The current week of DFS is always my favorite week of DFS. The slate is clean, we are not forced to deal with our draft day mistakes. It is all about honing in on where the value players are and which ones to slot in.
Last week, this article highlighted players like Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride as values at their salary costs.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some key players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
NFL Week 3 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr (QB – NO) vs. PHI | $5,800 (DraftKings)
Through the first two weeks of the season, Derek Carr is the QB2 for fantasy scoring. What is interesting about this is that it is not based on volume. Thus far, he is the QB13 in passing yards but tied with Baker Mayfield for the league lead in passing touchdowns. He has built his throne on efficiency and is currently supporting a 76.9% completion rate. He is also leading the league in yards per attempt, passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback.
Honestly, we are all still adjusting to these facts.
This week, the Saints face the Eagles, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Through the first two weeks, the Eagles have allowed 501 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Meanwhile, Carr is averaging 2.5 passing touchdowns per game.
Carr has been extremely efficient and the salary cost on DraftKings has not fully caught up yet. Therefore, at cost, he is in play for both cash and tournaments for this slate.
Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) vs. HOU $7,100 (FanDuel)
Just one season ago, Sam Darnold led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Throughout his career, we have seen his ups and downs and his apparent visual ability to recognize astral figures. We won’t even bother to bring up the Mono thing…
The Texans have a good, deep offense which bodes well for some back-and-forth scoring opportunities. Through two weeks, they’re allowing the 14th-most fantasy points to the position and the 13th-most to receivers. However, they’ve faced Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams. Darnold is not the same athlete as those two, but has enough experience in the NFL that if given a little bit of time from his offensive line, he can make solid decisions.
Darnold has impressed early this season, which we have seen before. With this games expected to offer shootout potential, he is on the GPP radar, but should probably be avoided in cash contests.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) vs. LV $5,200 (DraftKings)
If using analogies, the Carolina Panthers offense is just like the Microsoft Zune, a massive disappointment. All the parts and features exist but are executed poorly. Just like the Zune, a cheaper price point exists, just like the positional players are cheaper in all fantasy football formats. However, there is a new facet to this offense that could spark some value. As much as it is awkward to say, veteran Andy Dalton could breathe new life into this offense.
Assuming competent play, which the Red Rifle has provided over his career, the offense has some glimmers of value that benefit the DFS world. Dalton can move an offense, throw downfield, and has a career completion percentage of 62.5%. If the offense can move, then volume and scoring opportunities increase. An immediate beneficiary of this change is Chuba Hubbard, who has performed better in every running back metric than his counterpart Miles Sanders.
The Raiders allow the 10th-most fantasy points to the running back position. They allowed 135 rushing yards to J.K. Dobbins in week one, and a combined 106 rushing yards in week two to the combo of Derrick Henry and Justice Hill. Hubbard saw five targets last week, which ices the PPR cake.
Hubbard is a flex play this week, primarily in tournament contests.
Zamir White (RB – LV) vs. CAR $6,000 (FanDuel)
To be perfectly honest, Zamir White was a redraft/dynasty/best ball fade for me this season. His value was based on a short run of high volume last season that was difficult to trust. However, that does not mean he cannot be useful in a DFS environment where reliance is limited to a single game. Thus far, he is the RB45 in PPR scoring formats. None of this seems encouraging thus far, but hang out for a few more sentences.
The Panthers are an enticing matchup, allowing the third-most fantasy points to running backs. They’ve allowed three rushing touchdowns over two weeks. At this point, Forrest Gump could score on them, and no one would be surprised.
White might not have the volume we expected from his short stretch last season, but the Raiders would be wise to simply feed him if they’re ahead. This play is based more on touchdown upside than absolute volume, making him more of a GPP option than cash game.
If White can’t get it done in this game, he should be banished from redraft rosters.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) vs. LAR $6,200 (DraftKings)
Volume is the spice of the DFS buffet and Aiyuk is set to eat. Deebo Samuel is going to be out the next couple of weeks and George Kittle has also been ruled out for this contest. With their normal plethora of receiving weapons (also including Christian McCaffrey) this offense is typically harder to predict. The current list of injuries skinnies the target tree to some degree.
The matchup also happens to be enticing. The Rams are currently allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to receivers. In week one, they allowed 121 yards and a score to Jameson Williams. In week two, they surrendered 130 yards and two touchdowns to Marvin Harrison Jr. Aiyuk is also capable of stretching the field but now gets a little more volume along with the expected extra defensive attention.
Aiyuk works well in cash games but can also be used in GPPs. For those with a lot of exposure who want an upside pivot at cost, Juan Jennings is $4,100.
Chris Olave (WR – NO) vs. PHI $6,700 (FanDuel)
Rashid Shaheed has stolen the proverbial show in New Orleans this season. His long, flashy touchdowns have been known to cause excitement, hot flashes, slack jaw, and women to swoon. It’s an epidemic for which there should be a cure. The cure: an honest matchup. In week one, the Saints demolished the Dallas defense. Last week against Carolina, they barely had to work, with Derek Carr only throwing the ball 16 times.
The Eagles can and will score, forcing Carr to drop back a few more times. In a more back-and-forth matchup, Carr will have to up the attempts and, therefore, the targets to Olave. Despite the slow start, Olave is still tied for the second-most targets on the team. In a game that could feature actual opposing scoring potential, expect more targets for Olave.
Olave comes in at a discount based on his quiet start. He can used in both cash and GPP contests with the confidence of increased volume this week.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU) vs. MIN $4,300 (DraftKings)
There are not a lot of eye-popping numbers to go along with Schultz through the first two weeks. And, let’s face it, the tight end position has been hit or miss with a lot more miss than hit to start the season. However, there is some potential for Schultz in this game.
Firstly, the Vikings are currently allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position. For those following the position, that means that a tight end scored against them at some point. Brevin Jordan has been added to the injured reserve list, clearing the way for a couple more targets. With defenses focused on how to slow down Stefon Diggs and/or Nico Collins, Schultz could emerge as the man to target over the middle.
With the lack of trust for the position, Schultz enters this contest in a favorable matchup, a possible bump in targets, and a low rostered percentage. He is a GPP player this week, which allows for a little more salary to be allocated elsewhere.
Jake Ferguson (TE – DAL) vs. BAL $5,400 (FanDuel)
Admittedly, it has been a slow start for the Cowboys tight end. He sat out last week with a knee injury but is not on the injury report for this week.
Thus far, the Cowboys retain their full complement of pass catchers, with CeeDee Lamb leading the way. Last week, it was Jalen Tolbert picking up the slack due to Ferguson’s absence.
The Ravens are currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Ferguson will have less defensive attention than Lamb or even Brandin Cooks, which is part of why Tolbert logged the best stat-line of his career last week.
Ferguson is more of a GPP target with the hopes of a score than a cash game option. But, the matchup is good and he carries no injury designation this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
