It sure doesn’t feel like autumn here. My thighs still stick to the leather seats in my old crossover and the yellow jackets still swarm the garden spigot with unparalleled meanness. Football season is imminent. I know because I’ve already popped corn and settled into the broken-in cushion on the couch to binge-watch college games.

When I drive by the local high school on my way home from work, helmets with shiny new stickers glisten as the athletes run agility drills and practice their read-option mesh points. It is glorious. The summer heat will eventually recede in sunny California, but I’ll have already been sweating projections and rankings for weeks by then. Funny how my tan lines aren’t as defined since taking up fantasy football analysis.

Fantasy football doesn’t touch grass or run stadium steps like the real thing, but the buzzing excitement has reached a tooth-loosening temblor this week for us make-believers. Stats don’t count in camp. The preseason has wrapped and final severances made.

Week 1 kicks off with a rowdy scream on Thursday and continues on Friday from the southern hemisphere and on into Sunday and Monday night. I found it very difficult to narrow my scope of favorite storylines entering the 2024 campaign. There are so many riveting plot points that it puts my neurodivergence into a tizzy. Alas, these are the most important NFL storylines in the world of fantasy football for Week 1.

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Top Week 1 Storylines

Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me

That’s right, I swore up and down the Chiefs couldn’t win without Tyreek Hill in 2022. I scoffed when they trotted out an even weaker roster last season and freaking did it again. “Fool me three times, (bleep) the peace signs, load the chopper let it rain on you.”

The Chiefs are probably going to push really hard for a three-peat in what I’m imagining will be a “redemption” season for Patrick Mahomes‘ fantasy production. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the best receiving corps in the post-Cheetah era in Kansas City. Marquise Brown is scary good when healthy and Xavier Worthy is a bona fide freak. Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco are still here and will be very heavily involved in the Andy Reid gambit.

The champs embark on that quest Thursday night against the team that rightfully should have toppled them last winter. Baltimore had a brain-dead game plan that cost them dearly in that game, so the chip on their shoulder heading into Arrowhead will be jagged.

NFL MVP Lamar Jackson was not great on the stat sheet either last year, mostly due to his entire weaponry falling victim to the injury bug. Enter a newly healthy Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, along with a good offensive line and, oh yes, Derrick Henry. Derrick bleepity bleeping Henry is not from this earth, nor is he going to be wallowing in a tediously predictable Tennessee offense anymore. Fade due to ageism at your own risk. The King has regained the light in his face like Theoden in “The Lord of the Rings.”

Don’t Get Jiu-Jitsu’d

Speaking of football weather, it’s late winter in Brazil. I’m not sure if the toilets flush the opposite direction, but NFL football will be live from Sao Paulo, Brazil on Friday night with a marquee matchup between NFC heavyweights. The Eagles and Packers each have a ton of fantasy firepower and only figure to be modestly strong on defense. I am unreasonably excited about this game.

My Brazilian friends have completely lost their minds with hysteria. Jalen Hurts might not need the “Brotherly Shove” with Saquon Barkley next to him. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith form the nastiest (and most predictably concentrated) WR one-two punch in the game.

Green Bay’s offense might be even better than Philly’s, but they’re almost too deep to predict for fantasy. Jordan Love was thought to be a complete waste of a first-round pick but now could very well push to be a fantasy MVP. Josh Jacobs is in a prime position to be a bell-cow back again, except for a good team. At WR, you can probably roster as many as six Packers in deeper leagues.

Jayden Reed is a do-it-all technician, while Christian Watson has allegedly figured out the hamstring issue that has robbed him of even more gargantuan, slate-breaking performances. Dontayvion Wicks is a well-rounded big man on the perimeter, with Romeo Doubs acting as Love’s favorite big play threat down the rail. Don’t forget about Bo Melton and Malik Heath. Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft also run routes for Matt LaFleur. Did I mention the Eagles’ secondary is likely to be terrible again? The fine folks in Brazil are in for a treat.

Potential Can Get You Fired

The fantasy football community might never know a greater archenemy than Arthur Smith. When life gives you lemons… well, you know. Life has given Arthur Smith delicious lemonade and he’s consistently turned it into cat urine. I don’t want to roster any Steelers offensive players this year. Some of it is from spite and sheer, unfiltered vitriol from his three horrendous seasons in Atlanta.

All that unrealized potential finally got Artie axed, but he landed softly on his feet as the offensive coordinator for a team that hasn’t lost in nearly two decades. Pittsburgh suffered under Matt Canada for a long time, so I guess the bar is really low for Russell Wilson and Co.

Raheem Morris looks like a sparkling prince in the ATL, compared to his predecessor. His offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, hails from the incredibly talented and successful Sean McVay innovation factory. The paradox of this Week 1 matchup is nearly incalculable. I can’t wait for a real coaching staff to run up the score on Smith like the Saints did in Week 18 to put the nail in Art’s coffin. I need it to happen.

Kirk Cousins is a facilitator. Bijan Robinson is the second coming of LaDainian Tomlinson and should be fed as such. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are a freaking basketball team, for crying out loud. The fact Smith’s Falcons never scored more than 30 points in regulation makes me want the Dirty Birds to drop a 50-burger on Sunday. The fantasy football world at large can feel it in their aching loins.

Saltwater Taffy on Old Wounds

Pepperidge Farm remembers when the 49ers eschewed homegrown talent Aaron Rodgers in favor of Alex Smith with the first overall pick. Smith was a fine player, but Rodgers is destined for enshrinement in Canton. He never forgot that disrespect from the team he grew up supporting. Fast forward to last season, Rodgers entered a new chapter with the Jets after a football lifetime in Green Bay. It was fraught with promise and anticipation but snuffed on the Meadowlands turf on the fourth play of the season.

He will jog through the tunnel for Gang Green again this season, this time at Levi’s Stadium on Monday night. The Achilles is healed. New York has renewed excitement around their nasty defense and offensive superstars, though the fanbase still keeps their jaded past in their front pocket. Breece Hall is a favorite to usurp Christian McCaffrey as RB1. Garrett Wilson proved himself impervious to poor QB play and has his captain gunslinger back in the huddle. They are the road dogs to watch in primetime.

San Francisco lost the Super Bowl again. Their spring and summer were tumultuous, teeming with contract disputes and responding to unanswerable questions. Can they get back to the pinnacle in the rugged NFC? Is their championship window closed? Will Kyle Shanahan ever win the big one? 2024 is the last year where Brock Purdy plays the pauper and cap savior. Christian McCaffrey is the ultimate weapon, but how long can he keep at it in good health?

The defense is down Dre Greenlaw and bid farewell to their anchor in the trenches, Arik Armstead. Brandon Aiyuk is staying home, while Deebo Samuel‘s role is more in flux than people realize. The great news is Trent Williams is back. The 49ers are simply not even a playoff team without him. The heartbeat of this team is George Kittle, whom I consider one of the best values in fantasy this season. It’s put up or shut up time for the John Lynch-Kyle Shanahan regime. Let’s hope they don’t show up hung over with the NorCal kid in town on business.