Week 1 is HERE! Fantasy Football is BACK!

Oh, breathe it in people. Can you smell it? That wondrous Week 1 new car smell.

Shiny new rookies are littering the lot. Refurbished veterans that offer some revitalized sex appeal. Every Fantasy GM gets to take their team for the inaugural drive of the 2024 Fantasy Football season. While plenty of details have changed in the offseason, the goal remains the same.

To win Fantasy Football championships!

The same can be said for the Primer. My aim with this article has always been (and remains) to provide actionable and in-depth advice to help you win your weekly matchups. This year, the engine has the same familiar humm, but this beautiful sports car is getting a new coat of paint.

Lean. Mean. A Fantasy Football dominating machine.
(ok, that might have sounded exceptionally cheesy, but you get my drift.)

Here’s the skinny. You don’t need me to tell you to start the elites at every position. Patrick Mahomes. Christian McCaffrey. A.J. Brown. Those players will be in your lineups weekly (outside of bye weeks). Rain. Snow. Wind. It doesn’t matter. You will be starting them. Those players will be covered in a quick reference Must-Start section for each game. Every other fantasy option you can imagine will be bucketed and analyzed like usual in my Strong Starts, Flex Plays, & Fades sections.

The reality is that you don’t need me to tell you to start your studs, so I won’t. But I will still be diving into the weeds to help provide clarity, insight, and a helping hand with setting the rest of your lineups weekly.
I hope you love the new format as much as I do. Without further ado, let’s dive in.

Welcome to the Week 1 Primer.

Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer

Fantasy Football Primer

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Watch Live on Fubo (Save $30)
• PHI -2.5, O/U 48.5
• Packers vs. Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Weeks 11-18 last year, Green Bay had the ninth-slowest neutral pace while ranking 20th in neutral passing rate.
• Toss out the Eagles pace and passing rate stats from last year. A new play-calling sheriff is in town this year. Kellen Moore should raise the floor and ceiling in both categories this season. Last year with Moore, the Bolts ranked second-best in neutral pace while sitting at eighth in neutral passing rate. In 2024, the Eagles could fly higher than we’ve ever seen before, with Jalen Hurts starting.

Packers Players & Positional Rankings

Eagles Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• A.J. Brown
• Saquon Barkley

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Love (QB)

Last year, to close the season, Love was on fire. In Weeks 11-18, he was the QB4 in fantasy points per game while ranking 11th in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. To open the 2024 season, he encounters a Philly pass defense that will look quite different in terms of the scheme but will be deploying plenty of the same names that filled out the lineup card last year. In 2023, the Eagles allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the second-most passing touchdowns and fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While I don’t expect this defense to be a bottom-five unit against the pass this season, we still have to see how much they improve with Vic Fangio calling the shots. This is, at worst, a middle-of-the-road matchup for Love. Fire him up as a QB1 in Week 1.

Josh Jacobs (RB)

Last year was tough for Jacobs as he tried to follow up on his amazing 2022 season. He was limited to 13 games played and appeared to be running in slow motion when he was on the field. Last season, Jacobs had the 12th-highest stuff rate while also crawling in at 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. With A.J. Dillon out and MarShawn Lloyd banged up, Jacobs could see an 80% snapshare (or higher) in Week 1 with only Emanuel Wilson fully healthy. The Eagles were a tough matchup for backs last year, but they allowed big plays on the ground. Philly allowed the fifth-highest adjusted yards before contact per attempt and the ninth-highest explosive run rate, but that’s where the good times end. This run defense also held rushers in check with the eighth-lowest missed tackles, the sixth-lowest yards after contact per attempt, and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. Jacobs is a volume play for Week 1.

My Week 1 Prop betting action HAS BEGUN!

Follow me on the @BettingPros app, Turn on Notifications, & don’t miss any of my props bets.https://t.co/MlDCTD9bP5 pic.twitter.com/iY3vhnOsm0

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 29, 2024

Christian Watson (WR)
I know people are tired of my never-ending love for Watson, but when he was on the field in a full-time capacity last year, he was Green Bay’s WR1. In Weeks 5-13, Watson led the team in target share (17.7%), air-yard share (36.7%), YPRR (1.79), end zone targets (14), first-read share (22.3%), and FD/RR (0.081). Watson should contend for the team lead in targets out of the gate. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps last year. Last season in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Watson was second on the team with a 14.4% target share and an 18.3% first read share while leading the Pack with a 36.3% air-yard share, 2.03 yards per route run, and five end zone targets. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Watson has a blow-up game in Week 1 against what looks to be a pass-funnel defense. Watson will run about 63% of his routes against Darius Slay (64.3% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating) and rookie Quinyon Mitchell.

