The Primer: Week 1 Edition (2024 Fantasy Football)

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

• HOU -3, O/U 49
• Texans vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Weeks 1-5 last year with Anthony Richardson in and out of the lineup, the Colts led the NFL in neutral pace while ranking 27th in neutral passing rate.
• To close last season (Weeks 11-18), Houston ranked eighth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate.

Texans Players & Positional Rankings

Colts Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• C.J. Stroud
• Anthony Richardson
• Jonathan Taylor

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Joe Mixon (RB)

Last year, Mixon was the RB11 in fantasy, ranking eighth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 37th in yards after contact per attempt, and 10th in zone run success rate. Mixon was also 20th in target share and 26th in YPRR among 48 qualifying backs last season. Mixon should see a bump to his zone rushing rate this season. Last year, Cincy utilized zone for 39.2% of their rushing plays versus Houston’s 45.9% rate. The bump in zone rushing won’t help him this week against Indy. Last year, Indy allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game with the ninth-lowest stuff rate, but gap runs gashed them. They held fast against zone with the seventh-lowest success rate and yards per carry allowed. Mixon, with his every-down workload, should be able to take advantage of their weakness against receiving backs, though. Indy allowed the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to backs last year. Anyway, you slice it, Mixon is a strong volume play in Week 1.

Nico Collins (WR)

Collins was nothing short of amazing last season as the WR7 in fantasy. He was basically Brandon Aiyuk of the AFC South, as he operated with an insane per-route efficiency. He was 12th in TPRR, second in YPRR, seventh in receiving yards per game, and fifth in FD/RR. When the offense was battered, and other skill players were out with injuries, he was able to command alpha-level volume. Collins could have a boom game out the gate for Houston, considering Indy’s love for single-high last year. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Among Houston’s starting trio of wide receivers, against single-high, Collins led the group in TPRR (31%), YPRR (3.83), and FD/RR (0.175). It wasn’t particularly close in YPRR and FD/RR either. Collins will run about 79% of his routes against JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating).

Stefon Diggs (WR)

How good will Diggs be in Houston? Another year older. Now, he is competing with two amazing young wide receivers for volume. Can he keep up? We’re about to get these questions answered. His falloff in the second half of the last two seasons can’t be ignored at this point. In Weeks 10-18 last year, Diggs finished as the WR45 or higher in weekly scoring only twice. During that stretch, he only had one game with more than 80 receiving yards while finishing as the WR52 in fantasy points per game. Ok, let’s get to this Week 1 matchup with the Colts. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Diggs had a 30% TPRR, 2.16 YPRR, and 0.103 FD/RR. In those three categories versus Collins and Dell, Diggs ranks second, third, and third. While he might post a solid stat line in Week 1 because all of those marks are still quite strong, it could be Collins and Dell leading the way. Diggs will see JuJu Brents (66.7% catch rate and 109.1 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (54.4% catch rate and 106.6 passer rating) in coverage most of the game.

Tank Dell (WR)

Dell was amazing last year and impactful once inserted into the starting lineup full-time. Last year, in the seven full games that Dell and Nico Collins played together, Dell bested him in every meaningful category. Dell led the duo in target share (22.5 vs. 22.1%), air-yard share (35.9 vs. 25.3%), weighted opportunity (59.0 vs. 50.9), and fantasy points per game (18.7 vs. 18.1). Overall last year Dell posted monster numbers in YPRR (2.40) and FD/RR (0.115) ranking 16th and 14th in these statistics. He should push Collins for the team lead in targets in Week 1 against Indy. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Dell had a 29% TPRR, 2.70 YPRR, and 0.122 FD/RR. Among Houston’s starting wide receivers, he ranks third, second, and second in those categories. The biggest worry for Dell in this matchup is his matchup with Kenny Moore (79.3% catch rate and 98.3 passer rating) inside, as Dell projects as the team’s starting slot receiver now with Diggs in town. Last year, Indy allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and the ninth-lowest PPR points per target to slot receivers. It’s a tough matchup, but it also has to be stated that Dell has the talent to overcome it.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR)

