Just like that, fantasy point-scoring football is back. Drafts are complete, rosters are scrutinized and DFS is a juicy way to live week-to-week for the degenerates among us, humble writers included.
In the kickoff weekend, we have a 12-game slate that has a lot of options without all the seasonal analytics to narrow things down a bit.
Let’s break down the best NFL DFS value plays for NFL Week 1.
NFL Week 1 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get down to business.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) vs. WAS | $5,600 (DraftKings)
Not the way many readers may have wanted this weekly article to start, but hear me out before you ALT+F4. Baker Mayfield completed his first season in Tampa Bay by notching his first 4,000-yard passing season and the most passing touchdowns (28) of his career. His surrounding cast remains mostly unchanged regarding his big-name producers such as Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rachaad White. A career revival is in progress from the former number-one overall draft selection.
Washington’s pass defense may have improved since last season, but what is that saying? They were in the discussion for the worst pass defense in the league and allowed the most fantasy points to the quarterback position. So, if they now allow the second-most, that remains a net gain for the quarterbacks facing them.
Is Mayfield a sexy pick for the slate? No. But, he is a value based on the matchup, the weapons at his disposal and the resurgence we saw from his game last season. This is far more of a GPP tournament play than a cash game play this week. For those who deploy multiple lineups, Mayfield should be in a few and can be easily stacked based on his salary.
Justin Fields (QB – PIT) vs. ATL | $6,900 (FanDuel)
This play is entirely dependent on Russell Wilson‘s availability. At the time of this writing/re-writing, Wilson is questionable with a calf injury of some degree. While reports are saying he is traveling with the team, his status is still murky, at best. This puts Justin Fields firmly on the DFS radar. While not a great quarterback for real-life football, he amplifies fantasy points with what he is capable of with his legs.
Fields had six top-10 QB finishes last season in the 13 games he played. In those games, he averaged 197 passing yards, 1.23 passing touchdowns, 50.5 rushing yards and 0.3 rushing touchdowns per game last season.
On top of the upside, the Falcons surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season. In their lone matchup last season, Fields accumulated 268 passing yards, one passing touchdown, 45 receiving yards and another score on the ground.
If Wilson can’t go, Fields is a solid start with top-10 upside in a good matchup best used in tournaments.
Running Backs
Ken Walker (RB – SEA) vs. DEN | $6,100 (DraftKings)
Despite a slightly disappointing sophomore campaign, Ken Walker remains the type of weekly high-upside potential coveted by DFS players. He is not a plodder or touchdown dependant as he can rip one off on any carry. In 15 games last season, he had four RB1 finishes, including an overall RB3 finish in week three. While not reliant on volume as much as explosive plays, he averaged 14.6 carries per game last season. With Zach Charbonnet hampered by an injury, he could see more work in Week 1.
While too early in the season to grade fantasy points allowed by defenses, it is worth noting the Broncos allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position last season.
Walker can be confidently used in cash games and sparingly used in GPPs based on an expected 10-20% rostership. His salary is the 12th-highest for this slate, but he also happens to offer limited PPR appeal after seeing 37 targets last season.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) vs. SEA | $6,100 (FanDuel)
Yes, this week features opposing running backs as potential values for DFS contests.
The social media experience for Javonte Williams was a roller coaster heading into preseason games. At one point rumors swirled about him potentially not making the roster cut, which was silly. That said, last season was far from a marquee of his talent and importance to this roster. However, he is a full season removed from the knee injury that cut his sophomore season short.
To get the season started on the right foot, the Seahawks allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position last season. On a per-game basis, they surrendered 1.1 rushing touchdowns and 24.3 fantasy points to running backs.
Williams is a strong cash game option. His counterpart, Jaleel McLaughlin ($5000), is a good pivot for tournaments that allows more roster flexibility.
Check our full cash game and GPP picks.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX) vs. MIA | $5,500 (DraftKings)
Christian Kirk is looking to pick up right where he left off last season, by maintaining an above 20% target share as the first read in this passing offense. In five of his 12 games played last season, Kirk was a WR2 or better for fantasy, narrowly missing this mark in two others.
The Dolphins were susceptible to allowing points to slot receivers last season, which sets up well for how Kirk is often deployed. Overall, the Dolphins allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers last season.
Kirk can be used in both cash and tournaments but is more favored in tournaments where his roster percentage is projected to be in the 1-5% range. While he most likely does not fit the mold of a top-12 receiver this week, it is not entirely out of the range of possibility. He slots in as a mid-range WR2 to provide a stable floor for rosters while also providing potential upside in a favorable matchup.
Andrei Iosivas (WR – CIN) vs. NE | $5,000 (FanDuel)
At the time of this writing, Tee Higgins has been listed as doubtful. Ja’Marr Chase is listed as questionable and has had little practice up to this point. Andrei Iosivas was already expected to slide into the Tyler Boyd role in three-wide receiver sets. Now, he has an opportunity to expand his role and operate as one of the Bengals’ top targets.
The Patriots were a middle-of-the-road pass defense last season. With Burrow healthy and back under center the matchup is far less intimidating.
Iosivas is a tournament play best utilized for players who roll out multiple lineups. With an expected rostership of 10-20%, he is far more suited to that role than in cash contests or single-game entries.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS) vs. TB | $3,600 (DraftKings)
This is a complete punt play that works on a couple of different levels. First of all, this may be the healthiest the 33-year-old journeyman tight end will be all season. It just so happens to occur against a defense that was previously susceptible to the position. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the fourth-highest fantasy points to the tight end position. Yes, it is recognized that many players are already clamoring for Ben Sinnott, and rightfully so. However, there is typically an acclimation period for the position and Zach Ertz has enough experience under his belt to easily slide into his assignments.
The matchup is good. Ertz has a track record of success. Finally, his salary allows for flexibility at other positions. Ertz is best suited for GPP contests and players who are using multiple lineups.
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) vs. SEA | $4,600 (FanDuel)
Last season’s injuries for Greg Dulcich marred the success of his rookie campaign. He was a big play waiting to happen as a rookie and remains capable of being lined up across the formation. With a rookie quarterback, there are certainly reasons to steer clear until we see how he is deployed. That being said, he is the type of movable chess piece that can make some noise on the main slate as that one-off piece of a lineup.
The Seahawks allowed the 13th-most fantasy points to tight ends. That might not be overly encouraging at first, but again, the positional flexibility on the field puts more reliance on that one or two big play possibility for the payoff.
Dulcich is the one-off player at the position in multiple lineup tournaments.
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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – which help you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
