Dallas Cowboys vs. Cleveland Browns

• CLE -2.5, O/U 41
• Cowboys vs. Browns Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Weeks 6-18 last year, Dallas ranked fifth in neutral pace and passing rate. I expect a similar approach in 2024.
• Last year, with Joe Flacco starting, Cleveland was 11th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral passing rate. I don’t know if they will continue to operate like this for the entire 2024 season, but I do think they will try and run it back and see if Deshaun Watson can keep up with this approach.

Cowboys Players & Positional Rankings

Browns Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• CeeDee Lamb

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Last year, Prescott finished as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, having arguably the best season of his NFL career. Prescott really started balling out after Week 5, and Dallas leaned into the passing game. In Weeks 6-18, Prescott was the QB1 in fantasy points per game while ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate, first in CPOE, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Prescott will have his work cut out for him in Week 1 against a Browns’ secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating last year.

Jerome Ford (RB)

Ford should be the every-down do-it-all back for Cleveland to open the season. Last season, in Weeks 3-17, when Ford was the starter, he averaged 14.9 touches and 66.6 total yards as the RB20 in fantasy. Ford played well, ranking 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 16th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces a confounding Dallas Cowboys run defense, depending on what metric you look at from last year. On one hand, they allowed the second-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the 10th-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Those are frightening stats, but this run defense also had the 12th-lowest stuff rate while allowing the fourth-highest success rate to gap runs and ranking 17th in yards per carry permitted to gap runs (Ford 56.9% gap). Ford is best viewed as a volume-based RB2/3.

Rico Dowdle (RB)

Dowdle is a McCarthy favorite who will compete with Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook to be the lead back for this offense. It’s easily possible he is the best back on this roster, considering his current competition. Last year, among 53 qualifying backs, he ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt while also having the 23rd lowest stuff rate. Dowdle is nothing more than a middle-of-the-road flex for Week 1 because we have no clue what the division of labor will be. The matchup is nice, though, so if you need a flex with some upside, I don’t hate wedging Dowdle into lineups in a pinch. Last year, Cleveland allowed the highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt while also giving up the second-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Amari Cooper (WR)

Cooper didn’t show any signs of slowing down last year. Last year, he finished as the WR17 in fantasy points per game while ranking 23rd in target share (22.1%), 13th in air-yard share (39%), and 12th in YPRR. Watson, looking like a hollowed-out version of his former self, didn’t stop Cooper either, as he averaged 96 receiving yards per game with 2.96 YPRR and 0.123 FD/RR. Cooper faces a secondary that allowed the 11th-fewest receiving yards and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers last year. Those numbers don’t instill a lot of confidence, but with DaRon Bland out for a while, Cooper will face Trevon Diggs (recovering from a torn ACL) and rookie Caelen Carson for most of the game. The corner matchup isn’t the limiting factor here. It’s the quarterback play of Watson. The hope is that Cooper remains quarterback-proof in 2024.

David Njoku (TE)

Njoku took flight with Joe Flacco last year as the TE7 in fantasy. The worry is what he did with Cleveland’s current starting quarterback. In the five games Watson played a full-time role, Njoku had a 15% target share with 1.23 yards per route run, 35.2 receiving yards per game, only one end zone target, and 0.035 first downs per route run. His 8.5 PPR points per game would have landed him as the TE17 last year. No matter how you slice it, that’s nightmare fuel for Njoku. Sadly, it could be a quiet opener for Njoku against a defense that allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends last year.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson finished last season as the TE10 in fantasy points per game. He was 17th in yards per route run and 15th in first downs per route run despite ranking tenth in receiving yards per game. Ferguson should swallow up target volume this season and finish again as a low-end TE1. This is a game where you should consider streaming options over him, though. Cleveland was a shutdown defense to tight ends last year. They allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game, the second-lowest yards per reception, and the fewest receiving yards to the position. Ferguson likely needs a touchdown this week to make you feel good about starting him.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Deshaun Watson (QB)

Last year, in his full games played, Watson averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Watson’s rushing did most of the heavy lifting for that production. He averaged 28.4 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked eighth-best last year among quarterbacks (minimum five games started). As a passer, he was objectively a replacement-level quarterback. Among 48 qualifying quarterbacks, he finished 28th in CPOE, 36th in adjusted completion rate, 35th in catchable target rate, and 36th in highly accurate target rate. He’ll need every bit of rushing equity to turn in a good performance against Dallas in Week 1. Last year, the Cowboys allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt, the fifth-fewest passing yards per game, and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Ezekiel Elliott (RB)

