and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate. Montgomery needs a touchdown to pay off in fantasy this week likely.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

McMillan was the clear and distant WR3 for the Bucs in Week 1. Tampa Bay utilized him as a deep threat (18.0 aDOT). He had a 65% route run rate with a 10% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 1.45 YPRR, and a 12.5% first-read share. This isn’t the role we should covet against a Lions’ secondary that was 18th in deep completion rate allowed last year and only gave up a 25% deep completion rate in Week 1. If McMillan comes down with a deep shot in Week 2, he could pay off, but it’s more unlikely considering the matchup. McMillan will run about 50% of his routes against Terrion Arnold (80% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Carlton Davis (69.2% catch rate and 122.0 passer rating) when on the perimeter in Week 2.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton is only a low-end matchup-based streaming option. With McMillan in town, Otton has been bumped further down the target pecking order this year. In Week 1, he only had a 6.7% target share and 8.3% first-read share with 0.21 YPRR. If you wedge him into a lineup, you’re praying for a touchdown. Last year, Detroit was a good matchup for tight ends, allowing the seventh-most receiving yards, the fifth-highest yards per reception, and the eighth-most fantasy points to the position.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

Indianapolis Colts vs. Green Bay Packers

• IND -3, O/U 40
• Colts vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Week 1, with Jordan Love under center, Green Bay ranked third in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate. The pace-up aspect of their offense could continue with Malik Willis starting, but I think Green Bay leans into its run game and shies away from passing.
• Indy slowed things down in Week 1, ranking 17th in neutral pace with the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Colts Players & Weekly Rankings

Packers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Anthony Richardson
• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Josh Jacobs (RB)

Jacobs finished Week 1 as the RB25 in fantasy points per game, playing 73% of the snaps with 18 touches and 104 total yards. It’s only one game, but Jacobs’ tackle-breaking juice looks to have returned for the 2024 season. Among 34 qualifying backs, Jacobs ranks eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. While Malik Willis could hurt the overall efficiency of the offense, this could be a week for Green Bay to ride Jacobs and lean on their offensive line. Last week, Indy was steamrolled up front by Houston’s offensive line, finishing with the third-lowest stuff rate and the fourth-highest yards before contact per attempt. They still held Joe Mixon to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate, but Houston played bully ball on the ground. Green Bay could do the same. Last week, their offensive line was second in yards before contact per attempt and ranked 11th in run-blocking grade. Expect Green Bay to lean on Jacobs this week.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman remains the clear WR1 for Indy. A heavy infusion of target volume didn’t save Pittman from finishing last week as the WR58. He did gobble up a 42.1% target share, a 24.7% air-yard share, and a 38.9% first-read share with 1.55 YPRR last week. Among 104 qualifying receivers, Pittman ranked 22nd in route win rate. Green Bay opened the year with the 11th-highest rate of single-high (59%). Last year, Pittman was also their go-to against single-high with a 29.6% target share, a 31.1% air-yard share, 2.09 YPRR, and a 37.3% first-read share. Pittman could get shadowed this week by Jaire Alexander (2023: 71.8% catch rate and 107.1 passer rating). Alexander followed A.J. Brown last week on 69.4% of his routes. Brown burned him in the open field for a long score, but Pittman doesn’t have those type of wheels after the catch. It should be a good matchup.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs was limited in practice on Wednesday (ankle) and Thursday before practicing in full on Friday. He has been listed as questionable. He may return this week, but it’s impossible to project his snap count for Week 2. The team has plenty of healthy and talented receivers to vie for snaps, so there’s no reason to push Downs back into a full-time role in his first game back. Downs is a sit this week.

Alec Pierce (WR)

Pierce erupted in Week 1 with 125 receiving yards and a score as the WR10 in fantasy. He only saw three targets in the game, but in Indy’s run-heavy offense, that amounted to a 15.8% target share with a 36.7% air-yard share. Pierce had an ungodly 38.7 aDOT. If Alexander is following Pittman all over the field, Pierce will match up with Eric Stokes (career: 59.4% catch rate and 98.6 passer rating). Pierce could burn this secondary deep in Week 2. Last year, Green Bay allowed the sixth-highest deep completion rate and the ninth-highest passer rating to deep passing. The worry for Pierce for Week 2 is that if Downs plays, Pierce could split snaps with Mitchell on the perimeter. The Colts’ wide receiver room after Michael Pittman could become an uneasy rotation. Pierce is a dangerous dice roll for Week 2.

