As we turn the page on Week 3 of the fantasy football season, certain trends have emerged across the entirety of the NFL. Among them, the most glaring is the fact that NFL offenses have produced at a sub-par rate in 2024. Whether it’s due to a wave of injuries to offensive stars or the widespread use of the two high-safety defensive approach, teams have struggled to move the ball downfield. With that, many offensive coordinators have resorted to run-heavy and slow-paced schemes. This makes for low-scoring contests and disappointing output for fantasy managers.
As a result, many players have seen steep hits in perceived fantasy value. In what follows, I’ll highlight the most notable players whose struggles trickled over into Week 3. I’ll also assess their prospects at a potential breakout over the remainder of the 2024 fantasy football season.
Amidst the underwhelming league-wide production, there have been a few bright spots. In Week 3, several players delivered week-winning performances. Were these performances a mirage or a sign of things to come? Let’s take a closer look at who’s trending up and who’s trending down.
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NFL Players Trending Up & Down
Fantasy Football Risers
Heading into this season, there was no doubt about Diontae Johnson’s talent as a nuanced route-runner. He’s quietly been amongst the league’s most consistent target-earners since he was drafted in 2019. The reason for skepticism surrounding Johnson’s fantasy value was the Panthers’ lackluster offense. Through the first two weeks of the season, the skeptics appeared to be correct in their assessment. However, the appointment of veteran QB Andy Dalton has seemingly revitalized the Panthers offense.
Dalton put on a show during his inaugural start, earning a 123.6 passer rating as the Panthers scored 36 points against the Raiders. It’s important to recall that the Raiders held the Lamar Jackson-led Ravens’ offense in check for the majority of their matchup the week prior.
It became abundantly clear Dalton’s primary read was Johnson. The latter accumulated an impressive 14 targets, representing 37.8% of Dalton’s attempts.
Johnson’s target share will remain elite as the undeniable No. 1 WR in this uninspiring group of pass-catchers. Assuming Dalton can continue to run Dave Canales’ scheme effectively, Johnson will accumulate receptions and yardage at a high rate. He should be considered as a rock-solid Flex option when making fantasy start sit decisions, especially in PPR formats.
Dallas Goedert has consistently been a safety valve for Jalen Hurts throughout the young signal-caller’s career. While you can typically pencil him in for a couple chain-moving receptions, he’s never accumulated yardage at an incredibly high rate. In the Eagles’ offense, the explosive plays were typically reserved for the likes of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. For this reason, the Godert’s 10-catch, 170-yard performance was certainly eye-popping.
I’d typically write off Goedert’s career day as an anomaly. After all, he is the third receiving option in an offense that intends to run the ball at a high rate. That said, injuries to both Brown and Smith have made Goedert a focal point in the Eagles’ offense. While the extent of the aforementioned injuries remain unknown, Goedert is in line to earn a plethora of targets for at least a couple of weeks.
In a TE landscape that remains dire, Goedert is in line to produce at an incredibly high rate in the near future. He’s currently the primary receiving option in a high-powered offense. As long as the WR tandem of Smith and Brown remain sidelined, Goedert should be a top-five TE in fantasy football rankings.
Like Goedert, Jauan Jennings enjoyed the best performance of his career this weekend. The veteran accumulated an absurd 175 receiving yards and three touchdowns as the 49ers fell short to the Rams. With both Deebo Samuel and George Kittle battling injury, Jennings was expected to see an uptick in volume and production. That said, no one could have expected him to account for nearly 60% of the team’s yardage through the air.
What was perhaps most enticing about Jennings’ performance was the fact he out-targeted Brandon Aiyuk 12-10. Most managers expected Aiyuk to be the primary beneficiary of the injuries to the other pieces of this passing offense. However, Aiyuk’s early-season struggles continued as he amassed a disappointing 48 receiving yards. If Aiyuk’s ineffectiveness persists, Jennings will continue to produce at a high level.
At any rate, Jennings should continue to see plenty of targets with Kittle and Samuel sidelined. Kyle Shanahan’s offensive scheme is notorious for getting the most from its players. Expect Jennings to continue to provide Flex appeal in the coming weeks.
Fantasy Football Fallers
After three weeks of lackluster production, it’s officially panic time for Travis Kelce managers. He’s yet to hit the 40-yard mark or eclipse four receptions in a game this season. At this juncture, it appears Rashee Rice has taken over the role previously held by Kelce over the years. Rice continues to develop a rock-solid rapport with Mahomes as the zone-beating, yards-after-catch specialist in the Chiefs’ offense.
At 34 years of age, it’s become increasingly clear Kelce’s best years are behind him. His efficiency will continue to decline at a fairly steep rate. Now that the targets aren’t heading his way either, his fantasy value is quite dire.
The only silver lining is Kelce’s touchdown upside. While the veteran is yet to hit the end zone this season, he’s historically had a great connection with Mahomes around the goal line. We’ve seen plenty of players at his position continue to be true red-zone threats beyond their best years.
While Kelce’s struggles are certainly concerning, fantasy managers will have no choice but to continue starting him. The TE landscape has been a disaster in 2024 and there likely aren’t better options on the waiver wire. Kelce appears to be a shaky, touchdown-dependent fantasy asset for the foreseeable future.
The loss of franchise QB Tua Tagovailoa is bound to have a detrimental impact on the surrounding pass-catchers in the Miami offense. Early signs suggest Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy value will take the biggest hit. The latter managed a disappointing 26 receiving yards despite being in a positive game script throughout the Dolphins’ loss against the Seahawks.
With a backup QB under center, Mike McDaniel adopted an offensive scheme based on quick passes and yards after the catch. Waddle, whose production depends on making plays further downfield, figures to be an afterthought in this new system. The likes of De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill will inherit a larger workload.
Tagovailoa’s status for the remainder of the 2024 season remains ambiguous. There is no timeline for his return, causing concern for Waddle’s fantasy output. Managers should consider benching Waddle until we receive further clarification on the status of the QB position in Miami.
Rachaad White’s fantasy value has always been contingent on elite volume. Last season, White operated as the unquestioned No. 1 RB for the Buccaneers and provided great fantasy output as a result. However, the underlying metrics have continuously suggested White is among the league’s least efficient starting RBs. Now, those inefficiencies appear to be costing him a significant portion of his carries.
Rookie Bucky Irving has been very impressive thus far in his career. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s outperformed White in terms of rushing grade, yards after contact per attempt and missed tackles forced. In Week 3, Irving out-carried White 9-6. The Bucs seem to have grown impatient with White’s struggles and are giving more touches to the hot hand.
White’s saving grace has always been his pass-catching ability. To this end, he continues to play a key role in Tampa Bay’s offense. He’s surprisingly earned more receptions than Mike Evans through the first three weeks of the NFL season.
White’s target volume provides a relatively safe floor for fantasy managers. That said, he’ll continue to lose carries to Irving as the rookie grows more accustomed to the system. At this juncture, it’s clear White will not repeat his 2023 RB5 overall finish. He should be viewed as a low-end RB3 in the coming weeks.
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