Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -4, O/U 41.5
• Panthers vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year with Tampa Bay, Dave Canales coordinated an offense that ranked 17th in neutral pace and 10th in neutral passing rate.
• The last time Klint Kubiak directed an NFL offense (2021), his squad ranked fifth in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Panthers Players & Positional Rankings

Saints Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Alvin Kamara (RB)
With Kendre Miller unable to stay healthy currently, Kamara’s every down role looks safe for now. Last season, Kamara was tenth in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. His usage wasn’t the problem, as it carried him to an RB3 finish in fantasy points per game. His early-down efficiency was a worry. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. Volume will have to carry Kamara in 2024, but without a sizable contender for the workload right now he shouldn’t have to worry. Carolina offers a juicy matchup for him to exploit in Week 1. Last year, they had the sixth-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 10th-most rushing yards per game.

Chris Olave (WR)

Olave might not have matched the hype last year with his production, but that doesn’t mean that he had a bad season. Olave was the WR19 with new career highs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points per game. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, Olave ranked 24th in YPRR and 16th in FD/RR. The change in the offensive system will help Olave and Carr this season. Carr last year was tied to two outcomes. It was either wind up and chuck it deep or check it down, as Carr ranked eighth in deep attempts while also having the sixth-highest check-down rate. In Weeks 1-12, New Orleans had the fifth-highest aDOT while ranking 14th in catchable target rate with the 16th-highest off-target rate. In Weeks 13-18, the Saints changed it up as their aDOT was the 11th-lowest, and the offense ranked first in catchable target rate with the lowest off-target rate. Motion, play-action, and more intermediate passing will help Olave this season with Klint Kubiak. Last year Carolina utilized single-high at the third-highest rate (63.3%). Among 85 qualifying wide receivers last year against single high, Olave ranked 10th in YPRR, 12th in fantasy points per route run, and seventh in FD/RR. Olave with line up against Jaycee Horn (60.7% catch rate and 88.2 passer rating) and Mike Jackson (68.8% catch rate and 93.5 passer rating) for most of the game.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

With Jonathon Brooks still recovering from his torn ACL, Hubbard should carry the mail for Carolina until he’s ready. Last year, as the Panthers starting tailback, he was the RB24 in fantasy points per game, he averaged 19.2 touches and 77.7 total yards. Hubbard wasn’t an efficiency maven, though, ranking 30th in explosive run rate, 32nd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 31st in yards after contact per attempt. Last year, with Dave Cannales, the Bucs utilized zone on 46.7% of their snaps. The Panthers should be a zone-heavy team this year after utilizing it on 53% of their rushing plays last year (Hubbard 57.1% zone). The Saints allowed the 10th-highest yards per carry to zone runs last year. Overall, they allowed the 13th-highest missed tackles per attempt and the 10th-highest yards after contact per attempt. Hubbard is flex-worthy in Week 1 and could easily be a strong RB2 when it’s all said and done against the Saints.

Diontae Johnson (WR)

Johnson should be the Panthers’ clear WR1 this season. Last year, once he returned from injury in Week 7, he continued to gobble up targets like usual, ranking 14th in target share (23.7%), sixth in air-yard share (41.6%), and 20th in FD/RR (0.109). In that span, he was the WR33 in fantasy points per game. Last year, New Orleans utilized single-high on 53.9% of their defensive snaps. Among 85 qualifying receivers last season, Johnson ranked 19th in TPRR and 21st in YPRR against single-high. Johnson should line up across from Marshon Lattimore (58.7% catch rate and 77.9 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (56.8% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating) for most of the game. Johnson is a volume-based WR3.