Romeo Doubs (WR)

Doubs was the WR46 in fantasy points per game last year, which was influenced greatly by touchdowns. Last season, Doubs was fourth among wideouts in end zone target while also ranking seventh in receiving touchdowns (eight). His per-route efficiency metrics were not great by any stretch of the imagination. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 50th in target share, 57th in receiving yards per game, and 56th in yards per route run. Doubs, however, was one of Green Bay’s go-to guys against Cover 3 and Cover 6, so there’s some flex appeal hope for Week 1. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Doubs led the team with a 16.3% target share and a 19.5% first-read share while also sitting at second with a 32.9% air-yard share. He only produced 1.18 yards per route run, but if the volume is there this week, it might not matter much. Doubs will run about 84% of his routes against Darius Slay (64.3% catch rate and 84.3 passer rating) and rookie Quinyon Mitchell.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

Smith finished last year as the WR20 in fantasy points per game while commanding a 20.9% target share, a 31.8% air-yard share, and a 25.6% first-read share. He posted a strong 1.96 yards per route run while ranking 21st in receiving yards per game. Smith will be Brown’s running mate again this year as the Eagles’ WR2. He faces a Green Bay pass defense that could look different this year, with new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley taking over. Last year the Packers had the fifth-most single-high coverage in the NFL. Hafley could change that in 2024. During his last stint in the NFL, Hafley was with Robert Saleh in San Francisco for two years. Saleh led a Jets’ pass defense last year that had the 11th-highest two-high rate in the league (51.6%). Last season, Smith led the team with a 23% target share, a 40.6% air-yard share, and 2.45 yards per route run against two-high. Don’t be surprised if Smith out-targets Brown in Week 1.

Jayden Reed (WR)

Reed had a wonderful rookie campaign, finishing with ten total touchdowns (fifth-most) and being the WR26 in fantasy points per game. He saw a 17.6% target share with only a 69.6% route participation as the Packers utilize a healthy dose of 12 and 21 personnel, thus limiting his weekly snap rate as the team’s starting slot receiver. He did rank 21st in deep targets and 14th in red zone targets while also receiving a smattering of rushing work. The Eagles defense will likely deploy heavy Cover 3 and Cover 6 usage this year after Vic Fangio dialed it up on 59.7% of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps last year. Last season, in Weeks 5-13, against Cover 3 and Cover 6, Reed only saw a 9.3% target share and 11% first-read share and produced 1.55 yards per route run. While all of those numbers are concerning, it does help Reed’s case that the Eagles were ripped to shreds by slot receivers last season, allowing the most receptions, the 13th-highest PPR points per target, and the sixth-most receiving touchdowns to the position. I’m skeptical of those numbers repeating in 2024 with the team shoring up nickel this offseason, with the team drafting Cooper DeJean while also bringing back C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

Goedert missed time again last year after suffering a broken arm in Week 10. Overall, he was the TE12 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share, 13th in receiving yards per game, and 15th in first downs per route run. If the new Packer’s defensive coordinator flips the scheme to more two-high, Goedert could have a busy week. Last year, in his 14 games played against two-high, Goedert had an 18.2% target share, 1.49 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. Last year, Green Bay was 15th in receiving yards allowed to tight ends while surrendering the fifth-most receiving touchdowns.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

MarShawn Lloyd (RB)

The Packers take the conservative approach and have ruled out Lloyd for Week 1 (hamstring).

Dontayvion Wicks (WR)

Wicks has gained hype and a hive following this offseason. I won’t say it isn’t deserved because he was ridiculous on a per-route basis last season. Last year, among 81 qualifying receivers, he was 37th in target per route run rate, 17th in yards per route run, and 13th in first downs per route run. The problem for Wicks is that he still projects as a part-time player only and the WR4 on this depth chart. In Weeks 5-13 last season, with Watson healthy, Wicks was fourth on the team with only a 30.3% route per dropback rate. For what it’s worth, Wicks was strong (in a VERY limited sample) against Cover 3 and Cover 6 (only 35 routes) with a 29% target per route run rate and 4.51 yards per route run. I wouldn’t be trotting Wicks out in lineups in Week 1, as he might only run a handful of routes, but if you’re in a DEEP league and need the flex upside, I get it. Wicks is still best viewed as a stash and not a flex play at this point.