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

Mitchell is a weekly high upside flex swing, but he carries a substantial amount of risk if Downs is active. Mitchell could split snaps with Pierce as the outside receiver opposite of Pittman, with Downs working in the slot. Mitchell could also be a full-time player operating between the slot and perimeter with Downs and Pierce limited. There’s no way to tell how this situation will work out if Downs is active for Week 2. If Downs is ruled out, Mitchell should play a full-time role in a similar way to Week 1. Last week, he and Richardson almost connected on a beautiful deep ball with which he would have waltzed into the endzone. That would have changed the complexion of his fantasy week massively. Mitchell had a 26.3% target share, a 26.9% air-yard share, and 27.8% air-yard share.

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Malik Willis (QB)

Take this with a grain of salt, but Willis was pretty good this preseason for the Titans. Among 61 qualifying passers, he was eighth in passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, and 16th in adjusted completion rate. The rushing upside with Willis is obvious. In 2022, in his three starts, Willis averaged 6.6 rushing attempts and 31.6 rushing yards per game. Once upon a time in 2018, Matt LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Tennessee, with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. In that season, Mariota was ninth in designed runs, eighth in carries per game, and seventh in red zone carries among quarterbacks. Last year, Indy allowed the 10th-highest yards per attempt to passers while also ranking 17th in passing yards per game and 19th in CPOE permitted. Willis could return solid QB2 numbers in Week 2.

Christian Watson (WR)

Downgrade the entire passing attack for Green Bay until Jordan Love is back under center. Last week, Watson had a 65% route run rate with a 14.3% target share, a 21.4% air-yard share, and a 16.7% first-read share (second on the team). Watson led the team with three end-zone targets. He snagged one of them for a score as the WR39 in fantasy last week. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Watson led Green Bay in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. Among 92 qualifying receivers last year, Watson ranked 21st in separation against Cover 3. Watson could lead the way this week. Watson will run about 61% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (61.1% catch rate and 98.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed had an insane performance in Week 1 as the WR1 for the week. On top of rolling up 138 receiving yards, he took a rushing attempt 33 yards for a score. Crazy sauce stuff. He had a 17.1% target share, a 34.4% air-yard share, 5.31 YPRR, and a 16.7% first-read share (second on the team). In Week 1, among 104 qualifying wide receivers, Reed ranked 42nd in separation and 49th in route win rate. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Reed ranked fourth on the team in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. Reed ran from the slot on 88.5% of his routes in Week 1. Last year, Indy allowed the ninth-lowest PPR points per target and the second-lowest receiving yards to slot receivers. Reed will have to deal with Kenny Moore (2023: 79.3% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating) all day. There’s plenty of reasons to consider sitting Reed this week related to the quarterback play, but considering the matchup as well, it just adds even more on top of that vibe. Reed has been listed as questionable (calf, shin) after being downgraded to a limited practice on Friday. He logged full sessions on Wednesday and Thursday.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs had a 20% target share, a 23.1% air-yard share, 1.67 YPRR, and a 29.2% first-read share in Week 1. Despite the heavy usage, he was the WR48 for the week. Last week, Indy was second in the NFL in Cover 3 rate (52.6%). Last year, Doubs was third among Green Bay’s top four wideouts (Watson, Doubs, Reed, & Wicks) in separation and route win rate against Cover 3. He did lead the group in TPRR (24%) against Cover 3, so it could be another heavy usage week without much to show for it for Doubs. Doubs will run about 93% of his routes against Dallis Flowers (61.1% catch rate and 98.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

Dontayvion Wicks (WR)

Last week, Wicks only had a 37.8% route run rate. That’s not enough routes per game to consider him in fantasy weekly. Now add on top that Malik Willis will be under center, and there’s no way anyone can plug Wicks into a fantasy lineup for Week 2.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

I have always been a proud card-carrying member of the Tucker Kraft hive. Despite this, it surprised me that Kraft was Green Bay’s clear starter at tight end in Week 1. He had a 56.8% route run rate, an 8.6% target share, 1.76 YPRR, and a 4.2% first-read share. He entered the game banged up, which could also account for the route run rate not being higher. Kraft is a dart throw only, though, this week with Malik Willis under center. The entire passing attack is in question. This is a good matchup for Kraft, though, if Willis can somehow provide competent quarterback play. Last year, Indy allowed the 10th-most receiving yards and fantasy points to tight ends.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings

• SF -5, O/U 46
• 49ers vs. Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Week 1, the 49ers were 14th in neutral pace and 11th in neutral rushing rate.
• The Vikings had the second-slowest neutral pace and the 12th-highest neutral passing rate to open the season.

49ers Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy played well in Week 1 despite it not equaling out to a good fantasy day. He finished as QB25 in fantasy scoring, but among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked ninth in yards per attempt and CPOE and 11th in hero throw rate. The matchup for Purdy is a middle-of-the-road one. Toss out last year’s Vikings’ pass defense stats as the front office upgraded their outside corners this offseason. Also, a look into Week 1 won’t help because they faced Daniel Jones, who tends to make every pass defense look elite. The reality is if Purdy can quietly carve up the Jets’ secondary in Week 1, then he should have no problems doing so in Week 2 against the Vikings if he can navigate the blitz. Last week, Brian Flores continued his blitz-heavy ways, ranking seventh in blitz rate and third in pressure rate. Last year, Purdy was sixth in passing grade and first in yards per attempt and big-time throw rate against the blitz.