Taysom Hill (TE)

Hill is the ultimate wildcard at tight end. He finished last year as the TE15, but that doesn’t really convey how valuable he was in fantasy. Hill managed seven outings where he was a top-10 fantasy tight end (TE6, TE6, TE3, TE6, TE6, TE10, TE8). He contributed in the passing game and on the ground with 692 total yards from scrimmage with six touchdowns. Hill will play a Swiss army knife role again for New Orleans in 2024. If you need a dice roll any week that could finish with TE1 numbers, Hill is your guy.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Derek Carr (QB)

Carr might not be the sexiest name in fantasy, but he was amazing down the stretch last season. In Weeks 12-18 last year, he was the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t do justice to how good he was. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he was 11th in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns, second in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. He’s not a bad QB2/streaming option this season, but I wouldn’t look to plug him into lineups in Week 1. Carr draws a Carolina pass defense that last year allowed the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Bryce Young (QB)

There are not many players for fantasy that I feel like “I need to see” before I’m willing to put them into a lineup, but Young is one of them. Last year was BAD in every sense of the word. Young was the QB29 in fantasy points per game, with only two QB1 outings for the year. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 44th in yards per attempt, 33rd in CPOE, and 44th in fantasy points per dropback. The Saints are no pushover pass defense, either. Last season, New Orleans allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Even in Superflex, I’m willing to play a wide receiver or running back over Young.

Rashid Shaheed (WR)

Shaheed flashed a big-time upside last year. While he was the WR45 in fantasy points per game last season, he had five weeks of WR2 of better finishes in weekly scoring. Last year, he drew a 13.6% target share and 23.5% air-yard share while ranking 43rd in yards per route run and 45th in receiving yards per game out of 81 qualifying receivers. Shaheed operated as the field stretcher, ranking 10th in aDOT and 15th in deep targets. This isn’t the matchup to likely roll Shaheed out there as a flex option. If he’s the deep shot specialist again, Carolina will make it a point to shut those down with their two high coverage. Last year, the Panthers held passers to the third-fewest deep passing touchdowns and seventh-lowest deep completion rate.

Adam Thielen (WR)

Thielen has to prove in 2024 that he still has something left in the tank before I’m willing to slide him into a fantasy lineup. Last year, after Week 8, he faded badly. In Weeks 9-18, Thielen surpassed 80 receiving yards only once, as he averaged 8.9 fantasy points per game with 1.29 YPRR. Thielen is a sit and not worthy of a roster spot right now in most conventional fantasy leagues.

Juwan Johnson (TE)

Last year, Johnson was the TE18 in fantasy points per game. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he was 19th in target share (13.6%), 30th in YPRR, and 17th in FD/RR. He’ll have plenty of streamable matchups this season, but this isn’t one of them. Overall, Carolina allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fourth-lowest receiving yards to tight ends. The Panthers also held slot tight ends (Johnson, 57.2% slot) to the second-fewest fantasy points. Sit Johnson.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Giants

• MIN -1.5, O/U 41.5
• Vikings vs. Giants Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year without Kirk Cousins, Minnesota ranked 17th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate. With Sam Darnold, we could see similar numbers in 2024.
• In 2022, with Daniel Jones starting, the Giants ranked 13th in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Vikings Players & Positional Rankings

Giants Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Aaron Jones (RB)

When Jones was FINALLY healthy last year, we saw the same back that we have come to love for fantasy over the years. In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards as he was a weekly stud. During that same stretch, among 47 qualifying backs, he was eighth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact per attempt. IF he can stay healthy (I KNOW it’s a big if), he will be awesome in fantasy. The Vikings need another pass catcher to step up opposite Justin Jefferson. No, I don’t think it will be Jordan Addison unless his target earning ability has jumped to another level this year. Jones could soak up routes and check-downs this season. Last year, he was still amazing in the passing game. Among 48 qualifying backs, he was sixth in TPRR, eighth in YPRR, and fourth in FD/RR. Jones should have a day on the ground against a run defense that allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game. The Giants also surrendered the seventh-highest yards per reception to backs last season. Jones could flirt with RB1 numbers this week, but he’s best viewed as a strong RB2.

