Navigating Week 1 of the fantasy football season can be tricky, but identifying key buy-low and sell-high trade candidates early can set the tone for a successful year. In this article, we’ll break down the top players you should target and those you might want to move while their value is high. Backed by insights from our team of Featured Pros, these recommendations will help you capitalize on market inefficiencies and stay ahead of your league.
Week 1 Trade Candidates: Buy Low
Who is your favorite buy-low trade candidate heading into the season, and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)
“While Blake Corum is very tempting, for reasons discussed for the last several months, Jerome Ford just about fits any single team manager can construct. Ford will get four games, minimum, as the leader of the Cleveland backfield, as Nick Chubb starts the season on the physically unable to perform list. For Ford, that is games against Dallas, Jacksonville, the Giants, and the Raiders. Those are four very solid matchups to start for Ford. Even with D’Onta Foreman hanging around, he should get the majority of the work for the Browns to start the season. Teams that are struggling for RB depth could be comfortable dealing George Pickens, Ladd McConkey, or Hollywood Brown to get Ford.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Jerome Ford is starting the season as the Cleveland Brown RB1! Nick Chubb will begin the year on the PUP, and Cleveland is only carrying two other running backs (Foreman/Strong), which indicates they have confidence in Ford to carry the load to start the year against the Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants, Raiders, and Commanders. Ford could be had for a WR3 like Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson, or Jayden Reed. If Chubb comes back strong, Ford will carry teams through September and will remain a change-of-pace Flex option the rest of the year, but if Chubb doesn’t come back to form, Ford will be a steal at this cost!”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL)
“Kyle Pitts’ current ADP is TE 7, which is pretty cheap for a guy who has the potential to finish as fantasy’s top TE. Captain Kirk (Cousins) will be the best QB Kyle Pitts has ever played with, and the upgrade should help the Falcons’ offense boldly go where no man has gone before: the endzone, haha. Pitts was unstoppable in college, and as long as he and Cousins can stay healthy, it’s logical to think that Pitts will not only dominate this season but for many years to come. “Helm, lock phasers on Kyle Pitts (one of Ringo’s favorite draft targets in 2024)…..Fire Mr. Sulu!” WHO WOULD YOU TRADE FOR HIM? I would be very aggressive with my trade offers; even if I overpay, I want to get Kyle Pitts at all costs, whether that means adding someone to a trade package or, better still, having my trade partner add a player along with Pitts in the deal, while Kyle’s value is still relatively cheap…..Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Justin Jefferson, Kyren Williams, or James Cook. Bottom line- if Kyle Pitts has the year I think he’s capable of (finishes as TE 1), I think he’s a potential league winner at his current cheap price tag.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR)
“Many avoided Diontae Johnson during their fantasy drafts because he plays for the Panthers. While Bryce Young struggled as a rookie, he made Adam Thielen a top-five wide receiver over the first six weeks last year. Meanwhile, Johnson had the 12th-highest yards per route run rate (3.21) against man coverage among wide receivers with at least 65 routes last season despite awful quarterback production (per Fantasy Points Data). The last time he had a competent quarterback (2021), Johnson was the WR8, averaging 13.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. While the veteran won’t be a WR1, Johnson should end the year in the low-end WR2 range. I would gladly flip a running back in a split backfield like Blake Corum or Zack Moss for Johnson.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
“When it comes to buy low options for week one, my favorite option is Javonte Williams. Williams, in year two, back from a torn ACL, is set up to feast in 2024. The biggest knock on Williams was his down season last year, but if you take your Breece Hall glasses off, you realize that year two is usually when we see running backs bounce back from ACL injuries. Williams has a three-down skillset and should be involved early, often in a Sean Payton offense. Throw Rachaad White at the Javonte Williams manager, and you can get another player on top and ride into your fantasy championship sunset.”