Who will be the leading ball carrier for Dallas in 2024? Elliott? Rico Dowdle? Dalvin Cook? We shall see. Unless Jerry Jones is down on the field calling plays for Dallas, I will make my bets on the other backs in this backfield. Elliott looked like a back on his last legs last year. Last season, among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 45th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. No bueno. The on-paper matchup for Dallas’s backs is mouth-watering, but it’s fair to question whether they have the juice to take advantage of it. Last year, Cleveland allowed the highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt while also giving up the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Elliott is a touchdown-dependent flex dart throw.

Brandin Cooks (WR)

Cooks was the WR43 in fantasy last year. In Weeks 6-18 last year, among 83 qualifying receivers, Cooks ranked 45th in receiving yards per game, 61st in target share, 57th in yards per route run, and 44th in first downs per route run. In Week 1, he faces a Browns’ secondary that led the NFL in single-high usage last year (65.4%). Against single-high last year, Cooks had a 16.3% target share, 1.79 YPRR, and 0.087 FD/RR. None of these metrics are awe-inspiring. Cooks is a sit for Week 1 that will run about 64% of his routes against Denzel Ward (51.5% catch rate and 77.3 passer rating) and Martin Emerson Jr. (49.3% catch rate and 53.3 passer rating).

Jerry Jeudy (WR)

Jeudy has been all hope and hype to this point in his career and has little on-field production to justify it. Yes, he had a 2022 campaign, but the other three years of his career have been lackluster. Last season, he was the WR55 in fantasy points per game. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 40th in target share, 42nd in YPRR, 46th in receiving yards per game, and 64th in FD/RR. He draws a tough matchup in Week 1 against a Dallas secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards and PPR points per target to slot receivers last year. Jeudy will have to contend with Jourdan Lewis (67.6% catch rate and 105.1 passer rating) all day.

Washington Commanders vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• TB -3.5, O/U 42.5
• Commanders vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Commanders will be a fast paced play volume extravaganza. During Kliff Kingsbury’s tenure in Arizona, his offense ranked second in neutral pace and 11th in neutral passing rate. It’s wheels up in Week 1.
• The Buccaneers could tumble down the pace and passing rate rankings this year with Liam Coen at the helm. Last year Tampa Bay was 17th in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate. In 2022, when Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Rams, his offense had the third-slowest neutral pace while ranking 17th in neutral passing rate. Yes, Sean McVay had a massive say in the offensive flow, but Coen was also a voice in that room.

Commanders Players & Positional Rankings

Buccaneers Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Mike Evans

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

The Daniels’ show begins in Week 1. We know the rushing upside he possesses, but let’s talk about his passing upside. During his final season at LSU, Daniels ranked in the top six in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, and big-time throw rate. Daniels can carve up this secondary. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the third-highest passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied). The Bucs ranked 21st in pressure rate last year. If that holds up in Week 1, Daniels should have time in the pocket to burn them deep. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest deep completion rate. If you drafted Daniels, enjoy the show.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB)

Robinson Jr. will be quite good this year, but he opens with a brutal matchup to begin the 2024 season. Last year, he didn’t get enough credit for his performance. Robinson Jr. was the RB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 22nd in explosive run rate, 13th in yards after contact per attempt, and fifth in yards per route run. In the 12 games in which he played at least 40% of the snaps, Robinson averaged 15.5 touches and 77.9 total yards per game. Robinson Jr. will probably sniff at least 15 touches in Week 1, but he probably needs a touchdown to pay off. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Robinson is an RB2/3.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is set to bounce back this year if Daniels is the passer that I think he is. Last year, he finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but his WR21 rank in expected fantasy points per game is closer to what I hope we get in 2024. Last season, he still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Sam Howell was a crushing blow of inefficiency, though ranking 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. If Daniels has time in the pocket in Week 1, McLaurin should have a boom game. Last year, Tampa Bay utilized single-high on 53.4% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single-high, McLaurin had 1.96 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share. McLaurin will line up against Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) for most of the day. Last season, the Bucs allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Yes, I know you were looking for Ben Sinnott, aka the Lawmaker here. I’d love to write up Sinnott as a Week 1 play, but I have no clue what his snap share and routes per dropback rate will be. Just because I’m avoiding him here means he’s likely to score a touchdown this week. Now that I got that out of the way, I’m going to puke after saying this, but Ertz is a good streaming option for Week 1. Last year, he looked every bit like the player you’d think is on the back nine of his career. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he did rank tenth in target share but was also 39th in YPRR and 40th in FD/RR. Ertz is a volume and matchup play. Last year, Tampa Bay was ripped apart by tight ends giving up the second-most receiving yards, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