Devin Singletary (RB)

Singletary should operate as the Giants’ new workhorse back. Last year, he proved yet again that he can carry the mail. In Weeks 9-18, he averaged 19 touches and 86.6 total yards as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. Last year, he was 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Week 1 looks like it could be a slow start to the season for Singletary if Minnesota is as good at defending the run as they were last season. Minnesota held rushers to the lowest explosive run rate with the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game allowed. Singletary is a volume-based RB2/3.

Malik Nabers (WR)

We can all debate the target quality that Nabers will receive this season, but we can all agree that he is about TO GET FED on a weekly basis. We got a small snippet of it this preseason, as he had a 24% TPRR and 2.16 YPRR. I’m worried about Daniel Jones just as much as anyone else, but let’s be kind and rewind and remind ourselves of the type of talent that Nabers has. During his final year at LSU, Nabers ranked third in YPRR, first in PFF receiving grade, and fourth in missed tackles forced. Nabers will have his hands full with Minnesota’s upgraded outside corner tandem, though. He’ll see Stephon Gilmore (56.8% catch rate and 90.4 passer rating) and Shaquill Griffin (63.8% catch rate and 82.5 passer rating) for most of the game.

Jordan Addison (WR)

Addison rode high last year because of touchdown luck. Yep, I said it. The rest of his target earning metrics were not close to the consensus perception because of his WR30 finish last year. Addison had the fourth-most receiving touchdowns last year behind only Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb. That’s not recurring this year. Here’s the gallon of cold water for the Addison hive. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 46th in target share, 59th in targets per route run, 51st in yards per route run, and 58th in first downs per route run. What stat there gives hope that he will be more than a WR4 this season if touchdown regression hits? None. New Giants’ defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, utilized two high at the seventh-highest rate last year (53.6%) with Tennessee. Against two-high last year, Addison’s numbers are surprisingly strong with a 22% TPRR and 2.06 YPRR. Addison will run most of his routes against Nick McCloud (68.2% catch rate and 83.9 passer rating) and Deonte Banks (57.6% catch rate and 84.7 passer rating). Addison is a decent flex this week.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Once Robinson was a full-time player again in the Giants’ offense, he was the WR55 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 17% target share with 1.37 YPRR and a 21.2% first-read share. He managed five weeks as a WR3 or better in weekly scoring. Minnesota had the sixth-highest rate of two-high last year (55.5%). In those 14 games, Robinson was integrated back into the offense against two high; he had a 16.1% target share, 1.12 YPRR, and a 22.4% first-read share (led the team). The Giants looked to him first against this coverage type. He won’t be the first-line weapon this year with Nabers in town, but I do expect him to be involved heavily. The matchup in the slot against Byron Murphy (in slot coverage last year: 68.9% catch rate and 124.1 passer rating) is also a nice one. If you are struggling in a DEEP league, Robinson is a flex worthy. Last year, Minny allowed the 11th-most receiving yards and the 11th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Sam Darnold (QB)

I can’t believe I’m about to type this, but the last time we saw Darnold under center, he wasn’t terrible. Among 41 qualifying quarterbacks in 2022, he ranked second in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. Those are the good marks. He also had the 11th-lowest highly accurate throw rate and the 14th-lowest adjusted completion rate. The Kevin O’Connell effect could be kind to him this year. The Giants are a decent test in Week 1. Last year, New York ranked 15th in yards per attempt allowed while also holding passers to the eighth-lowest CPOE, the 10th-lowest adjusted completion rate, and the 14th-fewest fantasy points per game. Darnold is a middling QB2.

Daniel Jones (QB)

Wow. Just wow. Jones was absolutely abysmal last year. In Weeks 1-4, he was the QB26 in fantasy points per game. At times, he honestly looked like he forgot how to play football. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks last year, he was 43rd in yards per attempt, 30th in CPOE, and 43rd in fantasy points per dropback. Jones faces a favorable secondary in Week 1 that he can possibly exploit if he can keep his composure. Last year, Minnesota allowed the fourth-highest CPOE and the 10th-highest passing yards per game while ranking 16th in yards per attempt given up. Jones could wilt under the blitz pressure that Brian Flores is likely to bring, though. Last year, Minnesota ranked first in blitz rate as Flores brought the heat on a whopping 51.5% of their defensive snaps. Jones is a viable low-end QB2 option, but I’ll likely try to find another option if possible.