Jordan Mason (RB)

Mason crushed the Jets and every expectation anyone should have had for his first starting performance. Mason finished with an 81% snap rate, 29 touches, and 152 total yards as the RB5 for the week. Among 34 qualifying backs, Mason ranks 10th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. In Week 1, Minnesota was again a brutal rushing matchup, not allowing an explosive run with only a 5% missed tackle rate and 2.19 yards after contact per attempt. These numbers look eerily similar to last season when Minnesota surrendered the lowest explosive run rate and the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and rushing yards per game. Mason has a tough hill to climb, but he can overcome it with volume, talent, and one of the best offensive minds in the NFL.

Aaron Jones (RB)

Jones looked in vintage form in Week 1 as the RB9 for the week. He played 55% of the snaps for Minnesota with 16 touches and 109 total yards. Among 34 qualifying running backs, he was second in explosive run rate, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards after contact per attempt. If he can stay healthy all year, Jones could be one of the best values of draft season. Jones quietly has a solid matchup this week against the 49ers. In Week 1, they allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and the fifth-highest missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. This lines up well with last season when San Francisco gave up the 11th-highest explosive run rate and the seventh-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR)

Samuel led the way in Week 1 with a 31% target share, a 29.5% air-yard share, 2.08 YPRR, and a 31.8% first-read share as the WR12 for the week. He should do so again in Week 2 against Minnesota’s two-high defense. In Week 1, Minny utilized two high on a crazy 83.7% of their coverage snaps to lead the NFL. Last year, against two high defenses, Samuel was a target hog with a 26.3% target share, a 21.5% air-yard share, 3.23 YPRR, and a 36% first-read share. Last year, among 104 qualifying receivers, Samuel ranked 35th in separation against two high. Samuel will run about 50% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (2023: 56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (2023: 63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating).

Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

Last week Aiyuk wasn’t nearly as limited as we were led to believe walking into Week 1. He had a 75.8% route run rate with a 17.2% target share, a 19.1% air-yard share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 13.6% first-read share. That first-read share ranked fourth among the 49ers’ starting skill players. We shouldn’t be surprised by that, though, as Samuel was slated to lead the passing attack with the coverage matchup that they faced in Week 1. It should be much the same this week, with Samuel doing the heavy lifting. In Week 1, Minny utilized two high on a crazy 83.7% of their coverage snaps to lead the NFL. Last year, against two high defenses, Aiyuk had an 18% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share (15.5 aDOT), 2.58 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Aiyuk is still getting his legs under him after missing most of the offseason with trade rumors and contract issues swirling. Aiyuk will run about 80% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (2023: 56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (2023: 63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating). I expect his route share to trickle up, but this could be another sleepy week for Aiyuk.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison has been ruled out for Week 2 (ankle).

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Don’t look now, but Sam Darnold is playing good football. Yes, I know it was against the Giants, but it was still impressive. Last week, among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, Darnold ranked seventh in yards per attempt, third in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Darnold faces a tougher test in Week 2 against a 49ers pass defense that held Aaron Rodgers in check. Last year, San Francisco allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Darnold can likely return decent QB2 numbers in Week 2, but keep your expectations in check.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans

• NYJ -3.5, O/U 41
• Jets vs. Titans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Week 1, the Jets ranked 19th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate. The pace was a tad surprising, as an Aaron Rodgers-led offense is usually a bottom-five neutral-pace situation. The passing rate was also shocking, but after basically two years of no football for Rodgers, it makes sense that the team would try to ease him in.
• Tennessee didn’t shock anyone by ranking seventh in neutral passing rate last week, but it might be eye-opening to some that they had the 12th-slowest neutral pace.

Jets Players & Weekly Rankings

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tony Pollard (RB)

After watching Week 1, I don’t think we gave Pollard enough credit in the offseason for how much of this backfield he could possess in 2024. Pollard finished Week 1 as the RB11 in fantasy, playing 61% of the snaps with 19 touches and 94 total yards. Among 34 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 13th in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact per attempt. This is an average matchup for Pollard if Levis can somehow keep the Jets from stacking the box. In Week 1, New York allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt while lining up well with 2023. Last year the Jets allowed the 11th-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the second-most gap rushing yards (Pollard 68% gap in Week 1).