Pittman has been the model of consistency as a WR2 over the last three seasons (WR14, WR21, WR22). Despite catching passes from Gardner Minshew for most of the year, Pittman finished with his usual efficiency ranking 23rd in YPRR and 24th in FD/RR while gobbling up the volume (ninth in targets, fourth in target share). Despite ranking ninth in red zone targets, he only had four receiving touchdowns last year. Pittman faces a Houston secondary that should again feature heavy two-high coverage in 2024. Last year, the Texans ranked fourth in two-high usage (56.6%). Against two-high last year, Pittman had a 26.2% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, 2.23 YPRR, and 0.114 FD/RR. Pittman will run about 72% of his routes against Derek Stingley Jr. (54.2% catch rate and 76.6 passer rating) and rookie Kamari Lassiter.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Josh Downs (WR)

Downs has been ruled out (ankle).

Adonai Mitchell (WR)

With Downs out, Mitchell will be starting in three wide receiver sets and running from the slot. In the preseason, while logging a 26% TPRR and 1.26 YPRR, Mitchell lined up in the slot on 69.6% of his routes. I wasn’t high on Mitchell as a prospect after he ranked outside the top 96 FBS wide receivers in YPRR, PFF receiving grade, and yards after the catch per reception (minimum 50 targets) in his final collegiate season. Mitchell will face Jimmie Ward (81.2% catch rate and 69.3 passer rating) for most of the game.

Dalton Schultz (TE)

There are only so many targets to go around weekly. If anyone is likely to get squeezed throughout the season in Houston’s passing attack, it’s Schultz. Schultz was the TE11 in fantasy last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 15th in target share, 11th in receiving yards per game, 14th in yards per route run, and 11th in first downs per route run. This matchup with Indy doesn’t bode well for him, either. Indy had the ninth-highest single-high rate last season (59.1%). Last year, against single-high, Schultz had a 19% TPRR, 1.53 YPRR, and 0.089 FD/RR. None of these metrics are terrible, but they are all significantly behind the top three wideouts on this team. Also, add in that Mixon has a good matchup through the air, and Schultz could be the distant fifth option in the passing game in Week 1. Last year, Indy allowed the tenth-lowest yards per reception and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -3.5, O/U 49
• Jaguars vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Jaguars could be a fast-paced, pass-happy team in 2024. In Weeks 14-18 last year, they ranked 13th in neutral pace while leading the NFL in neutral passing rate. Over this same stretch, they were second in red zone passing rate.
• To close last season (Weeks 12-18), Miami was 18th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Jaguars Players & Positional Rankings

Dolphins Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Travis Etienne
• Tyreek Hill
• Evan Engram

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence was battered and bruised for most of last season. He dealt with a sprained MCL, ankle sprain, concussion, and bruised right shoulder. He still willed his way to a QB13 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 14th in CPOE and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Lawrence should light up the Dolphins’ secondary in Week 1. Last year, Miami allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Miami’s issues with defending play-action last year, if still present, could be their undoing. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the ninth-highest passer rating and the fifth-most passing touchdowns to play-action passing. Lawrence was 10th in play-action dropbacks and sixth in big-time throw rate on play-action passes.

Christian Kirk (WR)

Kirk was on his way to a wonderful season last year before injury crushed it. In Weeks 2-12, Krik was the WR19 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.6% target share and 30.5% air-yard share, producing 2.31 YPRR and 0.101 FD/RR. He has a chance to pick up right where he left off in Week 1. If Lawrence rips the Fins secondary to shreds, Kirk should be a big part of the plan. Last year, in Weeks 1-12, on play-action passes, Kirk tied for the team lead with a 19.6% target share and was second in first-read share (21.8%). Miami was also torn to pieces by slot receivers, giving up the seventh-most receptions and the seventh-highest PPR points per target. Kirk should run circles around Kader Kohou (83.5% catch rate and 132.9 passer rating).