Jalin Hyatt (WR)

Hyatt’s not on the deep league flex radar this week. Minnesota had the sixth-highest rate of two-high last year (55.5%). Last season against two-high, Hyatt had an 8% TPRR and a woeful 0.81 YPRR. That’s not good, Bob. Even if we take that out of the equation, I don’t know if Jones will have time in the pocket to fire it deep to Hyatt. Hyatt led all receivers with a 21.0 aDOT last season.

Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -6, O/U 41.5
• Broncos vs. Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year, Denver had the seventh-slowest neutral pace while ranking 19th in neutral passing rate.
• Ryan Grubb brings an offensive system to Seattle that ranked 12th in pass attempts and ninth in passing rate last year in college.

Broncos Players & Positional Rankings

Seahawks Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Geno Smith (QB)

Smith’s stats sagged last year as he worked behind a patchwork and injured offensive line. Smith was the QB20 in fantasy points per game while ranking 15th in yards per attempt and 18th in CPOE. It was a different story when he had clean pockets. Too bad he faced the seventh-highest pressure rate and rarely saw them. When he did have a clean pocket, he ranked eighth in yards per attempt, second in hero throw rate, and fifth in passing grade. Denver had the fourth-lowest pressure rate last year. Chef Geno should cook in Week 1. Last year, Denver allowed the seventh-highest yards per attempt, the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the fifth-most passing touchdowns. If you’re looking for a streamer or deciding between QB2s in Superflex, Smith should be at the top of the list.

Javonte Williams (RB)

The offseason reports for Williams have been encouraging. I’m hoping for a bounceback season for Wiliams this year. Last year, he rolled up the volume (264 touches), but his efficiency was severely lacking. Among 49 qualifying backs last season, he ranked 41st in missed tackles forced per attempt and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. Williams also was 55th in fantasy points per opportunity and 53rd in yards per touch. Seattle offers a chance for Williams to get off to a wonderful start. The Seahawks were among the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, allowing the second-highest rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. Williams is an RB2/3 who could outperform his ranking in Week 1.

Jaleel McLaughlin (RB)

King Jaleel is READY TO BE UNLEASHED! I’ve been talking about the Broncos passing down back since January. I can’t wait to see him crush in this role in Sean Payton’s offense. Last year, he was a magician on a per-touch basis, ranking 14th in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and fourth in yards per route run. Payton has been as consistent as they come with featuring his back in the passing game. This will continue in 2024. Over the last nine seasons, Payton has coordinated an NFL offense; he has never finished lower than fourth in targets to the running back position. The Seahawks were among the worst run defenses in the NFL last year, allowing the second-highest rushing yards per game, the third-highest explosive run rate, and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt. They also allowed the 10th-highest yards per reception and the ninth-most receiving yards to backs. McLaughlin is flex-worthy in Week 1 (especially in PPR leagues).

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Walker soldered on through a bunch of injuries last year to still finish as a rock-solid RB2 (RB20). He dealt with a bruised shoulder, a strained oblique, a chest issue, and a tender calf last season. In the 14 games he played at least 41% of the snaps, he averaged 17.3 touches and 82 total yards. Among 49 qualifying backs last year, Walker was 21st in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt. He should have no issues carving up the Broncos run defense that allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-most missed tackles per attempt last season.