If you’re looking for upside at your QB2 spot this week in Superflex leagues, look no further than Mayfield. He was the QB17 in fantasy points per game last year, ranking 18th in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and 20th in fantasy points per dropback. None of this sounds overwhelmingly enticing, but the matchup is glorious. Washington will likely be a better pass defense than they were last year, but that’s not saying much when there’s a case to be made that they were the worst pass defense in the NFL in 2023. Last season, Washington allowed the most passing yards per game and passing touchdowns while also surrendering the third-highest yards per attempt. This game could easily shoot out in Week 1 if the Commanders’ offense can push back on the other side.

Rachaad White (RB)

White was a volume king last year, which helped propel him to RB10 in fantasy. He ranked fourth in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and fourth in weighted opportunities. He also ranked top-ten in carries (second), targets (ninth), and red zone touches (ninth). The problem when we look at his 2023 season is that his efficiency was objectively bad. Among 49 qualifying backs, White ranked 42nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 40th in explosive run rate, and 45th in yards after contact per attempt. White could get similar volume in 2024, and if so, that starts in Week 1. Washington’s defense is an enigma for 2024 with new personnel and a new scheme with Dan Quinn’s arrival. Even with all of that, I don’t think the Commanders’ run defense will be a top-shelf unit, as they were a bottom-five collection last season. In 2023, Washington allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game and the 11th-highest yards after contact per attempt with the eighth-lowest stuff rate. White could volume his way to an RB1 week to begin the 2024 season.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Godwin stumbled out of the gate last year, which led to his WR34 finish in fantasy points per game, but I think we need to focus more on how he ended the season. After Week 13, he turned up the heat, closing the season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 28.7% target share, 83.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and 0.133 first downs per route run. That scorching hot conclusion to last year also coincided with his move back to the slot more (36.1% vs. 44%). Godwin should be the team’s starting slot this year, which will benefit him. Dan Quinn likely utilizes single-high at a high rate this year after encompassing 64.9% and 57.1% of his defensive snaps over the last two years with Dallas. Last year in Weeks 14-18, against single high, Godwin led the team with 2.45 YPRR and 0.125 FD/RR and was second behind only Mike Evans in target share (19.1%) and first-read share (21.1%). Godwin will match up with rookie Mike Sainristill for most of Week 1. The floor and ceiling are high for Godwin to open this season.

Luke McCaffrey (WR)

Well, well, well. Look at that. McCaffrey is now projected to be a starter in two wide receiver sets for Washington. McCaffrey has been a crush of mine since I watched him at the Senior Bowl in Mobile (shout out to Jim Nagy). McCaffrey could hit the ground running in Week 1 against a team that utilized zone coverage on 73.9% of their defensive snaps last year. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. If McCaffrey is lining up on the perimeter for most of the game, he’ll see Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) in coverage. McCaffrey is a fine deep-league flex.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

I wasn’t high on McMillan as a prospect, but he played well in the preseason. He has a glorious matchup in Week 1. This preseason, he had a 37.5% TPRR while ranking 13th in receiving grade and 11th in YPRR. The entire Washington secondary was in shambles last year, and it doesn’t look much better entering Week 1. McMillan will see Benjamin St. Juste (68% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (65.5% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day. Washington allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Austin Ekeler (RB)

This isn’t a matchup to consider sneaking Ekeler into your flex. Even if we want to excuse Ekeler’s 2023 performance, this is a brutal matchup on the ground and through the air for backs. Last year among 49 qualifying backs, Ekeler ranked 38th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game while giving up the fifth-lowest missed tackles per attempt and the seventh-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Daniels isn’t likely to check down much, as he will more likely take off running when his options downfield are covered. We should look to Ekeler’s pass game involvement if on limited target volume when the matchup dictates that his efficiency with that work could see a matchup bump. That isn’t the case here. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-lowest yards per reception and the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to backs. Sit Ekeler.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton was a weekly streaming possibility last year as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. He managed four TE1 performances last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 27th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 46th in YPRR. Sadly, this isn’t a week to consider Otton for your starting lineups. Last year, Washington was tough against tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

• Watch Live on Fubo (Save $30)
• DET -4.5, O/U 52.5
• Rams vs. Lions Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Rams were not an impressive pace and passing rate team last year, ranking 22nd in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
• Despite being one of the best offenses in the NFL, Detroit was a similar story last year. They were 17th in neutral pace and 22nd in neutral passing rate.