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Last year, Tagovailoa was the QB16 in fantasy points per game, even though he was the NFL leader in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. His 2023 season was a rollercoaster where he surpassed 308 passing yards five times, but he also didn’t manage more than 250 passing yards in eight outings. Tagovailoa was quite efficient with his dropbacks, ranking third in yards per attempt, sixth in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Tagovailoa should open the year flirting with QB1 numbers against a pass defense that allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns and passing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

De’Von Achane (RB)

Achane was lightning in a bottle last year. He was the RB5 in fantasy points per game. In the eight games he played at least 41% of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Every time he touched the ball, he had the chance to take it to the house, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Achane should lead the way for Miami’s rushing attack with his zone and gap run game usage. Jacksonville wasn’t a strong run defense overall, as they allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. They did, however, defend zone runs well, holding them to the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Achane’s runs were almost even between zone and gap (47.6% vs. 42.7%), whereas Mostert’s usage was zone-heavy. Achane had the ninth-highest yards per carry and the fourth-highest success rate with gap runs. Jacksonville allowed the 12th-most rushing yards and the sixth-highest yards per carry to gap runs last season. Achane should rip off some big gains in Week 1 on the way to a superb day.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Mostert defied the laws of aging running backs last year as the RB4 in fantasy with 21 total touchdowns. He was still a wizard on a per-touch basis, ranking sixth in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt. On paper, this looks like a game where Achane could take the lead for the backfield, though. Jacksonville was an exploitable run defense last year, allowing the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. The problem for Mostert is that they were strong against zone rushing, which accounted for 64.6% of his rushing attempts. Against zone Jacksonville, they allowed the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Mostert could break a big play at any time, but the odds are lower in Week 1.

Jaylen Waddle (WR)

Waddle had the worst season of his short career last year, finishing as the WR21 in fantasy. Waddle ranked fifth in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run last season, with a 22% target share and a 29.7% air-yard share. With Jacksonville’s new defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, I expect this secondary to lean into two-high coverage. Last year, he led a Falcon’s defense that was ninth in two high usage (53.2%). Last season, in the 12 games Waddle played at least 54% of the snaps, he saw a 23.6% target share, a 31.5% air-yard share, and a 25% first-read share, producing 2.90 YPRR against two high. Waddle will run about 74% of his routes against Ronald Darby (51.7% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) and Tyson Campbell (70% catch rate and 127.4 passer rating).

Jonnu Smith (TE)

Smith could walk out of Week 1 with a TE1-worthy stat line. He was a target of mine in the later rounds of plenty of best-ball drafts this offseason. Last year, among 43 qualifying tight ends, he was 17th in receiving yards per game, 11th in yards per route run, and fifth in missed tackles forced per reception. He could be the WR3 for Tua Tagovailoa this year. He faces a Jacksonville defense that gave up the fifth-most fantasy points per game, the highest yards per reception, and the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends last year. If you need a tight-end streamer for Week 1, Smith makes a ton of sense.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Gabe Davis (WR)

The hard-fast rule with Gabriel Davis probably still applies for 2024 unless we see another evolution in his game. If the defense is pitiful at defending deep passing, then fire up Davis. Last year, he ranked 15th in deep targets and eighth in aDOT among wide receivers. Well, if Miami’s defense continues last year’s trend, this isn’t a week to look to Davis for flex help. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing. Sit Davis for Week 1.

Brian Thomas Jr. (WR)

At least for Week 1, we should follow the Gabriel Davis rule for Thomas Jr. With his 20.5 aDOT in limited preseason action, Thomas Jr. could easily just be a field-stretching option for the Jaguars this season. His downfield exploits in college at LSU were impressive, as he ranked 32nd in YPRR in his final season. His 14.2% TPRR in the preseason isn’t great, but again, it is a 28-route sample that we have to work with. With these small tea leaves to piece together, it’s wise to sit him in Week 1 against a pass defense that allowed the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns and the 12th-lowest passer rating to downfield passing last year.

Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills

• BUF -6.5, O/U 47
• Cardinals vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year, with Murray under center, Arizona had the ninth-slowest neutral pace and the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• With Joe Brady calling the shots, Buffalo ranked fourth in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate.