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears is a decent flex play this week. In Week 1, he played 45% of the snaps with eight touches and 32 total yards. He was the Titan’s primary passing-down back, accounting for 58% of the snaps on passing plays. The problem is he only managed 25% of the snaps when they got to the red zone, so the touchdown upside here is slim unless Spears breaks a long play. Spears had a 12.5% target share and 20% TPRR in Week 1. His pass game usage is his best route to flex appeal this week. Last year, the Jets allowed the 13th-highest receptions and the seventh-highest receiving yards and yards per reception to backs.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Ridley was fed a monster market share in Week 1 and is likely to get similar usage in Week 2. Last week, he had a 21.9% target share, a 70.6% air-yard share (yes, you read that correctly), 1.56 YPRR, and a 28% first-read share. The problem is that with Levis struggling as badly as he did, it didn’t matter much, as Ridley was the WR58 for Week 1. That’s likely the case again for Week 2. Ridley will run about 83% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (2023: 56.9% catch rate and 76.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (2023: 61.4% catch rate and 85.1 passer rating). Last year the Jets allowed the fourth-lowest PPR points per target and the fewest receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers.

Allen Lazard (WR)

Lazard popped off for a huge game in Week 1. While we can poke holes in the fantasy finish (WR3), as one of his scores came in garbage time, the usage was fantastic. Lazard had a 90% route share with a 31% target share, a 48.4% air-yard share, 3.18 YPRR, and a 33.3% first-read share. Among 104 qualifying receivers, Lazard ranked ninth in separation and eighth in route win rate. Likely, neither he nor Garrett Wilson will see a shadow from L’Jarius Snead, who followed D.J. Moore on only 53% of his routes in Week 1. Lazard will run about 75% of his routes against Snead (60% catch rate and 77.1 passer rating) and Chidobe Awuzie (50% catch rate and 58.3 passer rating)

Fantasy Football Week 2 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Rodgers was noticeably shaking off the rust in Week 1. Among 32 quarterbacks, he ranked 10th in yards per attempt and ninth in highly accurate throw rate, but he was also 22nd in CPOE, 19th in off-target rate, and 15th in fantasy points per dropback. Tennessee had a fantastic defensive showing in Week 1, but it was against rookie Caleb Williams, so let’s take the results with a grain of salt. After one week of NFL action, the Titans have allowed the lowest yards per attempt, the fewest passing yards, and the sixth-lowest passer rating. Their pass rush was okay but not earth-shattering, with the 10th-best time to pressure, while they only ranked 16th in pressure rate. Rodgers likely puts up QB2 numbers again this week as he continues to round into form.

Will Levis (QB)

There’s no way Levis is finding his way into my lineups this week especially after his horrendous Week 1 showing. Among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Week 1, Levis had the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest catchable target rate as the QB27 in fantasy. I don’t see any of those numbers improving this week against the Jets vaunted secondary. Last year New York allowed the fewest fantasy points per game, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt and passing touchdowns, and the second-lowest CPOE to quarterbacks.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

In Week 1, Hopkins only had a 23% route run rate and one target. That probably ticks up this week, but we can’t assume that he will be a full-time player. Add that to a tough matchup against the Jets’ secondary, and he’s an easy must-sit player for Week 2.

Tyler Boyd (WR)

It’s not worth worrying about Boyd as a flex play this week. Levis has to improve before he can enter the fray of fantasy flex plays. Last week, Boyd had a 15.6% target share, 0.58 YPRR, and a 20% first-read share. Levis has to prove he can support any wide receiver, much less a yawn-inducing slot option like Boyd before we can consider him for lineups. Last year, the Jets allowed the fewest PPR points per target to opposing slot receivers.

Mike Williams (WR)

Williams remains only a stash option for the end of benches. In Week 1, he only ran four routes. His playing time will slowly ramp up, but we don’t have a concrete timetable for that, so if you have to drop him, I absolutely understand. He’s not in consideration for fantasy lineups right now.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Conklin isn’t on the streaming radar until he earns more of a market share in this offense or Rodgers starts balling out. Last week he had a 77% route share, but he did relatively nothing with it. He only drew a 6.9% target share (two targets) and a 4.8% first-read share. Tennessee was also stout against tight ends last year, allowing the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the third-fewest fantasy points to the position.

Chig Okonkwo (TE)

Okonkwo isn’t fantasy-viable despite securing a touchdown last week. He only had a 50% route share, which amounted to a 6.3% target share (two targets) and an 8% first-read share. Levis has to prove he can play better before we should ever consider a part-time tight end/tertiary receiving option in this Titans offense.

BUF vs. MIA | LV vs. BAL | NO vs. DAL | LAC vs. CAR | TB vs. DET | IND vs. GB | SF vs. MIN | NYJ vs. TEN | SEA vs. NE | CLE vs. JAC | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. ARI | CIN vs. KC | PIT vs. DEN | CHI vs. HOU | ATL vs. PHI

For a limited time, you can save $30 off your first month of Fubo (Try for Free)