Luke Musgrave (TE)

The Packers’ room is a mess until we see their in-season usage in 2024. Will they split routes and snaps this year? Will Musgrave reassume his clear starting role, or did Tucker Kraft do enough last year to eat into his playing or supplant him? With Kraft dealing with a torn pectoral this offseason, I doubt he will supplant him immediately, but I won’t rule it out during the season. Musgrave gets a small boost this week as Tucker Kraft is dealing with a back issue (listed as questionable for the game). Last year, in Weeks 1-10, he was the TE22 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, among 31 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (13.0%), 15th in yards per route run (1.48), 19th in receiving yards per game (34.8), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.057). The matchup against Philly isn’t great. Last year, they were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception.

Tucker Kraft (TE)

Last year, Kraft assumed the starting tight end role in Week 12 and was the TE12 in fantasy points per game for the final seven games of the season. During his tenure as the starter, among 37 qualifying tight ends, he was 21st in target share (14.2%), 19th in yards per route run (1.59), and 12th in receiving yards per game and first downs per route run. Last year, the Eagles were 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. While they did give up the tenth-most receptions to the position, they also permitted the 12th-lowest yards per reception. Kraft is a fine, deep league stash, but it’s impossible to plug him into a lineup in Week 1. Kraft is dealing with a back issue after only getting in a limited practice session on Wednesday. He has been listed as questionable. This gives a boost to Luke Musgrave.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Atlanta Falcons

• ATL -3.5, O/U 41.5
• Steelers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year, Atlanta had the eighth-best neutral pace while operating at the second-highest neutral rushing rate. Pittsburgh led the NFL in neutral rushing rate, so Arthur Smith can continue with a similar offensive design as last year. Expect the Steelers to run, run, and run some more this season.
• Zac Robinson heads to Atlanta as the newest branch of the Sean McVay tree to hit the play calling streets. He served as the Ram’s pass game coordinator for the last two years. If he carries any of McVay’s tendencies to Atlanta expect this offense to be middle of the road with pace and neutral passing rate. Last year, the Rams were 21st in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.

Steelers Players & Positional Rankings

Falcons Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kirk Cousins (QB)

Before the Achilles injury derailed Cousins’ 2023 season, he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game. Captain Kohl’s was 13th in highly accurate throw rate, seventh in CPOE, and fourth in adjusted completion rate. Cousins’ mobility will be tested immediately in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers’ pass defense was a middling unit, allowing the 14th-highest yards per attempt and the 12th-most passing touchdowns while sitting at 15th in passing yards per game permitted. Pittsburgh will keep Cousins’ on his toes, though, as they were sixth in blitz rate and 11th in pressure rate last year. If Cousins can handle the chaos, he should have a productive day, as he was 14th in passing grade and second in adjusted completion rate when blitzed last year.

Najee Harris (RB)

Harris was his usual consistent self last season. He finished with his third consecutive season with at least 1,000 rushing yards, eight total touchdowns, and 1,200 total yards. That didn’t equate to a smash season, though, as he was the RB30 in fantasy points per game as he split work with Jaylen Warren. Warren will still be a thorn in his side for 2024. What gets lost in the Harris discussion, though, is that he arguably had one of his best seasons on a per-touch basis of his career. Among 49 qualifying backs, he was 10th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris could have a tough time in Week 1 against a stout Falcons’ run defense. While Atlanta allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and 13th-most rushing yards per game, they were a tough team overall to run on. They faced the sixth-most rushing attempts last year and held opposing rushers at bay with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Harris will have to rely on volume this week.

#Steelers Jaylen Warren at practice showing off speed, cuts pic.twitter.com/Qzh2VzHfdx

— 93.7 The Fan (@937theFan) September 2, 2024

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Warren sounds like he is trending toward playing Week 1, but I’d monitor injury reports for the rest of the week. I’ll update his status as we get more information. The Steelers could definitely use his explosive skill set against the Falcons. Last year, Warren ranked third in explosive run rate, first in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. He was also 12th in yards per route run and fifth in targets per route run. While he was the RB29 in fantasy points per game last season, he also finished as an RB2 or better in weekly fantasy scoring in 50% of his games. Atlanta was a tough run defense to face last year with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Warren is an RB3/flex.