DK Metcalf (WR)

Metcalf has proven at this point that his floor is as a safe WR2. Last year, he finished another successful campaign as the WR22 in fantasy. He was 22nd in YPRR, 23rd in first read share, and 20th in FD/RR last season. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Metcalf ate last year against single-high with a 26.1% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, 2.71 YPRR, and 12 end zone targets. We don’t know if Ryan Grubb will deploy Seattle’s wide receivers in a similar fashion, but Metcalf has a compelling case to keep his number-one role against single-high. Metcalf could be shadowed by Patrick Surtain (62.9% catch rate and 93.9 passer rating) in this game. Surtain followed eight receivers last year on at least 63% of their routes, with only Tyreek Hill and D.J. Moore surpassing 70 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If Metcalf isn’t shadowed, he’ll see Surtain and Riley Moss (only one target defended last year) for most of the game.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)

My disdain for Shane Waldron’s usage of Smith-Njigba last year has been well-documented. No big deal. All he did was take a baller, a first-round pick, and turn him into Malachi Corley. He neutered him into a low aDOT screen merchant. Smith-Njigba was seventh in screen targets last season, with 52.3% of his target volume coming via screens. This is not the way. Ryan Grubb will change this. In the small sample, we got with Smith-Njigba as a perimeter wide receiver, he was very good. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers last season, when he was running routes on the perimeter, Smith-Njigba ranked 15th in YPRR and fourth in TPRR. Among 61 qualifying receivers with at least 40 perimeter targets, he also ranked 14th in FD/RR. Smith-Njigba did run 89.5% of his routes in the preseason from the slot, so I do still project him to be the team’s slot with more perimeter time this season possible. Smith-Njigba could be leaned on this week if Metcalf draws shadow coverage from Surtain. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year against single-high, when Smith-Njigba was aligned outside against single-high, he posted a 28% TPRR and 1.97 YPRR, so there is some proof in the pudding that he can excel against single-high. Smith-Njigba should run circles around Ja’Quan McMillian (61.2% catch rate and 109.4 passer rating) from the slot in Week 1.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Sutton will be the clear WR1 for the Broncos passing offense this year. Last year, he was the WR38 in fantasy points per game, which was largely fueled by touchdowns. Sutton had the 12th-most red zone targets, which he turned into the 10th-most total touchdowns among receivers. Outside of touchdowns, though, Sutton was very pedestrian. He was 39th in target share, 37th in yards per route run, 44th in receiving yards per game, and 38th in first downs per route run. With Mike Macdonald calling the defensive shots this season, I expect Seattle to move towards more two-high this season. Seattle, over the last two seasons, has featured this coverage with 44.4-44.7% of their defensive snaps. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). The year prior, that mark was 50.2% for Baltimore. Last year, Sutton’s numbers weren’t great against two high with a 19% TPRR, 1.57 YPRR, and only 0.072 FD/RR. Sit Sutton if you can in Week 1. He’ll see Tre Brown (63.8% catch rate and 94.1 passer rating) and Riq Woolen (62.1% catch rate and 81.1 passer rating) for most of the day.

Tyler Lockett (WR)

Lockett continued his downward trend last year. His YPRR has dropped in each of the last three seasons, with last year’s mark being his lowest since 2017. Last year, he managed a WR37 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 40th in receiving yards per game and 36th in first downs per route run. Last year, Denver ranked 11th in single-high usage (55.8%). Last year, against single-high, Lockett had a 20.7% target share, 1.67 YPRR, a 25% first-read share, and 0.086 FD/RR. Lockett could remain the second option against single high this year behind Metcalf, but my money is on Smith-Njigba taking over that role. He practiced on a limited basis all week before getting upgraded to full on walkthrough Friday.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Bo Nix (QB)

During his final collegiate season, Nix was the on-paper model of efficiency, ranking top five in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, and yards per attempt. He was similarly efficient in the preseason. Among 53 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fifth in passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. Nix is a fine QB2 this week, facing a pass defense that kept quarterbacks in check last year, allowing the 11th-lowest CPOE, the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns, and sitting at 15th in fantasy points per game.