– Marco Enriquez (FantasyPros)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
“My favorite buy-low all offseason has been Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He’s still not valued properly and has a very real opportunity to finish firmly in the WR2 range in 2024. Of course, his future is much brighter than a WR2, so I’m betting on his continued development while finally being used properly under new OC Ryan Grubb. A new offense is exactly what JSN needs to shake off his criminal 6.1-yard Average Depth of Target (aDoT) from his rookie season. An elite separator by all metrics, improved opportunity, and usage will lead to improved fantasy production for JSN this season and beyond. I’d send a backend 1st as a contender or a player like Josh Jacobs if I’m a pretender to acquire him before the season starts.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Tank Dell (WR – HOU)
“I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in Houston, but Tank Dell’s ADP this preseason has made him a great buy-low candidate. He looked great in just a few plays this preseason, proving that he is 100% healthy to start the regular season. With his big play ability, Dell has high-ceiling potential that’s worth having on your roster. I would be more than willing to trade a running back who may not have as high as a ceiling, someone like Rhamondre Stevenson or D’Andre Swift.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
James Cook (RB – BUF)
“Buy low on Buffalo running back James Cook. He is going off the board as RB13, 32nd overall, and should easily finish as a top 5 running back in 2024. Cook could easily finish the season as a top 3 back in overall touches, with the Bills lacking any proven offensive weapons. Devon Achane, Isiah Pacheco, and Kyren Williams are all running backs I’m not entirely bought in on and would be willing to give up to acquire Cook. If you want to look at a cross-position trade, I would be willing to give up Chris Olave, Brandon Aiyuk, or Nico Collins. If you’re in a dynasty league, I would easily give a first-round pick for him.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Zack Moss (RB – CIN) | Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL)
“Zack Moss and Rico Dowdle can both skyrocket in value after Week 1. Due to the ambiguous nature of these backfields, both backs have maintained a very reasonable price throughout the offseason. However, these backs appear to be atop their team’s depth charts going into the season. With both offenses projected to be top-5 in the league, if these guys come out and get 20+ touches, they would have been drafted in the first four rounds. I’d be willing to trade away Jaylen Warren or Rhamondre Stevenson for either of these two. ”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
“One of my favorite buy lows right now is running back Najee Harris. The former first-round pick is getting heat because people like the explosive aspect that his teammate Jaylen Warren brings. However, Harris has yet to have a season with less than 250 rushing attempts, and now, with a new OC that loves to run, I do not see him having his first season below 250 attempts. Harris does have juice left in his tank and could have his best season yet in a contract year. I would try to send a late second or early third for him, plus David Montgomery or Raheem Mostert. Both Montgomery and Mostert gain points by their touchdown efficiency, so I would rather have the upside in rushing attempts plus the ability to score rather than just the ability to score.”
– Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)
Trenton Simpson (LB – BAL)
“For me, in IDP, it has to be Trenton Simpson, looking like the clear LB2 with huge snap counts upcoming due to the vacancy left by Patrick Queen. This defense is productive for linebackers (Queen had 133 tackles as LB2 here). You could grab him later because his ADP is depressed. This is why it is fun playing in IDP league if you can catch players before the breakout or at least buy low on them.”
– Steve Hungarter (Fantasy Six Pack)
Week 1 Trade Candidates: Sell High
Who is your favorite sell-high candidate heading into the season, and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
“If any manager can somehow get out of Ezekiel Elliott, it might be a solid idea. The Cowboys’ backfield looks to be one big mess heading into 2024, and while Zeke should see work, he does not carry the immense upside he once had. Rico Dowdle is probably the Cowboys running back with the highest upside, but that is capped a bit with Elliott and new addition Dalvin Cook to the fold. If Elliott could be sold on name value or on hype as the Cowboys starting running back to get a name such as Chuba Hubbard, Gus Edwards, or Blake Corum, that would be a solid sell.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
“When it comes to selling high, few players are ranked as high as WR Justin Jefferson, whose current ADP is WR4. And with good reason: Jefferson has produced monster stats for drafters the last few seasons. However, Jefferson lost his quarterback, Kirk Cousins, to free agency, and now, Sam Darnold is throwing him the rock. You remember the same Sam Darnold who saw ghosts vs the Patriots? (*Note- the most TDs Darnold has ever thrown in a season is 19!). Add in the fact that rookie J.J. McCarthy is out for the season, along with Minnesota having one of the toughest schedules, and the Vikings’ offense could be terrifying for fantasy owners in 2024. The only thing scarier is hearing another one of Mark Ringo’s terrible jokes, haha. WHO WOULD YOU TRY TO GET IN RETURN? Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, Saquon Barkley, or possibly a combination like Kyle Pitts and Deebo Samuel.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI)
“Jalen Hurts is a top quarterback in the NFL and fantasy! He has taken the Eagles offense to the next level, but he is a great sell-high candidate because of the signing of Saquon Barkley. Hurts’ strength that sets him above most quarterbacks is his rushing touchdowns. With Barkley in town, those will go down immensely (or should to keep Hurts from taking unnecessary hits). Hurts will still be a QB1 in fantasy with his passing prowess, but owners can vastly improve their team by trading him for a Jordan Love/Jared Goff volume quarterback and an RB2 in the realm of Joe Mixon or Alvin Kamara (which would be a steal).”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Stefon Diggs (WR – HOU)
“Stefon Diggs was on my do-not-draft list, especially at his fourth-round ADP. The veteran has had late-season struggles in back-to-back years. He was the WR47 over the final eight games last season, averaging only 7.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game and 0.41 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Diggs won’t see the 27.5% target share and 28% target per route run rate he had in 2023 this year with Houston. Unless C.J. Stroud has a Peyton Manning MVP season-like year, the veteran won’t be a top-30 wide receiver. Fantasy players should happily swap Diggs for Jonathon Brooks, especially if they lack upside at the running back position.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“A player I love more for NFL purposes than I do in fantasy football is Chris Olave. Olave is a great tier-down option in a trade this season. The Saints’ offense is not one I want to be buying pieces of in most cases. Derek Carr provides very little to get excited about, and the offense may find itself stalling out more often than not. Olave isn’t too overpriced, but tiering down to Malik Nabers and someone like Austin Ekeler can provide you with more upside and a very similar floor while adding depth to your roster.”