Drake London (WR)

2024 is liftoff time for London. Last year, London’s numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons’ quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate. London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). I will say immediately that I don’t know if that happens in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (62.8%). London led the team in target share (18.6%, tied) and with a 24% first-read share against single-high. The worry I have with London for Week 1 is that he could draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. (47.4% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating). Porter Jr. followed receivers on at least 58.8% of their routes last year eight times. In that sample, he held five receivers under 40 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If London isn’t shadowed, then he’ll see equal amounts of Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson (66.2% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating).

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh’s aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We’ll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh’s quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons’ defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).

Kyle Pitts (TE)

I know you’ve heard this before, but the pain train stops here for Pitts. Disappointment szn is a thing of the past with Arthur Smith gone. We know Pitts wasn’t fully healthy last year, but his usage with Smith was confounding. Pitts finished as the TE16 in fantasy points per game and the TE15 in expected fantasy points per game. Much of this can be attributed to his minuscule touchdown production (only three, 18th among TEs) and a non-existent red zone role (34th in red zone targets). Pitts still earned volume at a solid clip, ranking 13th in target share and 11th in first-read share, although his efficiency dipped (18th in yards per route run and first downs per route run). Pitts should produce a tasty stat line in Week 1 against a defense that allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and fifth-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers last year (2023 Pitts’ slot rate: 58.5%).

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson has been ruled out (calf).

Justin Fields (QB)

With Fields starting, with his rushing upside, at the bare minimum, he should be ranked as a top-15 quarterback and probably closer to a top-12 option. People can poke holes in Fields’ passing ability, but his fantasy powers should not be questioned. Fields was the QB9 in fantasy points per game and seventh in fantasy points per dropback despite ranking 20th in CPOE, 19th in yards per attempt, and ninth in hero throw rate (among 45 qualifying quarterbacks). Fields will have a tough matchup if he does draw the start. Atlanta might have allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns last year, but they were pretty tough in nearly every other category for passers. The Falcons permitted the sixth-lowest adjusted completion rate, the seventh-lowest CPOE, and the 10th-fewest yards per attempt.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is coming off a horrific season where he was the WR86 in fantasy. In 15 games played last year, he only managed two weekly finishes inside the top 36 wide receivers. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 70th in target share and 74th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Last season, the Steelers had the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (62.8%). Mooney was passable but not electric against single high in 2023 with a 15% target share, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.4% first-read share. Mooney will see Donte Jackson (66.2% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating) and Joey Porter Jr. (47.4% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

Pat Freiermuth (TE)

Last year wasn’t exactly the type of season anyone hoped for, Freiermuth. He finished as the TE27 in fantasy points per game before a hamstring issue derailed his season. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, Freiermuth ranked 23rd in target share, 34th in yards per route run, and 28th in first downs per route run. The hope candle has been lit again for the 2024 season, but I have my worries. We have all seen what Arthur Smith does with player usage. I won’t rule out Darnell Washington cutting into Freiermuth’s snaps and routes more than anyone wants to see. If Freiermuth retains an every-down role, the matchup is nice for Week 1. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons’ defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, when Freiermuth was healthy, he saw a 12% target share and 14.2% first read share producing 1.25 yards per route run. None of these numbers are amazing, but Morris’s defense could be vulnerable to tight ends in 2024. The Falcons have upgraded their defense this offseason, but they still surrendered the fourth-most receptions and receiving yards to tight ends last year.

Tennessee Titans vs. Chicago Bears

• CHI -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Titans vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Last year, during Will Levis‘ tenure as the starter, the Titans ranked 24th in neutral pace with the sixth highest neutral rushing rate. That is likely to change in 2024 with Brian Callahan at the helm. Last year, as the offensive coordinator for the Bengals, he helped author an offense that ranked 15th in neutral pace with the second-highest passing rate in close games.
• Shane Waldron will take over as Chicago’s offensive coordinator, and things are sure to change this year. During his play-calling tenure with Seattle, he ranked seventh in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate. Look for Chicago to air it out and run faster this season.