Rams Players & Positional Rankings

Lions Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Kyren Williams
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Puka Nacua
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Goff was the QB11 in fantasy last year, ranking 10th in yards per attempt, 13th in CPOE, fifth in passing yards per game, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate. Another year of solid fantasy production as a late-round draft pick. Goff also flashed some ceiling with five weeks as the QB6 or higher in fantasy scoring. He faces his former team, which was tough against quarterbacks last year. The Rams held passers to the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, the 10th-lowest CPOE, and the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate last year. They don’t have Aaron Donald this season and have had some turnover at cornerback, so we’ll see if they can continue to stifle passing like they did last year. This is best viewed as a neutral matchup with a high total that Goff can likely take advantage of.

David Montgomery (RB)

Montgomery’s first year as a Lion was a successful one. He was the RB15 in fantasy points per game and averaged 15 touches and 75.7 total yards after returning from injury in Week 10. Among 49 qualifying backs last year, Montgomery was 14th in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He’ll be the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs‘ lightning. Montgomery should find running room this week against an average Rams’ run defense. Last year, Los Angeles ranked 15th in stuff rate, 16th in missed tackles allowed per attempt, and 17th in yards per carry allowed to zone runs (Montgomery 55.7% zone). Montgomery is an RB2/3.

Jameson Williams (WR)

We’ll see if Jameson Williams can evolve into a high-end target earner, but last year’s metrics don’t point to that happening. Among 93 qualifying receivers last season, Williams was 62nd in target per route run rate, 55th in yards per route run, and 70th in first downs per route run. Last year, he only managed to surpass 60% of the snaps in four games, with only three games of at least six or more targets. He operated as a field stretcher, which could come in handy against the Rams. Last year, he was ninth in aDOT and now faces a Rams pass defense that allowed the third-most deep passing touchdowns and the fifth-most deep passing yards last year. Williams will see Cobie Durant (65.2% catch rate and 101.1 passer rating) and Tre’Davious White (60% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the game.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Which version of Kupp do we get this year? That has been a heated offseason debate. Did he clearly take a step back, or did injuries nag at him all year, affecting his performance? Last year, he dealt with an ankle sprain and hamstring issues. In 12 games with him and Puka Nacua active, Kupp still commanded a 23.4% target share, produced 2.08 yards per route run, and was the WR23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Kupp led the team with a 27.4% target share and a 33.3% first-read share. He was second to only Puka Nacua in YPRR (2.47) and FD/RR (0.107). Kupp will run about 61% of his routes against Amik Robertson (62.5% catch rate and 85.7 passer rating). Kupp could lead the way for the passing attack in Week 1.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Demarcus Robinson (WR)

Robinson was on fire to close last season. In Weeks 13-18, he went on a tear ranking (among 109 qualifying receivers), 36th in YPRR, 28th in FD/RR, and 26th in fantasy points per route run. In those six weeks, Robinson was the WR31 in fantasy points per game. This isn’t the game to look to flex him, though. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, over the final six games of last year, Robinson had a 16.1% target share, 1.58 YPRR, a 16.1% first-read share, and 0.089 FD/RR. Robinson was the distant third option against single-high. Kupp and Nacua will lead the way and soak up a ton of volume. Robinson will run about 76% of his routes against Carlton Davis (63.3% catch rate and 102.5 passer rating) and rookie Terrion Arnold.

New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Watch Live on Fubo (Save $30)
• SF -4.5, O/U 43.5
• Jets vs. 49ers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• During the last full season, we saw Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett together (2021); the offense was dead last in neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral passing rate. I expect a slow, pass-happy offense again this year.
• Last year, the 49ers had the fifth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 22nd in neutral passing rate.