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR)

Mims was a rookie season flop. He finished as the WR91 in fantasy points per game, eclipsing a 50% snap rate only twice. His per-route numbers weren’t great either, as he had a 14% TPRR, 1.50 YPRR, and 0.038 FD/RR. Baltimore utilized two high on 53.4% of their snaps last year (eighth-highest). With Mike MacDonald in Seattle now, I expect similar coverage usage this season. Against two high, Mims per route numbers were even worse with a 12% TPRR, 1,50 YPRR, and 0.034 FD/RR. Add on that Seattle allowed the third-fewest receiving touchdowns to slots last year while ranking 18th in PPR points per target, and Mims is a must-sit.

Noah Fant (TE)

Last year, Fant was locked into a tight-end committee situation, but he should be the primary tight end this season. Last year, Fant was the TE36 in fantasy points per game with a 14% TPRR, 1.38 YPRR, and 0.054 FD/RR. None of those metrics scream STREAM ME IN WEEK 1, but the matchup is pretty good as Denver bled out production to tight ends last year, allowing the seventh-highest yards per reception and the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Fant is a low-end streaming option in deep leagues this week.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -3, O/U 39.5
• Raiders vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year, the Raiders were 20th in neutral pace while sitting at 13th in neutral passing rate. Yes, a lot of changeover with the coaching staff during the season, but the point here is this team will likely slow down more and run the ball even more in 2024. Last year, Luke Getsy coordinated an offense that had the second-slowest neutral pace and the third-highest neutral rushing rate. While yes, this was a Justin Fields-led offense for the Bears, we know that the Raiders don’t have a wonderful quarterback room, and Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball. These numbers might not be far off from where Las Vegas finishes the season.
• We know what Greg Roman wants to do: run the ball and play slow. In 2022, the last year we saw Roman coordinate an NFL offense, Baltimore had the second-slowest neutral pace and the fifth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Raiders Players & Positional Rankings

Chargers Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Zamir White (RB)

White enters this year as the Raiders’ workhorse back after proving he can carry the mail down the stretch last year. In Weeks 15-18, he averaged 23.3 touches and 114.3 total yards as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. During this cup of coffee as the team’s starter, among 41 qualifying backs, he ranked 13th in explosive run rate, sixth in yards after contact per attempt and 17th in success rate. Last year, the Bolts, overall, had a strong run defense, holding backs to the ninth-lowest explosive run rate with the seventh-lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. Los Angeles was susceptible to zone runs, though, allowing the ninth-highest yards per carry and the 13th-highest success rate. 53.6% of White’s runs as the starter last year were on zone plays. White is a volume-based RB2.

Davante Adams (WR)

Adams remains one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but pitiful quarterback play hurt him last year, and it’s not looking any prettier for 2024. Last year was the first season since 2015 that Davante Adams didn’t finish as a WR1 in fantasy. Adams checked in as the WR15 in fantasy. Adams had no issue soaking up elite-level volume, ranking second in raw target volume (175) and target share (33.1%). He did the best he could, considering the situation surrounding him, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 17th in first downs per route run. Adams will run most of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (64.7% catch rate and 98.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (72.5% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating).

Brock Bowers (TE)

Brock Bowers enters the NFL as one of the best tight-end prospects of recent memory. Across his three collegiate seasons, he never finished lower than sixth in receiving grade or yards per route run (per PFF). We’ll see what his route share is out the gate with Michael Mayer still here. Bowers should compete with Jakobi Meyers for the second spot in the target pecking order this season. Bowers could return TE1 numbers immediately, but I’m a little more skeptical than many others. The matchup is okay but not amazing. Last year, the Bolts ranked 19th in fantasy points per game and 14th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

Justin Herbert (QB)

We’ve speculated all offseason, but now we finally get to see how much a Greg Roman offense will impact Herbert’s fantasy outlook. He’s coming off another solid fantasy season as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Herbert’s underlying accuracy metrics last year are concerning even if we take the passing volume concerns out of the equation. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he ranked 26th in yards per attempt, 22nd in CPOE, and 23rd in adjusted completion rate. Despite these concerns, Herbert should return decent QB2 numbers in Week 1. After Antonio Pierce took over last year, his pass defense allowed the 14th-highest yards per attempt, the eighth-highest CPOE, and the third-highest adjusted completion rate.