Cardinals Players & Positional Rankings

Bills Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• Dalton Kincaid
• Kyler Murray
• Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

James Conner (RB)

The falloff for aging running backs comes quickly. Based on last year, Conner looks like he can keep it at bay for at least one more season. Last year, he was seventh in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Conner was the RB13 in fantasy points per game, as he ranked sixth in rushing yards last season. Conner could run wild in Week 1 against a Bills run defense that allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to gap runs in 2023. Last year, Conner saw 53.8% of his rushing volume on gap runs while ranking third in gap yards per carry and second in gap rushing yards. Conner is an RB2 who could return RB1 production in Week 1.

James Cook (RB)

Last season, in Weeks 11-18, with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Yes, he only played more than 60% of the snaps twice during that stretch, but it didn’t matter. After Week 10, he was 16th in target share (11.4%) among 34 qualifying backs while also ranking 10th in TPRR, fourth in receiving yards per game, and second in YPRR. In those final seven games, among 44 qualifying backs, Cook wasn’t spectacular in tackle-breaking metrics, ranking 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. He was quite good on gap runs (59.8% of his carries), ranking 12th in gap yards per carry and gap success rate. Cook should have a successful Week 1 against an Arizona run defense that allowed the most rushing yards per game and the eighth-highest explosive run rate while logging the third-lowest stuff rate. They also struggled to defend gap runs, giving up the eighth-highest gap yards per carry and the ninth-highest gap success rate. Cook is an RB2 that could produce like an RB1.

Curtis Samuel (WR)

Samuel has been practicing on a limited basis. Currently, he is likely to suit up for Week 1. The last time he was in a Joe Brady offense, he finished as the WR27 in fantasy points per game. Last year, sadly, he was the WR48 in fantasy points per game with a 14.7% target share and 1.60 YPRR. I wouldn’t be shocked if Samuel was utilized more on the perimeter this season, considering his performance out wide over the last two seasons. Last year, from the perimeter, among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 30th in yards per route run (2.12). The year prior, he posted a 1.84 yards per route run mark from the outside. Last year, Arizona utilized two high at the second-highest rate (64.9%). Against two high last year, Samuel had a 22% TPRR, 1.62 YPRR, and 0.062 FD/RR. These numbers are not amazing, but his overall profile last year was depressed by the struggling quarterback play of Sam Howell. Samuel is a solid flex for Week 1.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Trey Benson (RB)
With Conner healthy right now, I’m not sure how much Benson we’ll see in Week 1, so I can’t recommend him being in any starting lineup. He’s still a strong stash, though. Over the last two collegiate seasons, Benson has ranked 10th and third in breakaway percentage and 42nd and first in elusive rating (per PFF). Benson didn’t show well in the preseason, with only 2.35 yards after contact per attempt and a 41.5 elusive rating, but it was only with 17 carries, so for now, I’ll take it with a grain of salt.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

After Week 7 last year, Shakir logged nine games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps. In those contests, he posted a strong 2.18 yards per route run with 0.085 first downs per route run, but he only managed to cultivate an 11% target share and 12% air-yard share. In that stretch among 84 qualifying receivers, he was 42nd in fantasy points per game. Last year, Arizona utilized two high at the second-highest rate (64.9%). In Weeks 8-18 last year, against two-high, Shakir saw similar production, with his target share only bumping to 11.8% and his YPRR sitting at 2.11. The matchup is in his favor against a pass defense that allowed the ninth-highest PPR points per target to slot wide receivers. Shakir will match up with Garrett Williams (72.4% catch rate and 85.7 passer rating) for most of the day. The floor isn’t great for Shakir in Week 1, but he has some upside to consider as a flex play.

Keon Coleman (WR)
We’ll see if Coleman can hit the ground running in Week 1. I wasn’t particularly high on Coleman as a prospect, as he never ranked higher than 72nd in yards per route run, receiving grade, or yards after the catch per reception in his final two seasons in college. His size could leave him as a weekly red zone threat in this offense, but I question his target commanding ability. The early returns weren’t promising in the preseason with an 18.7% TPRR and 0.63 YPRR, but it was only 32 routes. Coleman will run most of his routes on the perimeter against Sean Murphy-Bunting (65.2% catch rate and 91.9 passer rating) and rookie Max Melton. Coleman is a risky flex for Week 1 that could disappoint.