Jets Players & Positional Rankings

49ers Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Breece Hall
• Garrett Wilson
• Christian McCaffrey
• George Kittle

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Brock Purdy (QB)

Purdy was amazing last year, no matter what metric you look at. He was the QB6 in fantasy points per game and first in fantasy points per dropback. Purdy was also sixth in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, third in CPOE, and 11th in adjusted completion rate. While he could easily turn in a QB1 outing in Week 1, if you have other options to consider in the same low-end QB1 area code, I would seriously consider starting them. The Jets were the wrecker of quarterbacks’ dreams last year, allowing the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the fewest fantasy points per game, and the second-lowest CPOE. This looks like a game where the 49ers could lean on Christian McCaffrey.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR)

The ink barely dried on Aiyuk’s contract as he made it back just in time for Week 1. Aiyuk was amazing last year as the WR16 in fantasy, ranking third in YPRR and second in FD/RR. His talent and efficiency allowed him to outkick his volume constraints. Aiyuk ranked 30th in raw target volume with an astounding 105 targets. He was also only 44th in red zone targets and was the WR31 in expected fantasy points per game. It didn’t matter though. As good as he is, this doesn’t set up as an Aiyuk smash week. The Jets ranked 11th in two high usage last year (51.7%). Two high defenses usually mean a heaping dose of Deebo Samuel. Last year against two-high, Aiyuk had an 18% target share, a 35.3% air-yard share, 2.58 YPRR, and a 25% first-read share. Aiyuk will still be involved, but this isn’t a game where he’ll be leading the way. Aiyuk will run about 75% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (56.9% catch rate and 76.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (61.4% catch rate and 85.1 passer rating).

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Samuel was his usual unstoppable self last year as the WR12 in fantasy points per game. He had a truckload of high leverage usage ranking 14th in red zone targets and finishing with 12 total touchdowns (fourth-most). He was also 14th in YPRR and 30th in FD/RR. Samuel should lead the 49ers offensive onslaught in Week 1. The Jets ranked 11th in two high usage last year (51.7%). Against two high last year, Samuel had a 26.3% target share, 3.23 YPRR, a 36% first-read share, and 0.123 FD/RR. Samuel will run about 60% of his routes against Sauce Gardner (56.9% catch rate and 76.5 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (61.4% catch rate and 85.1 passer rating).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

The last time we saw Rodgers play a full season, he was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, ranking 26th in yards per attempt and 23rd in fantasy points per dropback. His deeper accuracy metrics paint the picture of a quarterback that is far from washed, though, as he was also 11th in CPOE and third in hero throw rate. The 49ers are a tough opening match. Their pass defense allowed the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, the eighth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks last season. Rodgers is a decent QB2, but if you’re playing matchups, there are plenty of QB2s that have better ones in Week 1.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Conklin was the TE21 in fantasy points per game last year. He lived in the TE2 efficiency market, too, ranking 18th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, and 21st in YPRR. There will be weeks to consider streaming Conklin with Rodgers under center, but this isn’t one of them. Last year, the 49ers allowed the seventh-lowest yards per reception, the 12th-lowest catch rate, and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

• Watch Live on Fubo (Save $30)
• KC -3, O/U 46.5
• Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Ravens were sprinting to close last season, which could surprise some. In Weeks 12-18, Baltimore was leading the NFL in neutral pace while ranking 15th in passing rate in close games.
• Over their final seven games of the season, Kansas City was unsurprisingly 10th in neutral pace, third in neutral passing rate, and fifth in red zone passing rate.

Ravens Players & Positional Rankings

Chiefs Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Lamar Jackson
• Patrick Mahomes
• Derrick Henry
• Mark Andrews
• Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Isiah Pacheco (RB)

The Chiefs saw all they needed to last year with Pacheco as their workhorse back, so they let Jerick McKinnon walk in the offseason, which should fuel Pacheco as a weekly 65-70% snap player. In the four games he played without McKinnon active, Pachecho averaged 20.2 touches and 100.7 total yards. He was Kansas City’s workhorse, as he played at least 70% of the snaps in three of those four games. Overall, last year, he ranked 12th in explosive run rate and 26th in yards after contact per attempt. Among 48 qualifying backs, he also ranked 28th in yards per route run. At first glance, Baltimore looks like a defense to avoid for fantasy rushers, but there’s a lot to like here for Pacheco. While the Ravens held backs to the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game that was mostly fueled by allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL. Deeper metrics scream they are a more advantageous matchup, as they allowed the 13th-highest explosive run rate and the eighth-highest missed tackles per attempt. Start Pacheco as an RB1/2.