Joshua Palmer (WR)

Palmer took his game to another level last year with Mike Williams out. In those contests, he garnered an 18.9% target share with a 31.4% air-yard share, producing 2.19 yards per route run and 71.1 receiving yards per game. It’s not inconceivable that he is the Chargers WR1 this season with his rapport with Herbert. Last year, after Antonio Pierce took over as the Raiders head coach, they deployed single high coverage on 55.4% of their snaps. Against single-high last year, Palmer had a 21% TPRR, 2.22 YPRR, and 0.083 FD/RR. He should lead the way through the air against Las Vegas. Palmer will tangle with Jack Jones (60.6% catch rate and 68.1 passer rating) and Jakorian Bennett (65.6% catch rate and 102.3 passer rating) all day. Palmer is a strong flex play for Week 1.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Gardner Minshew II (QB)

After taking over as the Colts starting quarterback last season, Minshew was the QB26 in fantasy points per game. He was pedestrian in every metric I care about regarding quarterback play. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 31st in fantasy points per dropback, and 37th in catchable target rate. The on-paper matchup looks tasty, but take it with a grain of salt with a new coaching staff in place and some new personnel in the secondary. Last year, the Chargers allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and the seventh-highest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Minshew, at best, is a mid-QB2.

Gus Edwards (RB)

Edwards enters the 2024 season as the favorite for work in this Bolts’ backfield, but he isn’t a tough player to hop in the pecking order if J.K. Dobbins can prove he is back or Kimani Vidal outplays both of them. Last season, Edwards was the RB32 in fantasy, with the strength of 13 total touchdowns (fourth-most). Edwards is an early down grinder who only managed a 2.8% target share last season, so all of his value will have to come via rushing. Among 49 qualifying backs, Edwards ranked 25th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 32nd in yards after contact per attempt. The Raiders tightened up as a run defense after Antonio Pierce became the head coach last year, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game and the third-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt. Edwards is a touchdown-dependent flex.

J.K. Dobbins (RB)

The offseason talk around Dobbins has been positive. Unfortunately, he didn’t play in the preseason, so it’s all speculation right now regarding what he can bring to the table and his role this season. I would be shocked if he was given 15 or more carries out the gate. Last year, in Week 1, Dobbins tore his Achilles. I expect the Chargers to ease him in. Considering that and a tough rushing matchup, Dobbins is better off staying on your bench this week. The Raiders tightened up as a run defense after Antonio Pierce became the head coach last year, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game and the third-lowest explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

No, that’s not a typo. Meyers was the WR24 in fantasy points per game last year. Yes, much of that was fueled by the fifth-most touchdowns among wide receivers, but it’s not like Meyers is a slouch. He commanded a 19.9% target share with a 25.9% air-yard share while ranking 29th in FD/RR. Meyers is a low-end flex who will run about 71% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (64.7% catch rate and 98.0 passer rating) and Kristian Fulton (72.5% catch rate and 129.3 passer rating).

Ladd McConkey (WR)

McConkey is slated to be the team’s starting slot receiver. He has the talent to be the team’s WR1 this season, but it’s still questionable if he will play in two wide receiver sets and how much the Chargers will utilize 11 personnel. I could easily see McConkey being this year’s Jayden Reed. A player that has his playing time capped because of the offense that he is in has to rely on touchdown run out and efficiency to hit in his rookie season. McConkey has the raw talent to do it. Last year at Georgia, McConkey was in the 98th percentile in receiving grade and receiving grade versus single coverage. He was also in the 91st percentile or higher in separation percentage and YPRR. He’s a dicey flex for Week 1. McConkey will line up against Nate Hobbs (76.8% catch rate and 103.1 passer rating) for most of the game. After Antonio Pierce took over as the head coach, the Raiders allowed the 11th-fewest receiving touchdowns and the 14th-fewest receiving yards to slot receivers.