Michael Wilson (WR)

Last year, in the 12 games Wilson played at least 69% of the snaps, he commanded a 13.5% target share and 25.5% air-yard share, producing 1.37 YPRR and 8.8 fantasy points per game. Overall, he was the WR57 in fantasy points per game with three games inside the top-24 wideouts in weekly scoring. Last year, Buffalo utilized two high at the third-highest rate (58.6%). In the games where he saw a full-time snap share against two high, Wilson saw his YPRR climb to 1.66, and his fantasy points per route run sit at 0.40. Among 75 qualifying wide receivers last year, against two-high, those marks ranked 35th and 34th. Wilson is a viable flex in Week 1 who will run about 74% of his routes against Rasul Douglas (66.3% catch rate and 73.1 passer rating) and Christian Benford (68.9% catch rate and 87.1 passer rating).

Greg Dortch (WR)

Last year, in Weeks 11-18, Dortch assumed a starting role-playing at least 65% of the snaps weekly, seeing a 15.7% target share and 15.1% first-read share with 1.42 YPRR as the WR49 in fantasy. Last year, Buffalo utilized two high at the third-highest rate (58.6%). In the games where he saw a full-time snap share against two high, Dortch saw his target share dip to 11.8% and his YPRR fall to 1.08. This interesting wrinkle is that during his starting stretch, he played 76.5% of his snaps on the perimeter. Dortch should be the team’s starting slot this year so that the outside usage could have contributed to the dip in his production. Dortch is a decent (but not standout) deep league flex who will see Taron Johnson (76.5% catch rate and 104.9 passer rating) in coverage most of the day. Last year, Buffalo allowed the fifth-most receptions to slot receivers while also ranking 17th in PPR points per target and 18th in receiving yards allowed to the position.

New England Patriots vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• CIN -7.5, O/U 40.5
• Patriots vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year with Cleveland, Alex Van Pelt helped direct an offense that was third in neutral pace and 14th in neutral passing rate.
• The Bengals ranked 15th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral passing rate last season.

Patriots Players & Positional Rankings

Bengals Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Joe Burrow

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson’s 2023 season was a terrible disappointment, but there’s hope that his 2024 campaign will be a wonderful bounce-back story. Last year, after Week 8, we saw glimpses of the Stevenson we thought we were drafting from the outset. In Weeks 9-13 (Stevenson missed the remainder of the season due to a high ankle sprain), among 48 qualifying backs, he ranked 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. In his three full games in that span, he averaged 20.7 touches and 112.7 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy. The Patriots should look to lean on him in this opening game. Cincy’s run defense was atrocious last year, allowing the seventh-highest rushing yards per game and the fifth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt. Mondre SZN begins in Week 1.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR)

Chase is active and will be playing in Week 1. I do think it’s pretty easy regarding Chase, though. Chase is active, so he is in your lineups. Chase has the talent to blow up even with limited snaps. Cincinnati could also easily limit his snaps by cutting back his snaps on run plays, and it wouldn’t hurt his pass game availability, which is all we care about for fantasy purposes. Last year, when Joe Burrow was healthy (Weeks 5-10), Chase was awesome. He had a 28.4% target share, a 43.1% air-yard share, and a 34.5% first-read share. During that small sample, he produced a mouthwatering 2.69 YPRR and 0.145 FD/RR. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). The last time we got a full season of Chase and Burrow ripping the league up (2022), Chase was a monster against single-high. Among 88 qualifying wide receivers, he ranked fourth in target share (32.3%), fifth in air-yard share (442.%), seventh in YPRR (3.12), and third in FD/RR (0.159). Chase will match up with Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) all day. With Higgins being listed as doubtful, Chase could be leaned on heavily when he’s on the field, even if his snaps are limited.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Higgins has been ruled out (hamstring).

DeMario Douglas (WR)

Douglas is the only Patriots’ wide receiver I feel good about possibly plugging into a lineup in Week 1. We still don’t know the rotation of the receivers on the outside, but Douglas should have no concerns as the team’s starting slot. Last year, in the eight games Douglas played at least 50% of the snaps, he commanded a team-leading 20.8% target share and 24.4% first read share. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in five of those eight games. Last year Cincy had the sixth-highest single-high rate (59.8%). In that eight-game sample, against single-high, Douglas managed a 22.5% target share with 1.98 YPRR and a 23.2% first-read share. Encouraging numbers, no doubt. The good vibes continue when we look at the matchup for Douglas. Last year, the Bengals gave up the third-highest receiving touchdowns and the fifth-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers. Douglas will run about 67% of his routes against Mike Hilton (72.7% catch rate and 78.5 passer rating).