Titans Players & Positional Rankings

Bears Players & Positional Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tony Pollard (RB)

I know what you’re thinking…” Hey, this guy told me Pollard was his RB1 overall last year.” Yep, I did. I’ll own the L here. Tony Pollard was a massive disappointment. I didn’t think it was possible for his tackle-breaking ability to go from stellar to putrid, but it happened. The reality is that he had the role that we coveted, though, and he should be considered the lead back for Tennessee entering this season. Last season, he was a volume-eating machine, ranking seventh in carries and 11th in targets among backs. The bright side is that in 2024, he could rebound and look much closer to the player we thought we were getting last year. Last season in Weeks 11-18, among 44 qualifying backs, Pollard ranked 15th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in explosive run rate, and had the 11th-lowest stuff rate. Unfortunately, if the Bears continue to field a similarly dominant run defense this year as they did in 2023, Pollard could start slow in Week 1. Last year, Chicago had the fifth-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and third-lowest explosive run rate.

Tyjae Spears (RB)

Spears lines up as a decent flex/RB3 for Week 1. He’ll have to rely on his big play ability (which Spears can do), as the matchup is brutal. Last year, he was fifth in explosive run rate and 14th in yards after contact per attempt. He proved that he can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game as well, ranking seventh in target share, 10th in TPRR, and 17th in YPRR. With the rushing matchup looking like nightmare fuel for the Titans’ backs, Spears could outscore Pollard in Week 1 if the team leans into his receiving chops. Last year, Chicago had the fifth-highest stuff rate while holding backs to the 11th-lowest yards after contact per attempt and third-lowest explosive run rate. The Bears were abysmal at stopping backs through the air, giving up the highest yards per reception, the second-most receptions, and the most receiving yards.

D’Andre Swift (RB)

Swift enters the 2024 season at the top of this running back depth chart for Chicago. That top spot could be more assumption and less reality though. Last year, Chicago utilized a full-blown committee, with Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, and D’Onta Foreman all having moments in the sun. Swift was “good” last season, but he wasn’t nearly as good as you might think at first glance. After monster games in Weeks 2 & 3, he proceeded to average only 16.8 touches and 72.4 total yards the rest of the season as the RB25 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked only 40th in yards after contact per attempt and 30th in missed tackles forced per attempt. Swift could have a hard time finding running room in Week 1 against a Titans’ defense that allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the 13th-lowest missed tackles last season. They were also a shutdown defense against backs through the air with the fourth-fewest receptions while also sitting at 16th in yards per reception.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

We can’t dance around this fact. Ridley was a disappointment last year in Fantasy Football, but hey, it’s a new season and a chance for Ridley to reenter Fantasy GMs’ good graces. He was the WR27 in fantasy points per game while also ranking as the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His market share numbers were passable (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), but his per-route efficiency was horrendous. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it’s tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Ridley had a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.20 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.100 first downs per route run (FD/RR). Ridley will see Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury, but he’s expected to play in Week 1, according to the latest reports I’ve read. He practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Last year, he was the WR29 in fantasy points per game. With Will Levis under center last year (Weeks 8-15), he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Those market share numbers will drop some with Calvin Ridley in town. Hopkins was the only main show in town last season. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it’s tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4 with Levis under center, Hopkins had a 29.8% target share, 3.0 YPRR, a 37.6% first-read share, and 0.102 FD/RR. Hopkins will run about 79% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating)

DJ Moore (WR)

New year. New quarterback. New wide receivers are flanking Moore. Tons of change for the Chicago passing attack this offseason, but Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the way for Windy City’s aerial attack. Last season, he was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. He also shined on a per-route basis, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Moore faces a pass defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson calling the shots. Last year, Wilson was with Baltimore as their defensive backs’ coach. Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Last year against two high, Moore had a 24.6% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. With the additions of Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, those market share numbers will undoubtedly come back down to earth some. His YPRR mark against two-high was ranked 34th out of 97 qualifying wide receivers last year, so he was good but not elite. Moore will run about 78% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L’Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. The target share will come down. The question is how much in 2024. Allen could lead the way against Tennessee in Week 1, as his numbers last year remained stellar against two-high. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was the defensive backs coach for Baltimore last year. Last season, Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Allen, against two high last season, had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.48 YPRR (10th-best), and 0.109 FD/RR (17th-best). Allen could out-target Moore in Week 1. Allen is dealing with a heel issue. He practiced in full on Friday, but he has been listed as questionable.