– Marco Enriquez (FantasyPros)
Jameson Williams (WR – DET)
“I’ve been trying to sell Jameson Williams everywhere I can this offseason, and it’s still a risky proposition, but it’s absolutely the right move. Jamo could go off this season, no doubt, but what’s more likely is that there are already too many mouths to feed in Detroit, and Williams is, at best, the team’s fourth target behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs. As a talented deep-threat option, a healthy and dynamic Williams is an excellent addition to the Lions’ offense, but he might only offer sporadic production to your fantasy squad. If you can get a 1st round pick or a player along the lines of Chris Godwin or Tyjae Spears, I’d pull the trigger and ship Jamo off. ”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
“I’m not the biggest D’Andre Swift believer after being on his third team in three years. I wouldn’t be surprised if Khalil Herbert ends up splitting half the carries with Swift within the first half of the season. I would be trying to sell him for a wide receiver like Chris Godwin or Diontae Johnson with a higher floor. Or I’d go for a player like Xavier Worthy who has a higher ceiling.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)
“As I’ve said all offseason, I’m selling Kyren Williams. His low draft capital, a potentially terrible Rams offensive line, and the addition of Blake Corum make for a hat-trick of bad news for last season’s breakout fantasy star. I don’t expect Williams to be an outright bust, he just can’t reach his ADP of RB8, 17th overall. As I said above, I feel better having James Cook than Williams, and I would also be willing to trade him for Josh Jacobs or Derrick Henry. As far as receivers are concerned, I would trade Williams away to acquire Davante Adams or Drake London, both of which are lower in ADP.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Football Universe)
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)
“Much like groceries, inflation has not been kind to Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco is almost guaranteed a decent fantasy season; however, the recent signing of Samaje Perine and the preseason breakout of Carson Steele concerns me. I see the potential for Perine to be used in passing situations and Steele to be used near the goal line. If either of those possibilities comes to fruition, he is not worth his ADP directly behind Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams. As a result, I would bifurcate into Rachaad White (a less appealing name that should see similar fantasy production) and the upside potential of a rookie (e.g., Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell). That’s a deal that could be easily completed in home leagues due to the initial face value downgrade while being a savvy manager thinking two steps ahead.”
– Ellis Johnson (RotoBaller)
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
“Puka Nacua is my favorite sell high. Will he be a focus in the offense? Yes. But last season, it was the best we have ever seen from a rookie. Cooper Kupp seems to be healthy heading into the season, and the Rams added an RB in Blake Corum, which will help keep Kyren Williams fresh throughout the season. Nacua should have another good season, but I do not know if finishing in the top 5 will happen again. Sell him off his rookie season before the season begins. Because of his finish, it is possible one could gain a first-round pick, plus a Zay Flowers or Tank Dell. Flowers has less competition to deal with in the passing game. Dell does have the competition, but his QB loves him, and in minimal games last season, Dell showed he can gain points in bunches.”
– Miguel ‘SC’ Romero (Fantasy Football Universe)
Kwity Paye (DE – IND)
“For IDP it’s Kwity Paye, who is coming off a career season where he recorded 8.5 sacks, that’s average but the team was expected more. Moving on, this team now has a lot of interesting pieces and rookies to make an impact on, so I would like to get off this player while he is still relevant.”
– Steve Hungarter (Fantasy Six Pack)
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