Zay Flowers (WR)

There will be plenty of matchups to be bullish regarding Flowers’ outlook, but this isn’t one of them. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Flowers scorched single-high last season, but his numbers against two-high were pedestrian. Against this coverage type, he only garnered a 19.6% target share and a 20.2% air-yard share while producing 1.12 yards per route run with Mark Andrews in the lineup. Look for Andrews to lead the way this week as he dominates two-high matchups for Baltimore. Flowers will run about 69% of his routes against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating). It’s also possible Flowers draws shadow coverage from McDuffie.

Xavier Worthy (WR)

With Hollywood Brown sidelined Worthy should be a full-time player immediately in Week 1. When he was on the field in the preseason, the Chiefs looked to get him involved immediately as he logged a 31.5% target per route run rate while producing 3.26 yards per route run. Worthy could immediately explode in his first NFL game, but he has a tough task in front of him. Last year, Baltimore allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. They were also particularly stingy to deep passing. Worthy had a 17.0 aDOT in the preseason, but it was such a small sample that we can’t rush to pigeonhole him into just a field stretching role in this offense. If that is his role to start the season, though, he could find tough sledding this week against a defense that allowed the second-lowest adjusted completion rate and passer rating to deep passing. Worthy lined up in the slot on 52.6% of his preseason routes. If that holds, he will see Kyle Hamilton for most of the day (last year, he allowed only a 55.7% catch rate and 59.5 passer rating in slot coverage).

Rashee Rice (WR)

Rice looks to pick up where he left off last season. In Weeks 12-17, after assuming a full-time role, he gobbled up a 25.2% target share with a 30.3% first-read share, producing 2.77 yards per route run and 18.6 fantasy points per game. This preseason, his rapport with Patrick Mahomes remained strong, with a 35.2% target per route run rate and 2.06 yards per route run. Rice should be featured heavily in this opening game against the Ravens’ two-high defense. In 2023, Baltimore deployed two-high on 53.3% (eighth-highest) of their defensive snaps. Yes, they switched from Mike Macdonald to Zach Orr as defensive coordinator, but Orr has been a long-time Baltimore defensive coach (linebackers). I expect him to integrate his wrinkles into the scheme, but I’m projecting them to still use two-high coverage with more than 50% of their defensive snaps. After Week 11 last season, Rice led the team with a 21.4% target share, 2.78 yards per route run, and a 28.6% first-read share (tied with Travis Kelce) against two-high. If Mahomes isn’t looking for Kelce when he drops back, it’ll be Rice.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Justice Hill (RB)

Hill is an interesting deep league/desperation flex play for Week 1. While Derrick Henry will shoulder much of the backfield load for 2024, we are still unsure how much Hill will play. Hill could be passing down back or seeing the field more when the team is trailing. We just don’t know. While the spread is tight and doesn’t foreshadow Baltimore getting buried in this game, the matchup is too juicy to disregard Hill this week totally. Hill proved capable of ripping off chunk plays last year, ranking 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in explosive run rate. 52.4% of his runs were on zone plays, where he had the third-highest yards per carry on zone runs (5.8). The Chiefs allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt last year. Even if Hill only gets a handful of touches in this game, it only takes one big play for him to pay off.

Rashod Bateman (WR)

Bateman is the sneaky flex play in this game. Last year, his overall numbers weren’t great, but he was extremely effective against two-high coverage. Last year, the Chiefs utilized two-high at the highest rate in the NFL (67.8%). Against two-high, Bateman had an 18% target per route run rate, which was only a small tick behind Flowers (19%), but Bateman produced 1.82 yards per route run while also ranking second on the team against two-high with 0.34 fantasy points per route run. With a strong total and a close (ish) spread, there will be scoring in this game, and if Baltimore can keep up their end of that bargain, Bateman should be part of the scoring onslaught. He will run most of his routes on the boundary against Trent McDuffie (63.3% catch rate and 95.5 passer rating) and Joshua Williams (41.1% catch rate and 74.4 passer rating).

Isaiah Likely (TE)

In Weeks 12-18, Likely was third on the team in target share (14%) and yards per route run (1.52) against two-high. With Andrews back in the fold, Likely will still be involved, but he probably won’t be a top-three option in the passing attack in Week 1. Park Likely on the bench this week against a defense that allowed the ninth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends last year.

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, ESPN analytics, The Edge from the 33rd Team, FTN, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*