Fantasy Football Week 1 Flex Plays & Fades

Tread lightly with these players that are questionable (deep league) starts or players I’m fading this week.

Caleb Williams (QB)

Williams flashed his big-time upside in the preseason. He had a 13% big-time throw rate and 8.5 yards per attempt while also having some rookie growing pains (61.1% adjusted completion rate). We all know Williams was a high-end prospect who could hit the ground running immediately in his rookie season as a talented receiving depth chart flanks him. The Tennessee pass defense allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and CPOE and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate last year, but that could change this year. This offseason upgrading the secondary was of prime importance with the additions of Quandre Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and L’Jarius Snead. Williams could return QB1 production in Week 1, but it’s more reasonable to expect a QB2 stat line.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis was middling at best last year after taking over the starting job. In Weeks 8-15, he averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, which over the course of a full season would have placed him as the QB30 in fantasy. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Nothing about his starting tenure was impressive outside of his Week 8 game against the Falcons. Unfortunately, he begins the season with a stout matchup against a Bears’ pass defense that was among the best in the league to close the 2023 season. After Week 11, Chicago allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the third-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate. Levis is better off on your benches this week unless you’re desperate in a Superflex format.

Khalil Herbert (RB)

As good as Herbert was last year on a per-touch basis, Chicago was reluctant to commit to him as the clear lead guy all year. Last season, he ranked 12th in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt. In the eight games he played at least 43% of the snaps last season, he averaged 14 touches and 77.8 total yards.With Swift on the roster, Herbert should be best viewed as his direct backup with some stand alone value. This isn’t the week to attempt to get cute and play him as a flex though against a Titans’ defense that allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the 13th-lowest missed tackles last season.

Rome Odunze (WR)

There should be no worries AT ALL about Odunze’s talent, but he could get squeezed for targets this season surrounded by Moore and Allen. In his final season in college, Odunze ranked 18th in YPRR and 8th in PFF receiving grade. We still have no idea how much 11 personnel Chicago will run and who will be the starter opposite Moore when the team rolls into two wide sets. Odunze is a decent flex based on talent, but if at all possible I’m sitting him this week. We need to see what his role and snap share look like before tossing him into starting lineups. Odunze likely runs most of his routes on the perimeter against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L’Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

Tyler Boyd (WR)

Last year, Boyd limped to a WR59 finish in fantasy points per game. He managed to draw only a 15.1% target share with 39.2 receiving yards per game, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 17.6% first-read share. He’s a deep league flex only for Week 1. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Boyd had an 18% TPRR, 1.51 YPRR, and 0.053 FD/RR. None of these metrics inspire confidence against the Bears. Sit Boyd Week 1.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE)

Okonkwo was the offseason tight end late-round darling last year. He failed to live up to the hype and hope last year. Despite that fact, he should be viewed as the Titans’ clear starter at the position for this year. In Week 3 of the preseason with Will Levis under center, he logged a 72% snap rate and an 87.5% route per dropback rate. Last season, Okonkwo was the TE26 in fantasy points per game with a 15% target share, 1.47 YPRR, 0.069 FD/RR, and a 15.5% first-read share. He wasn’t a huge part of their red zone offense, with only six looks all year (27th). That could change this season. Oknokwo could get off to a solid start in Week 1 against a Bears’ defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to slot tight ends last year (Okonkwo 57.5% slot in 2023) and the fourth-most receptions and sixth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends overall. If you’re looking for a tight end to stream in Week 1, Okonkwo makes a ton of sense.

Cole Kmet (TE)

It might be time to panic if you drafted Kmet or have plans that he will be a top 12-15 fantasy tight end this season. Yes, last year, he was the TE9 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 51 qualifying tight ends, Kmet ranked 12th in target share, seventh in yards per route run, and 10th in first downs per route run. He was the clear second option in the passing game. That WILL NOT happen in 2024 if everyone stays healthy. In the preseason, he only ran a route on 35% of Caleb Williams‘ pass attempts as Gerald Everett got involved. Even if you want to ignore that, his matchup is brutal for Week 1. Last year, Tennessee allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends. Sit Kmet.