Hunter Henry (TE)

Henry is banged up, but he may play in Week 1. He dealt with ankle and knee issues last year as well. Henry had ten games last year where he was able to play at least 70% of the snaps. In that sample, he finished as a TE1 in 50% of his games while drawing a 15.2% target share with 1.35 yards per route run and 35.7 receiving yards per game. He averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game. The interesting takeaway in that sample was that among 41 qualifying tight ends, he ranked seventh in first downs per route run and that fantasy points per game mark would have made him TE8 in fantasy if he had kept up the pace all year. Henry has a wonderful matchup for Week 1 if you’re in need of a streamer in deep leagues. Last year, the Bengals allowed the most receptions, the third-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Jacoby Brissett (QB)

The last time we saw Brissett in an extended starting role was in 2022, when he was with Cleveland. In that season, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt, fourth in CPOE, and 25th in fantasy points per dropback. Brissett could return nice streaming upside this week for Fantasy GMs in deeper Superflex formats. Last year, Cincy allowed the highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest CPOE, and the sixth-most passing yards per game.

Chase Brown (RB)

Brown should be heavily involved this season after working as a breather back last year. Last season, Brown was impressive on a per-touch basis, although the sample size is pretty limited (44 carries). Among 77 backs with at least 40 carries, Brown ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The rushing matchup is tough for Brown, but he could exploit the Pats through the air. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. The Pats did give up the ninth-most receptions and the 13th-most receiving yards to backs last season. Among 67 qualifying backs last year, Brown ranked first in YPRR and FD/RR. Brown is flex-worthy in Week 1.

Zack Moss (RB)

If the camp reports are right, Moss should open the season immediately, splitting work with Chase Brown. That’s not the hope for anyone who drafted him this summer, but it’s likely the reality. Last year, in the seven games he played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Overall, he ranked 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year. Cincy could lean into their passing game this week with what projects to be a tough matchup on the ground. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. I wouldn’t trust Moss as an RB2 in my lineups but rather as a middling flex play.

Antonio Gibson (RB)

Gibson is a stash/handcuff. It’s too dicey to plug him into a starting lineup in Week 1 until we see how New England divides up the workload. I will say, though, that Gibson was impressive on a per-touch basis last season, ranking first in missed tackles forced per attempt and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. While consensus is down on the Patriots’ offense this year, Gibson is a strong end-of-the-bench bet.

Andrei Iosivas (WR)

Iosivas will open this year as the Bengals’ starting slot and WR3. Iosivas flashed late last year when called upon to step into a starting role. In Weeks 16 and 18, Iosivas played at least 70% of snaps while drawing a 21.4% target share, a 35.5% air-yard share, and a 19.2% first-read share. He produced an eye-popping 0.121 FD/RR. It’s a very small sample, but it had to be mentioned. Last year, New England was seventh in single high rate (59.7%). Last season against single-high, Iosivas had a 22% TPRR and only 1.09 YPRR. Iosivas could be moved from the slot to the perimeter if Higgins is out or limited which at this point looks likely. If that comes to fruition, he’ll line up against Christian Gonzalez (66.7% catch rate and 67.5 passer rating) and Jonathan Jones (57.4% catch rate and 86.0 passer rating) for most of the game. Iosivas is a decent flex play in Week 1.

Ja’Lynn Polk (WR)

Polk is currently listed as a backup on various depth charts, so it’s tough to consider starting him in Week 1. We have no clue what his route and snap shares will look like. New England looks to be pushing the crusty veterans on their depth chart to the front of the line and making the rookies earn it. It’s not an approach I would take, but hey, what do I know? I would sit Polk in all formats for Week 1. Last year, Cincy allowed the eighth-fewest receiving touchdowns to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 17th in PPR points per target.