The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
Last week, this article identified Sam Darnold (QB9), Chuba Hubbard (RB4), Chris Olave (WR10) and Jake Ferguson (TE3) as value plays. While there were some misses (I am done with Zamir White for fantasy purposes), overall, it was a solid process last week.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 4 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) vs. WAS |$6,800 (DraftKings)
This certainly has all the makings of one of the more chalky selections at the quarterback position this week. However, the perceived value at the cost is too tantalizing to ignore. Thus far, Murray has been the QB15, QB1 and QB17, respectively, through the first three weeks of play. The absence of Trey McBride this week could reduce his overall ceiling but not nearly as much as many may suspect. Murray is still dangerous with his legs, averaging 53.6 rushing yards per game which only adds to his appeal.
The Commanders generously allow the most fantasy production to the position to start the season. Every quarterback they have faced this season has finished as QB6 or better and thrown for multiple touchdowns. This game also features one of the highest implied totals of any game on this slate.
Murray is a cash game value play with a high expected roster percentage. He is not a complete avoid in tournaments but is better suited to cash contests.
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU) vs. CAR | $7,800 (FanDuel)
Stroud enters week four as the QB16, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game. That big game from last year’s rookie phenom has yet to occur this season. By this time last season, Stroud had amassed 906 passing yards and four touchdowns to zero interceptions. This season, he has 709 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. The contrast is not as massive as some folks on social media are making it out to be.
The Jaguars are friendly to…well…everyone. Especially quarterbacks, as they allow the second-most fantasy points to the position. They are currently allowing an average of 263 passing yards and 1.7 passing touchdowns per game.
With options like Kyler Murray ($8,700) and Jayden Daniels ($8,200) being far more popular in cash game contests, think of Stroud as a usable contrarian cash game play and certainly usable in tournaments.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (RB – CIN) vs. CAR | $5,900 (DraftKings)
Moss has not been overly impressive to begin the season. In all honesty, the offense as a whole struggled through the first two games. Last week, however, Moss had his best fantasy outing of the season thus far, notching a 20.7 outing and an RB9 finish for the week. He is the lead back for an offense that can get spicy and appears to be meshing and finally catching their offensive stride. If only the Bengals had a juicy matchup…
Enter the Carolina Panthers from stage left. They have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to the position, including an average of 1.3 rushing yards per game. With Andy Dalton under center, the offense can move and potentially keep this game as a back-and-forth affair. Between an enticing matchup and the still very reasonable salary, Moss is set to continue on the path of production as a slight discount.
Moss fits better into tournament lineups as there are some good volume options for a little more money.
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI) vs. LAR | $5,500 (FanDuel)
This one might be a little deeper than some DFS players want to go. In the Bears’ last game, Johnson accumulated 62 scrimmage yards on just 12 touches. By far the most impressive asset out of the backfield from Chicago. D’Andre Swift has been nothing short of disappointing at the start of this season. Johnson played 37% of the offensive snaps last week and saw five targets. His three-down skillset is more enticing for this backfield than anything we have seen from Swift this season and Khalil Herbert doesn’t factor much in the receiving aspect of the offense.
The Rams allow the second-most fantasy points to running backs. They’re surrendering an average of 135 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown and 20.7 receiving yards to the position. The Bears offense showed signs of life last week, with Caleb Williams (finally) throwing his first two touchdowns. Seeing Johnson get involved and outperform Swift just makes this one risky enough to throw into the mix.
Johnson should be avoided in cash games and best utilized in multi-lineup tournaments. His modest salary allows for some roster flexibility.
Wide Receivers
Chris Godwin (WR – TB) vs. PHI | $6,800 (DraftKings)
Moving primarily to the slot has benefited both Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin. The latter is currently the WR3 in PPR scoring formats. He has seen at least eight targets and scored in all three games. He is averaging 84.3 receiving yards on a per-game basis.
Only the Washington Commanders have allowed more touchdowns to the wide receiver position than the Eagles this season. They are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and an average of 1.7 receiving touchdowns.
Godwin is $200 cheaper than his counterpart, Mike Evans, despite nearly doubling him in fantasy points per game. This matchup features a 42.5 over/under and could have shootout potential. At cost, Godwin is still a good value and can be used in both cash and tournament contests this week.
Darnell Mooney (WR – ATL) vs. NO | $5,700 (FanDuel)
Through the first three games, Darnell Mooney leads the Falcons offense in receiving yards (169), is second in targets (18), and is tied with Drake London for first downs with seven. He also leads the team in yards per reception with 14.1. Mooney has always been a very capable receiver but has taken a back seat in name value on an offense featuring London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson.
The Saints have played some very efficient football this season, allowing the 13th fewest fantasy points to receivers. However, there may be more under the surface of that small sample size. In Week 1, they limited Bryce Young…or he limited himself. Jalen Tolbert tallied 82 yards behind CeeDee Lamb in Week 2. Sans A.J. Brown, both DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert had good days last week. If the defensive focus is on London, Pitts and Robinson, Mooney has some definite tournament appeal.
Mooney is long-shot for cash games, but an intriguing option for tournament contests.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers (TE – LV) vs. CLE | $5,600 (DraftKings)
If we are being honest, the tight end position has been more disappointing for fantasy than trying to rewatch Knight Rider after fond memories as a kid. But, I digress. Tight end scoring has been down along with QB scoring this season. The options have become either pay up for one of the top tier options or almost entirely punt the position. That being said, let’s look at a pay-up option that has appeal in this game.
Bowers is the current TE2 on the season, despite not having notched a touchdown yet. There are a couple of factors that make Bowers worth the salary. First, he is tied for the league lead in targets through the first three weeks and is second in receiving yards. Second, the Raiders have moved him around the formation more like they would utilize a versatile wide receiver. And third, Davante Adams has already been ruled out due to injury. Bowers will have the target share to match his salary.
The Browns have been stingy, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points to the position. This is where the versatility of deployment comes into play.
This week, no one can be faulted for punting and paying down at the position to make room for salary elsewhere. However, for those willing to pay a little more, Bowers has appeal in both cash and tournaments.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) vs. BAL | $6,100 (FanDuel)
We are sticking with the pay-up motif with the position for this slate. Josh Allen has been adept at distributing the targets this season, leaving the second-year tight end with just a 15% target share. He has averaged 10.6 yards per reception and brought down his first score last week.
This week, the matchup makes the salary a little more enticing. The Ravens are allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position. On a per-game basis, they’re surrendering 93.3 yards to tight ends. They have also allowed the second-most targets and yards.
The matchup is good, making the salary a little more palpable. Kincaid sets up as more of a cash game option than a tournament expenditure.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
